지역통화협력의 정치경제: 이론과 동아시아의 경우

정진영(鄭璡永) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2006 신아세아 Vol.13 No.2

  동아시아 지역의 통화협력에 관한 논의의 결론은 거의 항상 협력이 필요하고 이를 위한 경제적 조건은 성숙했지만 정치적 조건이 갖추어지지 않았다는 것이다. 왜 이러한 결론에 도달하고 이러한 상황을 벗어날 길은 없는가? 이 글은 지역통화협력에 관한 기존의 경제학 이론들을 정치학적으로 해석함으로써 경제이론의 기계적 적용을 비판적으로 평가 한다. 유럽의 통화협력이 주는 교훈은 지역통화협력이 경제적 여건의 변화에 따른 정치적 선택의 변화를 통하여 가능하게 되었다는 것이다. 처음부터 경제적 조건이 성숙되어 통화 협력이 이루어지는 것이 아니라 경제적 환경과 정치적 선택의 상호작용의 산물이라는 사실이다. 이는 곧 동아시아 통화협력에 관한 정치적 비관론도 극복할 필요가 있음을 가르쳐 준다. 이러한 시각에서 볼 때 동아시아 지역의 통화질서는 자유변동환율제의 확대와 외환지원협력의 제도화가 중단기적으로 주요 흐름이 될 것이다. 그리고 보다 높은 수준의 지역통화협력인 환율협력과 통화통합의 방안은 역내무역의존도의 증가와 자본시장 및 외환시장의 자유화와 통합이 증대하면서 부각될 것이다. 따라서 동아시아 지역의 통화협력에 관한 지나친 비관도 금물이지만 지나친 낙관도 경계할 필요가 있다. 보다 현실적인 대외 통화정책이 요망된다.   Discussions on the subject of East Asian monetary cooperation almost always end with the same conclusion: East Asia is in need of regional monetary cooperation and has been endowed with favorable economic conditions for it but lacks the necessary political conditions. Why this is the case and how can we get out of this theoretical stalemate? As a way of answering this question, we reread the existing economic theories of regional monetary cooperation from a political science perspective and criticize the mechanistic application of them to a different regional context. Our understanding of the lesson from the European experience also leads us to avoid falling into the political pessimism. The process of regional monetary cooperation take a very long time during which the states" preferences are reformulated in accordance with changing national and regional economic conditions. East Asia has been undergoing this process. For the years to come, the dominant trend will be the move toward adopting free-floating exchange rates and institutionalizing a regional foreign exchange support mechanism. Though unrealistic for the time being, however, regional exchange rate cooperation or monetary union are not forgone scenarios for the future of East Asia. Nevertheless, it is not a prudent policy stance to pursue an unrealistic objective with regard to regional monetary cooperation, South Korea"s altitude towards East Asian economic cooperation in general and monetary cooperation in particular needs to be made realistic.

Financial and Monetary Cooperation in Asia: Challenges after the Global Financial Crisis

김소영,양두용 한국국제경제학회 2011 International Economic Journal Vol.25 No.4

This paper reviews recent developments in regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia, and suggests some issues that could contribute to more constructive development in the future. The regional monetary and financial cooperation was originally motivated by the Asian financial crisis, but it has faced new challenges due to some recent events, such as the global financial crisis and global imbalances. We review recent developments of regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia, such as CMIM, ABMI and ABF, and regional surveillance mechanisms. We argue that there are several issues to be discussed in developing more effective regional financial and monetary cooperation: including developing CMIM to be effective in preventing future crisis, linking regional cooperation with global financial architecture properly, constructing effective surveillance mechanism, and strengthening regional policy dialogue.

Effects of FRB’s Raising Interest Rates on Regional Currencies and Regional Monetary Cooperation: A Case of East Asia

Eiji Ogawa 한국APEC학회 2018 Journal of APEC Studies Vol.10 No.1

This paper bases on empirical results of Ogawa and Wang (2016) to investigate impacts of US interest rate hikes on East Asian currencies and to discuss an issue on directions of regional monetary and financial cooperation. A VAR model was used to make empirical analyses of effects of increases in interest rates in the United States on interest rates and exchange rates of East Asian currencies. We have important empirical results that East Asian countries without any capital controls would face both upward pressure on their domestic interest rates and depreciation of their home currencies when the FRB raises the interest rates. Moreover, we have an interesting result that a change in interest rates in the United States gave an asymmetric effect among East Asian currencies. Higher interest rates in the United States increase interest rates in emerging East Asian countries while interest rates in Japan are kept at a lower level. The widening interest differentials stimulate speculative carry trades to appreciate the emerging East Asian currencies against the Japanese yen. We discuss a regional monetary cooperation in order to mitigate these turbulences. Given that the FRB’s raising interest rates will give the turbulences to regional currencies, the monetary authorities of the regional countries should prepare for any crisis prevention by making surveillance over movements in interest rates and exchange rates as well as sudden changes in capital flows as well as crisis managements by establishing currency swap arrangements among the regional countries.

동아시아 통화통합의 현황과 실현가능성에 대한 연구

후카호리 스즈카(Fukahori Suzuka) 경북대학교 사회과학연구원 2011 사회과학 담론과 정책 Vol.4 No.2

본 논문에서는 현재 세계적으로 지역 통화동맹 설립 확산의 추세 속에서 동아시아에서 지역 통화통합이 가능한 것 인가를 논의한다. 구체적으로는 동아시아의 현황과 지역 통화 통합 이론에서 도출된 변수를 바탕으로 동아시아 통화통합을 예측하려고 하는 미래탐구(informed futurology)를 통해 동아시아가 지역 통화통합을 할 가능성, 즉 금융·통화 공동체 형성의 가능성이 얼마나 있는지, 그리고 지역 통화통합이라는 목표를 달성하기 위해 필요한 조건이 무엇인지를 밝히려고 한다. 그것을 위해 국가의 외교정책결정에 영향을 줄 국가의 의지(willingness)와 능력(capacity)에 초점을 맞추어 분석한다. 결론을 말하자면 동아시아의 지역 통화통합에 대해 두 가지를 지적할 수 있다. 하나는 아세안은 지역 경제통합에 대한 의지가 강하지만 그들이 한국, 중국, 일본을 포함한 동아시아의 공식 회의에서 낼 수 있는 목소리(voice)는 작고, 동아시아 전체를 끌어 갈 수 있는 힘이 없다는 것이다. 다른 하나는 한중일은 지역 경제협력에 대해서는 긍정적 입장을 취하고 있지만, 그것은 동아시아에 한정된 것보다는 G20이나 APEC이라는 틀에서 벗어나지 않은 열린 지역주의(Open Regionalism)를 추구하고 있다는 것이다. 요컨대 현재 통화통합에 관해서는 아세안+3 전체로서 하나의 합의가 없고 동북아 3개국과 아세안 간에는 지역 통화통합에 대한 선호의 격차가 존재하는 상황이다. 동아시아 공동통화 및 지역중앙은행 도입을 아세안+3라는 틀로 시작할 것이라면 이 격차를 조절할 필요가 있다. The major issue discussed in this paper is whether the establishment of regional monetary integration in East Asia is possible. This article applies a informed futurology approach and I focus on the willingness and states’ capacity for regional monetary integration. In conclusion, I pointed out two possible regional monetary integration in East Asia. First, while ASEAN has a strong will to regional economic integration, it has no capacity to lead the regional monetary integration. Second, Korea, China and Japan have taken a positive stance regarding regional economic cooperation, however, it is not limited in East Asia. They hold in a framework of the principle of Open Regionalism. In short, it need to narrow the gap of preference for regional monetary integration between ASEAN and Northeastern Asian countries in order to establish a monetary union in East Asia.

TOWARD REGIONAL FINANCIAL AND MONETARY COOPERATION IN EAST ASIA

Park, Young-Il 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2003 Global economic review Vol.32 No.4

The financial and economic crisis in 1997-98 came as a dramatic shock to East Asian economies, and has prompted to institutionalize a regional financial and monetary cooperation. This paper demonstrates the strong will of East Asian countries to develop the regional financial and monetary cooperation, outlines recent developments, and provides possible prospects for the future. It points out that the option to keep consistent with the IMF system actually weakens regional solidarity, and recommends an immediate establishment of a strong regional surveillance and peer pressure mechanism for the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to evolve into a common pool of foreign exchange reserves, a sort of East Asian IMF. It also argues that East Asian countries should closely coordinate their exchange rate regime to maintain intra-regional and extra-regional exchange rate stability.

Regional Monetary Cooperation in East Asia against Asymmetric Responses to the US Dollar Depreciation

EIJI OGAWA 한국경제연구학회 2004 Korea and the World Economy Vol.5 No.2

In this paper we consider a regional monetary cooperation in East Asia after we look at recent movements of exchange rates of East Asian currencies and exchange rate policies in East Asian countries. We regard that the recent movements of exchange rates have been related with their reactions to the US dollar depreciation that has been caused by the current account deficit of the United States and changes in capital flows between the United States and the rest of the world. We found that East Asian currencies were classified into at least two groups; one group’s currencies have been appreciated against the US dollar while the other’s currencies have been pegged to the US dollar. We stress coordination failure in exchange rate policies among East Asian countries that causes biased change in exchange rates among the intra-regional currencies. It is necessary to make regional coordination in exchange rate policies for a desirable exchange rate system in East Asia. At last, we suggest some policy recommendations related with regional cooperation in exchange rate policies in East Asia.

A Roadmap of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia: Some Lessons from the European Experience

( Hee Yul Chai ) 한국EU학회 2008 EU학연구 Vol.13 No.1

Finance ministers of Korea, China and Japan announced recently that they would take steps to introduce a common currency in East Asia. This news makes one to suspect that the monetary cooperation will become an important policy agenda in East Asia. This paper provides a reflection on the necessity, feasibility, and modality of East Asia`s monetary cooperation process. The paper starts with some preliminary but fundamental questions about monetary cooperation in East Asia. It is argued that, despite a number of obstacles, the time is ripe to pursue the monetary integration in East Asia. This paper proceeds to propose a roadmap of monetary cooperation in East Asia, from a loose cooperative stage with many symbolic actions and weak political commitment to the introduction of more formal and constraining institutions requiring stronger political commitment. The European experience provides a lot of lessons to East Asia`s monetary integration through its success and failure stories as well.

A Roadmap of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia: Some Lessons from the European Experience

채희율 한국EU학회 2008 EU학연구 Vol.13 No.1

Finance ministers of Korea, China and Japan announced recently that they would take steps to introduce a common currency in East Asia. This news makes one to suspect that the monetary cooperation will become an important policy agenda in East Asia. This paper provides a reflection on the necessity, feasibility, and modality of East Asia's monetary cooperation process. The paper starts with some preliminary but fundamental questions about monetary cooperation in East Asia. It is argued that, despite a number of obstacles, the time is ripe to pursue the monetary integration in East Asia. This paper proceeds to propose a roadmap of monetary cooperation in East Asia, from a loose cooperative stage with many symbolic actions and weak political commitment to the introduction of more formal and constraining institutions requiring stronger political commitment. The European experience provides a lot of lessons to East Asia's monetary integration through its success and failure stories as well.

Toward Regional Financial and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

( Young Il Park ) 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2003 Global economic review Vol.32 No.4

ASEAN+3국의 지역경제협력 및 통화통합의 효과분석

안경애(Kyung-Ae Ahn) 한국관세학회 2009 관세학회지 Vol.10 No.4

This paper is basically designed to investigate regional economic cooperation and monetary integration for ASEAN+3 countries based on the Gravity mode and panel data. Since the outbreak of the East Asia crisis in 1997, many of the East Asia countries consider seriously forming a common currency area and the Asian financial crisis highlighted the need for some form of institutional arrangement to prevent such crises, and to manage more effectively. We use gravity equation model to estimate trade effects of regional economic cooperation such as EU, NAFTA, ASEAN, ASEAN+3 FTA and analysis the effects in trade volume due to US dollar exchange rate volatility. Our findings indicate that the increased uncertainty of the exchange rate negatively affects the trade volume among ASEAN+3 countries.