새로운 “代案模型”의 開發은 왜 필요한가?

김호언(Gim, Ho-Un) 한국지역개발학회 2008 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.20 No.3

The Input-Output(IO) model and tables has been usefully used in many different areas of Economics since the model was first pioneered by W. W. Leontief in 1936. Recently Gim and Kim(2005, 2008) found out that there is no consecutive connection between the Leontief inverse C<SUP>f</SUP> and the total output x and that there are some limits to compute the impact effects for the initial change of output. The specific objectives of this paper are summarized as follows. ① We clarify the usefulness and limits which is embodied in the open static input-output model as an empirical study. ② We reexamine why the development of a new "alternative model" for the traditional Input-Output model is needed. ③ We propose the two alternative models named the Output-Output(OO) model and the Final demand-Final output(FF) model based on the merits and demerits of the model. We finally developed an Output-Output model on the basis of the concept of output requirements matrix for output C<SUP>g</SUP>, in comparison to the IO model. The newly developed OO model can be readily applied, for example, to the impact analysis for output advantageously and effectively without worrying about the consecutive connection and overestimation problems occurred in the net multiplier concept developed by Oosterhaven(2002).

“最終需要ㆍ最終産出 模型”과 經濟的 誘發效果에 관한 연구

金鎬彦(Gim Ho Un) 계명대학교 사회과학연구소 2010 한국사회과학연구 Vol.29 No.1

The Input-Output(IO) model is widely and extensively used in real-world applications and employed in a variety of different areas since it was developed by Wassily Leontief(1906-1999) in the early 1930s. Recently, Gim and Kim(2009) built an Output-Output(OO) model based on the concept of output requirements for output, in comparison to the ΙΟ model. The newly proposed OO model can be readily applied, for example, to the impact analysis for output advantageously and effectively without worrying about the consecutive connection and overestimation problems in the ΙΟ model. On the basis of the latest research results, the specific objectives of this paper can be summarized as follows. (1) We analyze the interdependence relationships between final demand ?, total output χ, and final output ο and compare the characteristics and usefulness of the models, such as ΙΟ model, ΟΟ model, and final demand-final output(FF) model, based on a new circulation system of production between variables(?, χ, ο). (2) We derive meaningful and important economic interpretations from the output requirements matrix for final demand of final output(Cg, Cf), resulting from the decomposition by factors in the Leontief inverse Cf, in the FF model newly developed by the author. (3) We propose the various cause-and-effect equations which can compute the economically induced effects through the relationships between cause and effect variables. By using the matrix CgCf which has the meaning of multi-sector multiplier, we can easily get many different types of the induced effect, which is necessary for solving economic problems and modeling real applications.

산업연관분석에서 새로운 “생산유발모형” 개발에 관한 연구: 최종수요, 총산출, 최종산출 사이의 생산순환체계를 중심으로

김호언 국토연구원 2008 국토연구 Vol.57 No.-

The authors proposed the complemented general relation between two different input requirements matrices [ ] and [ ] for final demand and output respectively and showed the decomposition of factors in the Leontief inverse [ ] which is also termed as the output requirements matrix for final demand(Gim and Kim, 1998, 2005). Moreover we introduced the general relation between the inverse matrix and the output requirements matrix for output [ ]. In this paper we first develop a new circulation system of production between final demand f, total output x, and final output o. Second, we derive an alternative output requirements model based on the output requirements matrix of output for final demand [ ][ ]. Third, we show the general interdependence among the variables f, x, and o and compare the characteristics of the models, such as input-output(IO) model, output-output(OO) model, and final demand-final output(FF) model. For the usefulness and validity of the final demand-final output model called a new output requirements model, an empirical analysis is performed on the requirements matrix [ ][ ], which has the meaning of multi-sector multiplier, in the 2003 Input-Output Tables of Korea to interpret the real meaning of newly defined multipliers and linkage coefficients. We hope that the newly developed FF model should be revised by the author through the following researches in the near future. The authors proposed the complemented general relation between two different input requirements matrices [ ] and [ ] for final demand and output respectively and showed the decomposition of factors in the Leontief inverse [ ] which is also termed as the output requirements matrix for final demand(Gim and Kim, 1998, 2005). Moreover we introduced the general relation between the inverse matrix and the output requirements matrix for output [ ]. In this paper we first develop a new circulation system of production between final demand f, total output x, and final output o. Second, we derive an alternative output requirements model based on the output requirements matrix of output for final demand [ ][ ]. Third, we show the general interdependence among the variables f, x, and o and compare the characteristics of the models, such as input-output(IO) model, output-output(OO) model, and final demand-final output(FF) model. For the usefulness and validity of the final demand-final output model called a new output requirements model, an empirical analysis is performed on the requirements matrix [ ][ ], which has the meaning of multi-sector multiplier, in the 2003 Input-Output Tables of Korea to interpret the real meaning of newly defined multipliers and linkage coefficients. We hope that the newly developed FF model should be revised by the author through the following researches in the near future.

최종산출(ō)과 최종산출(ο) 사이의 인과관계에 관한 비교 연구

金鎬彦(Gim, Ho Un) 계명대학교 사회과학연구소 2013 한국사회과학연구 Vol.32 No.1

Recently, based on the latest research findings and results from the models of output-output(OO) and final demand-final output(FF) between final output(?, cause variable) and final output(ο, effect variable) in the most recent economic literature, furthermore, the OO and FF models were initially developed by the authors Gim and Kim(2009) as the other alternative models of the traditional, basic version of input-output(IO) model, the specific objectives of this paper can be shortly summed up as follows. (1) We perform a theoretical and comparative analysis between the OO and FF models in characteristics and features and illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the two alternative models. (2) We examine into the dependent and causal relationships between final output(?, cause variable) and final output(ο, effect variable), moreover, which have the same cause and effect relationships in the output-output and final demand(?)-final output(ο) models. (3) On the grounds of the two models studied and developed by the authors, we verify the linkage relationships and multiplier effects between the two variables of final output(?) and final output(?) to observe the relevant economic characteristics of each model. Further, this paper was mainly focused on deriving the mathematical models through the relationships between the variables ? (cause) and ο (effect) on the basis of the dependent and causal relationships in the models. Consequently, we inevitably need the real empirical study to examine the validity and usefulness of the OO and FF models analyzed in this research based on the varied raw data of Input-Output Tables compiled periodically by the Bank of Korea.

새로운 “産出ㆍ産出模型”의 開發과 活用에 관한 연구

金鎬彦(Gim Ho Un) 계명대학교 사회과학연구소 2008 한국사회과학연구 Vol.27 No.2

During the latest 10 years, the authors presented the following research outcomes concerned with the input-output model: (1) the complemented general relation between two notions of direct and indirect input requirements, (2) the decomposition by factors in output and input requirements matrices, and (3) the building of a new "Output-Output (OO) model"without having the overestimation and consecutive connection problems. This paper is organized into five sections and proceeds as follows. Section 2 briefly reviews the major results of literature in pre-researches dealing with the usefulness and limits of the model. Section 3 shows the derivation of the output-output model and presents the structure and characteristics of the IO and OO models. Section 4 introduces some good application examples focused on the empirical economic analysis. Finally, the conclusions are summarized in section 5. On the basis of the latest research findings, the study objectives of this paper can be summarized as follows. (1) We reexamine the merits and demerits of the traditional IO model developed by W. Leontief in the 1930's. (2) We clarify why the building of a new OO model used as an alternative to the IO model is necessary and needed. (3) We show in detail proper empirical examples that utilize the newly developed OO model in real world applications. In conclusion, the OO model can also be applied usefully and effectively in many different areas of input-output analysis such as impact analysis for output, output-output multipliers, pollution generation for output, intensity analysis of resources for output, etc. We would like to introduce proper cases in which the change in total output x naturally arises so that the concept of C<SUP>g</SUP> (output requirements matrix for output) can be used appropriately. It justly include: ① investment effects on large infrastructure projects, ② impact effects on mega-events like the soccer world cub and the olympic games, ③ regional(or national) economic impacts of reduction in a certain sector's production, and ④ impacts on production resulting from supply-constraints because of conditions such as strikes, natural disasters and war.

投入模型에서의 産業聯關乘數效果에 관한 연구

金鎬彦(Gim Ho Un) 계명대학교 사회과학연구소 2010 한국사회과학연구 Vol.29 No.2

Recently, Gim and Kim(2005, 2008a, 2009) presented the following research outcomes concerned with the open static interindustry model: (1) the general relation and the complemented general relation between two different input requirements for final demand and total output(γ<SUP>f</SUP>ij and γ<SUP>g</SUP>ij), (2) the entire decomposition by factors in output and input requirements matrices(e.g., C<SUP>f</SUP>, C<SUP>g</SUP>, and Γ<SUP>f</SUP>), (3) the development of a circulation system of production between final demand f, total output χ, and final output ο and (4) the building of a new Output-Output(OO) model without having the overestimation and consecutive connection problems. On the basis of the latest research results, the specific objectives of this paper can be summarized as follows. (1) We explore the economic meanings of four useful input and output requirements matrices: two output requirements matrices for final demand and output(C<SUP>f</SUP>, C<SUP>g</SUP>) and two input requirements matrices for final demand and output(Γ<SUP>f</SUP> and Γ<SUP>g</SUP>), which are obtained from the decomposition by factors of the Leontief inverse. (2) We generalize the interindustry multiplier effects on the various cause-and-effect equations, which can compute the economically induced effects through the relationships between cause and effect variables, in the input model newly considered as an alternative model of the ordinary input-output(IO) model. (3) We examine the economic interpretations for each element and compare the differences between two direct and indirect input requirements for final demand and output(γ<SUP>f</SUP>ij and γ<SUP>g</SUP>ij), which have the different meanings of multi-sector multiplier.

산업연관 승수효과를 통한 부문별 성장 잠재력 분석: IO모형과 OO모형을 통한 비교분석을 중심으로

김호언 국토연구원 2009 국토연구 Vol.63 No.-

Gim and Kim(2008b, 2009)에 의해 개발된 산출⋅산출(OO)모형은 투입․산출(IO)모형이 갖는 부문 사이의 연속적 연결과 과대추정의 문제를 동시에 해결하기 위하여 개발되어진 것이다. 또한 OO모형과 OO표는 IO모형과 IO표에 대한 대안적인 연구 방법을 제시하고 있다. 예를 들면 외생적 최종수요 변화에 대한 파급효과분석을 위해서는 전통적인 IO모형을, 외생적(혹은 내생적) 산출물 변화에 의한 각종 유발효과 등의 분석을 위해서는 새롭게 개발된 OO모형을 활용하면 된다. 본 논문의 연구 목적은 다음과 같다. 첫째, IO모형과 OO모형의 성격과 특성을 상호 대비하는 데 있다. 둘째, IO모형과 OO모형을 통한 부문별 성장 잠재력을 비교분석 하고자 한다. 성장 잠재력을 설명하는 지표는 투입계수행렬과 산출계수행렬, 전․후방연관효과, 각종 승수효과 등을 토대로 분석하고자 한다. 개별 부문의 값에 의한 부문분류는 상위(혹은 하위) 10%에 해당되는 부문은 높은 성장 잠재력(혹은 높은 성장 애로)이 있는 부문으로 규정하였다. Recently, Gim and Kim(2008b) verified that there is no consecutive connection between the output requirements matrix for final demand and the total output and that there are some limits to counting the economic impacts of the initial change of output. Therefore, we newly developed the Output-Output(OO) model and compiled the Output-Output table to solve the consecutive connection and overestimation problems naturally on the basis of the output requirements matrix for output . Based on the results and research findings in the literature of Output-Output Economics, the specific objectives of this paper can be summarized as follows. (1) We perform a comparative analysis between the IO and OO models in structure and characteristics to choose the best fitting model which coincide with the research themes. (2) We compute good indicators of growth(or impact) potential by sectors through interindustry multiplier and linkage effects originally developed by the author in the raw data of 2007 Output-Output Tables. The major findings from the empirical analysis are followed below. The growth potential sectors, which account for the top 30% of the standard normal distribution(SND), judged by sectoral multipliers for output, employment and income are petroleum and coal products, basic metals, and transport equipment, etc. in the IO model. As for the OO model, the only high growth potential sector, which account for the top 10% of the SND, is petroleum and coal products sector.

경제 분석에서 새로운 "종수요,최종산출 모형" 어떻게 활용할 것인가?: 모형의 성격과 유용성을 중심으로

김호언 ( Ho Un Gim ) 연세대학교 경제연구소 2013 延世經濟硏究 Vol.20 No.1

투입·산출(IO)모형과 산출·산출(OO)모형에 대한 기본적인 성격과 이해를 바탕으로 하여 다음과 같은 연구 목적을 설정하고자 한다. ① IO모형의 또 다른 대안모형으로 최종수요·최종산출(FF) 모형을 개발하고, 그 경제적 의미, 성격, 유용성 등을 규명하고자 한다. ② FF모형을 경제 분석의 새로운 분석 도구로써 활용할 수 있는 다양한 분석 방법을 개발하는 것이다. ③ FF모형을 토대로 하여 개발된 다양한 모형을 활용하여 경험적 경제 분석을 수행하는 데 그 목적이 있다. IO모형과 OO모형을 결합한 FF모형의 균형식은 ``Ax(중간수요)+Bo(중간산출)+f(최종수요)=o(최종산출)``로 표시되며, 균형식의 해는 ``o(결과변수)=Cgf(최종수요(f)·최종산출(o) 승수) f(원인변수)``와 같다. FF모형의 균형식의 해는 최종수요(f)가 외생적인 변수일 때, 최종수요·최종산출 승수(Cgf)를 통하여 결과변수인 최종산출(o)이 발생하게 되는 인과적인 관계를 잘 보여주고 있다. FF모형을 통하여 다양한 승수(산출, 고용, 소득, 에너지, 오염, 수출, 수입 등), 여러 종류의 연관효과(총전방, 총후방 등), 각종 유발효과 등을 유도할 수 있다. 특히 최종수요(원인변수)에 대한 성장 전망은 ① 일양신장(uniform expansion), ② 균등성장, ③ 불균등 성장 등으로 구분하여 각종 유발효과를 추계할 수 있다. 『2010년 산업연관표』를 기초 자료로 하여 내생부문 별 승수효과, 연관효과, 유발효과에 관한 경험적 분석을 실시하였다. On the grounds of the latest research findings and results from the models of input-output (IO) and output-output (OO), which was first developed by the author as the alternative model of the IO model, the specific objectives of this paper can be summed up as follows. (1) We develop a new final demand-final output (FF) model as the another alternative model of the traditional IO model and verify the nature, economic implications and usefulness of the model. (2) We derive the varied types of multipliers, linkage and induced economic effects for the newly developed FF model. (3) We examine the effectiveness and usefulness of the alternatively developed FF model through counting the various sectoral multipliers and induced effects based on raw data of 『2010 Input-Output Tables』}complied by the Bank of Korea. Moreover, the Spearman`s rank correlation coefficients, γs, are empirically counted to observe the relevant structural economic characteristics of each endogenous sector between types of multipliers, and between linkages and induced effects.

새로운 산출‧산출모형에서 “예산제약하의 승수효과”를 어떻게 추계할 것인가?

김호언 경남대학교 산업경영연구소 2015 지역산업연구 Vol.38 No.1

Ordinarily, the standard (ordinary, traditional) input-output (IO) multipliers on the basis of the Leontief inverse (or output requirements matrix for final demand) between total output (), final output (), and final demand () are entirely based on the unrestricted (or unconstrained) circumstances in constraints on financing, budget, and redistribution scheme. In the real economic situations, however, let us consider a new injection project focused on a specific endogenous sector needs a reduction in government spending in the remaining whole sectors, for , so as to maintain the total budget constraints of the government. On the ground of the latest research findings and results from the multiplier effects under budget constraints in the new output-output (OO) model, developed originally by the author in the most recent days, the specific objectives of this paper can be shown briefly as follows. (1) We testify the validity and necessity for the multiplier effects under budget constraints in the newly developed OO model on the basis of the limits and problems on the traditional IO multipliers. (2) As a basis of an alternative concept of multiplier through the dependentoutput-output relationship, we derive the models for the multiplier analysis under budget constraints based on the three different requirements matrices for output (, , and ) and show definitely the economic characteristics and meanings of the models developed. (3) For the 28 endogenous sectors in the OO tables, we empirically calculate the final output multipliers under budget constraints ( and ) through the final output requirements matrices for output ( and ) from the IO raw data on the Korean economy 2010. 현실적으로 요구되는 제약조건하의 승수효과에 대한 연구 필요성을 바탕으로 하여 다음과 같은 연구 목적을 설정하고자 한다. (1) 기존의 투입‧산출(IO)모형을 토대로 한 IO승수의 제반 한계를 보완하기 위하여 산출‧산출(OO)모형을 기반으로 한 승수분석의 당위성을 다양한 방법으로 논증하고자 한다. (2) 산출‧산출 의존관계를 통한 대안적 승수 개념으로 예산제약하의 승수효과를 분석할 수 있는 모형을 개발하고, 이들 모형에 대한 경제적 함의를 부여하는 데 있다. (3) 개발된 예산제약하의 승수분석 모형을 활용하여 한국 경제를 분석 대상으로 한 경험적 사례 연구를 수행하고자 한다. IO모형의 한계와 문제점을 상보적으로 해결하기 위한 대안모형으로 OO모형이 개발되었으며, OO균형식()의 해는 (결과변수)(총산출()‧최종산출() 승수)(원인변수)’로 표시된다. 총산출()‧최종산출() 승수()의 원소 를 통하여‘최종산출()‧최종산출() 승수’와‘총산출()‧총산출() 승수’를 각각 유도할 수 있다. 이제 내생부문의 정부 예산에 새로운 신규 유입(혹은 증액)이 발생하게 되면, 여타 나머지 모든 부문()에서는 추가적인 지출 감소가 불가피하게 된다. 이와 같은 현실적인 재정지출의 변화를 고려하여 정부의 예산 재분배 계획()이 수립되어야 한다. 에 의한 승수와 승수에서 부문에 대한 제약 최종산출승수(, )를, 승수를 통하여 부문에 대한 제약 총산출승수()를 각각 유도할 수 있다. 세 종류의 제약승수(, , )는 양(+)의 값을 갖는 최종산출효과(승수에서는 총산출효과)와 음(-)의 값을 갖는 대체효과로 나누어진다. 반면에 세 승수 행렬(, , )에서 행과 열을 서로 치환한 후에 다시 세 제약승수(, , )를 같은 방법으로 구하면, 양의 값을 갖는 내부효과와 음(혹은 양)의 값을 갖는 외부효과의 합으로 구성된다. 아울러 승수와 승수 행렬에서 구한 부문별 제약 최종산출승수와 개별 효과 사이의 상관계수()와 순위상관계수()를 각각 구하였다. 두 승수(와 ) 행렬에서 제약 최종산출승수와 최종산출효과 사이에는 높은 정의 상관관계를 보여주고 있다. 반면에 승수에서는 내부효과와 외부효과 사이가 서로 무관하게 분석 되었으며, 승수에서는 내부효과와 외부효과 사이가 높은 음(-)의 상관관계를 나타내고 있다. 두 승수(와 ) 모두에서 제약 최종산출승수와 최종산출효과 면에서는 11부문(금속제품)과 16부문(가구/기타 제조업)이 높은 부문별 순위를 차지하고 있다.

산출물에 대한 生産誘發係數行列의 經濟的 含意에 관한 연구

金鎬彦(Gim Ho Un) 계명대학교 사회과학연구소 2009 한국사회과학연구 Vol.28 No.2

Most recently, the authors (Gim and Kim, 2009) showed the following research outcomes concerned with the Input-Output (IO) model and table pioneeringly developed by W. Leontief in the early 1930s: (1) the general relation and the complemented general relation between two different input requirements for final demand and total output, (2) the entire decomposition by factors in output and input requirements matrices, and (3) the consecutive connection and overestimation problems in the inter-industry model. Moreover, we found out that there is no consecutive connection between the Leontief inverse matrix C<SUP>f</SUP> and the total output x and that there are some limits to computing the impact effects of the initial change in output. Finally, we developed a new??Output-Output(OO) model??and compiled a new??Output-Output table??to solve the problems and limits in the IO model together through the output requirements matrix for output C?. On the basis of the latest research findings, the specific objectives of this paper can be summarized as follows. (1) We closely examine into the characters and characteristics of the OO model used as an alternative to the IO model. (2) We test the consecutive connection problem, in the interpretation of inter-sectoral interdependence, in the OO model between the output requirements matrix C?, the total output x, and the final demand f. (3) We derive the varied economic interpretations and implications from the inverse matrix C?. Therefore, we truly understand that the IO and OO models are not completely separate or independent even though they differ essentially on the impact (the initial change on final demand vs. total output).