은행의 신용관리가 대출행태와 연체율에 미치는 영향: System-GMM을 활용한 은행 패널자료 분석

이지영 한국재무학회 2024 財務硏究 Vol.37 No.1

Banks’ credit management impacts the terms of lending, and diversification of loan portfolios and thus affects the total loan delinquency ratios. We find that the rising shares of recurring payment mortgages, one of the policy measures of restructuring mortgage loans since the second half of 2015, made positive contributions to banks’ asset management by improving credit management in the process of evaluating borrowers’ credits. Banks differentiated lending interests for mortgage borrowers even when their bank-issued credit ratings were the same in consideration of the differences in credit ratings that the credit bureaus (CB) issue. Using individual bank-level monthly data from September 2015 to May 2018, to explain the total loan delinquency ratios, we consider the banks' lending behavior on small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) loans, recurring payment mortgages, one-time payment mortgages, personal loans, and personal lines of credit. During the period, the Bank of Korea maintained its base interest rate between 1.25 percent and 1.75 percent and we focus on the share of high-interest loans (over five percent) for relatively low-credit borrowers. We also include the business cycle, return on financial asset (KOSPI), changes in the foreign exchange rate (KRW/USD), and real interest rate that could affect borrowers’ payment ability. We adopt the system-GMM estimation to correct bias caused by the problem of endogeneity as financial ratios can be affected simultaneously by the bank management. The system-GMM has some advantages over the fixed effect model since it deals with the omitted bias for some time-varying variables such as the CEO’s trait. Among fifteen commercial banks, nine banks experienced CEO turnovers during the period. Macroeconomic variables are significant determinants of the banks’ total loan delinquency ratios. A rise in economic activity, an increase in stock prices, and domestic currency depreciation against USD can positively impact bank asset quality. However, a rise in real interest rates can worsen bank asset quality. Banks’ total loan delinquency ratios could be varied by varying both the composition of the loan types and the credit structures of the banks’ loans. While the increase of high-interest loans for non-prime borrowers in new SME lending raised the total loan delinquency ratios, the increase of high-interest loans for non-prime borrowers in new recurring payment mortgages lowered the total loan delinquency ratios. This is due to the differences in the credit structures of non-prime borrowers of high-interest loans between SME loans and mortgage loans. Moreover, we analyze how the banks determine the lending interest rates for household loans and SME loans as it matters to asset quality. The Korea Federation of Banks provides the bank-issued credit ratings of household loan borrowers into five categories, from 1~2 grades at the top to 9~10 grades at the bottom as well as the CB credit ratings. The stages of bank-issued credit ratings of SME loans are 1~3 grades at the top, grade 4, grade 5, grade 6, and 7~10 grades at the bottom. For household loans, even when the bank-issued credit ratings are the same, we find a fair amount of heterogeneity in the lending interest rates depending on the differences in borrowers’ CB-issued credit ratings. This implies that banks’ credit management has improved since the second half of 2015. We especially focus on low-credit borrowers of mortgage loans whose bank-issued credit ratings are 7~10 grades. There exist noticeable differences in the borrowers’ CB credit ratings depending on the types of mortgage loans. For low-credit borrowers of high-interest mortgage loans, the average CB credit quality of the recurring payment mortgages is superior to that of the one-time payment mortgages. This explains the reason why the rising shares of high-interest recurring payment mortgage loans lowered the total loan delinquency ratios of...

SNS 사용특성, 대출특성, 개인특성이 신용대출 상환에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

정원훈,이재순 한국벤처창업학회 2023 벤처창업연구 Vol.18 No.5

본 연구의 목적은 SNS 사용특성과 대출상품의 특성, 개인특성이 신용대출 상환에 미치는 영향력을 확인하여 SNS를 활용하는 대안신용평가가 기존 대출심사를 보완할 수 있는지를 검증하기 위함이다. 이를 위해 SNS를 활용하여 실제 대출심사에 반영하고 있는 T사 A 신용대출 프로그램 데이터를 이용하여 SNS 사용특성, 대출특성, 개인특성이 신용대출 상환에 미치는 영향력을 이항로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해 분석하였다. 분석결과 첫째, 사용자의 성격 및 개별 특성을 나타내는 프로필 사진의 경우 본인을 드러내지 않으려고 프로필 사진을 등록하지 않은 사람들과 달리 외향적인 경향의 사람이 선택할 가능성이 큰 본인 사진, 가족, 친구 등의 사적그룹 사진, 성실성의 경향이 강한 사람이 선택할 확률이 높은 취미 등 사회활동 사진, 개방성과 신경성이 높은 경향의 사람이 많이 선택하는 캐릭터·유머 사진, 개인의 사생활과 직결되는 가족·친구 등 사진을 SNS에 사용하는 사람들일수록 신용대출 상환에 적극적인 것으로 나타났다. 본인을 감추는 풍경 등의 사진 사용과 신용대출 상환과의 인과관계는 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 또한, SNS 사용량이 많을수록 신용대출 상환가능성이 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 SNS 소통량은 신용대출 상환가능성에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 소통량이라는 변수가 사용자가 직접 작성한 글보다는 타인의 댓글에 대한 공감을 나타내는 수동적 측면이 강하기 때문에 나타난 결과라 판단된다. 대출채권이 가진 특성을 나타내는 대출기간과 대출횟수도 신용대출 상환에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 대출기간과 대출횟수가 소액대출 상품에서도 중요한 영향요소로 고려되어야 함을 의미한다. 개인 특성 변수 중에서는 성별만 유의하게 나타났다. 이는 분석에 사용한 대출프로그램이 은행 등의 금융기관에서 대출이 불가능한 저신용 점수를 가진 20~30대 고객이 대부분인 상품으로 이용자의 나이와 신용점수에 있어서 차별성이 크지 않다는 것을 의미한다. 본 연구는 SNS사용량과 프로필 사진 등 기존 신용평가 연구에서 다루지 않은 변수를 사용하여 신용대출 상환과의 영향관계를 실증분석하였다는 점에서 기존 연구와 차별성을 갖는다. SNS와 같은 주관적 비정형정보를 서민지원 대출심사에 활용한다면, 신용거래가 없어서 신용등급이 낮거나 단기적 유동성 함정에 빠진 차입자 즉 금융이력부족자(Thin filer)들이 신용거래 등의 금융 이력이 축적될 때까지의 신용비용에 대한 불이익을 감소시킬 수 있다는 점에서 의의가 있다. This study aims to investigate the potential of alternative credit assessment through Social Networking Sites (SNS) as a complementary tool to conventional loan review processes. It seeks to discern the impact of SNS usage characteristics and loan product attributes on credit loan repayment. To achieve this objective, we conducted a binomial logistic regression analysis examining the influence of SNS usage patterns, loan characteristics, and personal attributes on credit loan conditions, utilizing data from Company A's credit loan program, which integrates SNS data into its actual loan review processes. Our findings reveal several noteworthy insights. Firstly, with respect to profile photos that reflect users' personalities and individual characteristics, individuals who choose to upload photos directly connected to their personal lives, such as images of themselves, their private circles (e.g., family and friends), and photos depicting social activities like hobbies, which tend to be favored by individuals with extroverted tendencies, as well as character and humor-themed photos, which are typically favored by individuals with conscientious traits, demonstrate a higher propensity for diligently repaying credit loans. Conversely, the utilization of photos like landscapes or images concealing one's identity did not exhibit a statistically significant causal relationship with loan repayment. Furthermore, a positive correlation was observed between the extent of SNS usage and the likelihood of loan repayment. However, the level of SNS interaction did not exert a significant effect on the probability of loan repayment. This observation may be attributed to the passive nature of the interaction variable, which primarily involves expressing sympathy for other users' comments rather than generating original content. The study also unveiled the statistical significance of loan duration and the number of loans, representing key characteristics of loan portfolios, in influencing credit loan repayment. This underscores the importance of considering loan duration and the quantity of loans as crucial determinants in the design of microcredit products. Among the personal characteristic variables examined, only gender emerged as a significant factor. This implies that the loan program scrutinized in this analysis does not exhibit substantial discrimination based on age and credit scores, as its customer base predominantly consists of individuals in their twenties and thirties with low credit scores, who encounter challenges in securing loans from traditional financial institutions. This research stands out from prior studies by empirically exploring the relationship between SNS usage and credit loan repayment while incorporating variables not typically addressed in existing credit rating research, such as profile pictures. It underscores the significance of harnessing subjective, unstructured information from SNS for loan screening, offering the potential to mitigate the financial disadvantages faced by borrowers with low credit scores or those ensnared in short-term liquidity constraints due to limited credit history a group often referred to as "thin filers." By utilizing such information, these individuals can potentially reduce their credit costs, whereas they are supposed to accrue a more substantial financial history through credit transactions under conventional credit assessment system.

정상대출과 부실대출의 방향거리효율과 민감도분석 : 부산·경남 소재의 신협을 중심으로

정수임 ( Suim-jung ),강상목 ( Sangmok-kang ) 한국생산성학회 2021 生産性論集 Vol.35 No.4

The global economy has stagnated due to COVID-19, and the era of low-interest rates continues due to changes in the benchmark interest rate. As liquidity increases due to continued low-interest rates, real estate prices rise and loans are increasing accordingly. Increased loans lead to increased profits, but insolvent loans cause large losses in financial institutions and reduce profits, negatively affecting management efficiency, so it is necessary to find ways to minimize the negative impact of bad debts and expand normal loans. The purpose of this study is to measure the inefficiency of bad loans using various directional distance functions and find a desirable direction, centering on Shinhyup in Busan and Gyeongnam, which have the highest delinquency rate in the country. Based on the fact that various directions can be given, which is an advantage of the directional distance function, five directional vectors are used to measure the inefficiency of each shape of the directional distance function. In addition, the inefficiency of local credit unions and organizational credit unions is measured, and the inefficiency is measured according to the asset size and the number of members. Finally, the effect of changes in normal and bad loans on inefficiency, that is, the sensitivity of efficiency, is measured. This study is different from previous studies in that it studied the Credit Union by measuring directional distance efficiency that gave five different directions to the increase in normal loans and the decrease in bad loans. According to the empirical results, first, it was most efficient when the ratio of increase in normal loans and decrease in bad loans remained at 3:1, so it seems desirable to increase normal loans and further reduce bad loans. Second, when comparing regional credit unions and collective credit unions, regional credit unions were found to be efficient in the same way as Busan and Gyeongnam. This means that small group credit unions are more inefficient than local credit unions when bad loans occur depending on economies of scale. Third, when comparing Busan and Gyeongnam organizational credit unions, Busan was found to be more efficient. This is because Busan includes many group credit unions consisting of members with high income and excellent creditworthiness. Fourth, in the sensitivity analysis of efficiency, it was confirmed that a union with high efficiency performance obtains better results when it attempts to increase normal loans and improve poor loans. Therefore, a strategy to improve the performance of the union is needed. Each union needs to continue to find safe and creditable loans and carefully manage bad loans. In addition, it is necessary to establish a strict management system for credit unions where bad loans frequently occur and to apply flexible management to sincere unions.

한국기업금융시장에서 기업간신용의 이론적 분석

정병욱(Byung Uk Chong) 한국경영학회 2009 經營學硏究 Vol.38 No.1

Trade credit is a non-bank financing offered by a supplier to finance the purchase of its product. Trade credit is one of the important sources of debt financing which can substitute bank loan. Trade credit is prevailing among riskier borrowers, competing with bank loan in corporate loan market. The prevalence of trade credit implies that there exist mutual economic benefits for both suppliers and buyers from transacting trade credits even though the default rate of trade credits is much higher than that of bank loans. This paper models the economic incentive for product suppliers to offer trade credits to riskier borrowing firms which might not be able to obtain financing from conventional and specialized financial institutions such as banks. When the product market is imperfect, a product supplier can obtain additional price-cost margin by increasing the sale of products. That is, there is a gain to offering trade credits to facilitate the purchase of inputs to riskier borrowing firms who cannot obtain bank financing. Therefore, trade credits service riskier borrowing firms than bank loans in the corporate loan market. Trade credit model is mainly based on the imperfect structure of product market in that suppliers would otherwise have no incentive to sell its product on trade credit. Borrowing firms would be indifferent between different financing sources if there exist perfect substitutes in the corporate loan market. In such an economy, the suppliers achieve no benefits by offering trade credits while firms can borrow at competitive interest rates from conventional financial institutions (banks) in the corporate loan market. Thus, the economic investigation of trade credits needs to be based on the imperfectness either in the financial market or in the product market or both. Incorporating the analytical and empirical outcomes of the previous studies, this paper provides a unique theoretical model where trade credits service riskier borrowers than bank loans in the corporate loan market. This paper models the equilibrium in the monopolistically competitive market where firms need to buy inputs to conduct business projects. Then, the model in this paper links the monopolistically competitive input market and the perfectly competitive loan market to characterize the prominence and features of trade credit when a firm’s purchase of input requires financing. Further, this paper applies the model to corporate loan market in Korea to investigate the effect of trade credit and internal transfer price on tunneling in Korean business groups(chaebols). This paper shows that the internal transaction between the firms within a chaebol can transfer the value of a firm to another firm through the high interest rate on trade credit combined with high transfer price of the product. In this tunneling, the firm on which owner-managers and/or controlling shareholders have dominant cash flow rights exploits the value of minority shareholders of the firm which purchases the product at high internal transfer price on trade credit with high interest rate. As a consequence, the controlling shareholders of chaebols in Korea can obtain private benefits through internal transactions on trade credits. This theoretical prediction is appropriate to explain possible agency conflict between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders of chaebol firms in Korea. The model in this paper provides a simple tool that can be used to investigate a unique corporate governance arrangements and resulting tunneling in Korean chaebols. As another extension for corporate finance practice in Korea, this paper models that the introduction of credit insurance increases the availability of trade credits for small businesses while improving profitability of product suppliers. It is widely known that financial markets in Korea are not developed enough to allocate funds efficiently to small businesses, which can easily be caught into financial distress and resulting

신용계약의 규율방향 시론 - 대부신용을 중심으로 -

서희석 한국민사법학회 2011 民事法學 Vol.55 No.-

When it is based on the forms of credit available, the credit transaction can be classified into loan credit (net credit), sales credit and lease credit. It is a characteristic of the current Korean legislation that various special laws exist for regulating each region of such credit transactions. The problem is that as these special laws were enacted for each individual purpose, not being governed systematically by comprehensive concepts such as credit contract or consumer credit, the mutual relationship between the individual law and the range of disciplines remain unclear or vague. Consequently, credit laws are recognized as the highly complex and esoteric realm. Thus, special laws on credit contracts for a variety of purposes require a more detailed analysis on the discipline system or the mutual relationship. Considering the above problem, this article examined mainly the loan credit. Loan credit has two main issues in terms of the civil law, that is, how to be regulated by contract law (the issue of contract law) and how to regulate the high interest (the issue of interest limitation). After the examination of the current laws (Civil Code, Loan Credit Business Act,Interest Limitation Act), this article suggested the way to incorporate the main ideas of credit contract into the Civil Code by subdividing the section of 'loan contract for consumption' of the Civil Code into the general provisions, loan credit, sales credit. Interest Limitation Act may be incorporated into the 'loan credit', however, the dual structure of interest limitation (i.e., the vertical split into the Interest limitation Act and the Loan Credit Business Act) shall be settled first. Additional things other than Interest Limitation Act shall be determined through the review of the practical needs and of comparative laws.

금융소비자의 거주주택마련 신용대출에 관한 연구

박나영,정순희,전지원 한국소비자정책교육학회 2019 소비자정책교육연구 Vol.15 No.4

This research investigates financial consumers who get a credit loan for the house purchasing. They could be most affected in case of the Debt Service Ratio (DSR) reaches to nonmonetary institutions. The purpose of the research is to draw a policy implication for the application of the DSL system over all types of financial institutions by analyzing distinguishing factors of the financial consumers. Chi-square analysis and t-test was used to analyze the difference in demographic and economic characteristics between households who get a credit loan for the house purchasing and those who do not. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to analyze the relative influence of demographic and economic characteristics on the amount of credit loan for the house purchasing. In order to find out the factors affecting the credit loan for the house purchasing, a binary logistic regression analysis was performed on this data, and as a dependent variable, 1 was set for the case of using a credit loan for a housing and 0 for not. According to the results, the majority of people having credit Loan for the house purchasing hows the following tendency — the young, having an office job, living in a multiplex house or a townhouse rather than an apartment and having less property and debt. In other words, it was unavoidable for them to get a credit loan for the house purchasing. Especially, it shows a policy implication on the following point. It is that financial consumers who have credit loan for the house purchasing, mostly have one house and do not have any real estate. Here are some policy proposals. Based on the result of the research, Credit loan for the house purchasing, should be only allowed when a single residence owner who wants to get house ownership pays back a loan. Plus, when they originally do not have a credit loan according to the existing DSR system. Also, it is required to improve the system that increases LTV. Secondly, the maximum income for married couples has to be abolished to improve LTV of single residence owners who prepare housing plan. Abolishing the maximum income for married couples could develop consumers’ financial soundness by purchasing without credit loan with high interest. It is not only for the low-income group but also anyone who tries to stabilize residence. 본 연구에서는 거주주택마련을 위해 신용대출을 받는 금융소비자에 대하여 분석하고자 한다. 거주주택마련을 위해 신용대출을 받는 금융소비자들은 제 2금융권으로 총부채원리금상환비율(이하 DSR)이 확대되는 경우, 가장 타격을 입을 수 있는 금융소비자들이기 때문이다. 거주주택마련을 위해 신용대출을 받는 금융소비자들을 구분할 수 있는 변인을 파악하여 전 금융기관의 DSR제도의 정착을 위한 정책적 함의를 도출하는데 본 연구의 목적이 있다. 본 연구의 분석대상은 금융감독원 및 한국은행과 공동으로 통계청이 동일한 가구를 조사하는 패널조사인 2015년 ‘가계금융․복지조사’이다. 본 자료는 가구 특성별 소득과 자산, 지출, 부채 등을 통해 재무건전성을 파악하고, 가구 단위의 부채를 파악하여 경제적 삶의 수준과 변화 지속기간 등을 미시적으로 파악하는 조사이다. 본 연구의 분석 대상 가구는 거주주택마련을 위한 대출을 위한 대출을 보유하고 있는 총 985 가구이다. 연구결과 거주주택마련 신용대출이 있는 조사대상자들은 연령이 낮고 사무직이면서 아파트보다는 다세대 혹은 연립주택에 거주하며 자산과 부채금액이 낮은 사람들이었다. 즉, 거주주택을 마련하기 위해 불가피하게 신용대출을 받는 사람들이라는 것을 알 수 있었다. 특히, 거주주택마련 신용대출이 있는 금융소비자들이 거주주택이외 부동산이 없는 1주택 소유자라는 점이 정책적 시사점을 가진다고 볼 수 있다. 정책적 제안은 다음과 같다. 연구결과를 기초로 하면, 첫째, 현행 DSR제도 하에 거주주택마련이 목적인 1가구 1주택자인 경우 신용대출을 없애는 조건으로 혹은 신용대출이 없는 경우만 주택담보대출을 받게 하고 대신 LTV(주택담보대출비율)를 높이는 제도 개선이 요구된다. 둘째, 현행 DSR제도 하에 거주주택마련이 목적인 1가구 1주택자의 LTV를 높이는 데 있어 부부합산 소득상한을 없애야 한다. LTV를 높이는 데 있어 부부합산 소득상한을 없애는 제도 개선은 주택마련이 어려운 저소득 계층뿐만 아니라 주거안정을 위한 목적이 분명하다면, 누구나 고금리의 거주주택마련을 위한 신용대출을 받지 않고 주택을 구입함으로써 금융소비자들의 재무건전성을 높일 수 있는 방법이기 때문이다.

서민의 금융접근과 상호금융의 관계금융 활성화

이종욱 서울여자대학교 사회과학연구소 2015 사회과학논총 Vol.22 No.-

서민들은 기본적으로 소득 및 부도 낮고 현금흐름도 불안정하여, 과거 및 현재 정량적인 재무정보를 기반으로 평가하는 개인신용 평가에서 낮은 등급을 받게 되어 금융기관에서 대출을 받기도 어렵고, 금융접근이 되더라도 높은 대출이자를 지불해야 한다. 신용등급이 낮은 서민들이 자주 이용하는 상호금융기관은 금융감독기관에 의해 CAMEL로 평가 받고 있어서, 서민들을 위한 금융상품을 출시하는 것이 불가능하다. 서민들의 대부업체 이용을 줄여 고금리 이자의 부담을 경감해 주려면, 금융정책 당국은 서민들이 아닌 신용불량자들을 위한 다양한 정책금융 상품을 출시하는 것과 병행하여, 상호금융이 그 지역 서민들에게 맞는 관계형 금융상품을 출시할 수 있는 여지를 열어 주어야 한다. 서민들이 신용불량자가 되지 않고 금융기관을 활용하여 스스로 신용등급을 관리할 수 있는 기회가 만들어질 수 있다. 1960년대 마을금고와 신협이 지역에서 관계금융을 제공하였으므로, 금융정책 및 감독 당국은 자산건전성분류 기준 그리고 CAMEL 등급 평가를 지역밀착형 금융기관이 소액대출에서는 관계금융이 활성화될 수 있도록 맞도록 조정해야 한다. Since financial institutions have been evaluated by CAMEL based on past and present financial information, the low income classes who get low income, real net wealth and unstable cash flow, get low credit rating at Credit Bureau as well as financial institutions. They have some difficulties in making a loan and pay high interest for even getting the loan. Credit cooperatives and small financial institutions to make a loan to the humble classes have been evaluated by CAMEL and can’t provide financial services to consider their situations. To get small loan, the low income classes who are not accessible to Credit cooperatives and small financial institutions, visit a usurer to demand so high interest. Korean government has provided financial products-for example, smile microcredit, national happy fund, new hope spore loan, sunshine loan-for only delinquent borrower, but they are not enough to recover credit rating for about 3.2 million credit defaulters in Korea and to reduce the number of delinquents. To reduce the number of people who use credit loan from a usurer, financial policy and supervisory authorities have to provide opportunities for credit cooperatives attached to the community to make a loan by relational banking. The relational banking loan which are based on borrower’s honesty, ethical reputation, family tradition, etc. as well as financial status, can not be evaluated by the criteria of CAMEL. Korea has some experiences of relational banking loan in the 1960s by Maeul Cooperative which has been developed into Community Credit Cooperative. To promote relational banking small loan by credit cooperatives, financial policy and supervisory authorities have to attempt to restructure the classification of asset quality and the evaluation practices of financial institutions by CAMEL, to reflect the economic activities and situations of both low income classes and credit defaulters. This restructuring is big works which need wide range of joint researches by scholars, credit bureau professionals, credit cooperative employers, and then the revision of law as well as supervisory guidelines.

외상매출채권담보대출 취급관행 문제와 폐해해소 방안

추문갑,윤병섭 경남대학교 산업경영연구소 2016 지역산업연구 Vol.39 No.4

Korea Government implemented CSSL(Credit Sales Secured Loan) program to avoid chain bankruptcy in small&middle sized companies from the custom of commercial note’s cession and reduce financing costs by collecting credit sales in early stages. However, it has been assessed that CSSL program could not contribute to fair system of delivery charges because it has limitations continuing incomplete transactions and unsolving charged financial expenses. Even though The Financial Services Authority revised CSSL program, in the situation of maintaining the loan practice depended on documents it must be supplemented politically because the risk of CSSL resulted from structural problems in the loan practice, not the company’s decision voluntarily. The problems of CSSL are delivery charges and limitations of loan practice originally based on the note system. Supplier can be a principle obligor of bank loan contract, then both two issues are still remaining ; the chain bankruptcy of small&middle sized companies and the shifting financing cost issues. Most commercial banks make decision to loan limitation and interest rate based on buyer’s credit rate and figures. This may result in predatory lending structure because of executing loan over the limitation of buyer’s credit level. Also, it is open to contracts in accordance with the 3rd party’s loan requirement and predatory loan. It is because the loan limitation and interest rate would be decided on buyer’s credit level, but the supplier can be a principal loan borrower. In the point of view of fair trade, I would propose 4 solutions to solve harmful effects of CSSL. Firstly, the fundamental principle of the moment of cost settlement should be 30 days instead of current 60 days. In order to take normal payment terms roots in the market actively and support better financial conditions to small&middle sized companies, the Corporate Purchase Loan should be implemented. Secondly, it is impossible to abolish the right of recourse because CSSL requires the bank check credit level, so alternative plans of the Corporate Purchase Loan must be considered. Thirdly, loan structure of banks is strongly required to be innovated by explaining the consumers in detail about documents needed to submit for loan. Lastly, implementing credit insurance program can be a solution. The program assists banks to determine insurance level by reflecting client’s financial risk. 상업어음의 배서양도 관행이 가져오는 중소기업의 연쇄도산을 방지하고 납품대금을 조기에 회수해 금융비용 부담을 해소하려는 외상매출채권담보대출 제도를 정부가 도입하였으나 어음대체수단이 가져야 할 미결제위험 지속과 금융비용 전가 문제 해결에 한계를 보여 납품대금 공정화에기여하지 못한다는 평가가 나오고 있다. 금융당국은 서류에 의존한 대출 실행 관행이 쉽게 개선되지 않고 있는 실정이어서 외상매출채권담보대출과 관련한 보완 정책을 발표하였다. 그러나 외상매출채권담보대출의 피해는 개별 기업이 자율적으로 선택한 위험으로 인해 발생한 것이 아니라 결제관행상의 구조적 문제에서 기인하므로 정책적 보완과 개선이 시급하다. 외상매출채권담보대출의 취급관행이 지니는 문제점은 어음 제도가 지닌 결제지연과 대출 형식의 한계이다. 납품업체가 대출의 주채무자가 되는 구조는 미결제위험의 지속과 금융비용 전가의문제점으로 나타난다. 대부분의 시중은행에서 이뤄지는 외상매출채권담보대출의 이자율이나 한도금액 등 대출 약정 상 내용들은 구매기업의 신용도와 매출실적을 바탕으로 결정된다. 이에 따라대출자의 상환능력 이상 대출 실행이 가능해져 약탈적 대출구조가 형성된다. 제3자의 대출요건에따른 약정과 은행의 약탈적 대출 소지가 있다. 대출한도와 이자등급은 구매기업들의 신용과 매출실적으로 설정되는 반면 대출자는 공급자가 되므로 제3자 대출조건으로 인한 은행의 약탈적 대출이 될 수 있다. 따라서 공정거래의 관점에서 볼 때 외상매출채권담보대출 제도 폐해해소 방안을 다음과 같이제언한다. 첫째, 외상매출채권담보대출의 대금 결제 기본 원칙을 현행 60일 이내 현금 결제에서30일 이내 현금 결제로 정해 외담대 조기결제 이행을 정착화 해야 한다. 정상적인 거래 관행을 정착시키고, 교섭력이 취약한 중소기업의 결제편의를 제고하기 위해 외상매출채권담보대출보다 기업구매자금대출 제도를 적극적으로 정착시켜야 한다. 둘째, 외상매출채권담보대출 자체가 자기책임 하에 거래선 신용을 체크하여야 하는 전제를 지니고 있어 상환청구권 폐지가 현실적으로 어렵기 때문에 상환청구권 폐지에 상응하는 대안의 검토가 필요하다. 셋째, 은행의 설명의무 강화 등대출구조의 혁신이 필요하다. 마지막으로 트레이드 크레딧을 활용한 보험료 산정을 들 수 있다. 우리나라에는 아직 도입되지 않은 제도인 트레이드 크레딧을 외상매출채권담보대출에 활용할 수있을 것으로 판단된다. 이는 거래 상대방의 리스크를 반영해 보험료를 산정할 수 있다.

국내 신용협동조합 대출 결정요인의 패널분석

박정희 한국협동조합학회 2018 韓國協同組合硏究 Vol.36 No.3

2010년 상반기부터 2016년 하반기까지 국내 지역신협의 반기별 재무자료를 사용하여 신협대출의 결정요인을 분석하였다. 단일방정식 패널모형에 의한 분석 결과 대출금리는 물론, 유동성비율, 순자본비율, 신용위험 등 신협의 특성변수가 유의하게 대출에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 주택가격이나 주식가격, 물가상승률 등 거시경제변수도 대출규모의 결정에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 신협의 대출이 대출금리와 음(-)의 관계를 가지는 것은 대출수요의 금리탄력성이 대출공급의 금리탄력성보다 더 큰 것을 의미한다. 유동성비율이 클수록 대출이 증가하는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 유동부채가 대출의 제약요인으로 작용함을 의미하는 동시에 유동자산이 신협의 대출능력을 측정하는 변수가 될 수 있음을 암시한다. 신용위험이 클수록 대출이 감소하는 것은 신협의 대출에 신용위험이 걸림돌로 작용함을 시사한다. 신협이 대출의 안정적 공급이라는 설립 목적을 제대로 달성하기 위해서는 평소에 유동성비율 및 신용위험 관리에 주력하여야 할 것이다. This paper analyzes the determinants of lending using semi-annual accounting data of Korean credit unions during the period of 2010 to 2016. With employing single equation panel regression models, it can be seen that a credit union’s liquidity ratio, net capital ratio, credit risks, and loan interest rate significantly affect a loan size. House prices, stock prices, and inflation rates also affect the volume of a loan. The negative relationship between the size of a loan and its interest rate implies that the sensitivity of loan demand against loan interest rate is greater than that of loan supply against loan interest rate. The positive relationship between the size of a loan and its liquidity ratio demonstrates that the liquidity ratio could represent a credit union’s loan capacity. In contrast, given the negative correlation between credit risks and a loan’s size, credit risks may hamper the expansion of lending operations in credit unions. For Korean credit unions to accomplish their initial goal of stabilizing loans to low-income families and small enterprises, credit risks and liquidity ratios must be carefully managed.

가계부문 신용사이클이 채무불이행 위험에 미치는 영향 분석

박성욱 ( Sungwook Park ),임진 ( Lim Jean ),김영일(논평) 한국금융연구원 2018 한국경제의 분석 Vol.24 No.3

During the period of economic boom, financial companies are far more lenient on lending in compliance with their loan expansion policy. This is because not only the equity of financial companies improves, but both borrowers and financial companies come to enjoy optimistic views on investment profitability and loan redemption. Consequently, financial companies give out loans even to borrowers with poor debt service ability. These loans granted to ineligible borrowers during the credit cycle boom are excessive loans, in hindsight, deteriorating the quality of loans as a whole. This study investigates whether the growth rate of household debt has significant effect on the delinquency rate by using the micro information of 5.786 million accounts newly opened during 2010 to 2017. Analysis result shows that the higher the growth rate of household debt in a certain period, the higher the insolvency rate of loans made in the corresponding term. Furthermore, this study demonstrates through empirical analysis that credit loans than mortgage loans, non-bank loans than bank loans, and non-wage workers’ loans than wage workers’ loans are more sensitive to credit cycles. In addition, the probability of insolvency is more affected by the credit cycle than economic cycle; and it is estimated that there is little effect of economic cycle on insolvency when credit cycle is controlled. Based on these results, this study suggests that the dynamic loan loss provisions and Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB), the two most typical macroprudential policies, should be accumulated in line with the credit cycle rather than economic cycle for a more direct impact on financial stability. Moreover, it is necessary to differentiate the amount of the dynamic loan loss provisions and CCyB depending on the type of loan. That is, for instance, more loan loss provisions should be accumulated for increment of credit loan than that of mortgage loan to better enhance the overall financial stability.