中国西部地区产业结构升级背景下 流动人口就业结构的分析研究 – 以贵阳市为例 –

서상,이상만 중국지역학회 2023 중국지역연구 Vol.10 No.1

In the process of China’s continuous development of reform and development, with the reform of the household registration system and urbanization, population movement has become a key phenomenon of economic development, and population movement between different regions has become more frequent. Guiyang, as a region of economic development in western China, has also been affected to some extent. In the process of rapid economic development, the size of Guiyang’s migrant population continues to grow. Based on this background, this paper introduces the basic characteristics of the spatial pattern of the migrant population in Guiyang and explains the spatial and temporal changes in the spatial pattern of the migrant population in Guiyang, which is a key strategic issue in the process of modernization of the city. Guiyang is a rapidly developing region in western China, and based on the background of the new western development, Guiyang City attracts a large number of migrant populations to visit, live, work, and study in Guiyang through its unique advantages. The large influx of people provides talents for Guiyang’s economic development and plays an important role in the process of economic development. In addition, it also causes social crimes and insufficient social security. Guiyang needs to effectively solve the problem of the migrant population in the process of economic growth transformation and stable economic development, and it is a key issue that needs to be solved to make Guiyang an influential regional growth pole and a central city in western China. With the rapid development of the market economy, there are significant opportunities for the upgrading and adjustment of China’s industrial structure. The coordination between industrial structure and employment structure will still have an important impact on macroeconomic development. Especially since the launch of the strategy of developing the country through science and education and strengthening the country through talents, employment in higher education is also closely related to the development of the industrial structure of the region. We propose specific optimization strategies to promote the synergy of industrial structure and higher education employment structure in the Guiyang region of western China in order to accelerate the region’s economic development. The industrial structure has a decisive influence on the employment structure, and the employment structure can in turn influence the industrial structure and other economic structures. The coordination between industrial structure and employment structure has a significant impact on the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure and the adequate and rational allocation of labor resources. In this paper, the coordination of industrial structure and employment structure in Guiyang is analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively through several indicators. It measures whether the development between the two is relevant and how it needs to be adjusted in the future to achieve sustainable development.

우리나라 고용구조의 특징과 과제

장근호 한국은행 2019 經濟分析 Vol.25 No.1

As the Korean economy grew, employment expanded steadily, with the number of economically active people increasing and the employment-to-population rate also increasing. However, the working age population started to decline in 2017, and the employment of women and young people has been sluggish. The proportion of non-salaried workers in Korea is much higher than in other OECD countries, and is also excessive, considering Korea’s income levels. In addition, the proportion of non-regular workers and the proportion of workers employed at small companies are particularly high among salaried workers. In light of these characteristics of Korean employment, the urgent problems facing the employment structure can be summarized by the deepening dual structure of the labor market, the increase in youth unemployment, sluggish female employment figures, and an excessive share of self-employment. Overall, it is seen that labor market duality is the main structural factor of the employment problems in Korea. Therefore, in order to fundamentally address this employment problem, it is necessary to concentrate policy efforts on alleviating labor market duality. 우리 경제가 성장하면서 경제활동인구가 늘고 고용률이 높아지는 등 고용이 양적으로 꾸준히 성장하였다. 그러나 생산가능인구가 2017년부터 감소하기 시작하였고 여성 및 청년층의 고용은 부진한 상황이다. 비임금 근로자의 비중이 다른 나라나 소득 수준에 비해 크게 높은 수준이다. 또한 임금근로자 중 비정규직 비중과 소규모 기업 종사 근로자의 비중이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 고용구조의 특징에 비추어 우리나라 고용구조의 과제는 노동시장 이중구조 심화, 청년실업 증가, 여성 고용의 부진, 저생산성의 과도한 자영업 비중 등으로 정리할 수 있다. 노동시장 이중구조가 심화된 데는 글로벌화에 따른 경쟁 심화, 대기업 우위의 원·하청관계, 대·중소기업 간 생산성 격차, 기업규모별 노동조합의 교섭력 격차 및 기업단위 노사협상 등의 제도적 요인이 복합적으로 작용하였다. 청년실업은 대학진학률 상승으로 대졸자들이 크게 증가한 반면 노동시장 이중구조화로 1차 노동시장 규모가 늘지 않은 데다 대졸자들의 2차 노동시장 기피현상이 심화된 것을 주된 배경으로 한다. 낮은 여성 고용률과고용의 질적 수준은 결혼 ․ 출산 이후의 뚜렷한 경력단절에 기인하며 가정과 직장생활을 병행하기 어렵게 하는 제도 및 문화가 근본적인 원인으로 보인다. 생산성이 낮은 자영업자가 과다한 데에는 임금근로자 일자리가 충분하지 않고 노동시장 이중구조로 인해 양질의 임금근로자 일자리에 취업하기 힘들다는 점이 주요한 배경으로 작용하였다. 우리나라의 고용 확대를 제약하고 고용구조를 악화시킨 주된 구조적 요인은 이중구조 심화인 것으로 판단되는 만큼 공정거래 질서 확립과 중소기업의 생산성 향상 등 노동시장 이중구조 완화에 정책 역량을 집중할 필요가 있다. 아울러 청년 노동시장의 효율성을 제고할 수 있도록 직업훈련 및 고용지원서비스 제도를 개선하는 한편 보육시설 확충 등 여성들이 일과 가정이 병행할 수 있도록 하는 제도적 보완을 지속해 나가는 것도 중요하다.

정부지출과 고용구조 간의 거시적 연관성에 관한 실증연구: 지역패널자료를 중심으로

동진우,김영덕 한국경제통상학회 2018 경제연구 Vol.36 No.2

This paper examines the relationship between employment structure and local fiscal expenditures using regional panel data in South Korea during from 1999 to 2014. In particular, the national employment strategy implemented in 2006 fundamentally was different from employment policy in the previous period. Therefore, we present that the effects of fiscal expenditures separated into before and after 2006 were estimated. And we compare and analyze these results. Moreover, to deal with endogeneity problems of using lagged variables as covariates, we estimate our model utilizing system GMM. We show results follow as: First, increasing national fiscal expenditures significantly affected on employment structure compared with regional fiscal expenditures. Second, fiscal expenditures is relevant to increasing irregular employment rather than regular employment. Futhermore, After 2006, when the employment strategy changed, the share of non-regular workers and self-employment is higher than that of regular workers on increasing national fiscal expenditures. It implies that fiscal expenditures with transformed employment strategy has a role in the change of employment structure. 본 연구는 2000년부터 2014년까지 우리나라의 16개 시도를 대상으로 재정지출과 고용구조 간의 거시적 관계를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 2006년에 국가고용전략이 수립된 이래, 정부는 직접적으로 고용률을 관리하는 성격의 고용정책을 유지하였다. 이러한 고용정책의 변화가 재정지출과 고용구조 간의 거시적 관계에 영향을 미쳤을 수 있으므로, 2006년 이전과 이후로 시기를 구분하여 모형을 추정하고 그 결과를 비교·분석하였다. 또한, 종속변수의 시차변수가 가지는 내생성을 통제하기 위해 시스템GMM 모형을 활용하여 추정을 시행하였다. 분석결과, 지역보다 전국 재정지출의 증가가 고용구조에 유의미한 영향을 미쳤으며 재정지출의 증가는 상용직보다 비상용직 혹은 자영업자의 비중을 높이는 결과를 보였다. 특히, 고용전략이 변화한 2006년 이후를 살펴보면 전국재정지출의 증가는 비상용직 및 자영업자의 비중을 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 고용정책 변화 이후, 재정지출의 증가가 고용구조의 변화에 일정한 역할을 하고 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

산업구조변화가 고용 및 생산에 미치는 영향

전수민 ( Su-min Jeon ) 아시아.유럽미래학회 2021 유라시아연구 Vol.18 No.3

Changes in industrial structure contribute to stagnant productivity of the entire economy and slowing economic growth. Usually, when a country’s economic development enters a mature stage, there is a deindustrialization phenomenon in which the share of manufacturing is transferred to the share of the service industries, and Korea has been fast in the employment sector since the 1990s. This phenomenon leads to a gap in productivity growth rates between manufacturing and service industries. Recently, concerns have been raised that the distribution of resources among industries is not smooth due to the decline in labor productivity and economic growth in the 2010s. Accordingly, this study analyzed the changes in productivity related to the trend of labor productivity and looked at the characteristics of the Korean economy, recognizing that it needs to increase productivity between industries and allocate resources efficiently in order for it to leap out of its low growth trend. In addition, panel analysis was conducted on how changes in industrial structure affect the share of employment and production. The main results are summarised as follows: First of all, the effects of labor productivity factor decomposition were greater than static and dynamic effects in all industries, manufacturing and service industries. This led to a rise in overall labor productivity due to technological innovation being more effective than by employment movement or inter-sector interactions from 1993 to 2019. In addition, the signs of static and dynamic effects showed different results from industry to industry, but the negative signs of dynamic effects showed a greater shift in employment from a highly productive industry to a lower industry. This is the result of Baumol’s structural burden assumption on the Korean economy. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector has been redistributed from less productive to higher industries as a result of static and dynamic effects among detailed industries, but the effectiveness has been low. The service industry had different results in static and dynamic effects. These results mean that employment shifts rapidly to highly productive industries, while employment shifts from fast-growing to slow industries. Next, according to panel analysis, the share of employment and production by industry are affected by labor productivity, labor income share, capital intensity, export dependence and import dependence. Labor productivity has a negative impact on employment, but it has a positive impact on production. In general, labor productivity and employment may be expected to increase employment in industries with high labor productivity, but in practice, the consequences of the share of employment were not. This is the result of Baumol's hypothesis in panel analysis. The increase in labor income share also led to an increase in household income, driving aggregate demand or economic growth. On the other hand, the capital intensity differs depending on whether capital and labor are alternatives or complementary, in which all industries and manufacturing industries are shown to have an inverse relationship between employment and production as capital and labor are alternatives. On the other hand, the service industry acted as a complementary relationship to attract employment. Foreign direct investment is expected to have a negative impact on employment and production as it replaces domestic production and exports, but only in the manufacturing and service industries have a positive impact on employment. These results may vary slightly by industry, but they can be interpreted as the result of qualitative changes in domestic industries, such as the spread of the fourth industry, technological innovation, advancement and convergence of major industries. In addition, the higher the dependence on exports, the lower the dependence on imports, the positive effect on employment and production, and the decrease in the real effectiveness exchange rate (decrease in won value) on all industries and manufacturing alone, and increased the proportion of production. Finally, value added has played a strong role in increasing the share of employment. The results of the analysis confirmed that the distribution of resources from low-productivity industries to high industries should be done smoothly, but not in practice. Improving labor productivity was the driving force behind economic growth through increased production, but it was also a factor that reduced the proportion of employment. The share of employment by industry has been shown to play a greater role in supply-side factors such as labor productivity, than in demand-side factors such as added value. Accordingly, sophisticated industrial policies are needed to solve the problem of resource redistribution, and demand-based growth strategies are needed for employment and growth of manufacturing and service industries.

정년연장에 따른 고용형태 및임금체계 개편에 관한 연구(시론) - 일본의 고용연장사례를 통한 실증적 분석을 중심으로 -

이정 한국외국어대학교 법학연구소 2018 외법논집 Vol.42 No.2

Due to the increasingly aging population in Korea, legislation was passed in April 2013 that sets the retirement age at 60. The era of retirement at age 60 has started. The population of Korea is aging at an unprecedented rate, and precarious employment and high poverty risks for the elderly led to the introduction of a mandatory retirement age of 60. In particular, in spite of Korea’s seriously low birth rate and rapidly aging population, a lot of workers have been retiring from their companies in their early or mid-fifties. Of course, retirement is an inevitable consequence for workers; however, early retirement becomes a problem for a rapidly aging society. Moreover, a considerable number of retirees have difficulty receiving public pensions. Even when workers are entitled to receive a public pension, some workers experience an income gap period due to the increased age at which people are entitled to receive pensions. It is also difficult for the retired elderly to seek reemployment. In this regard, the purpose of introducing mandatory retirement at age 60 is positively assessed. However, unlike other developed countries that have been gradually raising the retirement age with a thorough preparatory period, Korea has experienced severe conflicts between labor and management regarding the reformed wage structure. This is the result of political compromise without any preparation. Meanwhile, the option of raising the retirement age to 65, like the Japanese have done, has been asserted from within political circles. In the long-term, in order to be ready for the super-aged society which Korean society will reach in 2026, creating an employment environment in which workers can work until they are 65 years old is a reasonable strategy. The important point is to create a base of social discussion for the employment extension and to design the system so it is more suitable for Korean reality and society. Given the experiences of the past, it is important to harmonize employment type and wage structure design with the employment extension to ensure the success of this employment policy. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze Japanese cases, since Japan has already experienced an aged society with regard to the legal arguments surrounding the employment extension due to the aging population. The paper then suggests creating comprehensive retirement legislation that includes employment type and wage structure, which Korean society needs to move toward the advent of an aged society. 우리나라에서도 고령화가 급속하게 진행되면서 2013년 4월에는 ‘법정정년 60세’를 의무화하는 입법이 국회를 통과하면서 ‘정년 60세 시대’가 개막되었다. 이처럼 60세 정년제를 도입하게 된 배경에는유례없이 빠르게 진행되고 있는 고령화와 고용불안, 노인층 빈곤 위험에 그 원인이 있다. 특히 최근들어 저출산의 영향으로 고령화 속도는 점점 가속화되고 있음에도 불구하고, 많은 근로자들이 ‘정년제’라는 이름하에 50대 초중반에 기업을 은퇴하고 있는 실정이다. 직장생활을 영위하는 근로자에 있어은퇴란 필연적인 것이지만, 향후 급격하게 진행된 고령사회에 대비하여 부합하지 않는 면이 있다. 뿐만 아니라, 은퇴자들의 상당수는 국민연금을 비롯한 공적연금의 수혜를 받지 못하고 있으며, 그나마국민연금을 수령하는 경우에도 점점 수급연령이 상향조정됨에 따라 은퇴 후 당분간 소득에 공백이 생길 가능성이 있으며, 은퇴한 고령자가 재취업하기도 매우 어려운 실정이다. 위와 같은 현실을 고려하여 60세 정년제를 도입하게 된 취지에 대해서는 대체로 공감하며 매우 긍정적이라 평가할 수 있다. 하지만, 우리나라의 경우, 사전에 철저한 준비기간을 거쳐 점진적으로 정년을 연장해 온 선진국과는 달리, 아무런 준비 없이 전격적인 정치적 타협이 선행된 결과, 임금체계의개편 등을 둘러싸고 심각한 노사분쟁을 경험한 바 있다. 한편 최근 정치권에서는 과거의 노사갈등을 의식한 탓인지 일본식을 모델로 하여 65세까지 고용을연장하는 주장이 제기되고 있다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 초고령사회로의 진입( ‘26년)에 대비하여 65세까지 일할 수 있는 고용환경을 조성하는 것은 당연히 요구되는 시대적 과제로 생각된다. 중요한 것은 우리 현실에 맞는 제도설계를 통하여 고용연장을 위한 사회적 논의기반을 조성하는 것이다. 과거의 경험에 비추어 이러한 고용정책이 연착륙되기 위해서는 고용연장에 따른 근로형태 및 임금체계를 어떻게조화롭게 설계할 것인가가 무엇보다 중요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 고령화에 따른 고용연장을 둘러싼 법적 논점에 대해 우리에 앞서 고령사회를이미 경험한 일본의 사례를 실증적으로 검토⋅분석한 다음, 향후 고령사회의 도래에 대비하여 우리사회가 지향해야할 정년법제(특히 고용형태 및 임금체계)의 기반구축에 대한 시론을 제시하였다. 특히, 일본의 경우 바로 65세까지 정년을 연장하지 않고 고용연장이라는 정책을 취한 다음, 사용자로 하여금 여러 가지 선택지(정년폐지, 65세까지 정년연장 또는 계속고용 등)를 제공하여 사실상 정년연장의효과를 유도한 것은 우리나라에서도 충분히 검토할 가치가 있다고 생각한다. 또한 고용연장으로 인하여 제기될 고용형태 및 임금체계에 대해서도 우리나라와는 달리 주무관청인 일본 후생노동성이 상세한 가이드라인을 통하여 연착륙할 수 있도록 설계한 점은 향후 우리가 고령자고용정책을 수립함에 있어 매우 유익한 선례라고 생각된다.

지역별 고용격차 결정요인: 산업구조의 비대칭적 특화를 중심으로

박성익 ( Sung Ik Park ) 한국국제경제학회 2012 국제경제연구 Vol.18 No.2

본 논문은 지역 간 고용격차의 원인을 산업구조의 비대칭적인 특화와 관련시킴으로써, 산업구조가 지역별 고용에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 분석하였다. 구체적으로, 산업구조가 선진적인 지역과 후진적인 지역 중에서 어느 지역의 고용성과가 더 우월한지를 분석하였다. 본 논문의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째로, 기술집약도를 고려한 산업구조 지수의 시간적인 추이를 보면, 산업구조의 변화가 별로 없었음을 알 수가 있다. 그러나 지역에 따라서는 주목할 만한 변화가 보이는 경우가 있다. 둘째, 지역별 고용비중을 나타낸 여러 지표에 의하면, 수도권의 고용비중이 타 지역을 압도하고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 수도권으로의 고용집중이 더 심화되고 있다는 것을 알 수 있다. 셋째, 산업구조가 선진적인 지역일수록 타 지역대비 고용비중이 더 증가한다는 결과가 도출되었다. 이는 산업구조의 선·후진성 여부에 따라 지역 간 고용비중의 격차가 더 심화될 것임을 시사한다. 비록 기술집약적 산업의 고용유발효과가 더 작기는 하지만, 집적 및 외부성 효과로 인하여 고용비중이 더 커지기 때문이다. This paper analyses the effect of industrial structure on regional employment, relating the determinant of regional employment gap to the asymmetrical industrial structure. Specifically, it is studied which region, advanced region or under-developed region in terms of industrial structure has better employment performance. Major results are the followings: First, there has not been much change in industrial structure from the viewpoint of technological complexity. However, in some regions, changes are notable. Second, it is shown that the employment share of Seoul metropolitan area dominates those of other areas and keeps increasing. Third, it is noted that the more its industrial structure is advanced, the bigger the employment share is. This suggests that the regional employment gap is likely to become bigger depending on the degree of complexity of the industrial structure.

세계화와 고용의 장기관계 : 패널공적분 기법을 활용한 분석

윤재형 한국산업경제학회 2018 산업경제연구 Vol.31 No.6

This study analyzed the long-run relationship between globalization and employment based on the panel cointegration approach. From the analysis, globalization, employment, and production have cointegration relationships. The direct effect of globalization on employment was also negative in the long run. On the other hand, globalization, defined by trade size, positively affects employment through the production increase in the long run. If production is included in the model, globalization, defined as trade size, has reduced employment. On the other hand, globalization, defined as import size, reduces absolute employment in the long run as production is replaced by imports. Globalization, defined as import size, reduced employment even when production was controlled. In addition, the effect of employment by industry on globalization showed a significant difference. Moreover, it is inconsistent whether the relative decline in employment is greater in industries with more globalization. In the VECM analysis, we find out that the employment decline is greater when globalization leads to an increase in import size rather than an increase in trade size. That is, globalization can expand employment through economic growth, but employment can be reduced if imports replace domestic production. Therefore, industrial policy and tax policy that can link the achievement of economic growth through globalization to employment expansion are required. 본 연구는 세계화와 고용과의 연관관계를 패널공적분 접근법을 적용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 세계화, 고용, 생산은 공적분관계가 존재하였다. 또한 고용에 대한 세계화의 직접적인 효과는 장기적으로 부정적이었다. 반면, 교역규모로 정의된 세계화는 장기적으로 생산을 증가시키는 경로를 통해 간접적으로 고용에 긍정적으로 영향을 미쳤다. 즉 생산이 통제되면 교역규모로 정의된 세계화는 고용과 음(-)의 관계를 나타내나, 생산이 통제되지 않으면 고용과 양(+)의 관계를 보인다. 한편 수입규모로 정의된 세계화는 생산이 수입으로 대체됨에 따라 장기적으로 고용과 음(-)의 관계를 보인다. 수입규모로 정의된 세계화는 생산이 통제된 경우에도 고용과 음(-)의 관계였다. 또한 세계화에 대한 산업별 고용의 영향은 유의미한 차이를 보였다. 이와 더불어 세계화가 더 이루어진 산업에서 상대적으로 고용의 감소가 더 크느냐의 문제는 일관성 있는 결과를 보여주지 못했다. 단기적인 연관관계를 평가하기 위한 패널 VECM분석에서 세계화로 인해 교역규모가 증가한 경우보다 수입이 증가한 경우, 고용 감소 폭이 더 크다는 점을 보였다. 즉 세계화는 경제성장을 통해 고용을 확대시킬 수 있지만, 수입이 국내생산을 대체하면 고용을 감소시킬 수도 있다. 무엇보다 산업마다 세계화의 영향은 다르게 나타난다. 따라서 세계화를 통한 경제성장의 성과를 고용확대로 연결시킬 수 있는 산업정책 및 조세정책이 요구된다고 하겠다.

영국사에 대한 새 전망 : 연구논문 ; 19세기 말 런던 부두의 고용 구조와 신조합의 성격 변화

남미전 ( Mi Jeon Nam ) 영국사학회 2005 영국연구 Vol.14 No.-

Thanks to the surplus of labor forces, the London Dock could make most of its works fully dependent on manual labourers even till the late 19th century. For those labourers, employment security was always a critical issues. Especially dockers keenly competed with each other to be employed. As they made efforts for ensuring employment, dockers come to have their own internal characteristics which in turn were long kept among themselves. Conflicts and contradictions brought by such keen competition among dockers led to the London Dock Strike in 1889. The Dock Strike promoted the emergence of the New Unionism (hereinafter referred to as New Unions) which sought towards a General Union. Led by Dock, Wharf, Riverside and General Laborers` Union of Great Britain and Ireland (hereinafter referred to as Dockers` Union), the New Unions extended its forces into many different industries, playing a critical role in organizing unskilled labourers. But the New Unions gave up its General Union policy since 1893, and almost returned to old unions it once criticized. So far, structures of docker employment have been just mentioned as a part of discussing poor conditions of dock work or recognized as one of conflicts between dockers and their employers that may lead to the Dock Strike by the dockers. Main issues of studies about the New Unions have been backgrounds behind which the union emerged and the significance of the organization in the history of labor movement. Previous discussions about the cause of the abandonment of General Union policy by the New Unions focused mainly on external changes of the late 19th century and the fluidity of casual labourers themselves. There`s another reason why the New Unions abandoned its General Union policy on a continuum that ran from the employment structure of dockers to their the Dock strike and to the emergence of New Unions. It should be noted that the New Unions gave up its General Union policy because of not only external, but also internal factors. The abandonment was not just a result from active measures by employers or coping with structural changes in the then British economy. Besides such measures or coping, there was another important reason of the abandonment. Dockers` Union was a major part of the New Unions. It may be no doubt that internal characteristics of the dockers affected changes in policies of the New Unions. Thus it is important to clarify how Dockers` Union affected the New Unions by investigating characteristics of dockers. In the late 19th century, timber and grain porters of the London dock were classified as skilled labourers who could exert their own vested rights in relation to employment. At that time, permanent labourers of the dock were relatively secure in employment. The London dock had a pre-modern employment structure under which jobs were transmitted or, otherwise, allocated by persons having rights to employ in their discretion. These contradictory job conditions provoked exclusive characteristics of dockers and further conflicts among them. Dissatisfied about such conditions, the dockers rallied Dock Strike, bringing changes to the dock itself. The Dock Strike brought all labourers of the dock to be united once. But the labourers were disrupted and conflicted with each other as they face problems such as increase in the number of casual labourers, unstable employment and poverty brought by British economic crisis since 1890. Under these circumstances, the leadership of Dockers` Union tried to keep the matter of employment security as one of their vested rights and take exclusive rights in relation to their specialized work, resulting in the abandonment of General Union policy by the New Unions. A major part of the New Unions was Dockers` Union whose internal characteristics undoubtedly played a critical role in changing policies of the old unions. Employment security is always a key concern to all labourers. Under various external changes in the late 19th cen

Formation of Employment Subcenters and Regional Industry Restructuring: Focusing Wholesale and Retail Sector in Incheon

Byong-Kook Yoo,Soon-Hong Kim 한국유통과학회 2020 유통과학연구 Vol.18 No.2

Purpose: This study examines the relationship between formation of employment subcenters and regional industrial structures in Incheon. Research design, data, and methodology: We used the five-year panel data from 2012 to 2016 in 146 basic municipal units of Incheon to analyze panel regression models. Gross employment density and employment to population ratio were used as indicators of employment subcenters formation. The entropy index and Hachman index were used for analyzing the diversity and heterogeneity of industrial structures. Result: The analyses of two panel regression models showed that for the formation of employment subcenters, both the Entropy and Hachman index were significantly negative in most models. But tertiary industry was shown to have a significant positive relationship in all models. In the wholesale and retail sector, it was found that the average number of employees in the employment subcenters is significantly higher than that in the non-employment subcenters. Conclusions: The specialization of the industrial structure rather than the diversification contributes to the formation of the employment subcenters in Incheon. In particular, it can be considered that the wholesale and retail sector plays a very important role in forming the employment subcenters in many areas of Incheon.

A Study on Employment-centric Industries in Incheon Using Machine Learning Method

Byong Kook Yoo,Soon Hong Kim 한국유통과학회 2017 한국유통과학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2017 No.-

The industrial structure in Incheon has a very significant difference compared with the change in the industrial structure of the whole country. Thus, reflecting those differences, the unemployment rate in Incheon has always been higher than the national average. The purpose of this study is to identify the employment - oriented industries in Incheon area using machine learning techniques. First, the relationship between employment ratio and employment by industry was examined through regression analysis. Second, we examined the characteristics of industrial areas with high employment rate through decision tree analysis. Third, a random forest model was used to predict regional employment changes. Through such a machine learning model, the Incheon area still has a base of traditional manufacturing, but it is characterized by the expansion of the service industry such as wholesale and retail business. Machine learning methods have multiple tools analyzing and reporting complicated non-linear relationship in data effectively. In addition, a random forest model was used to predict employment changes due to industrial structure changes. This machine learning model shows that beverage manufacturing industry has the highest employment rate in Incheon and expansion of service industry such as wholesale and retail business is prominent.