차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조사업 경제적 타당성 분석: 비용효과 분석을 중심으로

정재호 ( Jung Jae Ho ),정영선 ( Jung Young Sun ) 배재대학교 한국-시베리아센터 2021 한국시베리아연구 Vol.25 No.1

북극은 지구 기후시스템을 모두 갖춘 기후변화 연구의 중심지이자, 미래자원의 보고 및 경제발전의 통로로서 중요성이 증가하고 있다. 동시에 북극의 연구수요도 급증하고 있음에 따라 차세대 쇄빙연구선의 건조 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 차세대 쇄빙연구선의 건조에 대한 경제적 타당성을 검토하고자 한다. 국가연구개발사업의 경제성 분석은 예비타당성조사 대상 사업의 국민경제적 파급효과와 투자 적합성을 분석하는 핵심적 조사과정으로 비용-편익분석(Cost-Benefit Analysis)을 기본적인 방법론으로 채택하여 분석한다. 하지만 순수 R&D 사업과 기타 재정사업 등 비용-편익 분석이 적합하지 않다고 판단되는 사업의 경우, 비용-효과분석(Cost-Effectiveness Analysis)을 수행한다. 비용효과분석은 ‘고정효과접근법(Fixed effectiveness approach)’과 ‘고정비용접근법(Fixed budget approach)’으로 구분되며 동 연구에서는 동일 효과 대비 비용을 비교하는 고정효과접근법을 활용하였다. 경제성 분석을 위해 ‘차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조(원안)’를 기준으로 3가지의 대안(대안 1. 쇄빙연구선 임차 / 대안 2. 외국 내빙연구선 및 쇄빙선 임차 / 대안 3. 쇄빙 화물선 건조, 아라온 개조 및 외국 쇄빙연구선 임차)을 설정하였다. 또한 원안 기준 대안의 효과를 동일하게 보정하기 위해 ‘연구 항해일 수 확대’와 ‘운항예비일 확보’를 활용하였다. 경제성 분석 결과, 총비용(현가)은 차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조(원안)가 3가지 대안 대비 약 111.7 ~ 2,699.5억 원 낮게 투입되어 경제적으로 타당성이 입증 되었다. 또한 동 연구는 대안의 실현 가능성과 운영상의 효율성을 고려할 때, 차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조가 가장 합리적인 방안임을 주장한다. 본 연구는 현재 기획 중인 사업에 대한 경제적 타당성을 분석하였다는 점에서 시의적절한 연구이자, 비용-편익분석을 대체하여 비용-효과분석을 수행하였다는 점에서 이론적으로 기여한다. 다만 아직 추진이 확정되지 않은 사업임에 따라 일부 자료 및 분석과정을 비공개로 진행하였다. 차세대 쇄빙연구선의 건조 여부가 확정되지 않았지만, 경제성 측면에서의 타당성은 입증된 만큼 연구수요 등의 기술 및 정책적 타당성이 입증되어 사업 추진이 조속히 이루어 짐에 따라 극지해역 과학플랫폼 확보, 과학외교 기반 국가 위상 제고, 북극항로 개척 및 안전운항, 미래 에너지자원 정보획득의 효과를 창출하기를 기대한다. North Pole increases importance because of central of climate change research that gear up climate system of earth, future resource and way of economic growth. Because North Pole increases importance, Research demand of North Pole is more increase and necessity of Next-generation IBRV(Ice Breaker Research Vessel) building is to come near. This study to identify economic cogency for Next-generation IBRV building through research demand of North Pole and takes best alternative through economic analysis to comparing Next-generation IBRV building block and others. Economic analysis of national R&D business is a core investigation process for economic ripple effect and investment satisfaction and Cost-Benefit Analysis is a standard process, but Cost-Effectiveness Analysis is suitable for pure R&D business and others. The analysis method is classified into two categories such as Fixed effectiveness approach and Fixed budget approach, the latter approach is used in this study. For economic analysis, three alternatives were established based on "the construction of Next-generation IBRV" (Alternative 1. Leasing of foreign IBRV / Alternative 2. Leasing of foreign icebreakers and RV / Alternative 3. Leasing of icebreakers, Araon modification and foreign IBRV). In addition, ‘expanding the number of days of research navigation’ and ‘securing the days of operation’ were utilized to equally correct the effectiveness of the original reference alternative. Resulting analysis of total cost to fixed effect model of cost effect analysis is that alternative1 low 11~27 billion won comparing other alternatives. In addition, considering the feasibility of alternatives and operational efficiency, it is suggested that the construction of Next-generation IBRV is the most reasonable measure. This study is timely in that it analyzes the economic feasibility of the project currently being pursued, and theoretically contributes to the use of cost-effectiveness analysis as an alternative to cost-benefit analysis. However, since the project has not yet been finalized, some data and analysis processes have been carried out behind closed doors. Although the construction of the Next-generation IBRV has yet to be confirmed, it is hoped that the feasibility of research demand and other projects will be proved as soon as possible as the feasibility of the Next-generation IBRV has been proven. And it will create the effects such as securing a science platform in the polar sea, enhancing the national status based on science and diplomacy, pioneering and safe operation of the Arctic route, and obtaining information on future energy resources.

변혁적 리더십이 팀・개인 효과성에 미치는 영향에 관한 다수준 분석: 팀・개인 창의성의 매개 효과를 중심으로

박동호,윤필현 한국기업경영학회 2015 기업경영연구 Vol.22 No.6

In recent times, the research aiming at exploring the process of a team & individual’s effectiveness enhancement in the organizational behavior field is in active progress, in which creativity is handled as a major variable having an influence on effectiveness. However reality is that the research which explores the process of a team & individual’s effectiveness improvement through creativity is still in an insufficient state. Accordingly, this study looked into the mediated effect of creativity, which forms at a level of a team and an individual as a result of team members’ cognition of a team leader’s leadership in terms of social cognitive theory, on effectiveness. This study results are summarized as follows: First, this study could confirm the significant partial mediated effect of individual creativity in the relations between transformational leadership cognized at a level of a team and individual effectiveness. Individual creativity has significant mediating effects (partial mediation) on the relationship between transformational leadership and individual effectiveness perceived by individuals at the team level. The findings verify the following. First, the sub-variables of transformational leadership(inspirational motivation, consideration for individuals, intellectual stimulation) mainly focus on the relationship between a leader and individuals. The fact that transformational leadership, which influences the sub-variables, enhances individual effectiveness by affecting the creativity of individuals has been verified. Second, team creativity has no mediating effects on the relationship between perceived transformational leadership perceived at a team level and the team effectiveness. It implies that transformational leadership is a prerequisite to enhancing team creativity and team effectiveness. Also, team creativity can serve as a prerequisite that affects team effectiveness. However, there is a limited mechanism among all the variables. Thus, the effects of transformational leadership and team creativity should be distinguished in enhancing the effectiveness at the team level. Also the following analysis and debate should be needed for the role of transformational leadership as the preceding variable. This study is significant in that it proves the effects of transformational leadership as a team-level variable affecting the individual-level variables. The findings are significant for the following reasons. First, the influence of transformational leadership on individual effectiveness was verified through a multi-level analysis. It can identify the mediating effects of individual creativity on the relevance of variables measured at different levels based on social cognitive theory. Second, this study proves the top-down process where transformational leadership perceived at a team level affects individual effectiveness through individual creativity. There is a need to carry out the following analysis regarding variables that can make the mediation or connection with transformational leadership, team creativity and team effectiveness at a team level. Also, the effects of creativity can be more clearly analyzed provided that more studies about individual & team creativity and effectiveness are proceeded. It is because the aim of enhancing creativity is the effectiveness including fruits. In particular, it would be more specific analysis of the effect on transformational leadership. 근래에 조직 행동 분야에서 팀과 개인의 효과성 증진 과정에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있으며, 창의성은 효과성에 영향을 미치는 주요 변수로 다루어지고 있다. 하지만 창의성을 통해 팀과 개인의 효과성을 증진하는 과정 탐색의 연구는 아직 부족한 실정이다. 이에 따라 본 연구는 사회인지이론 관점에서 팀 구성원들이 팀장의 리더십을 인지하고, 그 결과로 팀과 개인수준에서 형성되는 창의성이 효과성에 영향을 미치는 매개적 효과를 살펴보았다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 팀 수준에서 인지된 팀장의 변혁적 리더십이 개인 효과성에 영향을 미치는 관계에서 개인 창의성의 부분 매개 효과가 정(+)의 방향으로 유의하게 나타났다. 둘째, 팀이 인지한 변혁적 리더십과 팀 효과성 간의 관계에서 팀 창의성은 매개적 효과가 없는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구의 결과가 지니는 의미는 변혁적 리더십이 개인 효과성에 영향을 미치는 관계에서, 개인 창의성이 갖는 매개적 효과를 사회인지이론의 근거로 다수준 분석방법을 통해서 실증하였고, 팀 수준에서 인지된 변혁적 리더십이 개인 창의성을 통해 개인 효과성에 영향을 미치는 하향식(top-down) 프로세스를 검증하였다는 점이다. 향후 후속연구로서 팀 수준에서는 변혁적 리더십, 팀 창의성과 팀 효과성을 연결하거나 조정할 수 있는 변인에 대한 후속 연구가 필요하다.

Strategic Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Improving National Cancer Screening Uptake in Cervical Cancer: A Focus on Regional Inequality in South Korea

이태훈,김우림,신재용,박은철,박소희,김태현 대한암학회 2018 Cancer Research and Treatment Vol.50 No.1

Purpose The purpose of this study was to conduct a cost effectiveness analysis of strategies designed to improve national cervical cancer screening rates, along with a distributional cost effectiveness analysis that considers regional disparities. Materials and Methods Cost effectiveness analysis was conducted using a Markov cohort simulation model, with quality adjusted life years as the unit of effectiveness. The strategies considered were current (biennial Papanicolaou smear cytology of females aged 20 or above), strong screening recommendation by mail to target regions (effect, 12% increase in screening uptake; cost, 1,000 Korean won per person), regular universal screening recommendation by mail (effect, 6% increase in screening uptake; cost, 500 Korean won per person), and strong universal screening recommendation by mail (effect, 12% increase in screening uptake; cost, 1,000 Korean won per person). Distributional cost effectiveness analysis was conducted by calculating the cost effectiveness of strategies using the Atkinson incremental cost effectiveness ratio. Results All strategies were under the threshold value, which was set as the Korean gross domestic product of $25,990. In particular, the ‘strong screening recommendation to target regions’ strategy was found to be the most cost effective (incremental cost effectiveness ratio, 7,361,145 Korean won). This was also true when societal inequality aversion increased in the distributional cost effectiveness analysis. Conclusion The ‘strong screening recommendation to target regions’ strategy was the most cost effective approach, even when adjusting for inequality. As efficiency and equity are objectives concurrently sought in healthcare, these findings imply a need to develop appropriate economic evaluation methodologies to assess healthcare policies.

방염복의 인간공학적 평가 및 비용 대비 효과 분석

정정림(Jeong Rim Jeong),조자영(Ja Young Cho),연수민(Soo Min Yeon),장준호(Joon Ho Chang),김희은(Hee Eun Kim),유희천(Hee Cheon You) 대한인간공학회 2010 대한인간공학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.10

The present study was to (1) develop an ergonomic evaluation system for the systematic analysis of flame-proof clothing (2) comprehensively examine the effectiveness of clothing improvement by using the relationship analysis between clothing design components (D) and ergonomic evaluation measures (E) and (3) prove the usefulness of cost-effectiveness analysis for clothing design optimization. An ergonomic evaluation system for flame-proof clothing was established which consists of four analysis categories (clothing construction, user demographics, work and environment, and usability metrics). By applying the proposed system, the field survey to workers found a comprehensive set of problems on the flame-proof clothing design. The laboratory experiment identified additional design problems using a questionnaire that was developed based on a relationship analysis between D and E. The cost effectiveness analysis is comprised of the preliminary evaluation based on expertise and the in-depth evaluation where the D-E relationship analysis is applied. As a result of the cost effectiveness analysis applied to flame-proof clothing, an optimal design was identified by analyzing costs and qualitative/quantitative effects. It was concluded that the D-E relationship analysis and the cost-effectiveness analysis are useful for comprehensive evaluation and optimization of flame-proof clothing design.

정량·정성적 분석방법을 활용한 자연재해위험지구 정비사업 효과분석

허보영,Heo. Bo Young 한국방재학회 2013 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.13 No.3

본 연구에서는 자연재해위험지구 정비사업의 질적 수준제고를 위하여 지금까지 수행된 자연재해위험지구 정비사업에 대해 정량 정성적인 방법으로 효과성을 분석했으며, 분석결과를 자연재해위험지구 정비사업의 지속적이고 안정적인 예산확보 필요성을 설명하는 기초자료로 활용하고자 하였다. 자연재해위험지구 정비사업의 효과를 분석하기 위해 국내외 유사사업의 효과분석 사례를 조사하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 정비사업에 대한 효과분석 방법을 제시하였다. 효과분석은 크게 정량적 분석과 정성적 분석으로 구분하였다. 정량적 분석은 비용편익분석을 활용하였으며, 정성적 분석은 설문조사를 통해 (1) 만족도, (2) 정비사업 전 후의 피해경감효과를 분석하였으며, 더불어 일반적으로 설문조사를 통해 알 수 있는 기술적 통계분석 결과 외에 자연재해위험지구 정비사업과 유사한 공공사업인 농업, 산림, 수산업 등의 정책평가에서 사용된 구조방정식모형을 통한 (3) 타당성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 정량적 분석에서는 비용편익비가 1이상을 나타냈으며, 정성적 분석에서도 사업에 대한 효과를 긍정적으로 느끼고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 더불어 분석된 효과는 정비사업의 예산확보에 기여 및 향후 정비사업의 효율적인 추진방향 설정에도 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. In this study, the effect analysis of the Maintenance Project on Natural Disaster Prone Areas was analysed quantitatively as well as qualitatively in order to improve the quality of the project. The result obtained from this analysis is used as fundamental data to acquire the continuous and stable budget status. In order to analyze the effectiveness of rehabilitation projects of natural disaster risk districts, the cases of effectiveness analysis of similar projects at home and abroad were investigated, and based on this, the methods of effectiveness analysis on rehabilitation projects were presented. The effectiveness analysis was divided roughly into the quantitative analysis and the qualitative analysis. The quantitative analysis utilized the cost-benefit analysis, and the qualitative analysis conducted the analysis through the questionnaire survey on (1) the degree of satisfaction and (2) the damage reduction effectiveness before and after the rehabilitation projects, and (3) the validity analysis through, besides the results of descriptive statistical analysis generally obtained by questionnaire survey, the structural equation model used in the policy evaluation of agriculture, forestry, and fishery industry projects, which are the public projects similar to the rehabilitation projects of natural disaster risk districts. The results of the analysis showed that, in the quantitative analysis, the cost-benefit analysis ratio was more than 1, and also in the qualitative analysis, the effectiveness of the projects was positively perceived. The results of such analysis are expected to contribute to securing the budget for the rehabilitation projects and to be utilized to establish the direction of efficiently promoting the rehabilitation projects going forward.

동아시아 제조업 업종별 고용효과의 DEA를 활용한 분석 -한국의 경남지역을 중심으로-

민대기 ( Daiki Min ),구훈영 ( Hoonyoung Koo ) 아시아.유럽미래학회 2017 유라시아연구 Vol.14 No.1

Along with the recent economic recession in Korea, employment growth has been submerged in stagnation. In developing the industrial policy, not only the economic growth but also the size and quality of employment has gained increasing attention. This paper evaluates the employment effectiveness of manufacturing industry in Gyeongnam province with aims to identify industry sub-categories that are competitive across manufacturing industry and Korea in terms of employment effectiveness. We also provide some findings and implications meaningful for designing an effective industrial policy. We first investigates the employment size, employment coefficient and added value ratio of 22 manufacturing industry sub-categories in Gyeongnam province. The analysis shows that the manufacturing industry is major contributor to the employment, but there are significant difference in the employment size and its variance across industry sub-categories. The conventional measures such as employment coefficient fail to consider employment quality and industry size. To overcome these drawbacks, we employ Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) model, which is capable of handling multiple inputs and outputs, and measure the employment effectiveness of Gyeongnam province in comparison with other cities and provinces in Korea. The DEA efficiency is defined by multiple inputs(equipment investment, R&D investment, employment size) and outputs(gross output, annual salary, changes in employment size). For each of 22 manufacturing industry sub-categories, a super-efficiency DEA model that has better discrimination power is used to rank 16 cities and provinces in Korea in order of employment effectiveness. There are six industry sub-categories ranked within the top 25%(i.e., 1∼4 ranks), and eight sub-categories are ranked within the top 25%∼50%(5∼8 ranks). The numbers of industry sub-categories ranked within the top 50~75%(9∼12 ranks) and the low 25%(13∼16 ranks) are seven and one, respectively. In overall, the manufacturing industry in Gyeongnam province has relatively better employment effectiveness com-pared to other cities and provinces in Korea. Further DEA analysis shows that excessive equipment invest-ment, too many employees and slow employment growth mainly contribute to the low employment effectiveness. Finally, we classify 22 manufacturing industry sub-categories in Gyeongnam province into four groups with respect to the employment coefficient of each sub-categories and the rank obtained from DEA analysis. For example, nine manufacturing industry sub-categories(industry codes 10, 13, 14, 16, 21, 23, 25, 27, 32) are classified into Group I, which is high employment coefficient and high ranked industry sub-categories. It means that these nine industry sub-categories are competitive across manufacturing industry and Korea in terms of employment effectiveness. Based on the analysis, we provide several implications for improving the employment effectiveness in Gyeongnam province.

비용효과성분석을 통한 마이스터고등학교의 취업 성과 분석

고귀영,민지식,박자경 한국직업능력개발원 2021 직업능력개발연구 Vol.24 No.2

The purposes of this study were (i) to determine whether the employment outcomes of graduates of specialized high school and Meister high school show differences at the school level and (ii) to understand the effectiveness of Meister High School policy by comparing differences between schools in terms of cost-effectiveness. To this end, a Hierarchical Linear Model analysis and Cost-Effectiveness analysis were conducted using data from the 1st and 3rd years of the “Korea Education and Employment Panel Survey II” surveyed by the Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education & Training. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the effect on graduates’ wages is that Meister High Schools receive higher wages than specialized high schools. Each had an interactive effect. In the case of job satisfaction, which is the qualitative achievement of vocational high schools, interest in specialized subjects had a positive effect, and participation in-field experience and type of school had an interactive effect. As a result of analyzing the difference in cost-effectiveness, it was analysed that the cost-effectiveness of Meister High School on the employment rate was higher, and the cost-effectiveness of work satisfaction and job satisfaction were also higher in Meister High School. 이 연구는 특성화고등학교 및 마이스터고등학교 졸업생의 취업 성과가 학교 단위에서 차이를 보이는지 확인하고, 비용 효과성 측면에서 학교 간 차이를 비교하여 마이스터고등학교 정책의 효과성을 파악하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 이를 위해 한국직업능력개발원에서 조사한 ‘한국교육고용패널조사Ⅱ’의 1차년도와 3차년도 자료를 활용하여 다층모형 분석과 비용효과성 분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 졸업생의 임금에 대한 영향은 마이스터고등학교인 경우 특성화고등학교에 비해 더 많은 임금을 받는 것으로 나타났고, 성별과 학교 유형, 전문교과 흥미도와 학교유형, 전문교과 흥미도와 예산, 전공동아리와 학교유형이 각각 상호작용 효과를 가졌다. 직업계고등학교의 질적 취업 성과인 직장만족도의 경우 전문교과에 대한 흥미가 정적인 영향을 미쳤으며, 현장체험 참여여부와 학교 유형이 상호작용 효과를 나타냈다. 비용효과성 차이 분석결과 취업률에 대한 마이스터고등학교의 비용효과성이 더 높게 분석되었고, 업무만족도 및 직장만족도에 대한 비용효과성 역시 마이스터고등학교가 더 높은 것으로 나타났다.

SEM 기반 메타분석의 이론 및 적용 - Cheung의 접근법 중심으로

이현정,손수경,장유나,홍세희 한국심리학회 2018 한국심리학회지 일반 Vol.37 No.1

Recently, applications of structural equations and meta-analysis are increasing rapidly in many areas. The two methods have been used for different purposes in different fields. That is, structural equation modeling has been used for evaluating theoretical models, while meta-analysis has been applied to integrating individual studies. However, combing the two separate methods, meta-analysis can be done using structural equation modeling. In this study, SEM based meta-analysis was introduced and applied to empirical studies to demonstrate an example of analysis. We focused on the SEM based meta-analysis, which Cheung (2008, 2015) presented, and explained the method using Mplus. Our presentation was as follows: first, advantages of SEM-based meta-analysis were explained in detail in comparison with conventional meta-analysis. Next, SEM-based meta-analysis model(fixed-effects, random-effects, mixed-effects model) and analysis method were presented. For a real-data example, the effect sizes of empirical studies on the relationship between procrastination and academic self-efficacy were integrated and the effects of research characteristics as predictors were investigated. Finally, the implications of this study and future research directions were discussed. 구조방정식모형과 메타분석은 최근 들어 급격히 증가하고 있고 행동과학을 비롯한 모든 영역에서 활발히 적용하고 있는 방법론이다. 최근까지 두 방법론은 각자의 방식대로 발전해왔으며, 각각 서로 다른 연구에 적용되어 왔다. 즉, 구조방정식모형은 연구자가 제안한 연구모형의 검증에 활용되었고 메타분석은 단일 주제 연구들을 통합하는 데 적용되었다. 그러나 메타분석은 구조방정식의 프레임웤에서 수행할 수 있으며, 이 방법은 기존의 방식보다 더 많은장점을 지닌다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 구조방정식모형을 활용한 메타분석 방법론을 소개하고이를 실증연구에 적용하여 분석한 예시를 보여주고자 하였다. 최근 Cheung(2008, 2015)이 제시한 SEM 기반 메타분석 방법론을 중심으로 설명하였으며, 국내에서 구조방정식 분석 프로그램으로 널리 사용되고 있는 Mplus를 활용하여 분석할 수 있는 방법을 기술하였다. 구체적으로, 먼저 SEM 기반 메타분석의 장점을 기존의 메타분석과 대조하여 자세히 설명하였다. 다음으로 전통적인 메타분석 모형(고정효과, 임의효과, 혼합효과)에 대해 SEM에 기반한 접근법으로 모형을 설명하고 구체적인 분석 방법에 대해서 서술하였다. 또한 이러한 방법론을 적용한예시로서, 학업지연행동과 학업적 자기효능감의 관계에 대한 실증연구의 효과크기를 통합하고 조절변수로서 연구특성 변인의 효과를 검증하고자 하였다. 마지막으로 본 연구의 의의 및 향후 연구에 대해 논의하였다.

고정 효과 회귀분석 vs. 무선 효과 위계적 선형모델(HLM): 가족 구성 및 정보 프라이버시 염려가 비판적 정보 추구 행위에 미치는 영향

류성진 한국언론학회 2024 커뮤니케이션 이론 Vol.20 No.1

In the case of regression analysis, it is necessary to diagnose whether the assumptions such as linearity, normality, homoscedasticity, and independence of residuals, multicollinearity are satisfied before full-scale analysis. If some assumptions are not met, appropriate measures, such as data transformation, must be applied to the data to achieve valid and reliable analysis results only after full-scale analysis is performed after the assumptions are met. Textbooks or papers dealing with the diagnosis of residual linearity, normality, homoscedasticity, and multicollinearity among the various assumptions introduced earlier are not difficult to find in communication academia. However, papers and discussions on the assumption of independence are hard to find in those area. In this repect, the study aims to introduce the assumption of residual independence, diagnosis, and statistical analysis technique that can overcome violation of residual independence, that is, hierarchical linear model(hereinafter, HLM). If clustering occurs due to interactions among members within the group, residual independence may be violated, which leads to an increase in standard error, resulting in a problem of testing inappropriate statistical significance. HLM has the advantage of being able to test appropriate statistical significance in consideration of such residual non-independence. In this study, in order to clearly explain the characteristics of HLM, we tried to conduct a comparative analysis with the results of fixed effect regression analysis. Using 2023 media panel survey data, the two statistical analysis techniques presented above were applied to test the differences in the impact of information privacy concerns on media literacy according to family composition. As a result of the analysis, the effect on media literacy according to family composition was statistically significant in the fixed effect regression analysis, and the interaction between family composition and information privacy concerns on media literacy was significant. However, in the case of this regression analysis, Durbin Watson d statistics confirmed that the assumption of independence was violated, confirming that there is a possibility of committing a Type I error. To the contrary, HLM revealed that the average difference in random effects of influence on media literacy according to family composition and the difference in the slope of random effects of information privacy concerns on media literacy according to family composition were not statistically significant, either. This study confirmed that in the case of data that can violate the assumption of residual independence, that is, if group clustering is likely to occur, using HLM is an effect way to reduce Type I errors. 회귀분석의 경우 본격적인 분석에 앞서 잔차의 선형성, 정규성, 등분산성, 독립성, 다중공선성 등의 가정 충족 여부를 진단해야 한다. 만일 일부 가정이 충족되지 않을 경우, 데이터에 적절한 조치, 예를 들어, 데이터 변환 등을 통해 가정을 충족한이후분석을 실행할 때 타당하고 신뢰할 수 있는 분석 결과를 얻을 수 있다. 커뮤니케이션 학계에서는 앞서 소개한 잔차의 선형성, 정규성, 등분산성, 다중공선성에 대한 가정 진단을 다룬 교재나 논문을 어렵지 않게 접할 수 있다. 그러나 독립성 가정을 다룬 논문이나 논의는 의외로 찾기가 쉽지 않다. 이 점에 착안하여, 이 연구는 잔차의 독립성 가정 및 진단 방법을 소개하고자 한다. 더불어, 잔차의 독립성 위배를 극복할 수 있는 통계분석기법, 즉 위계적 선형모델(hierarchical linear model: HLM)도 함께 소개하고자 한다. 집단 내 구성원 간 상호작용으로 인한 군집화가 발생할 때 잔차 독립성은 위배될 가능성이 있으며, 이는 곧 표준오차의 증가로 이어져부적절한통계적유의성을검증하는문제가 발생한다. HLM은 이 같은 잔차의 비독립성을 고려하여 타당한 방식으로 통계적 유의성을 검증할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 이번 연구에서는 HLM의 특징을 명확하게 설명할 목적으로 기존 연구에서 일반적으로실행하는고정 효과 OLS 회귀분석의 결과와 비교분석을 진행했다. 2022년 미디어패널조사데이터를활용하여 가족 구성에따라정보 프라이버시 염려가 비판적 정보 추구 행위에 미치는 영향의 차이를 검정하기 위해 앞서 제시한 두 가지 통계분석기법을 적용하여 비교분석했다. 분석 결과, 고정 효과 OLS 회귀분석에서는 가족 구성에 따라 비판적 정보 추구 행위에 미치는 영향이 통계적으로 유의미했으며, 비판적 정보 추구 행위에 미치는 가족 구성과 정보 프라이버시 염려 간 상호작용은 유의미한 것으로 드러났다. 그러나 잔차 간 독립성 가정을 진단한 결과, 이 가정은 위배되었음이 밝혀졌고, 따라서 유의성 검증에 대한 제1종 오류를 범할 위험이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 이를 극복하기 위해 HLM을 실행한 결과, 가족 구성에 따라 비판적 정보 추구 행위에 미치는 영향의 무선 효과 평균 차이 그리고 가족 구성에 따라 정보 프라이버시 염려가 비판적 정보 추구 행위에 미치는 영향, 즉 무선 효과 기울기 차이는 통계적으로 유의미하지 않은 것으로 드러났다. 이번 연구 결과를 통해 잔차의 독립성 가정을 위배할 수 있는 데이터의 경우, 즉 집단의 군집화가 발생할 가능성이 있는 경우, 향후 연구자들은 HLM 사용을 신중하게 고려해 보길 이번 연구는 제안하고자 한다.

예방접종의 경제성 평가방법과 사례

천병철 ( Byung Chul Chun ) 대한소아감염학회 2008 Pediatric Infection and Vaccine Vol.15 No.1

The basis of the economic evaluation of vaccination is the balance between the use of the resources (input) and the improvements that result from the vaccination (output). Techniques used for economic evaluation of vaccination are cost analysis, cost-minimization analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis and cost-benefit analysis. Cost analysis seeks to characterize the costs of a given vaccination program. Cost-effective analysis is to helps policy-makers decide on the best use of allocated resources, whether costbenefit analysis is to helps policy-makers decide on the overall allocation of resources. Cost-utility analysis is a specific form of cost-effective analysis in which outcomes are reduced to a common denominator such as the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or disability- adjusted life year (DALY). Many economic analyses have been conducted on vaccines in the world, but there have been a little studies on economic evaluation on vaccines in Korea. This paper reviewed the methodology used to economic evaluation on vaccines and immunizations and addressed some examples of the methods. (Korean J Pediatr Infect Dis 2008;15:19-28)