기후변화의 사회적 파급효과 연구를 위한 기초적 검토

이희진 숭실사학회 2018 숭실사학 Vol.0 No.41

Climatic change, regarded as one of the factors that induced the cultural changes, have not been appropriately addressed. Because there is a lack of understanding the temporal scale of climatic changes with certain constrains in reconstructing paleo-environment based on proxy data and historical documents. Thus it is required to have a systematic framework for environmental research in archaeology. First, this paper briefly reviews the scales of climatic change and its social impacts. Centennial-scale climate changes are recognized in generations of the human society. In addition, it is noted that characteristics and limitations of three main evidence for reconstructing climatic changes, historical documents, archaeological data and paleo-environmental data, are varied in terms of resolution, interpretation and etc. Second, the direct and indirect-complex causation between climatic changes and social changes are discussed. The results of the direct impacts tend to be short-term, but that of indirect-complex impacts can be spread into the political, social, economic systems of the society. Lastly, two significant concepts and indirect-complex impacts, vulnerability and resilience, are introduced. Vulnerability determines the degree of social responses against climatic changes, on the other hand resilience is the society’s ability to mitigate the results of climatic changes. These make the indirect-complex social impacts of climatic changes. Several research cases are mentioned to explain the roles of resilience. This review aims at providing a simple guidance. It includes identification of climatic change’s temporal scales with the critical review of the evidence, recognition of direct or complex social impacts and the society’s vulnerability and resilience. It is believed that such concepts and considerations make environmental research in archaeology more tangible and realistic with diverse interpretative aspects. 기후변화는 선사와 고대문화 변동의 동인으로 자주 지목되지만, 고고학연구에서 그 영향과 사회적 파급효과의 실체에 대한 이해는 모호한 상태이다. 따라서 기후 관련된 고고학연구에 있어서 보다 체계적인 인식의 틀이 필요하며, 향후 이를 구축하기 위한 몇 가지 기초적 검토를 이 논문에서 시도하였다. 첫째, 시간적 규모에 따른 기후변화(수천 년, 수백 년, 수십 년, 수 년, 연내)의 종류와 특징 및 각 단위별로 인간사회에 미치는 영향력의 범위를 살펴보았다. 수백 년 단위부터 인간사회에 본격적으로 인식되기 시작한다. 그리고 이 같은 과거의 기후 변화를 파악하는데 주로 활용되는 문헌 자료, 고고학적 자료와 대리자료를 기반으로 한 고환경 자료는 시간의 정밀도와 해석의 방식 등에서 차이가 있으므로 기후를 복원하는데 있어 개별적 특성과 한계를 고려해야 한다. 둘째, 기후변화가 만드는 사회와 문화에의 직접적, 간접적이고 복합적인 영향에 대해 정리하였다. 직접적인 영향은 기후사건과 인과관계를 쉽게 인지할 수 있고, 사회적 피해가 단기적으로 나타난다. 반면, 기후변화의 간접적이고 복합적인 영향은 연쇄반응에 의해 사회의 정치, 사회, 경제 분야로 복합적으로 확산되어 나타난다. 그리고 마지막으로 이 같은 복합적인 기후변화의 사회적 파장을 결정하는 취약성(vulnerability)과 부정적 영향을 완화시키는 복원력(resilience)에 대한 최근의 논의를 소개하였다. 취약성과 복원력의 종류와 크기는 해당 사회의 정치적, 사회적, 문화적 상황에 따라 달라지며 이들이 어떻게 작용하였는지 여러 연구사례를 통하여 살펴보았다. 따라서 향후 기후 관련 연구에서는 다음과 같은 과정을 거치는 것이 필요하다. 연구대상의 증거자료의 종류에 따른 특성과 한계를 고려하여, 물리적 기후변화의 규모와 사회에의 영향의 종류와 정도를 파악하는 것이 우선적으로 필요하다. 그리고 이를 만들어내는 메커니즘을 해당사회의 취약성과 복원력의 개념을 기반으로 추출해야 할 것이다. 이러한 과정과 개념들은 과거 기후변화와 관련된 연구에 다양한 시각을 제공하고 보다 구체적이고 통합적인 해석을 도출하는 작업에 기여할 것이다.

기후변화 및 사회·경제적 요인의 동태적 변화를 고려한 미래 물수급 관리정책 마련(Ⅰ)

류재나 ( Jaena Ryu ),김호정,김민아 한국환경정책평가연구원 2016 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2016 No.-

본 연구에서는 첫째, 미래 물수급과 관련한 영향인자들의 상호작용을 구현할 수 있는 방법론을 적용하여 동태적 변화추이를 반영하는 물수급 관리계획 수립의 프레임워크를 구축하고자 하였다. 둘째, 작성된 프레임워크를 시범유역에 적용하여 물수급 관리방안을 작성하는 사례를 나타내었다. 선정된 시범유역의 과거의 물수급 관련자료, 미래의 변화조건들을 시스템다이내믹스(System Dynamics) 방법을 통해 모의하고 모델링을 통해 물수급 관리 정책 방향 작성을 시험해보고자 하였다. 본 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. ○ 시스템다이내믹스(System Dynamics) 방법의 물관리 적용의 프레임워크 도출 시스템다이내믹스는 다양한 연구자들에 의해서 미래의 기후변화로 인한 물수급의 변화를 포함, 물수요공급의 수량관리를 다양한 관련요소들과의 인과 관계 및 상호작용을 모델링함으로써 경제적 측면에서 물수급을 관리할 수 있는 적절한 방안으로 제안되었다. 반면 물수급 관리방안의 실현에 있어서 물수요와 공급의 해결을 위한 방안에 있어 국내 실정을 반영하고, 정책 지원에 활용되기 위한 방법으로의 활용은 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화의 장기전망, 경제·사회의 변화의 영향을 거시적인 관점에서 반영, 2100년을 대비, 미래 물수급 관리 정책을 마련하기 위한 모델링 프레임워크를 구축하였다. 이에 따르는 세부 내용은 ① 물수요량, 물공급량의 변화추이 전망, ② 기후변화, 사회구조, 경제구조의 변화에 대한 물수급 변화추이 전망으로 작성하여 동적 모의를 통한 장기 전략이 작성 가능하며, 각 전략에 맞추어 다양한 시나리오를 작성한 시범모의를 통해 장기 물관리 정책 작성의 가능성을 나타내었다. ○ 프레임워크의 시범유역 적용사례의 시사점 모델의 시간적 범위, 공간적 범위는 세부 정책적 해결 문제에 따라 다른 적용이 필요하다. 예를 들어 강우량 증가로 인한 기후변화의 영향 평가에서, 강우의 변동은 일년 동안에도 매우 크기 때문에 월단위 시간적 범위의 설정 등이 필요하다. 정부에서 감압급수를 예고한 직후 물사용이 급격하게 증가하였던 예와 같이 단기적인 물수급관리 정책이 필요한 상황의 모의가 필요할 때가 있으며 단기간의 경제 충격에 의한 물수급의 영향 등에 대하여도 시간적 범위를 짧게 하여 물수급 대책의 작성이 필요한 상황이 있을 수 있다. 또한 시범모의에서 언급되었던 유역 간의 물이동 문제를 고려하기 위해서는 공간적 범위에서 두 가지 유역에 대해 개별 레이어를 구성하고 이를 동시에 모의하여 물이동 문제에 대한 해결방안을 제시함도 가능한 것으로 판단되어, 다양한 상황의 시간적, 공간적 상황에 적절한 모델링 프레임워크의 적용을 통한 물관리 정책 작성이 가능할 것으로 사료된다. 다양한 물공급시설의 투자는 실제로 시설 투자의 정책적 결정, 시설의 건설, 시설 적용을 통한 물공급에 있어서 시간적인 차이가 발생하며, 한번 투자가 이루어진 시설물의 효과가 지속되는 기간 또한 시설물별로 다르게 발생한다. 시간의 흐름을 바탕으로 동적으로 모의가 가능한 시스템다이내 믹스 모델의 특성을 이용하면 건설에 소요되는 시간적인 지체(delay) 등을 반영한 모의가 가능하며, 궁극적으로는 시설물의 투자에 대한 시점의 결정, 장기적인 투자효과의 분석, 물부족 발생이 예상되는 시점 이전의 선투자 방안 등도 모의가 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 경제 변화 구조를 GDP의 변화추이와 공급시설 투자에 대한 예산대비 정책적 의사 결정으로 반영하였는데, 투자시점의 결정 및 투자 효과의 분석에 비용적 측면의 분석 또한 가능하게 되어 정책 결정에 적극 활용 가능할 것으로 사료 된다. The main objectives of this study are firstly to suggest a framework for water management strategy reflecting dynamic interactions of related factors. The second objective is to apply the framework in a case study area. The framework developed in System Dynamics model environment (Vensim 6.3D) was tested with past water supply and demand data and used to predict future water balance of the case study area. The main outcomes of this study are follows. A System Dynamics has been suggested as a proper method in large number of studies to suggest a suitable water management strategy by modelling causal relationships and interactions of different factors in relation to climate changes. However, it has not been used to suggest water management strategies in a policy level reflecting domestic circumstance of the Korean environment. A model framework developed in this study is available for dynamic modelling to predict future water supply and demand changes. It also is possible to reflect future dynamic changes of not only climate but also social and economic factors. Gumho sub catchment located in Nakdong catchment has been selected as a case study area. Increased rainfall according to climate change assumed to alter the quantities of runoff flow and ground water. Changes in population were used to reflect social changes in the water balance by changing the amount of domestic water supply. In order to show the economic change, changes in industrial water was assumed to have a strong relationship with changes in the GDP rate. The model was fitted with 30 year of past water usage data and used to predict the future changes in water balance up to 2100. The results proved the model framework could be used to suggest a long term water management strategy considering future dynamic changes of climate, social and economic factors.

기후변화 연동 지하수 함양량 산정 모델 개발 및 정책방향 고찰

이명진 ( Moung Jin Lee ),이정호 ( Joung Ho Lee ),전성우 ( Seong Woo Jeon ),홍현정 ( Hyun Jung Houng ) 한국환경정책평가연구원 2010 환경정책연구 Vol.9 No.2

본 논문에서는 실질적인 기후변화에 따른 지하수 함양량 산정 모델 개발 및 관리방안을 마련하기 위하여 기후변화에 따른 지하수 함양량 변화를 산정하는 방법론을 제시하였고, 지리정보시스템을 활용하여 연구지역의 미래 시기별지하수 함양량을 추정하였다. 이를 바탕으로 향후 기후변화에 따른 지하수 수자원 통합관리방안에 대한 정책적 사항을 제안하였다. 연구지역은 낙동강 본류를 포함하는 경상북도 칠곡군, 구미시 일부 및 대구시 북구 일부이며, 최종연구결과는 미래 기후변화에 따른 시기별 강우량, 함양률, 함양량을 추정하였다. 함양량 및 함양률은 기후변화에 따른 강우량의 변화와 함께 변화하는 추세를 나타내고 있는 것으로 파악되었다. 본 논문에서는 기존의 기후변화와 지하수함양량의 불명확한 관계를 정량적으로 분석하였으며, 미래 기후변화 예측 결과를 반영한 연구지역 내 지하수 함양률 변화를 시-공간적으로 산정하고, 기존 산정 결과와의 비교를 통해, 향후 기후변화를 고려한 국내 지하수 수자원의 관리방안 수립을 위한 방향을 제시하고자 하였다. 앞으로 연계모델의 고도화 방안 및 현장조사가 추가된다면 보다정량적으로 기후변화와 지하수 함양량의 상관관계를 파악할 수 있으며, 향후 수자원으로 이용이 증가될 지하수의 전반적인 관리 및 효율적인 운영체제 구축을 위한 한 축을 차지할 수 있다는 점에서 중요성이 있다고 하겠다. Global climate change is destroying the water circulation balance by changing rates of precipitation, recharge and discharge, and evapotranspiration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) makes "changes in rainfall pattern due to climate system changes and consequent shortage of available water resource" a high priority as the weakest part among the effects of human environment caused by future climate changes. Groundwater, which occupies a considerable portion of the world`s water resources, is related to climate change via surface water such as rivers, lakes, and marshes, and "direct" interactions, being indirectly affected through recharge. Therefore, in order to quantify the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, it is necessary to not only predict the main variables of climate change but to also accurately predict the underground rainfall recharge quantity. In this paper, the authors selected a relevant climate change scenario, In this context, the authors selected A1B from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) which is distributed at Korea Meteorological Administration. By using data on temperature, rainfall, soil, and land use, the groundwater recharge rate for the research area was estimated by period and embodied as geographic information system (GIS). In order to calculate the groundwater recharge quantity, Visual HELP3 was used as main model for groundwater recharge, and the physical properties of weather, temperature, and soil layers were used as main input data. General changes to water circulation due to climate change have already been predicted. In order to systematically solve problems associated with how the groundwater resource circulation system should be reflected in future policies pertaining to groundwater resources, it may be urgent to recalculate the groundwater recharge quantity and consequent quantity for using via prediction of climate change in Korea in the future and then reflection of the results. The space-time calculation of changes to the groundwater recharge quantity in the study area may serve as a foundation to present additional measures for the improved management of domestic groundwater resources.

기후변화와 강제이주 : 온두라스를 중심으로

이태혁 한국국회학회 2023 한국과 세계 Vol.5 No.3

In the global context, there is a growing recognition of the multidimensional changes caused by climate change, leading to discussions and research on the link between climate change and forced migration. One notable example is the migratory procession of Honduras in Northern Central America, often referred to as the 'Caravan,' While climate change affects everyone, its impacts are not distributed equally. There are certain groups that are more vulnerable to its effects, particularly the poor who face greater exposure and damage from climate crises. This phenomenon highlights the climate inequality that exists. This article argues that when structural inequalities such as poverty intersect with climate change, it leads to a significant number of climate refugees. The degree of vulnerability to climate change is confirmed by examining the 'double' characteristics of Honduras' climate at the geographical level. The agricultural- oriented industrial structure of Honduras, particularly in the dry corridor, is explored to further understand the degree of vulnerability to climate change. The dynamics of forced migration are examined in relation to these factors. Finally, the article concludes by reviewing explanatory variables of climate change for mass migration from Honduras, discussing the limitations of the paper, and suggesting areas for further research. 기후변화와 (강제)이주는 어떠한 상관관계가 있을까? 전 지구적 맥락에서 기후변화에 따른 다층적 차원의 ‘변화’가 감지되고 있는 가운데 기후변화와 강제이주성에 대한 논의 그리고 이에 따른 연구가 진행되고 있다. 북중미의 온두라스의 가칭 ‘카라반(Caravan)’ 이주 행렬의 현상은 강제이주의 성격을 띠며, 이는 기후변화에 취약한 온두라스의 지리적 특성과 아울러 가난한 사람들에게 더욱 가혹한 기후위기 특징이 반영된 것이다. 기후변화는 평등하다. 하지만, 기후변화의 영향은 평등하지 않다. 즉 기후변화 영향에 취약한계층이 있다. 빈곤할수록 기후위기 노출에 취약하며 따라서 그 피해 또한 크다. 기후불평등이다. 이러한 관점에서 본고는 빈곤 등의 사회경제의 구조적 불평등이 기후변화와 만나면 기후난민이 대량 발생한다고 주장한다. 이에, 본고는 먼저 기후변화와 강제이주간의 논의에 대한 선행연구를 통해 본 연구의 분석적 틀과 연구의 목적을 피력한다. 그리고 온두라스의 기후의 ‘이중적’ 특성을 지리적 차원에서 고찰함으로 기후변화의 취약성 정도를 확인한다. 다음으로 온두라스의 농업에 기댄 산업구조 특히 건조회랑(dry corridor)에서의 농업중심의 경제 산업 구조를 살펴봄으로 기후변화의 취약정도를 파악한다. 그리고 이에 따른 강제이주의 역동성을 고찰한다. 끝으로 온두라스발 대량 이주현상에 대한 기후변화 설명변수를 재고찰하며 본고의 한계 제시 및 후속연구를 제안하며 마무리 한다.

The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA

Franczyk, Jon,Chang, Heejun John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2009 Hydrological processes Vol.23 No.6

<P>Climate changes brought on by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to have a significant effect on the Pacific Northwest hydrology during the 21st century. Many climate model simulations project higher mean annual temperatures and temporal redistribution of precipitation. This is of particular concern for highly urbanized basins where runoff changes are more vulnerable to changes in climate. The Rock Creek basin, located in the Portland metropolitan area, has been experiencing rapid urban growth throughout the last 30 years, making it an ideal study area for assessing the effect of climate and land cover changes on runoff. A combination of climate change and land cover change scenarios for 2040 with the semi-distributed AVSWAT (ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model was used to determine changes in mean runoff depths in the 2040s (2030–2059) from the baseline period (1973–2002) at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Statistically downscaled climate change simulation results from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) found that the region would experience an increase of 1·2 °C in the average annual temperature and a 2% increase in average annual precipitation from the baseline period. AVSWAT simulation shows a 2·7% increase in mean annual runoff but a 1·6% decrease in summer runoff. Projected climate change plus low-density, sprawled urban development for 2040 produced the greatest change to mean annual runoff depth (+5·5%), while climate change plus higher-density urban development for 2040 resulted in the smallest change (+5·2%), when compared with the climate and land cover of the baseline period. This has significant implications for water resource managers attempting to implement adaptive water resource policies to future changes resulting from climate and urbanization. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</P>

Corporation’s Adaptation to Climate Change Related Natural Disasters : Embedding Resiliency in Supply Chain - A Study on Climate Change Related Natural Disaster Adaptation for Corporations -

Pak Myong Sop,Kim In Sun 한국무역상무학회 2014 貿易商務硏究 Vol.64 No.-

Two types of responses to climate change exist. First is climate mitigation which includes efforts of reducing CO2 and GHG emissions. Second response is climate adaptation process which is establishing climate resilience in the supply chain. The two are inherently different since mitigation strategy focus on eliminating the source of climate change and is long term in nature but adaptation strategy is moderating the impact of potential or current climate change. In order to embed climate resilience in the supply chain, mitigation strategies and adaption strategies must be implemented simultaneously. Corporation’s adaptation to climate change related natural disaster can be seen as a response that includes mitigation and adaptation strategies simultaneously. A comprehensive climate change resilience supply chain approach has to be developed. This paper illustrated guidelines and adaptation process framework businesses can utilize in order to build climate resilience. Screening process before the actual assessment of risk was introduced as well as the whole adaptation process of establishing information system and strengthening climate-related operational flexibility.

An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Korean Onion Market

Ho-Seung BAEK,In-Seck KIM 한국유통과학회 2020 The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business( Vol.11 No.3

Purpose: Agriculture, which is heavily influenced by climate conditions, is one of the industries most affected by climate change. In this respect, various studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural market have been conducted. Since climate change is a long-term phenomenon for more than a decade, long-term projections of agricultural prices as well as climate variables are needed to properly analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural market. However, these long-term price projections are often major constraints on studies of climate changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of climate changes on the Korean onion market using ex-post analysis approach in order to avoid the difficulties of long-term price projections. Research design, data and methodology: This study develops an annual dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean onion market. The behavioral equations of the model were estimated by OLS based on the annual data from 1988 to 2018. The modelling system is first simulated to have actual onion market conditions from 2014 to 2018 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming the climatic conditions under RCP8.5 over the same period. Scenario analyses were simulated by both comparative static and dynamic approach to evaluate the differences between the two approaches. Results: According to the empirical results, if the climate conditions under RCP8.5 were applied from 2014 to 2018, the yield of onion would increase by about 4%, and the price of onion would decrease from 3.7% to 17.4%. In addition, the average price fluctuation rate over the five years under RCP8.5 climate conditions is 56%, which is more volatile than 46% under actual climate conditions. Empirical results also show that the price decreases have been alleviated in dynamic model compared with comparative static model. Conclusions: Empirical results show that climate change is expected to increase onion yields and reduce onion prices. Therefore, the appropriate countermeasures against climate change in Korean onion market should be found in the stabilization of supply and demand for price stabilization rather than technical aspects such as the development of new varieties to increase productivity.

Elementary Teachers' Knowledge and Teaching of Climate Change

Nam, Youn-Kyeong,Kim, Soon-Shik,Lee, Young-Seob The Korean Society of Earth Science Education 2011 대한지구과학교육학회지 Vol.4 No.3

This study examines eighteen elementary teachers knowledge and teaching practrice of climate change using the KQEM survey, modified from the survey developed by Leiserowitz, A., Smith, N. & Marlon, J.R. (2010). The survey includes 11 questions from KQEM survey and 2 open ended questions about teachers' knowledge of climate change and their understandings of important climate change concept for elementary students. All of the participant teachers were purposefully selected for the study and were participated in the study volunteerly. The data for this study were analyzed both quantitatively and qualitatively. The result of this study indicates that the teachers have knowledge of climate change specifically about the topics of causes of climate change and consequences of climate change such as shifting biome and ecological impacts. While most of the teachers described climate change phenomena using scientific knowledge, some of the teachers (N=2) showed misconceptions about climate change phenomena. Most of the teachers thought the causes of climate change and potential solutions to reduce climate change are important concept that elementary students need to understand about climate change. Actually, most of the teachers are currently teaching the causes and consequences of climate change (N=13) potential solutions to global warming (N= 8). This study could inform teacher educators about what elementary teachers understand about climate change and what elementary teachers are currently teaching about climate change.

Interpretative and Legislative Approach to Climate Change Subsidies under the WTO Mechanism

풍동옥,이은섭 법무부 2014 통상법률 Vol.- No.117

In order to address climate change issues, governments may seek to provide subsidies for the climate friendly projects or the production of climate friendly products. Indeed, many countries already have begun to incorporate subsidies into their plans for addressing climate change. Subsidy policies inevitably affect international trade measures, the application of which would lead to issues about whether they are WTO-consistent. The principal restraint on climate change subsidies could be found in the SCM Agreement. If climate change subsidy policies are designed and applied in manners that are not specific to an industry or certain industries, they will not be challenged under the SCM Agreement. In addition, if such subsidies are specific but fall within specified exceptions outlined in Article 8.2 of the SCM Agreement, they would also be considered non-actionable and not be challenged. However, these exceptions expired at the end of 1999 and have not been renewed. Since the existing SCM Agreement no longer contains general exceptions or “saving” clauses for legitimate environmental measures, the majority of climate change subsidies would fall within the concept of actionable or prohibited subsidies. Therefore, the application of such subsidies would be incompatible with the SCM Agreement provisions. Although Members can design their subsidy policies to make them meet the SCM Agreement requirements, they will lose a number of effective subsidies and may be impeded by the potential challenges. In order to reduce the risk that climate friendly subsidy policies could be challengeable under the SCM Agreement provisions, and encourage Members to reduce GHG emissions and address climate change, the existing SCM Agreement should be modified. This paper examines whether WTO rules promote the best use of subsidies. It firstly introduces the practice of the climate change subsidies in many countries, and argues that not all subsidies have negative effects from an environmental perspective and certain subsidy policies could play a positive role in addressing climate change issues. Part III discusses the potential conflicts between climate change subsidies and provisions under the SCM Agreement, and then, Part IV suggests that the existing SCM Agreement should be modified inorder to permit certain climate friendly subsidy policies and to encourage Members to address climate change issues.

Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Associated Variations of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using CORDEX-SA over Pakistan

Sajjad Haider,Kalim Ullah 한국기상학회 2021 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.57 No.4

Agro-climatic classification systems based on aridity help to distinguish various features of aridity in different agro-climatic regions around the world revealing potentially serious implications for water and agriculture sectors in light of climate change. This study probed historical and projected variations and shifts in agro-climatic zones associated with dispersion in Probability Density Functions (PDF) for daily temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation extremes over Pakistan. In this study, a singlemodel RCMsimulation and projection from the output of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA) data were used to evaluate these parameters for three-time spans: near future (2011–2040), mid future (2041–2070), and end of century (2071–2100); each under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) after bias-correction for the observed baseline data (1971–2000). The data was collected from 49 weather stations. Future projections based on the used Regional Climate Model (RCM) predicted major changes in extremely arid and semi-arid zones of Pakistan in the future. In terms of statistical moments, the highest magnitude change was noted in the median and mean of the Tmax which increased as much as 5.1 °C, and the 90th percentile of the Tmin increased by up to 6.5 °C under the RCP8.5 by the end of this century in arid and the extremely arid zones. Similarly, the greatest magnitude of change in the precipitation was projected to increase more than 3.3 mm/day under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in semi-arid zones by the end of the present century. Projected shifts in agro-climatic zones are coupled with associated changes in the statistical moments of the PDFs for drought and extreme precipitation events in agro-climatic zones in response to climate change.