政治关系对双边贸易关系的影响—基于中国和12个国家的面板数据的实证分析

Deng Xin 성균관대학교 성균중국연구소 2025 중국사회과학논총 Vol.7 No.1

本文基于2005年1月至2022年12月中国与12个国家的月度数据,采用贸易引力模型和面板VAR模型,实证分析国家间政治关系变动对双边贸易的影响及其持续性。研究发现: 第一,国家间政治关系的改善对双边贸易的整体发展具有显著的促进作用,而政治关系的恶化则会破坏双边贸易发展; 第二,政治关系改善对中国从外部进口贸易的正向影响显著大于对出口贸易的影响; 第三,政治关系对双边贸易的正向影响在滞后2期左右达到最大值,随后逐渐减弱,至11期左右降至0,表明其影响主要体现在短期,持续时间约为10个月; 第四,政治关系改善的贸易促进效应因地缘区域、经济发展水平和贸易类型的不同而存在显著差异。具体而言,中国与亚洲区域内国家及发达国家的政治关系改善对双边贸易发展的推动作用更强,且良好的政治关系对货物贸易的促进效应大于对服务贸易的影响。本文的研究结论为如何通过维护稳定的双边政治关系来降低贸易损失提供了政策启示,也为进一步深化中国对外开放、参与全球经济治理提供了理论支持。 This paper is based on monthly data from January 2005 to December 2022 between China and 12 countries. It employs the gravity model of trade and the panel VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of changes in political relations between countries on bilateral trade and its persistence. The findings are as follows: First, the improvement of political relations between countries significantly promotes the overall development of bilateral trade, while the deterioration of political relations destroys it. Second, the positive impact of improved political relations on China’s imports from abroad is significantly greater than that on exports. Third, the positive impact of political relations on bilateral trade peaks around two periods later and gradually weakens, reaching zero around 11 periods later. This indicates that the impact is mainly short-term, lasting about 10 months. Fourth, the trade-promoting effect of improved political relations varies significantly due to differences in geographical regions, levels of economic development, and types of trade. Specifically, the improvement of political relations between China and countries within the Asian region and developed countries has a stronger promoting effect on bilateral trade. Moreover, good political relations have a greater promoting effect on goods trade than on services trade. The conclusions of this paper provide policy insights on how to reduce trade losses by maintaining stable bilateral political relations and offer theoretical support for further deepening China’s opening-up and participation in global economic governance.

고려시대대일교류(高麗時代對日交流)와 부산(釜山)

이종봉 ( Lee Jong Bong ) 부경역사연구소 2004 지역과 역사 Vol.- No.15

This study is to examine the development of relations between Koryo and Japan and the exchange towards Japan in the Koryo dynasty. It may be briefly summed up as follows. First, relations between Koryo and Japan may be broadly divided into four phases. In the first phase, the period from the 10th century to the early 11th century, Koryo attempted to establish official diplomatic relations with Japan by dispatching envoys in Japan, but failed to advance relations between two countries owing to the Japanese reluctance to open the door to foreign intercourse and fear of the Koryo’s aggression. However in the second phase from the early 11th century to the end of 11th century, the Yozin(女眞) Doi ethnic’s(刀伊族) invasion of Japan renewed relations between two countries. At this time, Koryo and Japan returned castaways to their home country and dispatched envoys to each country as well. Especially, the Japanese traders carried on commercial transactions under the order of Palkwanhoi(八關會) in the Koryo dynasty. Although diplomatic relations between two countries were strained, because the Koryo’s patrol seized ship included in the Japanese crews in Yunpyung island in the end of 11th century, in the third phase also, the Koryo-Japan traders still made contact with each other. In the fourth phase, from the late 13th century to the fall of the Koryo dynasty, two countries had not a normal foreign relation but a invading spoiled relation. Secondly, as the Koryo’s relation towards Japan took a turn for the better and the exchange with Japan advanced in the early 11th century, the Koryo-Japan trade became active. And trading post where exchanged goods with Japan was KuemJoo(金州). At that time, Koryo had trade relation with Japan in private as well as in public. The business named Jinbong trade(進奉貿易) was an official one. Jinbong trade means that Koryo carried on commercial transactions under the order of Palkwanhoi(八關會) rather than under the order of Jogong(朝貢)․Chaekbong system (冊封體制) in East Asia. Like this, Jinbon trade went into effect partly from about the mid 11th century to the middle 13th century, even in the maelstrom of the struggle against Mongol invasion. On the other side, here were also somewhat of private trade with Japan. At this time, the fact that were castaways and traders returned to their home country proves that they smuggled goods without permission or abnormally. Thirdly, Kuemjoo(金州) in which located Gaekkwan(客館) was a commercial center in the Koryo trade with Japan. Gaekkwan(客館) in Kuemjoo(金州) was established as the house of the Japanese envoys and traders in the early 11th century, and took exclusive charge of the Koryo-Japan trade, unlike other Gaekkwan(客館) which were established in Seoul. Gaekkwan was managed under the control of Dongnamhaedobuseo(東南海都府署) which took charge of southeast coast, not local official in Kuemjoo(金州). The quarter of Dongnamhaedobuseo had originally located in Kyungjoo in the 22th year of King Taejo(太祖) regime, but was transferred to Kuemjoo owing to conditions at the location of relations between Koryo and Japan in the 32th year of King Moonjong(文宗) regime(1079). It is at present Gurangdong, Noksandong, Gangseogu, Busan metropolitan-city the place where Gaekkwan in Kuemjoo located. In conclusion, I suggest that the present Busan was a base of foreign trade on and from the Koryo dynasty.

The Influence of Sino-US Trade War on China-ROK Relations

Wu Jinfeng(Jinfeng Wu) 아시아사회과학학회 2023 Jornal of Asia Social Science Vol.10 No.1

For China and the United States, South Korea is an important trading partner, and it is also highly concerned about the Sino-US trade war. Because South Korea's economy relies heavily on the external environment, it has also been impacted to a certain extent by the Sino-US trade war. Although some studies believe that the Sino-US trade war has brought new development opportunities to South Korea, from a practical perspective, South Korea's gross domestic product, export trade, and stock market have been greatly impacted, especially by the intensified competition among big countries and the reshaping of global value chains brought about by the Sino-US trade war. With the intensification of the Sino-US trade war, both China and South Korea should think about how to reduce the influence of Sino-US relations and maintain the stability of Sino-Korean relations. Therefore, South Korea needs to actively adjust its economic policies, speed up the upgrading of its economic cooperation with China, take the initiative to seize the American market, and play a certain role in promoting regional multilateral economic cooperation and economic and trade diversification, especially avoiding taking sides between China and the United States. China, on the other hand, should strengthen its economic and political cooperation with South Korea so as to alleviate other countries' worries about Sino-US competition and the rise of China and thus realise the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-South Korea relations.

The Peace Effects of Inter-Korean Trade and the Political-Economic Separation: Analysis of the Reciprocal Effects of Inter-Korean Relations and Inter-Korean Trade

김규철 한국개발연구원 2023 KDI Journal of Economic Policy (KDI JEP) Vol.45 No.3

This paper empirically examines the relationship between inter-Korean trade and inter-Korean relations over the past three decades. It asks two questions: (1) Does inter-Korean trade contribute to improved inter-Korean relations and peace on the Korean Peninsula? (2) Does improved inter-Korean relations lead to increased inter-Korean trade? The study employs a time-series causal relationship analysis methodology to answer these questions. The findings show that during the progressive government’s reign, inter-Korean trade was not impacted by inter-Korean relations. This is due to the implementation of a political-economic separation policy towards North Korea. Moreover, the increase in general trade and processing on commission did enhance inter-Korean relations, reflecting the “inclusive policy” aimed at achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula through inter-Korean trade. In contrast, during the conservative government’s reign, inter-Korean relations had a direct impact on inter-Korean trade, with deteriorating relations leading to a significant decrease in trade. This was due to the implementation of North Korea policies that were linked to politics and the economy.

РАЗВИТИЕ РУССКО-КИТАЙСКИХ ТОРГОВЫХ ОТНОШЕНИЙ В XIX В.

Патапова Эдита Эдуардовна(E. E. Patapova) 경북대학교 러시아-유라시아 연구소 2020 러시아유라시아연구 Vol.3 No.1

The article is devoted to the study of the development of Russian-Chinese trade relations in the XIX century. For the first time, trade relations between Russia and China were established in 1727. However, by the XIX century, there were many unresolved issues in trade between the countries. The main problems were: the need to increase trading places, the expansion of land trade and the beginning of sea trade, and the increase in exports of Russian goods to Chinese markets. The author examines how Russian-Chinese treaties of the mid XIX century influenced the expansion of trade relations. The author alsostudies the main items of trade. The main export items were furs, Russian textile, and precious metals. The main import items wereChinese fabrics and tea. Trade between the two countries is seen as the basis for stability in bilateral relations.

한-중 수교 이후 무역구조 변화와 특징 분석: 수출경쟁력과 무역결합도를 중심으로

서창배 현대중국학회 2022 현대중국연구 Vol.24 No.1

Since establishing diplomatic ties in 1992, Korea-China relations have been developing rapidly in various fields such as trade, investment, and people-to-people exchanges. In particular, Korea- China's merchandise trade increased 47 times from US$6.4 billion in 1992 to US$301.5 billion in 2021. And also, Korea-China trade relations had transformed from ‘Inter-industry trade’ to ‘intra-industry trade.’ Accordingly, this paper analyzes structural changes such as export competitiveness and trade intensity developed in the bilateral markets of Korea-China over the past 30 years since the establishment of Korea-China diplomatic relations. Based on this, we look back on the 30 years of the Korea-China trade relations through the structural characteristics of trade between the two countries according to the determinants of the trade structure and provide implications for enhancing Korea's manufacturing export competitiveness to China. To summarize the analysis results, first, in terms of export competitiveness, Korea has a comparative advantage in chemicals and chemical products,electrical and electronic equipment, and precision machinery. And China has a comparative advantage in food and beverage products, other manufacturing, textile products, and metal products. Second, in the case of intra-industry trade, in Korea, 'intra-industry trade' between Korea and China was the largest in the transport equipment sector, with textile products and other manufacturing in the 1990s and general machinery and metal products in the late 2000s. In China, 'intra-industry trade' between Korea and China was actively conducted in metal products and electrical/electronic equipment, textile products in the 1990s, and general machinery in the late 2000s. Third, in the case of trade intensity, it was found that trade intensity between the two countries was high in most industries after establishing Korea-China diplomatic relations. In particular, in China, the trade concentration of electric/ electronic products, chemicals, and chemical products was high. In Korea, transportation equipment and food and beverage products were highly concentrated. 한-중관계는 1992년 수교 이래 무역, 투자, 인적 교류 등 다양한 분야에서 비약적인 발전을 거듭하고 있다. 특히 한-중 상품무역은 1992년 64 억 달러에서 2021년 3,015억 달러를 기록함으로써 약 47배 증가하였고, ‘산업간 무역’은 ‘산업내 무역’ 형태로 전환되었다. 이에 본고는 한-중 수교 이후 지난 30년간 양국 상호시장에서 전개된 수출경쟁력과 무역결합도등의 구조적 변화를 분석하였다. 이러한 분석내용을 바탕으로 무역구조결정요인에 따른 양국 무역의 구조적 특징을 통해 한-중 무역관계 30년을 회고하는 한편, 한국의 對중국 제조업 수출경쟁력 제고를 위한 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. 분석 결과를 요약하면, 첫째, 수출경쟁력의 경우, 한국은 화학물질 및 화학제품, 전기・전자제품, 정밀기기 등이, 중국은 음식료품과 기타제조품, 섬유제품, 금속제품 등에서 비교우위를 보이고 있다. 둘째, 산업내 무역의 경우, 한국 시장에서 한-중간 산업내 무역은 수송기기 분야에서 가장 크게 나타났으며, 섬유제품과 기타제조품은 1990년대에, 일반기계와 금속제품은 2000년대 후반에 산업내 무역이 나타났다. 중국 시장에서는 금속제품과 전기・전자제품에서 한-중간 산업내 무역이 활발히 이루어지고 있으며, 섬유제품은 1990년대에, 일반기계는 2000년대후반에 산업내 무역이 나타났다. 셋째, 무역결합도의 경우, 한-중 수교 이후 대다수 산업에서 양국 간 무역긴밀도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 특히중국 시장에서는 전기・전자제품, 화학물질 및 화학제품이, 한국 시장에서는 수송기기, 음식료품의 무역집중도가 높게 나타났다.

중국의 무역관련 환경규제조치

이은섭;최홍실 법무부 2006 통상법률 Vol.- No.72

경제글로벌화와 자유무역의 확대는 무역과 환경문제를 국제사회의 주요이슈로 등장시켰으며 무역과 환경을 어떻게 조화할 것인가는 오늘날 중국을 비롯한 각 국 정부가 직면한 심각한 과제로 부각되었다. 중국은 WTO가입 후, 국제시장 진입과정에서 국제사회의 무역관련 환경규제조치의 광범위한 적용을 받고 있어, 이에 대한 적절한 정책적 대응은 중국의 대외무역의 발전을 위한 필수조건으로서 중국정부와 기업이 직면한 절박한 과제이다. 본 논문은 먼저 무역관련 환경규제조치의 이론적 분석을 그 생성원인, 특징, 유형 등을 중심으로 다룬 다음 중국의 현행 환경세, 환경라벨제도, 강제인증제도, 동식물위생검역제도, 기술규제 등 무역관련 환경규제조치의 현황을 검토하여 그 문제점을 찾아낸 다음 마지막으로 WTO체제하에서 적합한 중국의 무역관련 환경규제조치의 개선방향을 제시하고 있다. 본 논문은 중국이 객관적이고 공정한 입장에서 무역관련 환경규제조치를 입안․시행하고 WTO 관련 규정을 합목적적으로 반영시킴과 동시에 적극적으로 관련 국제법제정에 참여하고 무역환경분쟁 발생 시에는 가능한 한 WTO분쟁해결기구의 이용이 바람직함을 제시하고 있다. With the deepening globalization of world economy and trade, the relationship between trade and environment has attracted world wide attention in recent years. Harmonization of trade and environment has been found urgent and important by the governments all over the world. After having entered into the WTO, Chinese products designed to enter into the international market, shall meet the requirements of trade-related environmental measures under the WTO provisions as well as importing countries' domestic regulations. Considering the gradual environmental aggravation and the growing trade dispute with the trade partner countries in china, it is required to harmonize the trade-related environmental measures with the principle of free trade under the WTO as soon as possible. The fact that unresolved environmental problems can use up all the profits from the trade liberalization in China urges them to build the system to impose timely and efficiently trade measures related to environment. This article examines the Chinese trade-related environmental measures under the WTO mechanism and suggests the more efficient operation of trade-related environmental measures in China for the harmonization with the free trade principle of WTO.

4차 산업혁명에 대응하는 무역교육을 위한 학회의 역할 제고 방안

유광현,방성철 한국통상정보학회 2022 통상정보연구 Vol.24 No.3

Trade combined with the 4th industrial revolution technologies such as AI, big data, and blockchain is undergoing a transition from traditional trade to digital trade. In particular, COVID-19 has further accelerated the development of digital technology, resulting in many changes in trade products and trade methods. It is not easy to achieve 2 trillion dollars in Korea's trade scale, which has been stagnant in the midst of such changes in the trade environment. Therefore, it is necessary to nurture trade manpower who can preemptively respond to changes in the domestic and global trade environment, such as the transition to digital trade and the expansion of service trade for high added value of exports. Specifically, it is necessary to nurture trade manpower who can recognize not only trade practices based on trade knowledge, but also ideas and innovative technologies suitable for the era of the 4th industrial revolution, and create overseas markets through networks Therefore, this study intends to propose a new paradigm of trade practice education for nurturing trade manpower who can respond to changes in the domestic and foreign trade environment and the spread of the 4th industrial revolution technology at the present time. To this end, we intend to redefine the trade manpower and necessary competencies to respond to changes in the current trade environment. In addition, based on this, concrete measures were presented along with the necessity of enhancing the role of trade-related societies in seeking a new paradigm for trade practice education.

The Effect of Trade Agreements on Korea’s Bilateral Trade Volume: Mitigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty in Trading Countries

박희대,안지영 한국무역학회 2023 Journal of Korea trade Vol.27 No.5

Purpose – This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology – The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings – The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implemen- tation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value – This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

에너지 안보와 ESS 산업 발전을 위한 국제통상법적 과제

강문경 국민대학교 법학연구소 2025 법학논총 Vol.38 No.1

본 연구는 에너지 안보와 에너지저장장치(ESS) 산업 발전을 위한 국제통상법적 쟁점을 한국과 중국 간의 통상 마찰 사례를 중심으로 종합적으로 분석하였다. 최근 글로벌 기후변화 대응과 탄소중립 목표 달성을 위한 에너지 전환이 활발히 진행됨에 따라, 재생에너지의 간헐성 문제를 해결하고 전력 공급의 신뢰성을 높이는 ESS의 중요성이 커지고 있다. ESS는 특히 태양광과 풍력 발전 확대에 따라 수요가 급격히 증가하며, 국제 에너지 안보의 핵심 요소로 자리 잡고 있다. 2030년까지 글로벌 ESS 설치 용량은 두 배 이상 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 이에 따라 ESS용 배터리 시장도 급속히 성장하고 있다. 이러한 중요성에도 불구하고, ESS 산업 발전 과정에서 국제적 통상 마찰이 빈번히 발생하고 있다. 현재 글로벌 ESS 배터리 생산과 공급망은 중국 기업들이 시장 점유율의 대부분을 차지할 정도로 집중되어 있으며, 주요 시장에서도 중국산 배터리가 큰 비중을 차지하고 있다. 한국은 LG에너지솔루션, 삼성SDI, SK온과 같은 글로벌 배터리 기업들을 보유하고 있으며, 중국과의 글로벌 시장 경쟁에서 중요한 위치를 점하고 있다. 이에 따라 양국 간 ESS 산업 경쟁은 기술 표준, 시장 접근, 보조금 정책 등 다양한 통상 갈등을 유발하고 있으며, 양국 간 외교적 긴장 관계와도 밀접하게 연결되어 있다. 본 연구에서는 우선 ESS 산업의 개념과 국제통상법적 규범인 GATT, 보조금 및 상계조치에 관한 협정(SCM 협정), 무역기술장벽에 관한 협정(TBT 협정)을 개관하여 ESS 산업이 국제통상법적 규제와 어떤 관련성을 가지는지 분석하였다. 특히 GATT의 최혜국대우 및 내국민대우 원칙, 수량제한 금지 원칙, 일반예외 및 안보예외 조항 등을 ESS 산업과 관련해 검토하였다. 또한 ESS 산업 보조금 정책이 WTO SCM 협정의 규제 구조와 어떻게 관련되는지에 대해 분석하였다. 본 연구는 특히 2016년 한국의 사드(THAAD) 배치 이후 중국이 자국 전기차 보조금 지급 대상에서 한국산 배터리를 배제한 사례를 중심으로 WTO 협정 위반 여부와 국제통상법적 쟁점을 깊이 있게 검토하였다. 이 사례에서 GATT 제Ⅲ조 내국민대우 원칙, SCM 협정의 금지보조금 규정, 무역관련투자조치(TRIMs 협정) 위반 가능성을 분석하였다. 또한 안보예외(GATT 제XXI조)의 정당성 여부와 그 한계도 WTO 판례를 통해 고찰하였다. 또한 핵심 광물 및 소재 공급망을 둘러싼 무역 분쟁 사례를 통해 ESS 산업의 공급망 안보 문제와 WTO 규범 적용 가능성을 분석하였다. 중국의 희토류 수출제한 사례를 참조하여 WTO 규범 위반 가능성을 살펴보고, ESS 관련 광물 수출 제한 및 소재 공급망 안정을 위한 국제적 협력 필요성을 강조하였다. 본 연구는 ESS 산업과 에너지 안보라는 중요한 주제를 국제통상법적 관점에서 분석하여, 글로벌 경쟁력 강화와 지속 가능한 에너지 정책 수립에 실질적인 정책적 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. This study comprehensively analyzes international trade law issues related to energy security and the development of the energy storage system (ESS) industry, with a particular focus on trade conflicts between Korea and China. With active global energy transitions aimed at addressing climate change and achieving carbon neutrality, the importance of ESS, which resolves the intermittency issues of renewable energy and enhances electricity supply reliability, has significantly increased. Particularly due to the expansion of solar and wind power, the demand for ESS has surged, positioning it as a crucial component of international energy security. Global ESS installation capacity is expected to more than double by 2030, resulting in rapid growth in the ESS battery market. Despite its importance, the ESS industry frequently encounters international trade disputes. Currently, the global ESS battery production and supply chain are predominantly controlled by Chinese companies, which hold a substantial market share, particularly in major markets where Chinese-made batteries have significant influence. Korea, hosting leading global battery companies such as LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On, plays a crucial role in the global market competition with China. Consequently, the competition between Korea and China in the ESS industry generates various trade disputes, including issues related to technical standards, market access, and subsidy policies, further intensified by diplomatic tensions between the two countries. Initially, this study explores the concept of the ESS industry and examines related international trade law regulations such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM Agreement), and the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT Agreement). The study particularly assesses GATT principles such as most-favored-nation treatment, national treatment, prohibition of quantitative restrictions, as well as general and security exceptions in relation to the ESS industry. Additionally, the study analyzes how ESS subsidy policies relate to the regulatory structure of the WTO SCM Agreement. Subsequently, this research compares the current status of the ESS industry in Korea and China and analyzes the characteristics of each government's industrial and trade policies. Korea emphasizes expanding ESS deployment and technological competitiveness through its Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan and Green New Deal Policy, while diversifying its material supply chain. In contrast, China maintains its dominant international market position through robust subsidy policies and technological certification barriers centered around domestic enterprises. This study specifically investigates the international trade law issues stemming from China's exclusion of Korean batteries from its electric vehicle subsidy program following Korea's deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in 2016. The study deeply examines potential violations of WTO agreements, including GATT Article III on national treatment, prohibited subsidies under the SCM Agreement, and the Agreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMs). Moreover, the study evaluates the legitimacy and limitations of the security exception (GATT Article XXI) through WTO case law. Additionally, the study analyzes trade disputes surrounding critical minerals and materials supply chains, assessing the supply chain security issues of the ESS industry and the applicability of WTO regulations. By referencing China's rare earth export restriction case, the study investigates potential violations of WTO rules and underscores the need for international cooperation to stabilize ESS-related minerals exports and supply chains. Finally, the study proposes international trade law challenges and institutional improvements necessary for developing the ESS industry and securing energy security. I...