작업환경측정 자료를 활용한 Dichloromethane 노출 매트릭스 구축에 대한 연구

이재환,박동욱,홍성철,하권철,Lee, Jae-Hwan,Park, Dong-Uk,Hong, Sung-Chul,Ha, Kwon-Chul 한국환경보건학회 2010 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.36 No.5

A reduction in risk of occupational exposure to chemical hazards within the workplace has been the focus of attention both through industry initiatives and legislation. The aims of this study were to develop an exposure matrix by industry and process, and to apply this matrix to control the risk of occupational exposure to Dichloromethane (DCM). The exposure matrix is a tool to convert information on industry and process into information on occupational risk. The exposure matrix comprised industries and processes involving DCM, based on an exposure database provided by KOSHA (the Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency), which was gathered from a workplace hazards evaluation program in Korea. The risk assessment of the exposure matrix was performed using Hallmark risk assessment tool. The results of the risk assessment were indicated by a Danger Value (DV) calculated from the combination of hazard rating (HR), duration of use rating (DUR), and risk probability rating (RPR) of exposure to the chemical, and were divided into four control bands which were related to control measures. The applicability of the risk assessment of the exposure matrix was evaluated by a field study, and survey of the employees of the exposure matrix groups. Among 45 industries examined, this study found that greater attention should be paid to two industries: the manufacture of other optical instruments and photographic equipment, and the manufacture of printing ink, and to one process among 47 examined, the packing process in the manufacture of printing ink, because these were regarded as carrying the highest risk. This tool of a risk assessment for the exposure matrix can be applied as a general exposure information system for hazard control, risk quantification, setting the occupational exposure limit, and hazard surveillance. The exposure matrix includes workforce data, and it provides information on the numbers of exposed workers in Korea by agent, occupation, and level of exposure and risk.

A methodology to define risk matrices – Application to inland water ways autonomous ships

Bolbot Victor,Theotokatos Gerasimos,McCloskey James,Vassalos Dracos,Boulougouris Evangelos,Twomey Bernard 대한조선학회 2022 International Journal of Naval Architecture and Oc Vol.14 No.1

The autonomous ships’ introduction is associated with a number of challenges including the lack of appropriate risk acceptance criteria to support the risk assessment process during the initial design phases. This study aims to develop a rational methodology for selecting appropriate risk matrix ratings, which are required to perform the risk assessment of autonomous and conventional ships at an early design stage. This methodology consists of four phases and employs the individual and societal risk acceptance criteria to determine the risk matrix ratings for the groups of people exposed to risks. During the first and second phase, the required input parameters for the risk matrix ratings based on the individual risk and societal risk are calculated, respectively. During the third phase, the risk matrix ratings are defined using input from the first and second phases. During the fourth phase, the equivalence between the different types of consequences is specified. The methodology is applied for the case study of a crewless inland waterways ship to assess her typical operation within north-European mainland. The results demonstrate that the inclusion of societal risk resulted in more stringent risk matrix ratings compared to the ones employed in previous studies. Moreover, the adequacy of the proposed methodology and its effectiveness to provide risk acceptance criteria aligned with societal and individual risk acceptance criteria as well as its applicability to conventional ships are discussed.

강우량 및 호우피해 자료를 이용한 호우피해 등급기준 Matrix작성 기법 개발

정세진,유재은,허다솜,정승권 한국수자원학회 2023 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.56 No.2

Currently, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases, the scale of damage increases when extreme weather events occur. This has been providing forecast information by investing a lot of time and resources to predict rainfall from the past. However, this information is difficult for non-experts to understand, and it does not include information on how much damage occurs when extreme weather events occur. Therefore, in this study, a risk matrix based on heavy rain damage rating was presented by using the impact forecasting standard through the creation of a risk matrix presented for the first time in the UK. First, through correlation analysis between rainfall data and damage data, variables necessary for risk matrix creation are selected, and PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%) and JNBC (Jenks Natural Breaks Classification) techniques suggested in previous studies are used. Therefore, a rating standard according to rainfall and damage was calculated, and two rating standards were synthesized to present one standard. As a result of the analysis, in the case of the number of households affected by the disaster, PERCENTILE showed the highest distribution than JNBC in the Yeongsan River and Seomjin River basins where the most damage occurred, and similar results were shown in the Chungcheong-do area. Looking at the results of rainfall grading, JNBC’s grade was higher than PERCENTILE’s, and the highest grade was shown especially in Jeolla-do and Chungcheong-do. In addition, when comparing with the current status of heavy rain warnings in the affected area, it can be confirmed that JNBC is similar. In the risk matrix results, it was confirmed that JNBC replicated better than PERCENTILE in Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk regions, which suffered the most damage. 현재 극한기상의 발생빈도가 많아지면서 극한기상현상이 발생하였을 때 피해규모는 증가하고 있다. 이게 과거부터 강우량의 예측을 위해 많은 시간과 제원을 투자하여 예측정보를 제공하고 있다. 하지만 이러한 정보는 전문가가 아닌 일반인이 이해하기 어려우며 특히 극한기상현상이 발생하였을 때 어느정도의 규모의 피해가 발생하는지에 대한 정보는 포함되어 있지 않다. 이에 본 연구에서는 영국에서 최초로 제시한 Risk Matrix 작성을 통해 영향예보 기준을 활용하여 호우피해 등급기준 Risk Matrix를 제시하였다. 먼저 강우량 자료와 피해자료와의 상관 분석을 통해 Risk Matrix 작성에 필요한 변수를 선정하고 선행연구에서 제시된 PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%)과 JNBC(Jenks Natural Breaks Classification)기법을 이용하여 강우량과 피해에 따른 등급기준을 산정하여 두 개의 등급기준을 합성하여 하나의 기준을 제시하였다. 분석 결과에 이재민 세대수 결과의 경우 가장 많은 피해가 발생하였던 영산강, 섬진강유역에서 JNBC 보다 PERCENTILE이 가장 많은 분포를 보였으며, 충청도 지역에서는 유사한 결과를 나타내었다. 강우량의 등급화 결과를 살펴보면 PERCENTILE보다 JNBC의 등급이 높게 산정되었으며, 특히 전라도 지역과 충청도 지역에서 가장 큰 등급을 나타내었다. 또한 피해지역 호우특보 현황과 비교해 보면 JNBC가 유사한 것을 확인할 수 있다. Risk Matrix 결과에서 가장 피해가 심했던 세종, 대전, 충남, 충북, 광주, 전남, 전북지역을 살펴보면 PERCENTILE보다 JNBC가 잘 모사한 것을 확인하였다.

Suggestion of Risk Assessment Methodology for Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plant

ByeongIk Park,JuYoul Kim,Chang-Lak Kim 한국방사성폐기물학회 2019 방사성폐기물학회지 Vol.17 No.1

원전 해체를 준비함에 있어 정성적 또는 정량적 위험도 평가는 필수요소이다. 해체 공정간 발생하는 방사선학적 및 비방사선학적 위험요소는 해체 작업자 및 대중의 안전을 보장하기 위해 사전에 평가되어야 한다. 현재 해체 경험이 많은 미국의 기 존 사업자들 및 NRC의 경우 위험의 중대성만 평가하는 결정론적 위험도 평가에 집중하고 있다. 하지만 최근 IAEA는 위험도 매트릭스를 활용한 위험도평가를 결정론적 위험도 평가의 대체안으로 제안하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 위험도평가에 앞서 해체 공정 별 해체 활동을 Risk Breakdown Structure에 맞추어 정리하였고, 미국 20여개 해체 원전에서 해체 공정별 위험도 평가 시행 중 선정한 해체 활동간 잠재적 사고를 해체 활동에 맞게 체계적으로 정리하였다. 그리고 복합 리스크 매트릭 스를 개발 및 활용하여 해체 공정간 방사선학적 및 비방사선학적 위험요소의 위험도를 평가하여 정량적으로 수치화 하였다. The decommissioning of nuclear power plants should be prepared by quantitative and qualitative risk assessment. Radiological and nonradiological hazards arising during decommissioning activities must be assessed to ensure the safety of decommissioning workers and the public. Decommissioning experiences by U.S. operators have mainly focused on deterministic risk assessment, which is standardized by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC) and focuses only on the consequences of risk. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has suggested an alternative to the deterministic approach, called the risk matrix technique. The risk matrix technique considers both the consequence and likelihood of risk. In this study, decommissioning stages, processes, and activities are organized under a work breakdown structure. Potential accidents in the decommissioning process of NPPs are analyzed using the composite risk matrix to assess both radiological and non-radiological hazards. The levels of risk for all potential accidents considered by U.S. NPP operators who have performed decommissioning were estimated based on their consequences and likelihood of events.

발생 추이 분석에 따른 국내 주요 사고 고위험 유형 식별 방안

조심정,박덕근 한국방재학회 2016 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.16 No.4

The main purposes of this study are, firstly, to analyze the trend of major accident occurrences in Korea and, secondly, to identify high-risk accident types among 23 major accidents based on official annual statistics (cases and fatalities, 2009~2014) provided by the emergency management agency of Korea. In order to conduct the analyses, accident types are classified into four categories by their characteristics (transportation, fire and energy, facility and structure, and leisure life) utilizing the Relative Risk Index (RRI) and Risk Matrix. It is found that the playground facility has the highest average RRI value of accident occurrence. In leisure life category, which includes playground facility, bicycle, leisure, farm machinery, climbing, and water-related accident, the number of accident occurrence shows an increasing trend during the study period. Seven accident types such as playground facility, bicycle, leisure, excursion ship·ferry, maritime, falling, and farm machinery are identified as very high-risk. It is worthy to note that, in leisure life category, all accident types are in high-risk areas (level 2, 3) of the Risk Matrix and, therefore, no accident types in leisure life category are in low-risk (level 1). It is concluded that urgent risk management is needed to this category. This study introduces the RRI and Risk Matrix as tools to identify high-risk accident types. These tools can be utilized as a first step to analyze relative risks among various accidents effectively, because Korean government does not apply reliable or rational risk criteria currently. Since an efficient use of limited resources is one of the government’s mandates, it is recommended that proper prevention measures and investment plan on high-risk accident types should be a top priority. 본 연구는 국내 중앙행정기관 및 지방정부에서 관리하는 사고 23종에 대한 통계자료(발생건수 및 사망자 수, 2009년~2014년)를 바탕으로, 특성에 따라 4대 부문(운송수단, 화재 및 에너지, 시설물, 여가생활)으로 분류하여 (i) 시간의 흐름에 따른 사고 유형별 발생 증감추이를 분석하고 (ii) 고위험군 사고 유형을 식별하였다. 이를 위해 상대적 위험도 지표(Relative Risk Index, RRI)와 Risk Matrix를 활용하였다. 사고 발생건수 RRI 평균값이 가장 높은 유형은 놀이기구로 나타났으며, 놀이기구를 포함하는 여가생활 부문 6종(자전거, 레저, 농기계, 등산, 수난)의 사고 유형은 분석기간 중 모두 증가 추세를 보였다. 또한 고위험군 사고 유형은 놀이시설, 자전거, 레저, 유· 도선, 해양, 추락, 농기계로 나타났다. 여가생활 부문은 저위험군(level 1)에 속하는 유형이 없고, 위험군(level 2, 3)에 집중되어있어 안전관리가 시급히 필요한 그룹으로 평가되었다. 본 연구에서는 사고의 위험평가 기법으로 RRI 및 Risk Matrix를 소개하였다. 이는 우리나라에서 위험평가의 절대적인 기준이 없는 상황에서 상대적인 위험 비교를 통하여 고위험 사고 평가 방안으로 활용가능하다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 이러한 연구결과를 반영하여 고위험군에 대한 안전투자계획 및 예방정책이 우선시 된다면 한정된 재원으로 효율적으로 사고를 관리할 수 있는 측면에서 도움이 될 것이다.

공통요인이 주식수익률간 상관행렬과 분산투자에 미치는 영향

엄철준(Cheoljun Eom),박종원(Jong Won Park) 한국증권학회 2016 한국증권학회지 Vol.45 No.4

본 연구는 주식수익률에 영향을 미치는 것으로 잘 알려진 공통요인이 주식수익률간 상관관계행렬과 포트폴리오의 분산투자 수준에 미치는 영향을 검증하였다. 공통요인의 속성을 반영하는 상관관계행렬을 추정한 후, 이를 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 최적화함수에 적용하는 기존연구와는 달리 본 연구에서는 상관관계행렬로부터 공통요인의 속성을 제거함으로서 해당 요인이 상관관계행렬에서 갖는 영향력을 직접 분석한다. 또 포트폴리오 구성에 원래 상관관계행렬을 적용한 결과와 공통요인이 제거된 상관관계행렬을 적용한 결과를 비교하여 분산투자와 위험감소에 미치는 영향을 검증한다. 2004년~2014년의 한국 주식시장의 자료를 이용하여 분석한 본 연구의 주요결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 선정된 7가지 공통요인(시장요인, 규모요인, 가치요인, 모멘텀, 단기반전요인, 장기반전요인, 유동성요인)이 상관관계행렬에 미치는 상대적 영향력을 분석한 결과는, 시장요인이 가장 큰 영향력을 보였다. 기업규모에 따라 표본을 구분한 결과는 대규모 주식에서는 시장요인, 가치요인, 장기반전요인 등이 상대적으로 높은 영향력을 보였으며, 소규모 주식에서는 규모요인이 분명한 차이를 만들었다. 둘째, 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 최적화함수에 적용한 결과는, 상관관계행렬에 대한 공통요인의 영향력 차이가 분산투자 및 위험축소의 정도에 의미 있는 영향을 미침을 보여 준다. 특히 시장요인이 조정된 상관관계행렬을 이용한 포트폴리오에서 분산투자 및 위험축소 정도의 차이가 다른 공통요인에 비하여 분명하게 높게 나타난다. 기업규모에 따라 구분한 경우 소규모주식집단에서 규모요인이 조정된 상관관계행렬로부터 도출된 분산투자와 위험축소 수준이 대규모주식의 경우와 분명한 차이를 보였다. 마지막으로, 시장요인을 제거한 상관관계행렬을 이용한 최적화 함수로부터 도출된 포트폴리오의 분산투자 및 위험축소 수준이 원래 상관관계행렬을 이용한 경우에 비해 우월하였다. 이는 시장요인이 기존연구에서 보고된 자산배분 최적화함수의 실무적용에서 나타나는 문제(이론적 기대와 달리 실제적으로는 투자비중이 제한된 종목들에 집중되는 문제)의 원인이 될 수 있음을 보여주는 흥미로운 결과이며, 본 연구에서 제안하는 공통요인의 속성을 직접적으로 통제한 상관관계행렬을 이용하는 방법이 공통요인의 상대적 영향력 평가와 자산배분 최적화함수의 실무적용상의 문제점을 개선시킬 수 있는 대안이 될 수 있음을 시사한다. In this paper, we examine the effect of common factors on correlation matrix of stock returns and portfolio diversification and risk reduction. Contrary to the traditional method which uses the property of common factors to estimate the correlation matrix, we use the adjusted correlation matrices which are excluded the properties of common factors from the original correlation matrix. Selected common factors are the market risk premium, SMB, HML, Momentum, Long-run reversal, Short-run reversal, and Liquidity factors. Major empirical results for the Korean Stock Market are as follows: First, the market factor has the most powerful effect on the correlation matrix of stock returns. And in the large stock group the market factor, SMB, and HML have a relatively high influence, but in the small stock group the size factor (SMB) makes a distinct difference between the two correlation matrices. Second, the results of portfolio optimization show that the effect of common factors on correlation matrix makes a significant influence on the portfolio diversification and risk reduction. Especially, the difference of diversification and risk reduction between the original portfolio optimization results and the adjusted portfolio optimization results is very large in case of using the adjusted correlation matrix with the market factor compared to those of other common factors. And in the small stock group the difference of diversification and risk reduction is large in case of using the adjusted correlation matrix with the size factor compared to the large stock group. Third, the performance of diversification and risk reduction is very high in case of using the adjusted correlation matrix with the market factor compared to those of original correlation matrix. These results mean that the practical problem of portfolio optimization function in real field (the results with concentrated diversification portfolios instead of the well-diversified portfolio which is expected in the portfolio theory) is caused by the effect of market factor on the correlation matrix and the adjusted correlation matrix which is excluded the property of common factor can be useful for constructing the optimal portfolio in real field.

CDU 내 탈황공정의 내부부식 된 파이프라인을 대상으로 한 RBI기법을 이용한 위험성 평가

임동휘,정태준,이인동,정인희,고재욱 한국가스학회 2019 한국가스학회지 Vol.23 No.3

2010년대에 들어서 노후화된 공정으로 인하여 많은 공장들의 안전이 보장되지 않은 채로 가동되고 있다. 공정및 설비의 노후화 문제를 근본적으로 해결하기는 어렵지만, 사전에 위험성 평가로 위험을 예방할 수있다. 본 연구는 CDU(Crude Distillation Unit)의 탈황 장비에 있는 배관에서 황으로 인한 부식을 타겟으로 지정하였고, API RP 581를 참고한 RBI(Risk Based Inspection)기법으로 위험성 평가를 실시하였다. RBI 기법은 Frequency와Consequence의 조합으로 Risk를 표현하고, 이들을 바탕으로 Risk Matrix를 만든다. 본 연구는 배관의 Hole Size를Small과 Medium으로, Frequency의 감도는 ‘Low’로 선택하여 진행하였다. 기준을 통해 만들어진 Risk Matrix를 참고하여 배관에서 황으로 인한 부식의 사고 위험성을 평가하고 향후 사고 방지 계획을 세울 수 있다. 또한 이와 비슷한 방법으로 노후화에 대한 예방을 한다면 보이지 않는 크고 작은 사고들도 예방 할 수 있다. in 2010s, many factories are operating without any safety guarantees due to the aging process. Although it is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem of aging process and equipment, Prevent risk by risk assessment in advance. This study targets the corrosion caused by sulfur in the piping in the CDU(Crude Distillation Unit) process desulfurization equipment and conducts the risk assessment by RBI(Risk Based Inspection) referring to API RP 581. RBI expresses the risk by combining frequency and consequence, and creates a risk matrix based on these expression. In this study, the hole size of the pipe was selected as Small and Medium, and the sensitivity of the frequency was selected as 'Low'. You can refer to the Risk Matrix created from the standard to evaluate the risk of corrosion of sulfur from pipes in the piping and to plan future accident prevention. Similarly, prevention of aging in a similar way can prevent large and small incidents that are not visible.

도시철도차량 적용을 위한 위험도 매트릭스 개발에 관한 연구

김영삼 한국안전학회 2011 한국안전학회지 Vol.26 No.6

Risk-based railway safety management has been mandatory in Korea as by relevant laws and regulations enacted since the Railway Safety Act 2004. In particular, the Railway Vehicle Safety Guidance came into effect on Jan 1, 2008 specifies the details of methodology for hazard analysis, risk assessment and safety verification and validation. Fundamentals for success of the risk-based safety management are systematic hazard identification and risk assessment by use of reasonable risk assessment criteria, but the principle of risk-based safety management has not been applied in an effective way to introduction and maintenance of railway vehicle systems because definite risk assessment criteria have not been set down for each railway system or railway network. The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk matrix development principle for risk assessment of domestic urban metro vehicles by analyses of relevant rules and railway operating environment of Korea

적응형 뉴로-퍼지(ANFIS)를 이용한 도시철도 시스템 위험도 평가 연구

탁길훈,구정서 한국안전학회 2022 한국안전학회지 Vol.37 No.1

In the risk assessment of urban railway systems, a hazard log is created by identifying hazards from accident and failure data. Then, based on a risk matrix, evaluators analyze the frequency and severity of the occurrence of the hazards, conduct the risk assessment, and then establish safety measures for the risk factors prior to risk control. However, because subjective judgments based on the evaluators' experiences affect the risk assessment results, a more objective and automated risk assessment system must be established. In this study, we propose a risk assessment model in which an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which is combined in artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy inference system (FIS), is applied to the risk assessment of urban railway systems. The newly proposed model is more objective and automated, alleviating the limitations of risk assessments that use a risk matrix. In addition, the reliability of the model was verified by comparing the risk assessment results and risk control priorities between the newly proposed ANFIS-based risk assessment model and the risk assessment using a risk matrix. Results of the comparison indicate that a high level of accuracy was demonstrated in the risk assessment results of the proposed model, and uncertainty and subjectivity were mitigated in the risk control priority.

확률 기반의 위험등급평가 객관화 방안

신상식 ( Sang Sik Shin ),이길수 ( Kil Soo Lee ),조흥기 ( Heung Gi Cho ) 한국품질경영학회 2013 품질경영학회지 Vol.41 No.3

Purpose: To provide a variety of stable military supplies. risk should be avoided or removed. This paper aims to provide an objective method of risk assesruent for risk matrix to evaluate risk level. Methods: According to previous results of risk assesrnent through risk matrix. some parameters and probability density functions. which include characteristics of military supplies. are selected and Risk matrix is modelled based on that. Results: Results show that a proposed method can evaluate objectively risk level through the stochastic modelling and provide well-balanced risk assessments by categorizing into 3 levels such as high, middle and low level risk. Conclusion: A current risk assessment method includes substantial subjectivity of risk assessment and as a problem about military supplies comes up, we can not show any appropriate evidences for decision of risk assessment. We propose an objective scheme employing stochastic modelling with parameters and probability density functions.