A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs

원하람,심재승,안현철 한국지능정보시스템학회 2019 지능정보연구 Vol.25 No.1

Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

성범죄 전자감독대상자들에 대한 재범추적 연구

이승원,이수정,서혜란 한국법심리학회 2021 한국심리학회지: 법 Vol.12 No.1

In this study, we analyzed the difference in survival rates of those subject to electronic supervision of sex crimes based on the tracking of the period of recidivism and whether they were recidivism, and wanted to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. The criteria for recidivism were defined as cases where a conviction was confirmed due to a criminal case that occurred during the execution of electronic monitoring, and the date of recidivism was the date of occurrence of a case that was confirmed guilty. A total of 122 re-offenders were used in the analysis, and all of them were charged with electronic supervision for committing sex crimes. Studies have confirmed that the subjects commit the most recidivism within three years. In addition, in this study, the difference in survival rate between groups was analyzed after classifying mixed and sex recidivism cases. The number of members was 88 for the mixed recidivism group and 34 for the sex recidivism group. The analysis confirmed that both groups had the most recidivism within three years. There was a slight difference between the survival rate of the mixed recidivism group and the survival rate of the sex recidivism group. So the Log Rank Test and the Generalized Wilcoxon Test were conducted, but no statistically significant differences were identified(Wilcoxon statistic = 2.326, df = 1, p = .13, Log Rank = 1.345, df = 1, p = .25). Next, a Cox Regression analysis was performed to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. As a result, the number of criminal records(sex offense, violent crime) have been confirmed to be a good predictor of recidivism(=27.33, =1, < .001). As a result, the recidivism rate is gradually decreasing due to the implementation of the electronic monitoring. However, the duration of recidivism required by sex offenders in high-risk groups was found to be rather short. Currently, security measures against felons are being strengthened, so it is necessary to select high-risk groups. Therefore, based on the related studies, the characteristics of high-risk groups and the results of recidivism studies will be used as a basis for disposal within the criminal justice system, which will play a major role in granting objectivity. 본 연구에서는 성범죄 전자감독대상자들의 재범 기간 추적과 동종재범여부에 따른 생존율의 차이를 분석하였으며, 범죄전력의 재범예측력을 확인하고자하였다. 재범에 대한 기준은 전자감독 실시 중 발생한 범죄사건으로 인해 유죄가 확정된 경우로 정의하였으며, 재범일은 유죄로 확정된 사건의 사건발생일로 하였다. 분석에 활용된 재범자는 122명, 비재범자는 126명이며, 모두 성범죄를 저질러 전자감독명령을 부과 받은 대상자이다. 연구 결과, 성범죄 전자감독대상자 중 재범을 저지른 자들은 대부분 3년 이내에 재범하는 것으로 확인되었다. 또한 본 연구에서는 재범사건을 이종재범과 동종재범으로 분류한 후 집단 간 생존율의 차이를 분석하였다. 집단구성인원은 각각 이종재범집단 88명, 동종재범집단 34명으로 분석 결과, 두 집단 모두 3년 이내에 가장 많은 재범이 확인되었다. 이종재범집단의 생존율과 동종재범집단의 생존율은 다소 차이가 나타나는 것으로 확인되어 비교분석을 수행하였으며 통계적으로 유의한 수준의 차이는 확인되지 않았다(Wilcoxon statistic = 2.326, df = 1, p = .13, Log Rank = 1.345, df = 1, p = .25). 다음으로 범죄전력 변수의 재범 예측력 확인을 위해 Cox회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 성범죄 전력횟수와 폭력범죄 전력횟수는 성범죄 전자감독대상자의 재범을 잘 예측하는 것으로 분석되었다(=27.33, =1, < .001). 결과적으로 최근 발표되는 자료들에 따르면, 전자감독의 시행으로 재범률이 점차 낮아지고 있으나, 전자감독 대상자 중 고위험군(재범집단)에 속하는 대상자들의 재범소요기간은 다소 짧은 것으로 확인되었다. 이들에 대한 집중적인 통제와 관리가 이루어지기 위해서는 초고위험 집단을 선별할 필요가 있다. 이에, 본 연구와 같이 고위험군에 대한 특성 및 재범연구들을 기반으로 처분의 근거를 마련하는 것은 형사사법절차의 객관성을 부여하는데 있어 큰 역할을 할 것이다.

집행유예 양형요소로서 재범위험성 평가

권미연 ( Kwon Miyon ),서용성,이단비 사법정책연구원 2023 연구보고서 Vol.2023 No.10

This study aims to identify the criteria that should be used to assess the risk of recidivism and how the risk of recidivism should be reviewed in deciding whether to suspend a prison sentence, and to provide recommendations for improvements. For these purposes, the study focuses on three subjects: the meaning of recidivism in suspended sentences, the method of incorporating risk assessment into sentencing guidelines, and examining factors which influence sentencing. The aforementioned aspects are considered in the first part of the study as it reviews the current state of Korean legal system. Although the Korean Criminal Act does not explicitly state the goals of sentencing, a sentence must consider its purpose of crime prevention being in proportion to the offender’s degree of responsibility in accordance with Article 51 of the Criminal Act, Article 81-6 (2) of the Court Organization Act, and precedents established by the Supreme Court. Moreover, the risk of recidivism serves as an important criterion for suspended sentence, as suspended sentence reflects the perspective of rehabilitation purpose. Sentencing guidelines in South Korea provides conditions of suspended sentences according to the type of offense, but the guidelines have not yet been systematized around the risk of recidivism for various reasons. Also, while pre-sentence investigations are not generally conducted, judges still decide the sentence after reviewing only the evidence presented by the parties concerned in the case. To entrench fairness and objectivity in sentencing, the sentencing system needs to be improved. In order to propose recommendations for the improvement, this study has conducted comparative legal research. In the United States and England and Wales, risk assessment tools, developed based on empirical studies, are widely used in criminal procedures. Particularly, in sentencing hearings, risk assessment tools are used in pre-sentence investigations, and based on the results, judges impose sentences appropriate for the defendant's liability and rehabilitation. On the other hand, risk assessment tools are not being used in Germany and France. In Germany, Article 56 of the Penal Code prescribes the substantive requirements for suspended sentences depending on the prison term, and precedent cases on sentencing issues provides criteria related to the risk of recidivism. In France, according to the principle of individualized sentences, which is based on the New Social Defense Doctrine, individualized justice focused on rehabilitation is being emphasized. As it is in Germany, the criteria related to the risk of recidivism are also determined by precedent cases in France. It is notable that all four countries run investigation systems that help the court understand the individual and the circumstances of the offense to determine an appropriate sentence. Risk assessment tools used in the U.S. and England extract several factors related to recidivism (e.g., gender, age, criminal record, education level, etc.) based on criminal psychology, statistics, sociology, etc., and classify offenders through structured professional judgment or actuarial risk assessment. The risk assessment tools are positively evaluated in that they reduce recidivism by providing individualized rehabilitation programs for each criminal defendant, systematize sentencing decisions related to the risk of recidivism, and realize evidence-based sentencing. On the other hand, several problems have been pointed out, such as that while the accuracy of the tools is not remarkably high, bias appears due to the use of race and gender as risk assessment factors, and that since artificial intelligence algorithm-based tools are currently impossible to verify, there is a risk of violating due process principle. Since such tools were introduced as part of the correctional policy from the utilitarian point of view, they do not conform to the Korean legal system which strictly distinguishes between punishment and measures for rehabilitation, and between court sentencing and correctional systems. Also, as the trade-off between accuracy and fairness has not been resolved and no risk assessment tools are available to support sentencing in Korea, it is currently not appropriate to introduce risk assessment tools directly into the sentencing hearing process. However, since each factor in the risk assessment tools is an element which has a high correlation with recidivism recognized through empirical researches, it is still possible to extract the risk factors that do not conflict with other normative values, such as the principle of liability and equality, and reflect them in the guidelines. Accordingly, this study reviews each risk factor of the risk assessment tools developed or used in Korea to propose a revision to the guidelines. In the guideline on general crimes, “records of juvenile detentions indicating the criminal tendency of the accused” should be added as a criterion. “Alcoholism” should function as a criterion only in violent crimes, and “drug addiction” only in drug-related crimes. Also, the study proposes creating new definitions of “alcoholism or drug addiction” and “social relationship”. With regard to sexual offenses, “cases where the offenders were under the age of 20 when committing their first sexual offense and are currently under the age of 25 (for sexual offenses against children under the age of 13)” and “cases where there are two or more unknown victims, including this crime” are proposed to be added as criteria, and the criterion of “previous convictions for similar offences” to be amended to “previous convictions for similar offences and for violent crimes”. In addition, a pre-sentence investigation is needed for certain factors, such as “problematic behavior shown during the supervision period”, “antisocial tendencies”, “alcoholic or drug addiction”, and “social relationship”. And separate guidelines for suspended sentence for sex offenses against children should be developed, as sex offenses against children have different characteristics from those against adults. In order to properly apply the criteria that reflect the risk of recidivism in trial practices, pre-sentence investigations should be conducted generally by court investigators. Among the recently proposed amendments to the Criminal Procedure Act regarding pre-sentence investigations, the provision limiting the range of cases should be removed, but the rest of the proposed amendments needs to be passed quickly. In the long term, researches to develop risk assessment tools for sentencing, training courses on the use of tools for court investigators and on the interpretation of assessment results for judges are also necessary. For sentencing hearings, the study suggests, ① pre-sentence investigation orders, the starting point of sentencing hearings, to be ‘general investigation orders’ based on sentencing guidelines, ② delays in cases due to sentencing hearings be minimized by using the sentencing guidelines table, and ③ computerized pre-sentence reports be utilized to make it easier for judges to provide detailed reasons for the sentence imposed. This study is meaningful as a preliminary research on how to reflect the risk of recidivism, to which little attention has been paid so far, in sentencing guidelines and sentencing hearings. Based on this study, it is hoped that further research and discussions on the risk of recidivism be continued in the overall discussion of the criminal procedure.

신상정보등록 대상 성범죄자의 재범에 미치는 영향요인에 대한 연구

장현석,한영선,홍명기 경찰대학 치안정책연구소 2020 치안정책연구 Vol.34 No.4

본 연구는 법무부에 신상정보가 등록되어 관리되고 있는 남성 성범죄자들의 재범률을 파악하고, 이들의 성범죄 재범에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하고자 수행되었다. 기존의 신상정보가 등록된 성범죄자들의 재범에 미치는 영향을 탐색한 선행연구의 경우, 성범죄자들의 신상정보 등록부터 재범까지 기간의 차이가 고려되지 않았다는 점 그리고 연구 자료가 1년 내지 2년으로 한정되어 있었다는 점 등 정책의 효과성을 명확히 분석하는데 한계가 있었다. 이러한 한계점을 개선하고자 본 연구는 2008년부터 2018년까지 등록된 남성 성범죄자 61,183명을 대상으로 생존분석을 실시하였다. 구체적으로, 본 연구는 인구사회학적 변수들, 성범죄 가해 특성 변수들, 그리고 형사사법기관의 처분 변수들이 남성 성범죄들의 재범에 어떠한 영향을 주는지 조사하였다. 분석 결과, 연령이 낮을수록, 직업이 없을수록, 이전 성범죄전과가 있을수록 재범의 위험성이 높았다. 성범죄 가해 특성 변수들 중에는 미성년자 대상 성범죄자와 불법촬영 범죄를 저지른 남성 성범죄자는 재범의 위험이 유의미하게 높았고, 성매매 범죄와 불법음란물 범죄를 저지른 경우에는 재범위험성이 유의미하게 낮았다. 징역형 선고기간, 수강명령기간, 사회봉사명령기간은 성범죄자의 재범에 부(-)적인 영향을 주었다. 반면에, 보호관찰기간은 재범에 정(+)적인 영향을 미쳤다. 신상정보 공개처분과 전자장치부착기간은 재범에 유의미한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 또한 신상정보가 등록된 시점부터 다시 범죄를 저지른 시점까지의 재범자 비율을 추가적으로 분석한 결과, 재범자의 비율이 등록 이후 3개월 이내에 12.25%, 24개월 내에 68.61%를 육박하는 것으로 나타났다. 끝으로 분석 결과에 대한 해석과 정책적 함의에 대해 논의하였다. This study aimed to examine the recidivism rate and the factors affecting the recidivism of male sex offenders whose personal information has been registered and managed at the Ministry of Justice. In the case of the previous studies the recidivism of registered sex offenders, they did not consider the variations of duration in recommitting sex offenses and had limitations by including just one or two years’ worth of the data. In order to overcome these limitations, this study implemented survival analysis using 61,183 male registered sex offenders who were registered between 2008 and 2018. Specifically, this study examined the influence of demographic variables, sex offender’s offense characteristics variables, and criminal justice institutions’ disposition variables on recidivism. As a result of the analysis, sex offenders with younger, without job, and with prior sex offense history showed a higher risk of recidivism. Among sex offender’s offense characteristics, sex offenders who victimized juveniles, and who committed illegal photographing showed a significantly higher risk of recidivism while sex offenders who committed prostitution and who committed pornography crimes showed a significantly lower risk of recidivism. The duration of prison sentence, duration of class-taking order, and duration of social service order had negative impacts on the recidivism of male sex offenders. On the other hand, the duration of probation showed a positive effect on recidivism. The open of personal information and the duration of wearing electronic devices had no significant relationship with recidivism. Also, further analysis of the recidivism rate from the point of registration to repeated crime shows the recidivism rate up to 12.25% within three months and 68.61% within 24 months. Finally, the interpretation of the results and policy implications are discussed.

소년범 재범위험요인에서의 성차연구 : JDRAI-D를 중심으로

양은경,이수정,김병배 한국여성심리학회 2018 한국심리학회지 여성 Vol.23 No.1

The purpose of this study is to figure out the factors influencing the recidivism of delinquent juveniles. This study also tried to find out whether male and female adolescents have different characteristics causing recidivism or not. 188 juvenile delinquents (95 males and 93 females) in South Korea, who were put either on probation or in a juvenile detention center, participated in this study. The purpose of this study is to figure out the factors influencing the recidivism of delinquent juveniles. This study also tried to find out whether male and female adolescents have different characteristics causing recidivism or not. 188 juvenile delinquents (95 males and 93 females) in South Korea, who were put either on probation or in a juvenile detention center, participated in this study. The Juvenile Delinquency Risk Assessment Inventory-Dynamic (JDRAI-D) was used to measure the risk of recidivism. JDRAI-D is a dynamic risk assessment tool measuring dynamic factors such as a personality·attitude, school/workplace, family, peer friends, mental health, leisure/lifestyle and sexual behavior factor. The history of delinquency used to predict the recommitted crime. Also, male and female data separately were analyzed in order to see the gender differences in recidivism risk factors. Multiple regression analyses were used to examine the explanatory power of factors of JDRAI-D in delinquent juveniles. These results showed that the ‘personality․attitude factor’ has more meaningful explanatory power (β=.39, p<.001) in the male adolescents. Also, we can read off that female delinquents affect significant explanatory powers on the 'personality․attitude factor'(β=.45, p<.001), and on the 'mental health factor'(β=.20, p<.05). The results of this study showed how the ‘personality․attitude and mental health factors’ impinge on recidivism by the juvenile delinquents. Especially, it was found that the significant gender difference exists in recidivism risk factors. Multiple regression analyses were used to examine the explanatory power of factors of JDRAI-D in delinquent juveniles. These results showed that the ‘personality·attitude factor’ has more meaningful explanatory power (β=.39, p<.001) in the male adolescents. Also, we can read off that female delinquents affect significant explanatory powers on the 'personality·attitude factor'(β=.45, p<.001), and on the mental health factor(β=.20, p<.05). The results of this study showed how the ‘personality·attitude and mental health factors’ impinge on recidivism by the juvenile delinquents. Especially, it was found that the significant gender difference exists in recidivism risk factors.

일본의 재범방지대책에 관한 검토 - 소년범죄자 재범방지대책을 중심으로 -

배상균 ( Bae Sangkyun ) 한국소년정책학회 2018 少年保護硏究 Vol.31 No.3

Recently, brutal crimes by juvenile delinquents is treated as a big social problem in Korea. Also, Offenses have been decreasing in Japan, but the juvenile recidivism rate is high enough to reach about 40%(only penal law crimes). Therefore the government of Japan is systematically advancing the preventing recidivism against juvenile offenders as the main policy task. In connection with this, in July 2012 ‘the Comprehensive Measures to Prevent Recidivism’ were enforced, and through this, we are promoting smooth social rehabilitation support to a juvenile. Also, The preventing recidivism matters have been conduct under 'Law for the Prevention of Recidivism' in 2016. In Japan, therefore, measures are taken to prevent recidivism of juvenile delinquents based on these laws. For example, prevention of juvenile delinquency are not only treatments that respect juvenile's intent and personality, but also, for the supporting smooth rehabilitation, securing housing for juveniles and finding employment. In this way, in order to prevent juvenile offenders from recidivism, it is necessary to develop a legal system to establish a more concrete and sustainable support system.

사기범의 중화기술과 재범의 관계에서 자존감의 조절효과

공정식 원광대학교 경찰학연구소 2020 경찰학논총 Vol.15 No.1

본 연구는 사기범의 중화기술유형과 재범 간의 관계에서 자존감의 조절효과를 검증하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 연구대상으로 사기범을 선택한 이유는 다양한 범죄유형 중에서 우리나라가 OECD에서 사기범죄 발생률 1위라는 점을 감안하였고, 자료수집은 설문조사방식으로 수집된 데이터를 통계분석하였다. 선행연구결과, 범죄유형별로 중화기술유형의 차이유무에 대한 논란이 있으나, 최근 국내외 연구들은 범죄유형별로 중화기술유형에 차이가 있음을 주장하는 연구들이 많다. 이에 사기범들의 중화기술유형도 다른 범죄들과는 차이가 있을 것으로 가정하고 연구를 진행하였다. 특히 사기범들의 중화기술, 자존감, 재범 간의 연관성에 대하여 구체적으로 검증하는 것에 초점을 두었다. 분석결과를 보면, 첫째 단일변수로 통합된 중화기술과 재범의 관계에서 자존감의 조절효과는 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 둘째 사기범의 중화기술 유형 중에서 ‘비난자 비난’과 ‘상위가치호소’가 재범에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났는데, 먼저 ‘비난자 비난’과 재범의 관계에서 자존감의 조절효과는 정(+)적으로 나타났고, ‘상위가치호소’와 재범의 관계에서 자존감의 조절효과는 부(-)적으로 나타났는데, 이러한 결과들은 통계적으로 유의하였다. 따라서 사기범들이 ‘비난자 비난’을 많이 할수록 자존감이 높아지고 재범은 감소한다는 것이며, 사기범들이 ‘상위가치호소’를 많이 할수록 자존감이 낮아지고 재범이 증가한다는 것을 의미한다. 즉 중화기술 유형에 따라 재범에 미치는 자존감의 조절효과는 달라진다고 할 수 있다. 결론을 보면, 사기범들을 대상으로 한 범죄예방이나 교화대책을 위한 프로그램에서 자존감향상을 위한 개입은 중화기술의 유형에 따라 다르게 구성하는 것이 효과적일 것으로 보인다. 더불어서 과거에 중화기술 유형은 재범증가의 요인으로만 일관되게 취급되어 왔으나, 자존감이 개입되는 경우에는 오히려 재범감소의 요인으로 작용할 수 있다는 점, 그리고 새로운 중화기술유형의 등장, 시대변화에 맞는 중화기술유형에 대한 재해석이 필요할 것으로 보인다. This study was conducted to verify the moderating effect of self-esteem in the relationship between the fraudster's neutralization type and the recidivism. The research specially limited fraudster as a research object since Korea has the highest incidence of fraud in the OECD. Data was collected through survey and was statistically analyzed. While the preceding research results show that there is a controversy over the difference in the type of neutralization by crime type, recent domestic and foreign studies argue that the difference exists. Thus, the study was conducted on the assumption that the fraudster’s form of neutralization technique would be different from other crimes. In particular, the focus was on verifying the relationship between fraudster’s type of neutralization technique, self-esteem and recidivism. The results are as follow: first, the moderating effect of self-esteem was not statistically significant in the relationship between neutralization and recidivism, integrated as a single variable. Second, it was found that among the fraudster’s neutralization types, ‘condemnation of the condemners’ and ‘appeal to higher loyalties’ affected the recidivism: specifically, the moderating effect of self-esteem in the relationship between ‘condemnation of the condemners’ and recidivism was positive, and the moderating effect of self-esteem in the relationship between ‘appeal to higher loyalties’ and recidivism was negative, with both results statistically significant. Thus, the more the fraudsters present ‘condemnation of the condemners’, the higher their self-esteem and lower the number of recidivism, while the more the fraudsters showed ‘appeal to higher loyalties’, the lower their self-esteem and higher the recidivism rate. In other words, the moderating effect of self-esteem on recidivism depends on the type of neutralization technique. In conclusion, for programs aimed at preventing crimes against fraudster or for correction programs, it will be effective to organize the intervention to improve self-esteem differently depending on the type of neutralization technique. Furthermore, in the past, the type of neutralization technique has only been consistently treated as a factor of increasing recidivism, but given that heightening the self-esteem may rather reduce recidivism, the emergence of new neutralization technique and a reinterpretation of neutralization technique types in line with the changing times are likely to be necessary.

수형자의 재범요인 연구

남상철,박상석 한국교정학회 2011 矯正硏究 Vol.- No.50

This paper is to research recidivism factors studying 403 recidivists. Main factors which are used to analyse, are as follows; demographic-sociological factor, pre-imprisonment factor, correctional step factor, post-release factor. As general characteristics of the objects, they were mostly low-educated(244 recidivists, 60.3%, were under middle school graduated), had commonly poor family support and mostly suffered from extreme poverty and unstable vocations before their imprisonments. Their 'first arrest' ages were so low that they did not have chances of appropriate nurturing in the early steps of their lives. Of the demographic-sociological recidivism factors, monthly income and education level were significant. For the pre-imprisonment factors, parental nurturing attitude and recidivism were in inverse relation, whereas anti-sociality were in direct relation with recidivism. For the correctional step factors, correctional subculture and recidivism were in direct relation. The more numbers of criminal record recidivists had, the higher level of social stigma they had after release. With the regressive analyses, it is found that significant recidivism factors are monthly income, a recidivist's perception for parental nurturing attitude and anti-sociality, correctional subculture, first arrest, social stigma etc. To strengthen rehabilitation by improving the significant recidivism factors, a stigmatic viewpoint towards inmates should be converted and correctional welfare policies should be arranged in more substantial dimension. 본 연구는 수형자 403명을 대상으로 재범에 영향을 미치는 요인을 연구하였다. 주요 변인은 인구사회학적요인, 입소 전 요인, 교정 단계 요인, 출소 후 사회 경험 등을 중심으로 분석하였다. 대상자의 일반적 특성으로 학력은 중학교 졸업 이하가 244명(60.3%)으로 나타나 전반적으로 낮은 학력 수준을 보이고 있으며, 가족 지지체계는 부재한 경우가 많았고 입소 직전 경제적 상태는 다수의 수형자가 취약하였고 직업 상태가 불안정하였다. ‘최초 검거’연령이 낮아 인생발달의 초기 단계에서부터 올바른 성장의 기회를 가지지 못한 것으로 나타났다. 재범에 영향을 미치는 인구사회적 요인 분석에서 월수입, 학력수준 등이 주요변인으로 나타났으며, ‘입소 전 주요변수’인 부모의 양육태도와는 부적인 관계를 나타내었고 반사회성과는 교정단계의 주요 변인인 교정부문화와는 정적인 상관성을 보였다. 또한 재범 횟수가 높을수록 출소 후 사회 낙인 정도는 높고 사회적 지지체계는 약화되는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 재범 요인을 선정하여 회귀 분석한 결과 학력, 월수입, 부모의 양육태도지각, 반사회성, 교정부문화성, 최초검거, 사회낙인, 사회적지지 부재 등이 주요 요인으로 작용하는 것을 발견할 수 있었다. 재범 주요 요인들을 개선하여 사회복귀를 강화하기 위해서는 낙인적 수형자관을 전환하여 보다 실질적인 차원에서 교정복지 정책을 마련하여야 할 것이다.

소년범의 기질차원 및 성격특성이 재범에 미치는 영향: 부모양육태도의 조절효과를 중심으로

이형철,서수균 경찰대학 치안정책연구소 2023 치안정책연구 Vol.37 No.4

본 연구는 소년범의 기질차원 및 성격특성이 재범에 미치는 영향을 알아보고, 소년범의 기질차원 또는 성격특성과 재범과의 관계에서 부모양육태도의 조절효과를 검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 전국 9개 지역, 총 160명의 소년범을 대상으로 실시된 설문자료를 분석에 활용하였다. 주요 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 소년범의 기질차원은 재범에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 둘째, 소년범의 외향성(E)이 높아질수록 재범에 저촉할 확률이 유의하게 증가했다. 셋째, 지각된 부모의 부정적양육태도의 수준에 따라 소년범의 기질차원 또는 성격특성이 재범에 미치는 영향력이 달라지는 것으로 나타났다. 부모의 부정적양육태도에서 과잉기대와 학대는 소년범의 위험회피(HA)기질과 재범의 관계를 유의하게 조절하였다. 또한, 아버지의 학대는 개방성(O) 성격특성과 재범의 관계를 유의하게 조절하였다. 그러나, 부모의 긍정적 양육태도에 따른 조절효과는 유의하게 나타나지 않았다. 본 연구의 결과는 소년범의 기질차원 또는 성격특성이 재범에 미치는 영향에 있어 부모의 부정적 양육태도가 중요한 조절변인으로 작용하고 있음을 보여준다. 이와 같은 결과를 중심으로 본 연구의 의의 및 제한점에 대해 논의하였다. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of juvenile offenders' temperament and personality characteristics on recidivism, and to verify the moderating effect of parental parenting attitudes in the relationship between juvenile offenders' temperament or personality characteristics and recidivism. To this end, survey data conducted on a total of 160 juvenile offenders in 9 regions nationwide were used for analysis. The main findings are as follows. First, the temperament level of juvenile offenders did not significantly affect recidivism. Second, as the extroversion (E) of juvenile offenders increased, the probability of violating recidivism increased significantly. Third, it was found that the influence of the temperament level or personality characteristics of juvenile offenders on recidivism varies depending on the level of perceived negative parenting attitude of parents. In the negative parenting attitude of parents, excessive expectations and abuse significantly controlled the relationship between the juvenile offender's risk aversion (HA) substrate and recidivism. In addition, the father's abuse significantly controlled the relationship between openness (O) personality characteristics and recidivism. On the other hand, the moderating effect according to the positive parenting attitude of parents was not significant. The results of this study show that parents' negative parenting attitude acts as an important modulating variable in the effect of juvenile offenders' temperament or personality characteristics on recidivism. Focusing on these results, the significance and limitations of this study were discussed

Neighborhood Contexts and Recidivism : Current Status and Future Directions

Kim, Byung-bae,Lee, Baik-chul 아시아교정포럼 2019 교정담론 Vol.13 No.2

전통적 재범연구는 중요한 이론적 정책적 지식체계들을 양산해왔 음에도 불구하고, 재범이 발생하는 사회적 맥락을 충분히 고려해오 지 못했다는 비판에 직면해 왔다. 이러한 점에 착안하여, 최근 서구 에서는 범죄자가 거주하는 지역사회의 중요성과 재범과의 연관성을 강조하는 연구가 발표되고 있다. 본 논문의 목적은 미국에서 출간된 사회생태학과 재범 관련 논문을 범죄자의 지역사회에 강조점을 두어 소개하고자 하는 것에 있다. 논문의 전반부에서는 지역사회의 개별 특성을 보호요인과 위험요인으로 나누고, 개별 변수들과 범죄자의 재범간 관계를 분석한 선행연구들을 리뷰하였다. 본 논문의 후반부 에서는 지역사회와 재범이라는 연구주제에 대한 현재 문헌들의 문제 점 및 향후 발전방향을 이론적, 방법론적 차원 등에서 논의하고, 향 후 한국에서도 범죄자의 재범행동을 연구함에 있어 지역사회의 맥락 이 고려되어야 함을 강조하였다. Traditional recidivism studies have established an important body of knowledge, but are also criticized of not fully taking into considerations the contexts in which recidivism occurs. In this regard, there has emerged a small but growing number of studies, which highlights the importance of neighborhood contexts where offenders reside. The present paper aims to introduce the social ecology and recidivism literature published in the U.S. with particular attention devoted to identifying risk and protective dimensions of neighborhood contexts. In so doing, the efforts are also made to lay out the theoretical and methodological challenges for the topic of neighborhood and recidivism. Finally, this study concludes with suggestions for future research in Korea.