한국정부의 대중국외교에 대한 전망이론적 분석 -문재인정부의 사드 외교협상을 중심으로-

신진 대한정치학회 2018 大韓政治學會報 Vol.26 No.2

The theory for analyzing the policy decision process is based on the rational judgment of humans and the psychology of maximizing the expected benefits. It is because humans can not make rational decisions due to various kinds of limitations. The prospect theory explains the behavior of human rational choice in the extension of the epistemological approach. Prospect theory is a theory that rationally explains decisions that are difficult to interpret as rational choice theory. Decision makers facing critical decisions recognize the world in their own world. They can see the possibility from the impossible and see the vision of prosperity in the ruins. The prospect theory emphasizes that the criterion of human value judgment is different from reality. The prospect theory focuses on where policy makers place the realities on the baseline to judge loss and profit. In prospect theory, a reference point of judgment is an important measure of policy decision as the problem of relative gains is the most important measure of policy decision in neorealism. In this way, prospect theory rationalizes the phenomenon that seems to make an irrational choice. In this study, we analyzed the reason why South Korea, which suffered unjust economic retaliation in relation to the THAAD deployment in Korea, could not ask China for damages and prevent recurrence in the negotiation process with China. The analysis based on the Prospect theory shows that Korea was in the loss frame and pursued a risk seeking strategy. In other words, while accepting the excessive demands of the Chinese side, Korea expected only the lifting of the THAAD related retaliatory measures. 정책결정과정을 분석하기 위한 이론은 인간의 합리적 판단과 기대이익을 최대화하려는 심리에 바탕을 두었다. 그러나 인간의 합리성에 대한 전제가 실제로는 한계에 직면한다. 인간은 다양한 종류의 한계 때문에 합리적인 결정을 하지 못하기 때문이다. 전망이론은 인식론적 접근의 연장선에서 인간의 합리적 선택에 관한 행동들을 설명해 주고 있다. 전망이론(prospect theory)은 합리적 선택이론으로 해석하기 어려운 결정들을 합리적으로 설명해 주는 이론이다. 중요한 결정에 직면한 결정권자들은 자신만의 세계에서 세계를 인식한다. 이들은 불가능에서 가능성을 볼 수 있으며, 폐허 속에서도 번영의 비전을 볼 수 있다. 전망이론에서는 인간의 가치판단의 준거점이 현실과는 다르다는 점을 중시한다. 전망이론은 정책결정권자가 현실의 위치를 손실과 이익의 판단하는 기준선상의 어디에 놓은가에 초첨을 두고 있다. 상대적 이득(relative gains)의 문제가 신현실주의(neorealism)에 있어서 가장 중요한 정책결정의 척도가 되는 것처럼 전망이론(prospect theory)에서는 판단의 준거점(reference point)이 중요한 정책결정의 척도가 된다. 이렇게 하여 전망이론은 불합리한 선택을 한 것처럼 보이는 현상을 합리적으로 설명한다. 본 연구에서는 한국의 사드배치와 관련하여 중국의 부당한 경제보복을 당한 한국이 중국과의 협상과정에서 중국에 손해배상과 재발방지를 왜 요구할 수 없었는가 하는 점을 분석하였다. 전망이론에 따른 분석은 한국은 손실 영역에 있었으며, 위험추구 전략을 추구하게 되었다는 것을 보여준다. 즉, 중국측의 과도한 요구를 수용하면서도 THAAD 보복조치의 해제만을 기대하였다.

프로스펙트 이론과 속성별 제거모형을 중심으로 한 행동경제학에 대한 비판적 고찰

원지성 한국유통과학회 2013 유통과학연구 Vol.11 No.5

Purpose - For the past several decades, behavioral economics or behavioral decision theory has undergone rapid development. This study provides a critical review of the development of behavioral economics with a focus on what are deemed to be core theories in the field. Starting from the utility function proposed by Daniel Bernoulli in the 18th century, the development history of utility functions until the emergence of the prospect theory is thoroughly reviewed. Some of the experimental results violating the traditionally assumed utility function and supporting the prospect theory value function are summarized. The most representative principles of rational choice are transitivity, independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA), and regularity. The development of behavioral economics has been triggered by finding counter-examples to these principles. Some of the choice behaviors discussed in this study as counter-examples to the traditional theories of rational choice are the St. Petersburg paradox; the Allais paradox; gambling behavior; and the various context effects including the similarity effect, attraction effect, and the compromise effect. The Elimination-by-Aspects (EBA) model, which was proposed as an explanation for the similarity effect, is discussed in detail as well. Based on the literature review and further analysis, this study summarizes the relationship between the context effects, prospect theory, and EBA model. Research design, data, and methodology - This study provides an extensive literature review on several important theories in the field of behavioral decision theory and adds some critical comments to the theories and the relationships among them. This study first reviews the development of utility functions. Daniel Bernoulli introduced the concept of utility function to solve the St. Petersburg paradox. In the mid-20th century, Herbert Simon proposed the “satisficing” heuristic and presented a value function with a shape different from traditional utility functions. This study highlights the strengths and weaknesses of several utility functions proposed until the emergence of the prospect theory value function. Results - This study posits that prospect theory and EBA model are the two most important theories in the field of behavioral decision theory. They can explain various choice behaviors that traditional utility maximization analysis has been unable to. The application of these models to various fields is further increasing nowadays. This study explains how prospect theory and the EBA model can be used to explain the context effects. Conclusions - The traditional economic theory relies on a single variable called “utility” in explaining consumer choice. However, this study argues that, in investigating consumer choice, several other variables should also be considered. These are the similarity among alternatives, an alternative’s prototypicality within the category, the dominance relationship between alternatives, and the reference point in evaluating alternatives. Due to the development of behavioral economics, we are now closer to a more complete understanding of consumer choice behavior than in the past when we had only a single tool called utility.

제품가격에 대한 소비자 심적 계산에 미치는 조망이론과 정보통합이론의 영향 비교

김나실,양윤 한국소비자·광고심리학회 2018 한국심리학회지 소비자·광고 Vol.19 No.1

The purpose of this research is to find out whether the mental accounting principle of consumers follows the principle of prospect theory and information integration theory. The results of this research are as follows: Firstly, in the case of hedonic bundles, the preference for integration shown in the area of multiple gains supports the integration principle of the information integration theory. In the area of mixed gains, the results support the integration principle, which satisfies both the prospect theory and information integration theory. In the area of multiple losses, the results partially support the prospect theory’s integration principle, whereas the results for the area of mixed losses partially support segregation principle that satisfies both the prospect theory and information integration theory. Secondly, in the case of utilitarian bundles, the result of preference for integration partially shown in the area of multiple gains support the information integration theory’s integration principle. The area of mixed gains supports integration principle that satisfies both information integration and prospect theory. For the area of multiple losses, the results partially support the information integration theory’s principle of preference for segregation. Every condition was responded by indifference in the area of mixed losses. Therefore, the results do not support the segregation principle that satisfies both the prospect theory and information integration theory. 본 연구의 목적은 소비자가 제품가격을 처리하는 심적 계산의 원리가 조망이론과 정보통합이론 중 어느 이론의 원리를 따르는지 살펴보는 것이다. 본 실험에서는 가격변화유형(다중득/혼합득/다중실/혼합실)과 가격제시틀(절대틀/비율틀)에 따라 소비자 심적 계산의 원리가 어떻게 변화하는지를 살펴보기 위해 이원분산분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 첫째, 실용재 묶음제품의 경우, 다중득의 영역에서는 부분적으로 통합을 선호하여 정보통합이론의 통합원칙을 지지하였다. 혼합득의 영역에서는 조망이론과 정보통합이론 모두를 만족시키는 통합원칙을 지지하였다. 다중실의 영역에서는 정보통합이론의 분리선호의 원칙을 부분적으로 지지하였다. 혼합실의 영역에서는 모든 조건에서 무관심의 반응이 나타나서 조망이론과 정보통합이론 모두를 만족시키는 분리원칙을 지지하지 않는 결과가 나타났다. 둘째, 쾌락재 묶음제품의 경우, 다중득의 영역에서는 통합선호의 결과가 나타나서 정보통합이론의 통합원칙을 지지하였다. 혼합득의 영역에서는 조망이론과 정보통합이론 모두를 만족시키는 통합원칙을 지지하였다. 다중실의 영역에서는 조망이론의 통합원칙을 부분적으로 지지하였다. 혼합실의 영역에서는 조망이론과 정보통합이론 모두를 만족시키는 분리원칙을 부분적으로 지지하였다.

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 의사결정자의 합리적 선택과 효율잠식 - 전망이론은 기대효용이론보다 항상 비교열위한가?

민유주아나 ( Yujuana Min ),양오석 ( Oh-suk Yang ) 한국경제교육학회 2017 경제교육연구 Vol.24 No.2

선행연구들은 전망이론의 유용성이나 적용의 한계에 집중한 반면 본 연구는 전망이론 상에 나타난 행위자의 의사결정상의 효율성에 집중하여, 전망이론기저에 내재한 의식적 구조를 해당이론 내의 닫힌계 안에서 설명하도록 하였다. 이를 위하여 기대이익률과 효율잠식도의 개념을 도입하여 기대효용이론과 전망이론의 선택방식의 효용성 측면에서 차이를 검증하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 의사결정자가 전망이론 상의 선택을 취하는 이유는 최적해(最適解)를 발견하기 위한 비용은 최소화하고 최적해에 유사해지는 편익을 누리기 위함이다. 둘째, 행위자가 확률요소의 차이를 구분할 수 있는 요소 민감성은 전망이론 상의 선택이 기대효용이론의 선택의 효율과 유사해지도록 하는 기제로 작용한다. 셋째, 이는 의사결정자가 규모에 따라 확률요소를 달리 인식하는 기제는 각 요소 민감도의 필요성을 상쇄시켜줄 뿐만 아니라 요소 민감도가 패널티 상황과 프리미엄 상황에서 미치는 상이한 영향력을 상쇄시키는 역할을 수행한다. 본 연구는 확률요소의 민감성이 의사결정자에게 확률지배현상을 발현시켜 전망이론의 효율이 기대효용이론의 효율과 유사해지도록 하는 기제로 작용한다는 사실을 밝혀 학문적 의의를 갖는다. While previous studies have focused on applicability of the Prospect Theory, this study focuses on the efficiency of the actor's decision making in the Prospect Theory and explains the decision makers’ conscious structure inherent in the theory using Monte-Carlo simulation. For this purpose, we introduced the concept of expected profit margin and efficiency erosion, and verified the difference utility between the Expected Utility Theory and the Prospect Theory. The results are as follows. First, the decision maker takes the choice based on the Prospect Theory to minimize costs by finding the optimal solution and to enjoy the benefit conversing into the optimal solution. Second, probability sensitivity, in which the decision-maker can distinguish the difference of probability, serves as a mechanism for making expected outcomes by Prospect Theory similar to expected outcomes by the Expected Utility Theory. Third, the probability weigh function offsets the necessity of each factor sensitivity(probability sensitivity and price sensitivity), but also offsets influences of factor sensitivities which influencing differently on penalty circumstance and premium circumstance. This study provides academic contributions as discovering that decision-makers’ probability sensitivity induces probability dominance in the Prospect Theory and results in making the expected outcomes by Prospect Theory being similar to expected outcomes by the Expected Utility Theory.

Decision-Making of Determining the Start Time of Charging / Discharging of Electrical Vehicle Based on Prospect Theory

Lian Liu,Xiang Lyu,Chuanwen Jiang,Da Xie 대한전기학회 2014 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.9 No.3

The moment when Electrical Vehicle (EV) starts charging or discharging is one of the most important parameters in estimating the impact of EV load on the grid. In this paper, a decisionmaking problem of determining the start time of charging and discharging during allowed period is proposed and studied under the uncertainty of real-time price. Prospect theory is utilized in the decision-making problem of this paper for it describes a kind of decision making behaviors under uncertainty. The case study uses the parameters of Springo SGM7001EV and adopts the historical realtime locational marginal pricing (LMP) data of PJM market for scenario reduction. Prospect values are calculated for every possible start time in the allowed charging or discharging period. By comparing the calculated prospect values, the optimal decisions are obtained accordingly and the results are compared with those based on Expected Utility Theory. Results show that with different initial Stateof-Charge ( 0 SoC ) and different reference points, the optimal start time of charging can be the one between 12 a.m. to 3 a.m. and optimal discharging starts at 2 p.m. or 3p.m. Moreover, the decision results of Prospect Theory may differ from that of the Expected Utility Theory with the reference points changing.

Corresponding Steps and Further Approaches for North Korean Nuclear Solution through Application of Game Theory, Bargaining Theory, and Prospect Theory

이헌경 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2008 평화학연구 Vol.9 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to suggest corresponding steps and further approaches for dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons program through application of game theory, bargaining theory, and prospect theory. In pursuit of the Joint Statement, February agreement, and US-DPRK accord, some suggestions for North Korean nuclear denuclearization are as follows. First, North Korea has to allow verification measures to avoid a zero-sum game, as the US took the step of removing North Korea from the terrorism list. Second, North Korea has to fulfill its nuclear disablement, and the five nations of six-party talks should carry out economic aid to North Korea based on cooperation in economic, energy and humanitarian assistance in a non-zero sum game with the view of obtaining mutual gains. Third, North Korea should abandon all nuclear programs, and the participating nations in the six party-talks except the DPRK have to discuss, at an appropriate time, the subject of the provision of light water reactors to the DPRK for peaceful uses of nuclear energy rather than bombs, to reduce the possibility using of threats and brinkmanship towards each other. Fourth, there is a need to establish a security regime in the North for the purpose of guaranteeing North Korean security, inducing to forgo use of threats and violence, antagonism and confrontation, and instead engage in confidence-building measures. Fifth, the DPRK and the US have to take steps to normalize their relations to remove mistrust and hostility and promote reconciliation and cooperation. The purpose of this paper is to suggest corresponding steps and further approaches for dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons program through application of game theory, bargaining theory, and prospect theory. In pursuit of the Joint Statement, February agreement, and US-DPRK accord, some suggestions for North Korean nuclear denuclearization are as follows. First, North Korea has to allow verification measures to avoid a zero-sum game, as the US took the step of removing North Korea from the terrorism list. Second, North Korea has to fulfill its nuclear disablement, and the five nations of six-party talks should carry out economic aid to North Korea based on cooperation in economic, energy and humanitarian assistance in a non-zero sum game with the view of obtaining mutual gains. Third, North Korea should abandon all nuclear programs, and the participating nations in the six party-talks except the DPRK have to discuss, at an appropriate time, the subject of the provision of light water reactors to the DPRK for peaceful uses of nuclear energy rather than bombs, to reduce the possibility using of threats and brinkmanship towards each other. Fourth, there is a need to establish a security regime in the North for the purpose of guaranteeing North Korean security, inducing to forgo use of threats and violence, antagonism and confrontation, and instead engage in confidence-building measures. Fifth, the DPRK and the US have to take steps to normalize their relations to remove mistrust and hostility and promote reconciliation and cooperation.

전망이론과 민군관계: 무력사용을 중심으로

송승종(Seungjong Song) 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2021 한국군사학논집 Vol.77 No.1

The heinous Axe Murder crime on August 18 in 1976 at JSA (Joint Security Area) within DMZ (demilitarized zone) was the first murder committed by North Korea since the signing of Armistice Agreement in 1953. Whereas this incident was finalized by merely cutting the poplar tree, the U.S. is responding to the murder of its soldiers in Iran, Iraq, Somalia and elsewhere by swift and resolute retaliatory measures. From the perspective of the Civil-Military Relations (CMR), in the course of resolving the Axe Murder case, it appears that Henry Kissinger, then Secretary of State as well as the top diplomat, represented the civilian group in the absence of President Ford, while Richard G. Stilwell, the Commander of CINCUNC-CFC-USFK and active military officer, represented the military establishment during the time of Chief of Joint Chiefs of Staff’s absence. According to the conventional wisdom, within the context of CMR, the civilian elites are expected to play a role of suppressing the trigger-happy tendencies displayed by the military officers. Case in point would be the showdown between Prussia’s Otto von Bismarck and Helmut von Moltke. ‘Iron Chancellor’ Bismark tried his utmost in order to tamp down the zeal of the Prussian Army’s Chief of Staff, who demanded a victorious military parade through the downtown of Vienna right after the stunning victory at the Austro-Prussian War. The relation between Kissinger and Stilwell was totally opposite to that of Bismark-Moltke case. While Kissinger revealed that he was willing to take risks for retaliatory measures against North Koreans by showing hostilities toward them, Stilwell who was at the virtual end of more than four-decade of military career took pains to focus on myopic goal of cutting ‘the damn tree’ and on other damage control measures. Therefore, in one sense, whereas Kissinger played the role of military commander, Stilwell played the role of career diplomat. Prospect Theory provides us with an insightful clue as to the dramatic role-reversal between them. The purpose of this study is, by applying Prospect Theory, to enhance the understanding and explanatory power by means of examining the potential conflictual relations between the civil-military elites and other related issues revolving around ‘the use of force’ issue with the focus on the case study of Panmunjom Axe Murder Incident. Followed by the Introduction, the Chapter 2 will examine relevant basic concepts of Prospect Theory and explore mutually reinforcing relations between Prospect Theory and CMR. The Chapter 3 will take up the work of case study regarding the Axe Murder Incident in 1976. And finally the Chapter 4 will summarize main findings of the study and delve into the Prospect Theory’s limitations and other theoretical issues to be further refined.

전망이론과 일부부인에 대한 소고

박종렬,노상욱 한국법학회 2024 법학연구 Vol.93 No.-

본 연구의 목적은 인지과학의 한 분야인 전망이론을 바탕으로 다수범죄를 저지른 피고인이 왜 일부범죄에 대하여 부인하는지를 파악하고 사실인정에 있어 일부부인의 신빙성을 어느 정도로 고려할 것인가의 실무상의 문제를 해결하는데 기여하는 것이다. 연구방법은 전망이론의 일반론, 일부부인 경우의 수 문제의 특성, 오판가설의 제기 및 전제, 전망이론에 따른 일부부인의 설명, 전망이론과 오판이론의 구분실익, 전망이론의 실무상 의의를 설명한다. 전망이론이 실무상 갖는 진정한 의의는 형사재판에서 증거재판주의의 구현이 얼마나 중요한지를 보여준다는 점이다. 또한 피고인과의 커뮤니케이션에도 도움을 줄 가능성이 있다. 피고인의 준거점이 어디에 있는지에 따라 피고인의 태도가 달라질 수 있기 때문이다. 이는 특히 변론을 위하여 피고인과 좀 더 가까운 커뮤니케이션을 유지하여야 하는 변호인들에게 시사점을 줄 수 있다. The purpose of this research is to contribute to actual problem solving of how much to consider reliability of partial denial in fact finding by identifying why the accused who committed many crimes only deny partial crime. For the research method, it explains generalization of prospect theory, features of number of cases of partial denial, filing and premise of miscarries of judgment, description of partial denial based on prospect theory, advantages and disadvantages of prospect theory and theory of miscarries, and practical meaning of prospect theory. The practical meaning of prospect theory is that how it is important to have evidential justice in criminal trial. Also, it may help communicating with the accused. Based on the standing point of the accused, one’s attitude may change. This deliver implications to the attorney who needs to have closer communication with the accused for the defense.

정책결정에서의 전망이론과 8・3 사채동결 조치:위험 상황에서의 결정에 대한 분석

김준형 한국행정사학회 2023 韓國行政史學誌 Vol.59 No.-

이 연구의 목적은 전망이론을 통해 8・3 사채동결 조치(이하 8・3 조치)를 분석함으로써, 발전국가론과 합리 모형을 비롯한 여타의 정책결정이론에 의해 설명되기 어려운 비일관적이고 위험스러운 고도성장기 한국의 정책결정 사례들을 더욱 타당하게 이해하는 것이다. 구체적으로, 이 연구는 1970년대 초반 고리사채로 인해 초래된 기업들의 대규모 부도 위기를 해결하기 위한 방안으로서 제시되었던 대안들(시장논리, 대환대출, 사채동결)의 위험성을 평가하고, 박정희 전 대통령(이하 박정희)의 영역에 인식(이득의 영역 혹은 손실의 영역)을 측정하고, 영역에 대한 인식으로부터 표출된 위험 성향과 이에 따라 선택된 대안을 파악하고, 선택된 대안의 단기적・장기적 결과를 제시함으로써, 전망이론의 관점에서 8・3 조치를 분석한다. 연구 결과에 따르면, 박정희는 1970년대 초반 자신의 영역을 커다란 손실로 인식하고 있었다. 따라서, 그는 고리사채로 인해 초래된 기업들의 대규모 부도 위기를 해결하기 위한 대안들 중에서 사채동결이 가장 높은 위험성을 지니고 있는 대안이었음에도 불구하고 사채동결을 선택하였다. 바꾸어 말하면, 그는 기업 채무상황 악화 및 이에 따른 경제성장 저하라는 손실을 기피하기 위하여 8・3 조치가 초래할 수 있는 커다란 위험을 수용하였다. 이러한 분석 결과를 바탕으로, 이 연구는 여타의 정책결정이론을 통한 8・3 조치 분석의 한계와 전망이론을 통한 8・3 조치 분석의 유용성 그리고 정책연구에 가지는 의의를 논의한다. The purpose of this study is to explore the possibility of prospect theory as effective theoretical resource to understand the essence of policy-making by analyzing 8・3 loan freeze measure (8・3 measure) from the perspective of prospect theory. Specifically, this study analyzed 8・3 measure from the perspective of prospect theory by evaluating riskiness of the alternatives suggested for solving large-scale business bankruptcy crisis caused by private loan with high interest rate, measuring recognition of domain (domain of gain or domain of loss) by former President Chung-hee Park (former President Park), and illustrating short-term and long-term results of the alternative selected. According to the research findings, former President Park located himself in a domain of loss in the first 1970s. Accordingly, he selected the loan freeze measure despite the fact that it was the most risky alternative among the alternatives to solve the large-scale business bankruptcy crisis caused by private loan with high interest rate. Put it differently, he accepted great risks that 8・3 measure could bring about in order to avoid the loss of deterioration in businesses’ debt situation and resultant decrease in economic growth. These research findings suggest that it is possible for prospect theory to be used as an effective analytical tool for a series of major policymaking cases observed in the rapid economic growth process in Korea.

보수적 회계처리가 이익지속성과 자본비용에 미치는 영향

전홍준,양동훈,조광희 한국경영학회 2016 한국경영학회 통합학술발표논문집 Vol.2016 No.8

보수적 회계처리는 회계정보에 있어서 가장 특징적인 부분이다. 실무적으로 보수적 회계처리는 지속되어 왔으며, 과거에는 회계의 개념체계에서 일정한 역할을 담당하여 왔다. 그러나 공정가치 회계를 중심으로 한 현대의 회계기준은 보수적 회계처리가 비대칭적인 회계처리이며 비용의 조기인식으로 인해 이익의 지속성과 가치관련성을 해친다는 연구결과를 바탕으로 회계의 질적속성에서 보수주의를 제외하고 있다. 그러나 공정가치 회계가 강조된 이후에도 지속적으로 보수적 회계처리는 이루어지고 있으며, 이에 따라 보수적 회계처리의 의미를 이익의 질과 관련하여 재조명해 볼 필요성이 존재한다. 특히 보수주의는 위험을 회피하려는 현상과 밀접한 관계를 가지고 있는 것으로 보인다. 이에 본 연구는 위험회피현상과 관련이 있는 행동경제학 이론인 Prospect 이론의 관점에서 보수주의와 이익의 질과의 관계를 실증하였다. Prospect 이론은 판단기준점(reference point)을 중심으로 판단기준점 보다 이득인 상황은 위험회피적(risk-averse)으로 그리고 손해인 상황은 위험추구적(risk-seeking)이라고 주장하고 있는데, 본 연구에서는 전체 표본을 위험회피성을 기준으로 두 집단으로 나누어 보수주의와 이익지속성 그리고 자기자본비용과의 관계를 실증하였다. 실증결과 보수주의는 이익의 지속성을 낮추지만, 자기자본비용은 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 두집단을 나누어 본 결과 위험회피적인 이득상황에서는 보수주의가 이익지속성을 증가시키며, 자기자본비용을 추가적으로 낮아지게 한다는 결과를 얻었다. 여기서 자기자본비용의 추가적 하락은 정보비대칭의 차이에서 기인하는 것임을 관찰할 수 있었다. 종합하면, 보수주의는 모든 기업이 아닌 이득상황 기업의 이익지속성을 증가시키고 자기자본비용을 추가적으로 낮추는 역할을 한다고 해석할 수 있다. 본 연구는 보수적 회계처리가 이익의 질을 높이는데 기여한다는 결과를 제공함으로써 기존의 연구결과와 다르며, 보수주의를 연구하는데 있어서 Prospect 이론의 판단기준점을 기준으로 한 상황의 구분이 중요한 역할을 할 수 있다는 새로운 시각을 제공하였다는데 공헌점이 있다. Accounting conservatism is one of the most fundamental features of accounting information. While there is little question as to conservatism’s existence, there is a debate among researchers and standard setters as to how costly or beneficial conservatism is to financial statement users. The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) does not include conservatism as one of the qualitative characteristics of financial reporting in its conceptual framework because it believes that conservatism biases accounting information and compromises neutrality. But conservative accounting is still being observed even after the adoption of IFRS. At this point, the usefulness of accounting conservatism needs to be reviewed. The prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky(1979) provides a behavioral-based alternative to the rational decision theory. It shows the investor"s utility for gains is assumed to exhibit the risk-averse behavior while the utility for losses is assumed to exhibit risk-taking behavior. The purpose of this study examine the effect of accounting conservatism on earnings persistence and cost of equity capital in terms of prospect theory. For this purpose, research sample was divided into two groups, gain group(risk-averse) and loss group(risk-seeking). I find that fims with more conservative accounting generate more persistent earnings than firms with less conservative accounting in the case of gain group. I also find a significant negative relation between conditional conservatism and cost of equity capital. Even in the gain group conditional conservatism decreases cost of equity capital additionally. Test shows the cause of declining cost of equity capital comes from the difference of information asymmetry between gain and loss group. This study contributes to provide a perspective that conservative accounting improve the quality of earnings like earnings persistence and cost of capital and reference point can play an important role in studying the relation between accounting conservatism and other earnings quality measures.