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강선민(Sun Min Kang),황인태(In Tae Hwang),Shun Ji Jin 한국경영학회 2013 經營學硏究 Vol.42 No.1
In 2011, many mutual savings banks suspended their operations. The suspension of mutual savings banks was a critical decision that did serious damage to the national economy and various interested parties, such as depositors. The BIS capital ratio divides the capital of a savings bank into risk-weighted assets, and if the ration of a savings bank is more than 8%, the bank is classed as a highly successful savings bank. However, the BIS capital ratio for many suspended savings banks in the previous year was higher than 8%. The purpose of this study is to analyze whether the BIS capital ratio, which measures the soundness of savings banks, is a suitable indicator for predicting their failure. Moreover, the study examines whether the debt ratio used for predicting corporate bankruptcy can be used as an indicator for predicting the failure of savings banks, comparing it with the BIS capital ratio. This study investigates 36 savings banks that suspended their operations from 2004 to 2012, conducting a logit analysis for predicting failure using 73 savings banks as the paired sample from among the 82 that were in full operation. The results of the study are as follows. The failure prediction model for the BIS capital ratio was only significant in the previous year before the savings banks suspended their operations. However, the debt ratio was statistically significant over two-year periods. The failure prediction information must be timely, so that it helps catch signs of failure at an early stage, as well as accurate. Thus, using the debt ratio with the BIS capital ratio is suitable for predicting the failure of savings banks. Financial regulators and investors need to consider the debt ratio, as well as the BIS capital ratio, when they predict and measure the suspension of savings banks. This study suggests, according to the results of empirical study, that the debt ratio is a valid variable for catching signs of potential suspension at an early stage. Moreover, the results from this study have universality for all savings banks, as the study considered all savings banks and included almost all the savings banks in the sample. Thus, I expect that the study will help financial regulators and other interested parties respond to the possible failure of savings banks at an early stage, and thus contribute to minimizing the social costs of suspension.
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레스토랑의 선택속성에 관한 비교연구 -선택형 컨조인트와 전통적 컨조인트 비교를 중심으로-
안성식 ( Sung Sik Ahn ),서상윤 ( Sang Yun Seo ),양주환 ( Ju Hwan Yang ) 한국식품유통학회 2011 食品流通硏究 Vol.28 No.2
In this study, repeated choice experiment in choice based conjoint analysis was performed to estimate the utility value of individual customers of restaurant. To evaluate the effectiveness of choice based conjoint, the result of estimated utility value was compared with traditional conjoint result. In particular when the alternative is presented to estimate the utility of consumer in choice based conjoint, a set number of cards is very important. We investigate how the predictive accuracy vary while using the a set of three, four, five, six card. The results before refining the respondents using Kendall`s tau values, the accuracy of predictions of a choice-based conjoint analysis and the traditional method was not statistically significantly different. However, the results of a five card set choice based conjoint after refining the respondents using Kendall`s tau values, show higher prediction accuracy than traditional conjoint, and the difference is statistically significant. Based on these results, we expect to use choice-based conjoint analysis as an alternative of traditional conjoint.
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