차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조사업 경제적 타당성 분석: 비용효과 분석을 중심으로

정재호 ( Jung Jae Ho ),정영선 ( Jung Young Sun ) 배재대학교 한국-시베리아센터 2021 한국시베리아연구 Vol.25 No.1

북극은 지구 기후시스템을 모두 갖춘 기후변화 연구의 중심지이자, 미래자원의 보고 및 경제발전의 통로로서 중요성이 증가하고 있다. 동시에 북극의 연구수요도 급증하고 있음에 따라 차세대 쇄빙연구선의 건조 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 차세대 쇄빙연구선의 건조에 대한 경제적 타당성을 검토하고자 한다. 국가연구개발사업의 경제성 분석은 예비타당성조사 대상 사업의 국민경제적 파급효과와 투자 적합성을 분석하는 핵심적 조사과정으로 비용-편익분석(Cost-Benefit Analysis)을 기본적인 방법론으로 채택하여 분석한다. 하지만 순수 R&D 사업과 기타 재정사업 등 비용-편익 분석이 적합하지 않다고 판단되는 사업의 경우, 비용-효과분석(Cost-Effectiveness Analysis)을 수행한다. 비용효과분석은 ‘고정효과접근법(Fixed effectiveness approach)’과 ‘고정비용접근법(Fixed budget approach)’으로 구분되며 동 연구에서는 동일 효과 대비 비용을 비교하는 고정효과접근법을 활용하였다. 경제성 분석을 위해 ‘차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조(원안)’를 기준으로 3가지의 대안(대안 1. 쇄빙연구선 임차 / 대안 2. 외국 내빙연구선 및 쇄빙선 임차 / 대안 3. 쇄빙 화물선 건조, 아라온 개조 및 외국 쇄빙연구선 임차)을 설정하였다. 또한 원안 기준 대안의 효과를 동일하게 보정하기 위해 ‘연구 항해일 수 확대’와 ‘운항예비일 확보’를 활용하였다. 경제성 분석 결과, 총비용(현가)은 차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조(원안)가 3가지 대안 대비 약 111.7 ~ 2,699.5억 원 낮게 투입되어 경제적으로 타당성이 입증 되었다. 또한 동 연구는 대안의 실현 가능성과 운영상의 효율성을 고려할 때, 차세대 쇄빙연구선 건조가 가장 합리적인 방안임을 주장한다. 본 연구는 현재 기획 중인 사업에 대한 경제적 타당성을 분석하였다는 점에서 시의적절한 연구이자, 비용-편익분석을 대체하여 비용-효과분석을 수행하였다는 점에서 이론적으로 기여한다. 다만 아직 추진이 확정되지 않은 사업임에 따라 일부 자료 및 분석과정을 비공개로 진행하였다. 차세대 쇄빙연구선의 건조 여부가 확정되지 않았지만, 경제성 측면에서의 타당성은 입증된 만큼 연구수요 등의 기술 및 정책적 타당성이 입증되어 사업 추진이 조속히 이루어 짐에 따라 극지해역 과학플랫폼 확보, 과학외교 기반 국가 위상 제고, 북극항로 개척 및 안전운항, 미래 에너지자원 정보획득의 효과를 창출하기를 기대한다. North Pole increases importance because of central of climate change research that gear up climate system of earth, future resource and way of economic growth. Because North Pole increases importance, Research demand of North Pole is more increase and necessity of Next-generation IBRV(Ice Breaker Research Vessel) building is to come near. This study to identify economic cogency for Next-generation IBRV building through research demand of North Pole and takes best alternative through economic analysis to comparing Next-generation IBRV building block and others. Economic analysis of national R&D business is a core investigation process for economic ripple effect and investment satisfaction and Cost-Benefit Analysis is a standard process, but Cost-Effectiveness Analysis is suitable for pure R&D business and others. The analysis method is classified into two categories such as Fixed effectiveness approach and Fixed budget approach, the latter approach is used in this study. For economic analysis, three alternatives were established based on "the construction of Next-generation IBRV" (Alternative 1. Leasing of foreign IBRV / Alternative 2. Leasing of foreign icebreakers and RV / Alternative 3. Leasing of icebreakers, Araon modification and foreign IBRV). In addition, ‘expanding the number of days of research navigation’ and ‘securing the days of operation’ were utilized to equally correct the effectiveness of the original reference alternative. Resulting analysis of total cost to fixed effect model of cost effect analysis is that alternative1 low 11~27 billion won comparing other alternatives. In addition, considering the feasibility of alternatives and operational efficiency, it is suggested that the construction of Next-generation IBRV is the most reasonable measure. This study is timely in that it analyzes the economic feasibility of the project currently being pursued, and theoretically contributes to the use of cost-effectiveness analysis as an alternative to cost-benefit analysis. However, since the project has not yet been finalized, some data and analysis processes have been carried out behind closed doors. Although the construction of the Next-generation IBRV has yet to be confirmed, it is hoped that the feasibility of research demand and other projects will be proved as soon as possible as the feasibility of the Next-generation IBRV has been proven. And it will create the effects such as securing a science platform in the polar sea, enhancing the national status based on science and diplomacy, pioneering and safe operation of the Arctic route, and obtaining information on future energy resources.

원전기자재 설계와 관련된 내진해석

이우형(Woo Hyung Lee),조종래(Jong Rae Cho),노민식(Min Sik Roh),류정형(Jeong Hyung Ryu) 대한기계학회 2011 大韓機械學會論文集A Vol.35 No.3

본 논문에서는 원자력 발전소 폴라 크레인(polar crane)의 설계를 위해 유한요소법을 통한 내진해석을 수행하였다. 모드 해석(modal analysis)을 통하여 폴라 크레인의 고유진동수와 진동형상을 파악하고 응답스펙트럼(response spectrum)을 통해 폴라 크레인의 내진 안전성을 평가하였다. 그리고 액체저장탱크에 대한 내진해석을 유한요소법을 이용하여 수행하였는데, 탱크가 요동시에 액체가 탱크 외벽에 가하는 힘을 고려한 슬로싱해석과 안전정지지진 하중 조건에서의 해석을 수행하였다. 본 논문에서 유한요소해석 상용코드인 ANSYS를 이용하여 내진해석에 필요한 해석기법과 과정 등을 설계 시에 활용할 수 있도록 제안하였다. We use the finite element method to analyze the seismic design of a liquid storage tank for a polar crane at a nuclear power plant. We obtained the natural frequency and vibration modes by modal analysis, and we evaluated the seismic stability by response spectrum analysis. Furthermore, the seismic analysis of the tank was accomplished by analyzing not only the forces applied to the wall by the sloshing of the liquid, but also the safe-shutdown earthquake condition for the tank. We propose a seismic-design process and a seismic-analysis method for liquid storage tanks based on the commercial finite element analysis program, ANSYS.

광대역유도분극 이상 자료의 해석을 위한 새로운 등가회로 모델

신승욱 ( Seung Wook Shin ),박삼규 ( Samg Yu Park ),신동복 ( Dong Bok Shin ) 한국지구물리·물리탐사학회 2014 지구물리와 물리탐사 Vol.17 No.4

Spectral induced polarization (SIP) is a useful technique, which uses electrochemical properties, for explorationof metallic sulfide minerals. Equivalent circuit analysis is commonly conducted to calculate IP parameters from SIP data. An equivalent circuit model, which indicates the SIP response of rock, has a non-uniqueness problem. For this reason,it is very important to select the proper model for accurate analysis. Thus, this study focused on suggesting a new model,which suitable for the analysis of an anomalous SIP response, such as ore. A suitability of the new model was verifiedby comparing it with the existing Dias model and Cole-Cole models. Analysis errors were represented as a normalizedroot mean square error (NRMSE). The analysis result using the Dias model was the NRMSE of 10.50% and was theNRMSE using the Cole-Cole model of 17.03%. Howerver, because the NRMSE of the new model is 0.87%, it isconsidered that the new model is more useful for analyzing the anomalous SIP data than other models.

한국사회의 매체 정파성과 성소수자 담론 텍스트 분석

강신재,이윤석,조화순 한국정보사회학회 2019 정보사회와 미디어 Vol.20 No.2

In a recent development of unprecedented active public debate and ideational division over sexual minority issue in South Korea, this study investigates media partisanship as a major intensifying factor in current ideational bifurcation. This research attempts to examine Korean newspaper coverage behavior on the sexual minority by analyzing 3,531 articles and opinion pieces published in four leading Korean newspapers with the keywords of 'sexual minority' and ‘queer festival’ respectively. Out of four newspapers, Chosun Ilbo and DongA Ilbo are considered conservative while Hankyoreh and Kyunghyang Shinmun are considered liberal. While existing literatures have focused on the relationship between media partisanship and security, economy, and ideology, this study explores connection between media partisanship and sexual minority issues. Through an examination of biased coverages on the sexual minority in South Korean newspapers, this research implies that partisanship coverages had a strong influence on the formation of contemporary Korean public opinion on sexual minorities. Due to recent divergence of public opinion along the ideological lines despite long invisibility of sexual minorities in South Korean society, it is conjectured that media has played a divisive and polarizing role in the opinion formation of Korean society. In order to examine the media partisanship, automated text analysis was adopted to reduce subjective bias. Data were collected through self-created Python code by web crawling while topic modeling, frequency, and degree centrality analysis were used for analysis. The results are as follow. First, the general trend of selection and exclusion was observed within similar ideologies of media companies through a salient difference in the number of covered articles. Additionally, we found that liberal media houses were more committed to reporting sexual minority issues. The number of articles published were differed between conservative and liberal newspapers, from 2,449 to 673 articles on sexual minority issue while 333 to 76 articles concerning queer festival. Second, conservative media was more likely to focus on information conveyance of the issue, whereas liberal media tend to emphasize human rights amelioration and institutional reformation for the problems existing in Korean society. Through the keyword analysis, conservatives were more likely to invoke terms related to locations and proper nouns (i.e. ‘Seoul’, ‘Seoul Plaza’, ‘Police’) while liberals displayed higher tendency to use terms related to human rights (i.e. ‘Society’. ‘Human Being’, and ‘Hatred’). Third, topic modeling results indicated liberal media’s emphasis on sexual minority rights while conservative’s relative indifference toward the issue. On the other hand, conservatives were found to allocate greater share on descriptive and episodic articles than liberals. It is also found that Liberal media tend to associate domestic politics and social movements comparatively in explaining sexual minority issues. The result of media polarization toward sexual minority issue indicates the possibility of further ideological polarization in South Korean society. How minorities are projected in the public sphere is imperative to how news depicts the contents as these coverages will be used as a catalyst for public discourse. Considering minorities’ vulnerability on media bias and South Korea’s preexisting media environment, the research result suggests that the growing influence of media on the issue of sexual minorities will have an important impact on the discourse of sexual minorities in Korean society. This research holds its value in uncovering media polarization of the burgeoning cleavage issue through quantitative text mining analysis. 본 연구는 한국사회에서 새로운 갈등 요인으로 부상하고 있는 성소수자 이슈에 대해 신문 매체들의 보도 행태가 어떻게 나타나는지 분석하였다. 성소수자, 퀴어축제 이슈에 대해 보수신문으로 분류되는 조선일보와 동아일보, 진보신문으로 분류되는 한겨레와 경향신문의 기사를 웹 크롤링을 통해 수집하고, 수집된 내용들을 토픽 모델링과 단어 빈도 및 연결중심성 분석을 통해 보도의 정파성이 어떻게 나타나고 있는지 살펴보았다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 신문의 이념성향에 따라 두 이슈에 대한 기사 수의 현저한 차이가 나타나 신문사들이 선택과 배제의 메커니즘을 활용하고 있다는 점을 확인하였다. 둘째, 보수성향의 신문들은 성소수자 이슈와 관련된 사건이나 정보의 전달에 초점을 맞춘 반면, 진보성향의 신문들은 인권적·제도적 차원에서 성소수자들과 관련된 문제 해결에 초점을 맞추어 보도했다. 이러한 결과는 미디어의 정파성이 기존의 성소수자 이슈에 대한 이념적 양극화를 더욱 촉진시킬 수 있다는 가능성을 보여준다. 본 연구는 양적 텍스트 분석 방법을 활용하여 성소수자 이슈에 대한 매체의 정파성을 규명해냈다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

Studying ideological polarization in the U.S. congress using relative distribution method

Jae Mook Lee 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2013 동서연구 Vol.25 No.1

This study examines the pattern of growing ideological polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives using relative distribution method, a nonparametric tool designed for distributional analysis. Adopting DW-NOMINATE scores as measures of members’ ideological orientation in the House, this study suggests that elected officials are ideologically more polarized in later eras in comparison with the 1960s and partisan conflict thus became more intensified in the Congresses of 1990s and 2000s. One of the strengths that this article maintains is this study decomposes ideological polarization into shape change and location shift different from the existing literature. By doing do, the findings indicate that while the great majority of congressmen shift their ideological positions toward one extreme compared to the previous congress, the opposite tail of the distribution also gains some density at the same time. Indeed, ideological polarization in terms of changes in distributional shape occurred simultaneously while the entire ideological distribution of the House members oscillated between the leftward and rightward shifts

Grammatical and Pragmatic Aspects of Polarity in Arabic Seditious Utterances

Reda Ali Hassan Mahmoud 세종대학교 언어연구소 2016 Journal of Universal Language Vol.17 No.2

This study analyzes various grammatical and pragmatic aspects of polarity in Arabic seditious utterances. Arabic Seditious Utterances (ASUs) are a result of the general atmosphere of incitement and discontent against lawful authorities which prevails before and after the revolution. ASUs feature the use of both negative polarity aspects to refute a number of oppressive and unjust actions of political and administrative authorities and other positive polarity aspects to affirm the allegements and demands of the claimants. Such negative and positive distinction in ASUs is represented grammatically (syntactically, lexically, and semantically) in positive and negative polarity items. They are also represented pragmatically in context-sensitive aspects within these utterances. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of seditious utterances, the various aspects of positive and negative syntactic, lexical and semantic polarity items, their scalar ways of representations in addition to other creative aspects of pragmatic-sensitive expressions of polarity. An eclectic approach is designed to suite the analysis of the scalar and multi-aspect nature of grammatical as well as pragmatic data which has been collected within a span of three years of national unrest. The analysis of the examples of ASUs shows that negative and positive polarity distinction rise above the grammatical component to other entailed and implicated pragmatic aspects. The analysis of ASUs also explains the inventive ways of pragmatic aspects which are used to understate or accentuate the control of grammatical and lexical components of polarity according to their various contexts.

Crystal Structure and Polarization Properties of Ferroelectric Bi4−xLaxTi3O12 Single Crystals

Masaru Miyayama,Yuji Noguchi,Masayuki Soga 한국물리학회 2009 THE JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN PHYSICAL SOCIETY Vol.55 No.2

Single crystals of ferroelectric Bi4Ti3O12 (BiT) and La-substituted Bi4Ti3O12 (BLT) were grown by using a self-flux method, and the effects of La substitution on the crystal structure, the polarization properties, and the domain structure were investigated. BLT crystals showed a smaller remanent polarization along the a axis compared with BiT, which is in good qualitative agreement with the spontaneous polarization calculated from the structural data determined from the neutron diffraction analysis. La substitution resulted in a decrease in the domain width of 90 degree domains, which is attributed in part to the smaller structural distortion a/b for BLT. Single crystals of ferroelectric Bi4Ti3O12 (BiT) and La-substituted Bi4Ti3O12 (BLT) were grown by using a self-flux method, and the effects of La substitution on the crystal structure, the polarization properties, and the domain structure were investigated. BLT crystals showed a smaller remanent polarization along the a axis compared with BiT, which is in good qualitative agreement with the spontaneous polarization calculated from the structural data determined from the neutron diffraction analysis. La substitution resulted in a decrease in the domain width of 90 degree domains, which is attributed in part to the smaller structural distortion a/b for BLT.

주관적 웰빙 상태 측정을 위한 비정형 데이터의 상황기반 긍부정성 분석 방법

최석재(Sukjae Choi),송영은(Yeongeun Song),권오병(Ohbyung Kwon) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2016 지능정보연구 Vol.22 No.1

Measuring an individual’s subjective wellbeing in an accurate, unobtrusive, and cost-effective manner is a core success factor of the wellbeing support system, which is a type of medical IT service. However, measurements with a self-report questionnaire and wearable sensors are cost-intensive and obtrusive when the wellbeing support system should be running in real-time, despite being very accurate. Recently, reasoning the state of subjective wellbeing with conventional sentiment analysis and unstructured data has been proposed as an alternative to resolve the drawbacks of the self-report questionnaire and wearable sensors. However, this approach does not consider contextual polarity, which results in lower measurement accuracy. Moreover, there is no sentimental word net or ontology for the subjective wellbeing area. Hence, this paper proposes a method to extract keywords and their contextual polarity representing the subjective wellbeing state from the unstructured text in online websites in order to improve the reasoning accuracy of the sentiment analysis. The proposed method is as follows. First, a set of general sentimental words is proposed. SentiWordNet was adopted; this is the most widely used dictionary and contains about 100,000 words such as nouns, verbs, adjectives, and adverbs with polarities from -1.0 (extremely negative) to 1.0 (extremely positive). Second, corpora on subjective wellbeing (SWB corpora) were obtained by crawling online text. A survey was conducted to prepare a learning dataset that includes an individual’s opinion and the level of self-report wellness, such as stress and depression. The participants were asked to respond with their feelings about online news on two topics. Next, three data sources were extracted from the SWB corpora: demographic information, psychographic information, and the structural characteristics of the text (e.g., the number of words used in the text, simple statistics on the special characters used). These were considered to adjust the level of a specific SWB. Finally, a set of reasoning rules was generated for each wellbeing factor to estimate the SWB of an individual based on the text written by the individual. The experimental results suggested that using contextual polarity for each SWB factor (e.g., stress, depression) significantly improved the estimation accuracy compared to conventional sentiment analysis methods incorporating SentiWordNet. Even though literature is available on Korean sentiment analysis, such studies only used only a limited set of sentimental words. Due to the small number of words, many sentences are overlooked and ignored when estimating the level of sentiment. However, the proposed method can identify multiple sentiment-neutral words as sentiment words in the context of a specific SWB factor. The results also suggest that a specific type of senti-word dictionary containing contextual polarity needs to be constructed along with a dictionary based on common sense such as SenticNet. These efforts will enrich and enlarge the application area of sentic computing. The study is helpful to practitioners and managers of wellness services in that a couple of characteristics of unstructured text have been identified for improving SWB. Consistent with the literature, the results showed that the gender and age affect the SWB state when the individual is exposed to an identical queue from the online text. In addition, the length of the textual response and usage pattern of special characters were found to indicate the individual’s SWB. These imply that better SWB measurement should involve collecting the textual structure and the individual’s demographic conditions. In the future, the proposed method should be improved by automated identification of the contextual polarity in order to enlarge the vocabulary in a cost-effective manner.

소셜미디어에서의 여론 형성기제에 관한 탐색적 연구 - 20대 대선 ‘여성가족부 폐지’ 빅데이터 분석

감현주,한혜경 부산울산경남언론학회 2023 지역과 커뮤니케이션 Vol.27 No.3

This study sought to discuss the reality of individual opinion expression and public opinion polarization by applying Spiral of Silence Theory to the current social media environment, and to examine how the pattern appears through big data analysis. To this end, social media such as communities, Twitter(current "X"), blogs, and Instagram conducted frequency analysis, association analysis, and sentiment analysis under the keyword "abolition of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family." As a result, it was found that in today's social media environment, which pursues homogeneous orientation, recommended algorithms, and functions as a reference group, individual opinions and emotions become more active and solid, and over time, public opinion develops into confrontation and conflict. In particular, the use of emotional and negative words increased rapidly after the election was confirmed, and the affective polarization phenomenon was confirmed, in which antipathy between the two camps was maximized. It was observed that individuals' political opinion expression and the polarization of public opinion appeared more clearly on closed platforms than on open platforms, and that a minority of strong opinions involved in political issues heightened emotions in polarized situations through retweets. This study is an exploratory study to incorporate the public opinion-forming mechanism of silence into the actual context of social media today through big data analysis, and aims to contribute to enhancing the value of empirical research and expanding theoretical discussions.

Ricean Bias Correction in Linear Polarization Observation

손봉원 한국우주과학회 2011 Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences Vol.28 No.4

I developed an enhanced correction method for Ricean bias which occurs in linear polarization measurement. Two known methods for Ricean bias correction are reviewed. In low signal-to-noise area, the method based on the mode of the equation gives better representation of the fractional polarization. But a caution should be given that the accurate estimation of noise level, i.e. σ of the polarized flux, is important. The maximum likelihood method is better choice for high signal-to-noise area. I suggest a hybrid method which uses the mode of the equation at the low signal-to-noise area and takes the maximum likelihood method at the high signal-to-noise area. A modified correction coefficient for the mode solution is proposed. The impact on the depolarization measure analysis is discussed.