North Korea’s Current Sociopolitical Situation and Its Some Implications

박균열 국제인문사회연구학회 2022 Studies on Humanities and Social Sciences (SHSC) Vol.4 No.2

North Korea’s Current Sociopolitical Situation and Its Some Implications* Gyunyeol Park** Abstract: This study aims to examine the recent socio-political situation of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) and propose some ways to help it become a normal state in the international community. North Korea is a dual existence that has to make peace while confronting the Republic of Korea (South Korea) militarily. Peace on the Korean Peninsula cannot be expected unless North Korea continues to carry out military provocations on the Korean Peninsula and gives up its anti-peaceful maneuvers. Liberal countries, including the Republic of Korea, are concerned about North Korea’s terrorism. South Korea and its free allies expect North Korea to change from a rogue state to a normal state. The situation in North Korea is dire. However, this difficult reality was brought on by North Korea itself. Even from now on, if North Korea manages its state normally and promotes policies that meet the standards of the international community, it will always be able to become an international partner. South Korea welcomes North Korea’s positive efforts. North Korea should make such efforts, but people around the world, including South Korea, should not think of North Korea’s provocative behavior as its own violence, but should think about what is the reason for raising it while provoking it. That is the perception based on rational reasoning about North Korea. Key Words: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea), the Republic of Korea (South Korea) socio-political situation, normal state, rogue state, Korean Peninsula, anti-peaceful maneuvers □ Received: Dec. 21, 2022, Revised: Dec. 30, 2022, Accepted: Dec. 30, 2022 * This paper was made through developing the author’s past short column. Park, Gyun Yeol, “Understanding North Korea’s Sociopolitical Structure”, Global NK Zoom & Connect, East Asia Institute, November, 2022. ** Professor, Gyeongsang National Univ., Email: pgy556@daum.net North Korea’s Current Sociopolitical Situation and Its Some Implications* Gyunyeol Park** Abstract: This study aims to examine the recent socio-political situation of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) and propose some ways to help it become a normal state in the international community. North Korea is a dual existence that has to make peace while confronting the Republic of Korea (South Korea) militarily. Peace on the Korean Peninsula cannot be expected unless North Korea continues to carry out military provocations on the Korean Peninsula and gives up its anti-peaceful maneuvers. Liberal countries, including the Republic of Korea, are concerned about North Korea’s terrorism. South Korea and its free allies expect North Korea to change from a rogue state to a normal state. The situation in North Korea is dire. However, this difficult reality was brought on by North Korea itself. Even from now on, if North Korea manages its state normally and promotes policies that meet the standards of the international community, it will always be able to become an international partner. South Korea welcomes North Korea’s positive efforts. North Korea should make such efforts, but people around the world, including South Korea, should not think of North Korea’s provocative behavior as its own violence, but should think about what is the reason for raising it while provoking it. That is the perception based on rational reasoning about North Korea. Key Words: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea), the Republic of Korea (South Korea) socio-political situation, normal state, rogue state, Korean Peninsula, anti-peaceful maneuvers □ Received: Dec. 21, 2022, Revised: Dec. 30, 2022, Accepted: Dec. 30, 2022 * This paper was made through developing the author’s past short column. Park, Gyun Yeol, “Understanding North Korea’s Sociopolitical Structure”, Global NK Zoom & Connect, East Asia Institute, November, 2022. ** Professor, Gyeongsang National Univ., Email: pgy556@daum.net

Новая нормальность в АТР: Пекин между Москвой и Вашингтоном

Sergey A. Lukonin,제성훈 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2023 분석과 대안 Vol.7 No.1

For the main countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the United States, China and Russia, a situation of “new normality” is emerging. Moreover, for each of the countries, this “new normality” has its own meaning. For the United States, this is an aggravation of the military confrontation with China in the Taiwan Strait. For China, this is an increase in the degree of rivalry with the United States and a slowdown in the pace of economic development with a very high probability of their decline in the future. For Russia, this is an almost complete curtailment of relations with the United States against the background of a special military operation and imposed sanctions. These nuances, in addition to the results of the 20th CPC Congress, will determine the main trends in Sino-American and Sino-Russian relations. It seems that China's attitude towards Russia will not change against the background of the Ukrainian crisis. Beijing will maintain a position of “benevolent neutrality” towards Moscow. At the same time, the balance between “goodwill” and “neutrality” may vary depending on the scope of Sino-Russian cooperation. For example, in the economic sphere, Chinese companies will be afraid to cooperate with Russian partners for fear of secondary sanctions. However, in general, Russia will retain its importance for China as the strongest anti-American pole. In relations with the United States, China will continue to firmly defend its interests, while at the same time not excluding the normalization of relations with Washington in certain areas of cooperation: strategic stability, non-traditional threats, ecology, etc. In general, the decisions of the 20th CPC Congress do not allow us to say either in favor or against the idea of China's readiness to resume dialogue with the United States in the post-congress period. Sino-American relations, as noted above, have their own logic and will probably continue to develop within its framework. However, so are Sino-Russian relations. Within the framework of these logics, Beijing seems to continue to balance between the two vectors of its foreign policy. On the one hand, this is the development of bilateral cooperation with Russia in order to strengthen its own negotiating positions in the confrontation with the United States: military cooperation with an emphasis on joint exercises, political cooperation based on anti-Americanism, economic cooperation with an eye to the risks of secondary sanctions. On the other hand, it is unacceptable for China to recognize the collapse of Ukraine, the inadmissibility of a direct military clash with the United States and the extreme undesirability of further aggravation of relations with the United States on the factor of Chinese friendship with Russia.

A Legal Appraisal on Japan's Basepoints and Baselines under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

김현수 한국해사법학회 2015 해사법연구 Vol.27 No.3

If there are special circumstances in where a normal baseline can be drawn, a straight baseline can be drawn following the general direction of the coast in exceptional cases and can be recognized, which is to be established based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). However, Japan disregarded those principles and also did not consider international laws and the relations between neighboring countries without a consultation process and did not produce an equitable result. And Japan misused the straight baseline regime only for the purpose of the extension of its maritime jurisdiction and drew it unilaterally. Therefore, the straight baselines of Japan were drawn unilaterally without consideration of the relationship of neighbouring countries and as a result, it deviated from international laws such as UNCLOS and customary international laws. Such discrepancies are likely to induce legal and diplomatic conflicts between the relevant countries, and its settlement is not likely to be easy, particularly among the East Asian countries. In this regard, the legal issues surrounding Japan’s straight baselines and basepoints should be analyzed and evaluated not only from the perspective of UNCLOS, but also through comparative analyses based on customary international laws, state practices, and special circumstances. Many of Japan’s state practices and laws based on straight baselines are neither in accordance with international laws, nor generally recognized as being in accordance with the international law of the sea. Therefore, straight baselines should not be applied to unilaterally extend a coastal state's maritime jurisdiction. This paper provides important legal insights into Japan’s straight baselines and basepoints, which are unlawful from the perspective of UNCLOS and state practices, and, in addition, suggests desirable ways to solve problems in international laws and the international law of the sea.(직선기선은 연안국 일반적 방향에 따라서 정상기선을 설정할 수 없는 특별한 사정이 있을 때, 직선기선으로 정할 수 있는 예외적인 사정에 한해서 인정되고 있는 제도로 유엔해양법협약에 따라 설정되어야 한다. 그러나 일본은 이러한 원칙을 무시하고 국제법규와 인접국과의 관계를 고려하지도 아니하고 협의절차나 형평한 결과를 도출한 것도 아니면서 오직 자국의 해양관할권를 확대하기 위한 수단으로 직선기선이라는 제도를 악용하여 일방적으로 설정한 것이다. 따라서 일본의 직선기선설정은 인접국과의 관계를 고려한 바도 없이 일방적으로 선포하여 유엔해양법협약을 비롯한 국제관습법 등 국제규범을 일탈하고 있다. 또한 이러한 일탈은 관련국가간 법적·외교적 분쟁울 야기할 수도 있으며 특히 동아시아 국가간에서는 그 해결이 또한 쉽지 않다. 이러한 점에서 일본의 직선기선 및 기점에 관한 법적 문제점들을 유엔해양법협약의 관점뿐만 아니라 관습국제법, 국가관행 및 특별사정 등에 기초하여 비교적인 분석 및 평가를 할 필요가 있다. 이는 특히 직선기선에 관한 일본의 여러 국가관행 및 국내법률이 국제법과 일치하지도 않고 국제해양법상 일반적으로 승인되지도 않기 때문이다. 본고는 이러한 배경하에 유엔해양법협약 및 국가관행 측면에서 불법하게 설정된 일본의 직선기선과 기점에 대한 법적 고찰과 함께 국제법 및 국제해양법에 기초한 문제해결의 바람직한 방안을 제시하고자 한다.) If there are special circumstances in where a normal baseline can be drawn, a straight baseline can be drawn following the general direction of the coast in exceptional cases and can be recognized, which is to be established based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). However, Japan disregarded those principles and also did not consider international laws and the relations between neighboring countries without a consultation process and did not produce an equitable result. And Japan misused the straight baseline regime only for the purpose of the extension of its maritime jurisdiction and drew it unilaterally. Therefore, the straight baselines of Japan were drawn unilaterally without consideration of the relationship of neighbouring countries and as a result, it deviated from international laws such as UNCLOS and customary international laws. Such discrepancies are likely to induce legal and diplomatic conflicts between the relevant countries, and its settlement is not likely to be easy, particularly among the East Asian countries. In this regard, the legal issues surrounding Japan’s straight baselines and basepoints should be analyzed and evaluated not only from the perspective of UNCLOS, but also through comparative analyses based on customary international laws, state practices, and special circumstances. Many of Japan’s state practices and laws based on straight baselines are neither in accordance with international laws, nor generally recognized as being in accordance with the international law of the sea. Therefore, straight baselines should not be applied to unilaterally extend a coastal state's maritime jurisdiction. This paper provides important legal insights into Japan’s straight baselines and basepoints, which are unlawful from the perspective of UNCLOS and state practices, and, in addition, suggests desirable ways to solve problems in international laws and the international law of the sea.

DEVELOPMENT OF THREE DRIVER STATE DETECTION MODELS FROM DRIVING INFORMATION USING VEHICLE SIMULATOR; NORMAL, DROWSY AND DRUNK DRIVING

Kang Hee Lee,Keon-Hee Baek,Su Bin Choi,Nak-Tak Jeong,Hyunguk Moon,Eun Seong Lee,Hyung Min Kim,Myung-Won Suh 한국자동차공학회 2019 International journal of automotive technology Vol.20 No.6

Detection of drivers’ states is the essential technology not only to prevent car accidents related with their state but to develop self-driving car. Detecting technology generally uses two types of methods; physiological measures and vehicle-based measures. Vehicle-based measures have advantages compared to physiological method such as non-additional device, unsophisticated process and less computational power. For these reasons, vehicle-based measures are used for this study to build the detection system about 3 states; normal, drowsy and drunk driving. In order to achieve this purpose, three types of algorithm models are suggested using vehicle simulator experiments with twelve participants on three states; normal, drowsy and drunk. By analyzing the accuracy of each input packet data combination, the feature values, the configuration of the input data calculated through the vehicle driving data is used to derive the influential factors for predicting the driver state. The results of the models indicate high accuracy and give the possibility to be applied on detecting 3 states in real driving vehicles with the system using combination of developed models.

미국-적대국간 관계정상화를 통해 본 북⋅미 관계정상화 가능성에 관한 연구 : 중국, 베트남, 리비아, 쿠바 사례와의 비교

박경진,김용호 국가안보전략연구원 2018 국가안보와 전략 Vol.18 No.4

This article probes a possibility of U.S.-North Korean normalization through a comparative prism drawn from the past cases of U.S. normalization with former enemy states. The June 12 summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un generated various prospects ranging from optimistic expectation to pessimistic criticisms. By focusing on perceptional variants of both Trump and Kim, this paper purposes to present feasible prospects of the normalization. Through comparative analyses of U.S. normalization with China, Vietnam, Libya and Cuba, we inferred that leader’s perception, speed and style of negotiation, interactive processes of settling down conflicting barriers served as key variables toward normalizations. Whether Trump’s and Kim’s perception of potential interests earned from normalization may overcome conflicting issues revolving around denuclearization of North Korea and U.S. guarantee of Kim’s domestic political survival requires further observation. Nonetheless, it is certain that both Washington and Pyongyang would soon reach the nearest point to the normalization if both leaders’ perception of cost-benefit matrix remains constant. 이 글은 미국이 과거 적대국가와의 관계정상화를 추구했던 사례들에 대 한 비교연구를 통해 6⋅12 북미 정상회담을 계기로 활발히 진행되는 북한 과 미국과의 관계정상화에 대한 가능성을 분석한다. 과거 미국의 적대국가였던 중국, 베트남, 리비아 및 쿠바와의 관계정상화 과정에 대한 비교연구를 통해 관계정상화 과정에서 표출된 변수들을 밝혀내고 그 변수들의작동과정에 대한 고찰을 통해 가능성을 분석하려는 것이다. 비교연구의 결과 공통적으로 추출된 변수들인 ‘지도자 인식, 추진방식, 쟁점 및 해소’ 간 상호작용의 결과로서 화해라는 단계를 거쳐 관계정상화가 진행됐음을 도식화하고 있다. 나아가 이를 현 시점에서 북⋅미 관계에 대입, 양측의 전략적 이해관계 심화와 지도자들의 참여라는 긍정적 신호와 비핵화, 종전선언, 대북제재 등의 주요 쟁점의 해소 등 지속성을 요구하는 신호들을추출해 낼 수 있었다. 결론적으로 이 글은 한반도 평화정착의 근간으로 작 용할 북⋅미 관계정상화에 대한 명확한 인식과 객관적 근거를 토대로 향 후 전망을 제시하고 정책적 함의를 도출하는 데에 그 목적을 두고 있다.

Optimal Commodity Taxation in the Presence of Involuntary Unemployment : Importance of Progressive Income Taxation and Unemployment Insurance

Chul-In Lee 한국재정학회(구 한국재정·공공경제학회) 2004 한국재정학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2004 No.2

This paper addresses the optimal commodity taxation when involuntary unemployment arises from redistributive fiscal policies, e.g., a progressive income tax system and social insurance/welfare programs. This setting deals with a new dimension of distortions: the “between-states” (employment state vs. unemployment state) consumption choice distortion along with the usual “within-state” distortion conditional on a given state. We derive the optimal commodity taxation rule in the presence of the redistributive fiscal policies in a simplified ‘general-equilibrium’ efficiency wage model with effort and commodity choices. In contrast to the conventional results by Ramsey (1927) and Atkinson and Stiglitz (1976) that consider the within-state distortion only, we show that under the weakly separable utility and the constant marginal cost technology, uniform commodity taxation is optimal only when the government can choose all commodities’ tax rates. If at least one good’s tax rate is fixed at a certain level (e.g., due to redistributive purpose or to foreign competition), non-uniform commodity taxation is generally optimal. The intuition is that a deviation from uniform commodity taxation can alleviate the betweenstates distortion, moral hazard arising from a progressive income tax system and social insurance/welfare programs. This gain, combined with resulting greater effort and higher utilization of labor (i.e., lower unemployment), can outweigh the within-state consumption choice distortions from non-uniform taxation. Useful policy implications are also discussed.

김정은 시대 북한의 국가성격은 변화하고 있는가?: 당ㆍ정ㆍ군 현지지도 네트워크 분석

표윤신,허재영 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2019 한국과 국제정치 Vol.35 No.3

Kim Jong-un of North Korea constructed a party-government-military regime system by being inaugurated as the head of the People’s Party and the chairman of State Affairs at the 7th conventions of Korea Worker’s Party in 2016. Unlike his father, Kim Jong-il, who adopted a military-first politics called Songun politics, Kim Jong-un put his efforts to carry out typical socialist policies that could build up an image as a ‘normal state’. This research tries to find out that Kim Jong-un's effort to depart from ‘Songun politics’ and make a ‘normal state’ would have impact on the power structure of North Korea. To figure out the changes in the power structure, it used the social network analysis on the North Korean elites from party, government and military that accompanied on the Kim Jong-un’s onsite visits. By calculating eigenvector centrality which could measure the power changes in networks, this research would identify that the power structure in North Korean elites would shift from military elites to party and government elites in Kim Jong-un regime.

일본은 보통국가인가?: 군사력 수준과 무력행사 범위의 고찰

김태효(Tae-Hyo Kim),박중현(Joong-Hyeon Park) 고려대학교 일민국제관계연구원 2020 국제관계연구 Vol.25 No.2

이 논문은 아베 재집권기 내각 때 이루어진 일본 안보정책의 확장 범위가 그 이전에 비해 얼마나 크고 어떻게 다른지 학술적으로 분석한다. 이를 위해 그동안 일본 안보 담론에서 제기돼 온 ‘보통국가론’의 개념을 재정립하고 현재의 일본이 과연 보통국가의 기준을 충족하는지 여부를 검증한다. 보통국가의 판별 기준으로 ① 원거리 공격능력과 ② 무력행사 범위 두 가지 기준을 제시한다. 일본의 원거리 공격능력은 무기체계의 변화와 국제훈련 참가 현황을 통해 평가하며, 무력행사 가능범위는 일본의 해외파병과 무기사용을 가능케 하는 조건을 살펴 평가할 것이다. 이어서 미일동맹과 평화헌법의 지속성 여부를 평가하고 전망하여 일본 안보정책의 확장 가능 범위를 검토한다. 결론적으로, 첫 번째 기준인 군사력은 보통국가 수준에 도달했거나 혹은 이에 매우 근접하지만, 두 번째 기준인 무력행사 가능범위에는 아직 제약이 있으며, 일본이 처한 대내외 안보환경을 고려할 때 일본이 보통국가에 도달하기는 당분간 쉽지 않음을 주장한다. This paper analyzes the expansion of Japan’s security policy during the Abe era and the impact of that transformation. The authors redefine the concept of “normal state” and examine whether Japan is a “normal state.” We present two criteria for determining whether a country is “normal” in terms of its security policy: possession of long-range attack capability and the way it uses its forces. Japan’s long-range attack capability is assessed through changes in weapons system and the form of its participation in international military exercises. The scope of its possible armed activities is assessed by looking at conditions that Japan uses to decide whether to send troops abroad and use weapons. The paper then evaluates the scope of Japan’s security policy expansion by assessing and predicting whether the US-Japan alliance and the Peace Constitution are sustainable. We conclude that the first criterion, military power, has reached or is very close to the level of a “normal state,” but the second criterion, the range of possible armed activities, remains limited. The paper argues that Japan will not become a “normal state” for the time being, given the internal and external security environment it faces.

미국의 대북 경제제재 해제과정과 해제의 경제적 효과

양문수 ( Moon Soo Yang ) 북한연구학회 2008 北韓硏究學會報 Vol.12 No.2

This paper aims to investigate the process of U.S. economic sanction on the DPRK economy and explore what kind of impact the United States` removal of economic sanctions against North Korea will have on the DPRK economy. First, one must recognize that the lifting of sanctions on North Korea by the United States is one step toward the difficult task of establishing diplomatic ties and normalizing relations. These sanctions were not just of one flavor, but were two different animals, one kind being restrictive or prohibitive sanctions, the other being discriminatory sanctions. Currently, interest is focused on the lifting of sanctions related to the Trading with the Enemy Act and the removal of North Korea from the List of Terrorism-sponsoring States, which is but the first step in what will be a long process. The lifting of the remaining restrictive and prohibitive sanctions is necessary, as is the removal of discriminatory sanctions. There are two main issues at the center of the discriminatory sanctions. The most important is that the United States has not established Normal Trade Relations (NTR) with the North, which results in high tariffs practically prohibiting importation of DPRK goods. The next most important issue is tied to restrictions on trade and investment promotion policies of the U.S. Import-Export Bank, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), and other tools of U.S. trade. Therefore, the impact of lifting of sanctions related to the Trading With the Enemy Act and no longer labelling the North as a state sponsor of terrorism is limited. The unfreezing of North Korean assets in the United States, supporting emergency infusion funds of International Financial Institutions (IFIs), and easing restrictions on the transfer of strategic materials are some of the remaining steps that could help expand inter-Korean cooperation and North Korean engagement. Of course, looking at the mid- to long-term, Washington`s lifting of economic restrictions, and even normalization of relations would both directly and indirectly lend considerable help to the recovery of North Korean economy. That said, before these steps can be taken, there needs to be an absolute resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue, and substantial progress in the opening and development of the North`s economy needs to be considered as a prerequisite.

북한-유럽 연합 외교 정상화와 불량국가 미디어 담론

이향진 한국정치외교사학회 2005 한국정치외교사논총 Vol.26 No.2

이글은 영국의 매스미디어가 구성하는 북한의 이미지 분석을 통해 EU와 북한의 외교 정상화가 갖는 의의와 성과를 문화적 차원에서 살펴보고자 하였다. 2000년 북한과의 외교 정상화를 전후로 하여 영국의 주요 언론과 방송, 신문매체는 그간 차용해온 미국과는 다른 독립된 입장에서 북한사회와 문화를 소개하기 시작했다. 영국의 미디어는 북한주민이 겪는 다양한 체제 위기, 인권침해 및 자연재해를 김정일의 개인적 결함이나 비정상성을 주 원인으로 지적하며 사회 전체를 봉건군주의 사적 공간으로 신비화하는 오리엔탈리스트적 시각을 드러낸다. 반면 이라크전의 명분을 정당화하려는 부시정권과 이를 지지하는 자국 정부가 북한의 위험성을 과장하여 ‘악의 축’으로 규정한다고 비판하고 양국의 대북 정책이 갖는 도덕적 확실성을 묻고 있다. 동시에 미국를 위협하기엔 너무도 ‘약한’ 북한의 이미지를 부각시킴으로 미국이 주도하는 ‘불량국가’ 낙인론의 허구성을 지적한다. 이러한 영국 미디어의 북한담론은 국제관계론에서 통용되는 이분법적 국가정체론에 대한 새로운 이론적 시각을 재고케 한다. This study explores the changing images of North Korea reconstructed by the British media, in order to evaluate the impacts of the 2001 diplomatic normalization between Democratic People’s Republic of Korea(DPRK) and the European Union from a cultural perspective. Since the United Kingdom normalized its diplomatic relationship with DPRK in 2000, the British mass media has often focused on North Korean society and people’s lives from their own point of view. Between the media or programs, the media practitioners tend to show the different perceptions and political views on North Korea as a rogue state. On the other hand, despite the differences between them, the media discourses seek to depict North Korea from their own perspective instead of adopting those of the United States. At the same time, they appear to highlight the self-centred identity politics of the United States in labelling North Korea as a rogue state is still based on the Cold War ideology. In British eye, North Korea is an invention of the United States which needs a new ‘Otherness’ in the post-Cold War politics. Also, Kim Jong Il is evil but North Korea is not so powerful to threaten the security of United States or Europe. More importantly North Koreans urgently need the international humanitarian support as a condition of the normalization of diplomatic ties between EU and DPRK.