대만 차이잉원 정부 신남향정책의 추진 현황과 평가

이권호 한중사회과학학회 2019 한중사회과학연구 Vol.17 No.1

The New Southbound Policy is the most important foreign policy and economic strategy of Tsai Ing-wen government. This policy aims to create ‘a cooperation model for mutual benefit public service’ and to establish ‘a sense of economic community’ through economic trade collaboration, human resources exchange, resource sharing, and regianl links among 18 countries; 10 ASEAN countries, 6 countries in South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. However, regardless of Tsai Ing-wen’s intent, the authorities from Beijing cognize the Southbound Policy of Democratic Progressive Party as a grand strategy for an escape and separation from China for Taiwan’s economic independence and political independent establishment to stand firm. It also has been noted that the concerns between related countries about possible diplomatic friction due to the conflict which drives from Xi Jinping’s One Belt and One Road Policy and the New Southbound Policy. Under the long-term confrontation based on the China’s distrust against Democratic Progress Party and Cross-Strait Relations, can Tsai Ing-wen’s the New Southbound Policy to reduce the economic dependency from China and to expand a room for the diplomatic survival cruise along? Driving from these questions, this thesis analyzes the circumstances and the purpose of the establishment of Tsai Ing-wen government’s the New Southbound Policy and analyzes its potential risk factors in implementation stage through PDM (Project Design Matrix) model and evaluates the policy’s progress and its impact.

대만의 신남향정책과 한국의 신남방정책의 비교 연구

이권호 중국지역학회 2021 중국지역연구 Vol.8 No.4

대만과 한국은 거의 동시기에 아세안과 인도를 대외정책 추진의 주요 대상 지역으로 설정한 이름도 유사한 ‘신남향정책(新南向政策)’과 ‘신남방정책’을 발표했었다. 대만과 한국이 비슷한 시기에 동일 지역을 대상으로, ‘사람 중심의 공동체’를 핵심 이념으로 하는 대외경제정책을 수립하게 된 배경과 동기는 무엇일까? 유사한 정치·경제 발전의 경험과 정치체계 및 가치문화가 비슷한 대외정책 결정을 가능하게 했을까? 아니면 두 정부가 처한 시대적 조건이나 지정학적 환경이 이러한 대외정책을 탄생하게 했을까? 아시아의 대표적인 경제 선진국이며, 정치 민주국가인 대만과 한국이 아세안과 인도 를 대외정책의 핵심 대상 국가로 설정한 것은, 정책결정자들의 대내외 환경에 대한 새 로운 인식과 변화된 상황에 능동적으로 적응하기 위한 일련의 행동이다. 먼저 아세안과 인도의 경제성장과 발전 잠재력에 대한 새로운 인식이다. 둘째, 아태지역의 외교 안보 적 환경의 변화이다. 셋째, 양국이 공통으로 정치·경제적 분야에서 중국 리스크를 관리 할 필요가 있었다는 점이다. 본 논문은 대만과 한국의 대외정책결정과정에서 로즈나우가 제시한 역할요인과 체 제적 요인이 가장 중요한 변수라는 관점에 기초하여 차이잉원 정부의 신남향정책과 문재인 정부의 신남방정책을 비교 분석한다. 비교 분석의 주요 내용은 정책결정의 배경 과 동기, 정책목표와 추진전략과 체계 간의 유사성과 상이성, 그리고 정책 집행의 구체 적 성과에 대한 것이다. 이러한 비교 분석의 목적은 일반 이론의 정립보다는 이미 정립 된 이론적 명제들에 기초하여 대만과 한국의 대외정책 결정과 집행과정에서의 유사점 과 차이점을 보다 체계적으로 규명하고 비교하기 위한 것이다. At almost the same time, the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) announced “the New Southbound Policy” and “the New Southern Policy,” which have similar names that set ASEAN and India as major target areas for foreign policy enforcement. What was the background and motivation for Taiwan and Korea to establish external economic policies based on the “people-centered community” for the same region at the same time? Did similar experiences of political and economic development, political systems, and value cultures enable similar foreign policy decisions? Or did the historical conditions or geopolitical environment of the two governments decide these foreign policies? Taiwan and South Korea, Asia’s leading economic advanced countries and political democracies, have set ASEAN and India as key targets for foreign policy, a series of actions to actively adapt to the changed situation and new perceptions of the internal and external environment of policymakers. First, it is a new perception of the economic growth and development potential of ASEAN and India. Second, it is a change in the diplomatic and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region. Third, the two countries needed to manage Chinese risks in the political and economic fields in common. This paper compares and analyzes the Tsai Ing-wen government’s the New Southbound Policy and the Moon Jae In government’s the New Southern Policy based on the perspective that the role and external system factors suggested by James N. Rosenau are the most important variables in the foreign policy decision-making process. The main contents of the comparative analysis are the background and motivation of policy-making, similarity and difference between policy goals and implementation strategies and systems, and specific performance of policy execution. The purpose of this comparative analysis is to more systematically identify and compare similarities and differences in the process of determining and implementing foreign policy between Taiwan and Korea based on already established theoretical propositions rather than establishing general theory.

台灣「新南向政策」與韓國「新南方政策」之比較與分析

董思齊(Doong, Sy-Chi) 한국외국어대학교 대만연구센터 2019 대만연구 Vol.- No.14

Taiwan government has been working on the “New southbound policy” since President Tsai won the election in 2016. The goal is to create a mutual understanding and thus achieve a win-win beneficial solution through cooperating with each other in the various aspects such as economy, technology, culture and other public affairs. Currently, there are 18 south Asian countries’ government is focusing on. In order to build up a mutual trust with it south Asian friends, Taiwan has provided a wide range of knowledge-hows to help its south Asian country friends to solve problems. While its southern Asian friends are able to build up a better quality of life because of the helps from Taiwan, Taiwan also benefits in a way of making itself involve deeper in the global communities. In just around one year after the Taiwanese government launched the “New Southbound Policy”, South Korean President Moon Jae-In also proposed a “New Southern Policy”. The essence of this policy is to establish a “3P community” with ASEAN countries. The 3P community refers to a community for people where people and people are connected, a community for peace that contributes to Asian peace through security cooperation, and a community for prosperity where everyone lives well through mutually beneficial economic cooperation. From the fact that both Taiwan and South Korean announced to deepen its relationship with the Southeast Asian countries, it implies the two countries share a similar state situation. We can exam this from economical aspect and national security. One of the major concerns for Taiwan when discuss about economic agenda is its high dependency in the Chinese market. And for South Korea, it hopes to build a J-shaped curve which can combine South Korea and North Korea together and let South Korea as the center through the linkage between the New Northern Policy and the New Southern Policy. Back from 1970s, both Taiwan and South Korea relies heavily on export business for its GDP growth. Moreover, the exports from both countries are very similar. This had made a severe competition between both countries, and somehow jeopardize the possibility of business alliance. On the other hand, nowadays, though both counties have announced its Southeast Asian policy, the focus area of both policies are different which creates a possibility for a synergy between both countries. Especially for Taiwan being geographically in the center point of Korea’s strategic “J-curve”. It is crucial for both Taiwan and South Korea’s intelligences to open a dialog to find synergies from each other’s ASEAN or South Asia’s policies. The joint development will not only bring new opportunities but also can reduce conflicts in the global economic competition.

대만의『신남향(新南向)정책』과 해바라기 학생운동 고찰

이태준(Tae-Jun Lee) 인문사회과학기술융합학회 2018 예술인문사회융합멀티미디어논문지 Vol.8 No.8

2016년 출범한 대만의 차이잉원(蔡英文) 정부는, 대만과 동남아국가연합(ASEAN), 남아시아 및 오세아니아 국가들과의 적극적인 경제무역 협력과 교류를 주된 내용으로 하는『신남향(新南向) 정책』을 추진하고 있다. 신남향정책은 이전 정부의 남향정책을 발전적으로 계승한 것으로서, 단순한 경제무역 방면의 교류에 그치는 것이 아니라 자원의 공동 개발 및 문화, 교육, 인재 교류 등 다방면에서의 입체적인 협력을 포함하고 있다는 점에 그 중요성이 있다. 민진당 정부가 신남향정책을 적극 추진하고 있는 이유는 국제 교류의 다각화를 통해 경제를 활성화 시키고, 나아가 중국 대륙의 영향력을 감소시켜 국가적 자주성을 유지하려는 데에 있다. 지난 2014년 발생한 “해바라기 학생운동”은 대륙에 대한 의존과 종속을 반대하는 대만 민중들의 정서를 반영하였다는 점에서 신남향정책과 일맥상통한 점이 있다. 해바라기 학생운동의 표면적인 발생 원인은『양안서비스무역협정』에 대한 국민당의 강행처리와 그에 대한 민중의 분노에 있는 것이지만, 그 기저에는 인권이 억압당하고 언론의 자유가 부재한 중국 대륙의 전제 정치체제를 수용하기 어렵다는 대만인들의 보편적 인식이 자리 잡고 있는 것이다. Tsai Ing-Wen government of Taiwan which was born in 2016 has been promoting New Southbound Policy very vigorously. It contains economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN, countries in South Asian and Oceania. New Southbound Policy which inherited Southbound Policy of the former regimes of Taiwan is not only an economic and trade policy, but also involves various collaborations, such as joint development of resources, cultural and educational exchange, and personnel training, etc. The aim of New Southbound Policy of Taiwan government is to reduce economic influence of China and to maintain national autonomy through the diversification of international exchanges. The Sunflower Movement which happened in 2014 has something in common with the New Southbound Policy: both reflect the Taiwanese people s consciousness of the anti economical subordination to Mainland China. The ostensible causes of Sunflower Movement are ruling Kuomintiang s unilateral move in the Legislative Yuan to force the CSSTA and anger of Taiwanese publics about it. On the other hand, we can say that the fundamental reason of it is general wariness of Taiwanese who object to receive the autocratic system of Mainland China.

한국과 대만의 對아세안 경제정책 비교

이혁구 한국비교경제학회 2019 비교경제연구 Vol.26 No.2

본 연구는 한국의 ‘신남방정책’과 대만의 ‘신남향정책’을 중심으로 한국과 대만의대 아세안 시장에서의 경쟁과 협력에 관하여 분석하였다. 한국의 신남방정책은 기술이전을 통한 아세안 국가들과의 신뢰회복과 상호호혜 원칙에 기초를 두고 있어 아세안과의 공감대가 형성되고 있다. 한-아세안 경제협력을 위해 향후 다양한 아세안 각국의수요에 맞는 맞춤형 경제협력 청사진이 필요하며, 아세안 시장 개척에 있어서 기존의한-아세안 FTA 및 RCEP 등 플랫폼을 적극적으로 활용할 필요가 있다. 대만은 무역, 투자, 자원, 관광, 문화, 인재 교류 등 전방위적인 협력 확대를 목표로 하고 있다. 그러나 대만의 신남향정책은 제도적 경제협력 기제가 결여되어 있으며, 다자간 경제협력에 있어 중국의 압력이 커질 것으로 예상됨에 따라 정책적 성과를 거두는데 제한적이다. This study analyzes the competition and cooperation between Korea and Taiwan in the ASEAN market, based on Korea's 'New Southern Policy' and Taiwan's 'New Southbound Policy'. Korea's new Southern policy is based on the principle of regaining trust and reciprocity with ASEAN countries through technology transfer, and thus reaching consensus with ASEAN. For ASEAN-Korea economic cooperation, a customized economic cooperation blueprint is needed to meet the needs of ASEAN countries. To developing the ASEAN market, it is necessary to actively use platforms, such as the Korea-ASEAN FTA and RCEP. Taiwan's new southbound policy aims to expand all-round cooperation including trade, investment, resources, tourism, culture and talent exchange. However, Taiwan's new southbound policy lacks an institutional economic cooperation mechanism and is restricted in achieving policy results, because it is expected that China's pressure on multilateral economic cooperation will increase.

대만의 신남향정책이 수출에 미치는 단기적 영향

최병화 한국국제통상학회 2022 국제통상연구 Vol.27 No.3

This paper analyzes how Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) affects the export performance of firms using customs transaction-level data of Taiwanese exporters for the period 2006–2017. The analysis shows that the NSP has not made the expected progress in increasing exports to NSP target countries and reducing exports to China over the short term. Contrary to the policy’s initial aims, the NSP has increased the value of high-technology-intensive goods exported to China. It has also increased export price, quantity, and value to Taiwan’s other major trading partners—the United States, Japan, and Korea. These findings suggest that the NSP should be developed further to provide tangible support for exports to target countries and to accelerate some measures for promoting early harvests and concrete achievements. Moreover, continuous investment and policy support are needed from a long-term perspective.

정치-경제 연계 모델로 본 대만의 코로나19 대응 연구

김태완 ( Kim Taewan ) 사단법인 한국민족연구원 2020 민족연구 Vol.0 No.76

본 연구는 전대미문의 COVID-19에 대한 지구촌의 분투 속에, 상대적으로 낮은 치사율과 감염사례를 기록하고 있는 대만의 사례를 본인의 정치-경제 연계 모델을 통해 분석한다. COVID-19 사태에 앞서 발생한 홍콩사태와 2020년 1월의 총통 선거과정에서 중국을 위협으로 인식하는 국민적 공감대 확산으로 인해, 탈중친미 및 신남향 정책을 강하게 추진해온 차이잉원(蔡英文) 정부가 초기에 중국을 포함한 대외봉쇄를 강력하게 추진할 수 있었다. 이와는 대조적으로 한국과 대부분의 선진민주국가들은, 국가경제의 손실을 최소화 하는데 무게를 둠으로 대만만큼 과감한 봉쇄정책을 취할 수 없었다. 경제적 손실에 예민할 수밖에 없는 선진민주주의 국가들은, 한국의 대처를 더 공감하면서 자국에 적용가능한 모범사례로 꼽고 있다. 대만의 사례는 한국보다 더 좋은 결과를 이어가고 있지만, 대부분의 선진민주주의 국가들이 적용하기에는 다소 무리가 있는, 대만의 국내외적 특수 상황에 의한 독특한 경우로 분석된다. This research scrutinizes Taiwan’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to other major countries, Taiwan has been achieving very successful results including having the fewest number of infected people and the lowest fatality rate. This success results in the people’s strong support of the Taiwan government’s leadership and its bold decision to blockade all entry of foreign individuals to prevent the spread of the COVID-19. Using the politico-economic linkage model, this paper shows that Taiwan has effectively utilized its domestic public opinion on China’s threat and the deepening of US-China conflicts. In the Taiwanese eye, the 2019 Hong Kong incident proves that Beijing’s ‘one-country-two-system’ is a mere political propaganda and lacks substance. The Tsai regime’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) and the US-China conflicts provide an easier environment to choose a decisive blockade policy.

대만의 경제안보: 신남향정책과 반도체 산업

이왕휘,박성빈 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2023 국제지역연구 Vol.32 No.3

이 연구는 미중 전략경쟁 속에서 심각해지는 경제안보 정책을 분석한다. 2016년 5월 취 임한 이후 민진당의 차이잉원(蔡英文) 총통은 다변화를 통해 대중 의존도를 낮추기 위해 ASEAN 10개국, 남아시아 6개국 및 호주·뉴질랜드와 전략적 동반자 관계를 구축하고자 하였다. 이정책에도 불구하고 대중 의존도는 결정적으로 낮아지지 않았다. 2016~2022년 사이 무역과 투자에서 신남향 18개국의 비중이 조금 증가했지만, 중국이 차지하는 비중이 거의 줄지 않았다. 대만의 최대 수출품인 반도체의 대중 수출이 증가하면서, 대만은 2020 년 한국을 제치고 중국의 최대수입국으로 부상하였다. 군사안보 측면에서도 신남향 18개국 과 경제 및 인적 교류 강화가 중국의 위협을 명확하게 감소시키지 못했다. 미중 전략경쟁이 격화되면서, 대만의 대외정책의 초점이 신남향 18개국보다 인도태평양전략을 추구하는 미 국과 일본으로 이동했기 때문이다. 미국 고위층이 대만을 방문하거나 대만 고위층이 미국 을 방문할 때마다 중국은 군사훈련을 통해 양안관계의 긴장을 고조시켰다. 또한 최대 수출 품인 반도체가 미국의 대중 수출통제에 부정적인 영향을 받게 되었다. 다변화를 통해 대중 의존도를 축소하겠다는 목표를 공유하고 있다는 점에서 신남향정책은 우리나라의 신남방정 책 및 인도태평양전략과 유사하다. 이런 점에서 신남향정책은 우리나라에 중요한 정책적 시사점을 제공할 수 있다. 경제적 차원에서 수출 주력 품목의 다양화와 수출 시장의 다변화 가 동시에 필요하다. 동시에 미국과 일본과 협력을 강화하는 인도태평양전략에 대해 중국 이 군사적으로 반발하지 않도록 관리해야 한다. This study analyzes the economic security policy that is getting serious amid the U.S.-China strategic competition. Since taking office in May 2016, Democratic Progressive Party President Tsai Ing-wen has sought to establish strategic partnerships with 10 ASEAN countries, six South Asian countries, and Australia and New Zealand to reduce dependence on China through diversification. Despite this policy, its reliance on China has not decisively decreased. From 2016 to 2022, the proportion of the 18 New Southbound countries in trade and investment increased slightly, but China’s share hardly diminished. Taiwan surpassed South Korea as China’s largest importer in 2020 as exports of semiconductors, its largest export, surged. Strengthening economic and people-to-people exchanges with the 18 countries has not clearly lowered China’s threats. As the U.S.-China strategic competition intensifies, the focus of Taiwan’s foreign policy has shifted from the 18 countries to the U.S. and Japan that pursue the Indo-Pacific strategy. When high-ranking U.S. officials visited Taiwan or high-ranking Taiwanese officials visited the U.S., China raised tensions in cross-strait relations through military exercises. In addition, cutting-edge semiconductors have been negatively affected by the U.S. export controls to China. The New Southbound Policy is similar to Korea’s New Southern Policy and Indo-Pacific Strategy in that it shares the goal of reducing dependence on China through diversification. In this respect, the New Southbound Policy can provide important policy implications for Korea. At the economic level, it is necessary to diversify both export items and export markets. It is also needed to persuade China from provoking militarily to the Indo-Pacific strategy that strengthens cooperation with the U.S. and Japan.

위험분산을 위한 다층적 그룹핑 전략

김유철(Kim Youcheer) 동아시아국제정치학회 2018 국제정치연구 Vol.21 No.1

The Moon Jae-In administration unveiled the New Southbound Policy (hereinafter, NSP) as one of its main foreign policy agendas. NSP, as one pillar of “the Vision for Northeast Asia Plus,” seeks to promote solidarity and strengthen the relationship with the Indo- ASEAN countries. Furthermore, President Moon, in his official visit to Indonesia and Vietnam, suggested ‘3P (People, Prosperity, Peace)’ as the focal point of NSP. Against the empirical backdrop, this paper illuminates the rationale, evolutionary path, prospects, and the optimal implementation strategy of NSP. To reach such analytical goals, the paper conducts a comparative analysis on Korean administration’s multilateral-regional strategies. In addition, the paper reveals the motivation of the New Southbound Policy by analyzing the statements of main policy advisers of the Moon administrations. The result shows that NSP was mainly planned and implemented as a hedging strategy against China, in particular against the retaliatory measures after the deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense). Furthermore, the paper suggests an optimal implementation strategy of NSP. As NSP covers a wide geographical scope, the Korean government can take either the separate or integrated approach to ASEAN countries and India. The paper emphasizes the separate approach is more feasible, considering the reality of geo-strategic competition among big countries such as the U.S., China, India, and Japan and their idiosyncratic regional strategies. Under the fierce competition, the paper claims that the dynamic grouping is the optimal strategy for maximizing the feasibility of NSP. Lastly, the paper pinpoints India as a key partner state for the success of NSP and analyzes the threats and opportunities of enhancing the mutual relationship with India. The result shows that the danger of security entrapment can put the Korean government in the dilemma and weaken the momentum of regionalism in Northeast Asia, even though India has huge market potentials.

Diaspora Entrepreneurs’ Perspective on Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) Policy in Taiwan

Tate Agape Bawana 부경대학교 글로벌지역학연구소 2023 Journal of Global and Area Studies(JGA) Vol.7 No.2

This study examines the perspective of diaspora-owned small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) regarding the application of SME policy in Taiwan. Specifically, it focuses on comparing the periods before and after the launch of the New Southbound Policy (NSP). The aim is to investigate how the SME policy supports diaspora entrepreneurs in Taiwan based on their viewpoints. To explore this relatively unexplored concept, qualitative methods with descriptive and exploratory designs are employed to gain a deeper understanding of their perspectives. This study includes in-depth interviews conducted with six Indonesian diaspora-owned SMEs in the restaurant industry, as well as two individuals planning to establish new restaurant businesses in Taiwan. The respondents are categorized into three groups: those who operated their businesses before the NSP was implemented, those who did so after the NSP was implemented, and those planning to launch businesses after the NSP were implemented. The findings of the study reveal that the number of diaspora entrepreneurs owning SMEs has increased under the NSP. The NSP has also attracted diaspora individuals with an intention to start SMEs in Taiwan. The ease of accessing startup procedures and obtaining loan financing has positively contributed to their businesses. Additionally, intermediary groups such as diaspora associations play a crucial role in facilitating open forums between the diaspora and the government.