북한경제의 저발전 극복을 위한 대안적 체제전환 모델의 모색 : 아래로부터의 체제전환 모델 구상과 북한체제에 적용 가능성 및 성공조건

윤철기 ( Yoon Cheol-gee ) 평화문제연구소 2018 統一問題硏究 Vol.30 No.1

이 연구는 북한의 저발전 극복을 위한 대안적 체제전환 모델을 모색하는 데에 있다. 탈사회주의 체제전환 모델은 신고전주의 경제학에 기초한 ‘충격요법’과 ‘점진주의’ 모델, 그리고 중국과 베트남과 같이 점진적인 경제개혁을 실시했던 ‘당-국가 모델’로 구별할 수 있다. 이들 모델들은 자본주의로의 이행과정에서 경기침체와 인플레이션 그리고 렌트의 확산에 직면하게 된다. 그 결과 경제적 불평등과 저성장 혹은 저발전을 경험하게 된다. 이글은 기존 체제전환 모델의 문제들을 극복하기 위한 대안으로 ‘포스트 케인즈주의적 체제전환 모델’을 ‘대중시장론’과 접목·재구성하여 체제전환과 저발전의 극복을 동시에 추구하는 ‘아래로부터의 체제전환 모델’을 정립하고자 한다. 북한이 저발전을 극복하고 체제전환에 성공하기 위해서는 첫째, 농업개혁, 둘째, 산업구조개혁, 셋째, 시장개혁, 넷째, 무역 개혁 등이 필요하다. 이와 같은 북한의 개혁이 성공하기 위해서는 남한과의‘지속가능한’경제협력 모델이 필요하다. The purpose of this paper is a research on an alternative model for overcoming underdevelopment in North Korea. The post-socialist models of system transformation could divide the‘shock therapy model’, the‘gradualist model’ based on the neoclassical economics and the ‘party-state model’ which political system continue to remain, instead the political power exercised gradually economic reform. These models faced economic recession, inflation and expansion of rents, so that experienced economic inequality and lower growth or underdevelopment in the transition process. This paper tries to establish a bottom-up model of system transformation as an alternative model for solving this problems ,which restructure the post-keynesian model of system transformation based on the ‘mass-market theory for the third worlds’ development. It emphasizes (1) agricultural reform, (2) industrial structure reform, (3) market reform, and (4) the trade reform for overcoming underdevelopment in North-Korea. North-Korea need ‘sustainable’ economic cooperation with the South-Korea in oder to succeed these reforms.

시스템 다이내믹스와 새케인즈주의 모형

김덕민 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2019 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.20 No.4

This article explores the dynamic characteristics of the basic new Keynesian model which is widely used in lots of the central banks in each country and educated for the advanced macroeconomics at the graduate level in economics. System dynamics can give help to reveal the dynamic states of the basic model. In this article, the particular assumptions or determination with regard to the basic model such as jump variables and determinacy or indeterminacy of the model, which make lots of students and nonspecialists difficult to understand the model, can be easily found by help of the computer-aided simulation of system dynamics and some further related studies.

새케인지안 DSGE 모형의 추정을 통한 총수요·총공급 변동의 실증분석

남광희 ( Kwanghee Nam ) 한국국제통상학회 2017 국제통상연구 Vol.22 No.1

본 연구는 통화정책과 같은 수요측면이 중요한 역할을 하는 새케인지안 DSGE 모형에 공급측면을 강조할 수 있는 기술충격을 추가적으로 고려한 Ireland(2004b) 모형을 이용하여 총수요와 총공급의 변동 요인을 실증분석하였다. 상태공간 모형으로 정리된 추정 방정식에 대해 Blanchard-Kahn 해법을 이용하여 동학모형의 해를 도출하고 1991년 이후 우리나라 자료를 이용하여 매개변수들을 최우추정법(Maximum Likelihood Estimation)으로 추정하였다. 두 차례의 경제위기 동안의 총수요와 총공급을 추정한 결과에 따르면, 글로벌 금융위기 이후 경험했던 경기침체는 주로 총수요의 급격한 감소를 보인 반면, 총 공급의 감소는 미미하였던 것으로 드러났다. 이에 반해 외환위기 이후 경험했던 경기침체는 총수요의 극심한 감소뿐만 아니라 총공급의 과도한 축소를 동반한 것으로 밝혀졌다. 또한 역사적 분해를 통한 추정결과에 따르면, 글로벌 금융위기 기간에는 수요충격이 상당한 정도로 경기침체에 기여한데 반해, 외환위기 기간에는 공급충격이 압도적으로 경기침체에 기여한 것으로 밝혀졌다, We investigate fluctuations in the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model, where nominal variables, especially monetary policy, have an important role in propagating fluctuations of the economy. Following Ireland(2004b), we add the technology shock to an standard New Keynesian DSGE model. We estimate the State-Space model derived from a New Keynesian DSGE model using Korean data from 1991.Q1 to 2015.Q4, and simulate the model to compute components of the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply. From the simulations, we find that the aggregate demand severely decreased from the steady-state, but the aggregate supply did not shrink during the recession after 2008 global financial crisis. However, both the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply deeply decreased during the recession after 1997 foreign currency crisis.

임금 주도 성장과 이윤 주도 성장: 포스트 칼레츠키안 성장 모형과 정책적 함의

홍태희 ( Tae-hee Hong ) 한국질서경제학회 2015 질서경제저널 Vol.18 No.2

This study surveys the studies about the effect of income distribution on economic growth in using the Post Kaleckian growth model. The Post Kaleckian growth model is a kind of Post Keynesian economic model, which explains the key features of Keynes’s and Kalecki’s analysis of capitalist economies and examines distributional issues and distributional conflict for economic outcomes. Issues of this kind of macro model are back on the research agenda since the Great Recession. The Post Kaleckian macro model is based on the principle of effective demand, include distributional conflict between wages and profits. The Post Kaleckian growth model is based on a demand-driven distribution and growth model for an open economy inspired by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990), which allows for either profit- or wage-led growth. On the one hand, higher real wages increase demand, which stimulates output. On the other hand, higher real wages increase the cost of production. This reduces profits, which has a negative effect on investment. This Post Kaleckian growth model allows for studying the impact of functional income distribution on the growth in demand. In this study the empirical analysis results and implication of the Bhaduri-Marglin model will be discussed. It applies a single equation approach, estimating the distribution on the demand aggregates and summing up these effects in order to obtain the total effects of distribution on GDP growth. The empirical results show that most of countries are wage-led growth regime domestically, but overall a profit-led growth regime including open economy. This study suggests the alternative model to integrate various dimensions of income distribution into theory and empirical models. This paper begins with the analysis of the development of Post Kaleckian macro model, which is based on Hein and Vogel (2008), and then will continue to investigate in the next paragraphs: the survey, development and suggestion.

The Role of Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam

Khieu van Hoang 한국국제경제학회 2015 International Economic Journal Vol.29 No.1

This paper re-designs the New Keynesian model developed by Ireland (2004 Ireland, P. N. (2004). Technology shocks in the New Keynesian model. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(4), 923–936. doi: 10.1162/0034653043125158 [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] ) and then uses the Vietnamese data from January 1995 to December 2012 to estimate the model's parameters. The empirical results show that the State Bank of Vietnam had been more aggressive as well as more responsive to aggregate fluctuations in the period before August 2000 than in the latter period. Thus, this change in the policy stance could be a potential reason for the declining importance of monetary policy in generating movements in output growth, inflation, interest rate, and the output gap across the subsamples. Another notable finding is the dominant role of the cost-push shock in explaining fluctuations in inflation, interest rate, and the output gap, leading to a policy implication that more attention should be devoted to developing substitute and complement industries so as to mitigate negative effects of the cost-push shocks by reducing the degree of dependence on imports.

동태적 IS모형에서 통화의 역할

김동헌,임윤상 한국계량경제학회 2011 계량경제학보 Vol.22 No.3

As recently industrialized central banks conducted interest rate targeting, the usefulness of information of monetary aggregates for real economy has been discussed actively with focusing on the role of money in the IS model. This paper examines using Korean quarterly data of 1991:Q1 - 2010:Q2 the role of money in the backwardlooking and forward-looking dynamic IS models. The money is not statistically significant in both IS models while the real interest rate is. However, in the subsample analysis where the sample is divided into pre- and post- Korea financial crisis to incorporate the possibility of structural break around Korea financial crisis, the money seems to have played an important role in the pre-crisis period whereas the money appears not to have been statistically significant in the post-crisis period but the real interest rate has been statistically significant in the post-crisis period. These results imply that the money provided important information for the IS model before the inflation targeting but since the inflation targeting in 1998, the Bank of Korea targets interest rate explicitly and thus, the usefulness of monetary aggregates in the IS model seems to disappear as monetary aggregates are determined endogenously. 최근 선진국 중앙은행들이 금리타기팅(interest rate targeting)을 추진함에 따라IS모형에서 통화가 중요한 역할을 하는 지에 대한 논제를 중심으로 실물경제에 대한 통화량 정보의유용성에 대한 논의가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 IS모형에서 통화가 중요한 역할을 하는지를 살펴보기 위하여 과거투시적 IS모형과 미래투시적 IS모형을 바탕으로 1991년 1분기부터2010년 2분기까지 한국 분기별 자료를 이용하여 실증분석을 시도하였다. 통화는 두 동태적IS모형에서 중요한 역할을 하지 못한 반면 실질이자율은 통계적으로 유의하였다. 그러나 외환위기전·후 경제의 구조적 변화를 고려한 부표본 분석에서 통화는 외환위기 이전시기에 IS모형에서 중요한역할을 하였으나 외환위기 이후에는 통화의 통계적 유의성이 사라지고 실질이자율은 유의하였다. 본연구 결과는 물가안정목표제가 도입되기 이전에는 통화량이 통화정책의 기조를 반영하여 IS모형에서중요한 역할을 하였으나 외환위기 이후 금리타기팅이 추진됨에 따라 통화공급은 내생적으로 결정되고통화량은 IS모형에서 정보유용성이 사라졌음을 시사한다.

A Small-Scale Monetary Policy Model for Korea

Ji Shi Piao,Sangyong Joo 한국경제연구학회 2011 Korea and the World Economy Vol.12 No.3

We analyze a small-scale new Keynesian open economy model to assess the BOK’s monetary policy during the post crisis period. The model is estimated by the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The results are largely consistent with the predictions of the new Keynesian model. Most importantly, the forward looking behavior plays an important role in the IS curve as well as in the Phillips curve. The estimates on the real exchange rate in the model show signs consistent with the theory. The monetary feedback rule tells that inflation and output have been equally treated. The weight on the exchange rate is relatively small, but the exchange rate seems to be another important concern of the BOK. The impulse response analysis confirms that the BOK tries to offset the impact of exchange rate shocks in a moderate but persistent way. Our results indicate that even under the official inflation targeting regime, inflation is not the sole focus. The BOK seems to put no less emphasis on stabilizing exchange rates as well as output.

국방비지출과 경제성장: 한국의 경우

손일태 ( Il Tae Son ),김경규 ( Kyung Kyu Kim ) 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 2011 국방연구 Vol.54 No.3

본 논문에서는 케인지안 모형을 이용한 실증분석을 통해 우리나라에서 국방비지출과 경제성장이 경제적으로 어떠한 관계에 있는지 알아보았다. 실증분석결과에 의하면 국방비지출증가는 시차를 두고 산업생산이나 국민소득을 감소시키지만, 민간부문에 대한 정부지출은 시차를 두고 산업생산이나 국민소득을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 우리나라의 경우 국방부문에 대한 지출과 민간부문에 대한 지출이 상충관계에 있는 것으로 나타났다. Granger인과관계 검정결과와 VAR모형의 검증결과에 의하면 국방비지출은 산업생산지수와 국민소득에 영향을 미치면서, 동시에 국방비지출은 산업생산, 국민소득, 그리고 정부지출에 의해서 커다란 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the relations between the military expenditures and economic growth in Korea by conducting an empirical investigation of the Keynesian military economic model. The empirical investigation implies that the military expenditures will gradually, over time, have a reducing effects on the industrial production and GDP, but the government expenditures in the private sector will gradually, over time, increase the industrial production and GDP. It turns out that a trade-off between the government expenditures in the military sector and in the private sector does exist. The Granger Causality test and the regression results of the VAR model and ECM show that the military expenditures, and the industrial production and GDP do have a significant correlative effect on one another.

해외공급충격과 개방경제의 최적금리준칙

김근영 한국은행 2008 經濟分析 Vol.14 No.3

Inflation and output move in opposite directions under an external supply shock such as a rise in imported raw material prices. Because of this conflicting movement, the monetary authority confronts a difficulty that two of its policy goals - between price and economic stability - are in conflict. The paper attempts to derive the optimal interest rate rule of the monetary authority responding to the external supply shock from the perspective of maximizing social welfare, using a New Keynesian model. In constructing the model, the paper takes into account the characteristics of the standard new open economy macroeconomic model, such as imperfect competition and nominal price rigidity. In addition, the research takes account of the low elasticity of substitution between domestic intermediate goods and imported raw materials, and the asymmetry of price-setting between import and export goods so that the model conforms with the Korean economic structure. According to the analysis, the optimal interest rate rule, under circumstances where the uncertainty of international prices of imported goods mounts higher, sets inflation and output coefficients at 3.1 and 1.1, respectively. This signifies that an interest rate rule putting more weight on inflation can be optimal while taking into account inflation and the output gap at the same time. As the sustainability or uncertainty of the supply shock becomes greater, moreover, strengthening the response to inflation is analyzed to be desirable from the social welfare aspect. Furthermore, the effects of the rise in imported raw material prices on macroeconomic variables are examined via an impulse response analysis. When the optimal interest rate rule is followed, interest rates increase after the supply shock and then inflation stabilizes. As a result, the real sector such as production and consumption appears to recover gradually. The result implies that under an external supply shock, the monetary authority should conduct a systematic and explicit monetary policy based upon accurate understanding and judgement as to the degree, uncertainty and sustainability of the shock. In this case, the negative effects of the shock on the economy can be minimize. 수입원자재 가격의 상승과 같은 해외 공급충격 발생시 인플레이션과 총생산이 반대방향으로 움직이므로 통화당국은 물가안정과 경기안정이라는 두 정책목표가 상충하는 어려움에 직면하게 된다. 본고는 소규모 개방경제의 특징을 반영하는 새케인지안 모형을 이용하여 해외 공급충격에 대응한 통화당국의 최적 금리준칙을 사회후생 극대화 관점에서 도출하였다. 모형구축에 있어 불완전경쟁과 명목가격 경직성 등 기존의 새케인지안 모형의 특징뿐만 아니라 우리나라 경제구조에 부합하도록 국내중간재와 수입원자재간 낮은 대체탄력성, 수출입가격 설정의 비대칭성 등을 추가로 고려하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 수입재 국제가격의 불확실성이 높아진 상황에서의 최적 금리준칙은 인플레이션과 생산갭 계수를 각각 3.1과 1.1로 설정하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 인플레이션과 생산갭을 함께 고려하여 대응하되 인플레이션에 보다 중점을 두는 금리준칙이 최적임을 의미한다. 또한 공급충격의 지속성이 커지거나 불확실성이 확대될수록 인플레이션에 대한 대응을 강화하는 것이 사회후생 측면에서 바람직한 것으로 분석되었다. 나아가 수입재 가격상승이 거시경제변수에 미치는 영향을 충격반응 분석을 통해 살펴보면, 최적 금리준칙을 수행할 경우 공급충격 직후 금리가 상승함으로써 인플레이션이 안정되고 생산, 소비 등 실물부문도 점진적으로 회복되는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 해외 공급충격 발생시 충격의 강도, 불확실성 및 지속가능성 등에 대한 정확한 이해와 판단을 바탕으로 체계적이고 명시적인 통화정책을 수행할 경우 경제에 대한 부정적 영향을 최소화할 수 있음을 시사한다.

Optimal Environmental Policy in a Small Open Economy Under a New Keynesian Framework

Yongseung Jung,양두용 한국사회과학협의회 2023 Korean Social Science Journal Vol.50 No.2

This paper analyzes the optimal environmental policy under the new Keynesian environment. First, this paper conducts an empirical analysis using panel VAR. The results show that a 10% reduction in carbon dioxide is associated with a 2% reduction in GDP. To build a theoretical model, we next model the impact of the environment on economic activity in a small open economy and analyze the impact of environmental policies under a new Keynesian model. The results are as follows. First, optimized taxation should respond strongly to emissions and output since the emission is procyclical and firms’ abatement efforts are procyclical, dampening business cycle fluctuations. Second, environmental taxation should be levied on domestic emission flows, not the overall stock of emissions, since it is more efficient and likely to generate less macroeconomic volatility by inducing firms to reduce emissions and optimally adjust their activities over time. Finally, the simple optimized environmental taxations show that the environmental taxation policy should be aggressive and not tax-smoothing type since the so-called tax-smoothing policy is welfare detrimental.