세대별 고용의 성장 탄력성에 관한 연구

김준 ( Joon Kim ) 한국질서경제학회 2019 질서경제저널 Vol.22 No.2

Both world and Korean economy have changed sharply after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The pre-Global Financial Crisis era is an age of ‘jobless growth’, which means that economic growth rate is relatively higher than increase rate of employment. In contrast, the post-Global Financial Crisis era is an age of 'growthless jobs', which means that increase rate of employment is relatively higher than economic growth rate. This paper investigates the severe difference in generational growth elasticities of employment by making a comparison between the pre-Global Financial Crisis era during 2001∼2007 period and the post-Global Financial Crisis era during 2011∼2017 period in Korea. So it divides total population of aged 15 and over into five groups, which cover age of 15∼29, of 30∼39, of 40∼49, of 50∼59, and of 60 and over. For the purpose, it establishes the arc elasticity of employment to economic growth as an indicator of the relationship between economic growth and employment. It calculates these generational elasticities in total and five groups. It analyses the aspects of the transition from the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to the post-Global Financial Crisis era, and infers the meanings of the severe difference in generational growth elasticities of employment. Finally, based on the findings, this paper provides conclusions and policy implications. To compare the pre-Global Financial Crisis era with the post-Global Financial Crisis era, the arc elasticity of employment to economic growth is used as an indicator, that is a value of increase rate of employed persons denominated by economic growth rate. If the growth elasticity of employment in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is higher than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change which represents that increase rate of employment has been relatively higher than economic growth rate. On the contrary, if the growth elasticity of employment in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is lower than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change which represents that increase rate of employment has been relatively lower than economic growth rate. According to the analysis, the case of total labor population reveals a robust change from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs’. However, generational aspects differ severely across the five groups. The first group of aged 15∼29 reveals that the growth elasticity of employment has changed from -0.47 in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to -0.05 in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. The second group of aged 30∼39 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.01 to -0.22. The third group of aged 40∼49 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.66 to 0.07. The forth group of aged 50∼59 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.97 to 1.35. The fifth group of aged 60 and over reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.69 to 2.02. The above outcomes can be summarized as follows. First, the employment of young age population(aged 15∼39) continues to be poor. Second, the employment of prime working- age population(aged 30∼49) has been worsening. Third, the employment of middle and old age population(aged 50 and over) continues to be good. What are the meanings and implications of these results? For college graduates, initial firm size and contract type matter for later labor performances, showing that the dual structure of labor market, which is centered around firm size and contract type, has a particularly large influence. Earnings at the first or initial job can explain future labor market performances very well. The long-term effects of the first or initial job placement play a key role in the social problem. Middle-skilled jobs have vanished enormously, while high and low-skilled jobs have increased. Particularly, jobs have been polarized more rapidly in recessions and changed through pushing many middle-skilled prime age workers either into the inter-sector reallocation among high and low-skilled jobs or out of employment. As the average life span increases, old age population has increased sharply. Therefore old peoples who want to gain jobs have also increased continuously. But a private support method on the elderly employment is minimal, and depending on public financial support from national or local government can not satisfy their rising needs. One of the best policy measures for old age population is to let them stay employed for a longer time. To work longer requires re-designing the lifetime work schedule, and government should tune up life-long education scheme and social insurance system. ‘Growthless jobs’ can never be sustainable. If weak economic growth continues for the time being as expected, employment can not but shrink. As a result, 'growthless jobs' will fall in the trap of 'jobless low-growth' in the end, which means that both economic growth and employment are depressed together. Rapid aging and the fact that baby-boomers already started to retire have raised a doubt about sustainable growth and a possibility of decrease in working age population. In addition to economic growth, employment is a very important issue. So government and the private sector should provide decent jobs with adequate incomes and stable employment conditions as well as more job opportunities. It is also requested for labor market system to link job seekers to its providers, together with such public rules as higher retirement age and wage peak system.

An Empirical Analysis of FDI, Human Capital and China’s Regional Economic Growth

려아평,송재훈 아시아.유럽미래학회 2018 유라시아연구 Vol.15 No.4

Since the reform and development, China’s economy has grown rapidly and the national income level has been continuously improved. This is closely related to China’s policy of reform and opening up, especially with the large-scale inflow of foreign direct investment under the reform and opening up policy. However, at the same time of rapid growth, China’s regional economic imbalance has become increasingly serious. Due to factors such as policy, market, location, labor force and clustering effects, the scale of FDI use in eastern, central and western China is also significantly different.Since China’s reform and opening up, FDI has flowed into coastal areas in large quantities, which has promoted the rapid development of the economy in the eastern region. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the regional economic development gap has been widened. Coupled with the sloping FDI regional preferential policy arrangement, it has led to the growing economic growth gap between the east and the west and the increasingly uneven regional economic development. These problems will inevitably affect the long-term development and virtuous circle of the Chinese economy. Therefore, under the strategy of “Western Development” and “Rise of Central China”, rational and effective use of foreign direct investment can promote the growth of the central and western economy and narrow the regional economic development gap. Studying the differences and contributions of foreign direct investment to China’s regional economy has certain theoretical and practical significance. First of all, FDI and economic growth have always been hot issues for scholars in macroeconomic research. However, FDI research started in developed countries. Most of the theories about FDI are analyzed from the perspective of the investment home country. The research on the relationship between FDI and economic growth in developing countries is relatively rare. And the research angles are qualitatively researching the status quo of FDI regional differences, the causes of formation, the mechanism of impact on economic growth, and solutions. Moreover, the role of foreign direct investment in economic growth in different regions has also changed due to differences in macro environment and policies. Therefore, studying FDI has far-reaching theoretical significance for China’s economic growth.China’s research on FDI originated in the 1990s, most of them study the relationship between FDI and economic growth through two perspectives. First, under the framework of the neoclassical economic growth theory, the role of FDI as a form of capital in China’s economy is studied. Second, the role of FDI in economic growth through technological spillovers is studied under the framework of the new growth economic theory. Based on the new growth theory, this paper sorts out nearly 10,000 data from 1998 to 2016. Through data analysis and empirical analysis, it provides case experience for FDI and economic growth theory in developing countries, which is beneficial to further research on FDI and economy. Secondly, this paper studies the relationship between FDI, human capital and China’s regional economic growth. It is not only a summary of the use of foreign direct investment in the past 30 years, but also an exploration of the rational use of foreign direct investment in the future. Rational use of foreign investment, with the goal of narrowing regional disparities and promoting balanced development of the regional economy, strive to maximize the role of foreign direct investment in promoting the economy. Based on these research implications, we use the cobb-dauglas production function as a theoretical model to study the relationship between foreign direct investment, domestic investment, human capital and China’s economic growth using panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2016. Through the quantitative analysis of panel data, the impa...

동반성장 기업의 이익조정 연구 :회계이익-과세소득 차이 정보를 활용하여

류예린 ( Ryu Ye-rin ),지상현 ( Ji Sang-hyun ) 한국세무회계학회 2018 세무회계연구 Vol.0 No.57

2008년 서브프라임 금융위기 이후 한층 심각해진 한국 경제의 양극화 현상에 대한 해결책의 한 일환으로 동반성장(Win-Win Growth)이 제시되면서, 한국 정부는 대기업의 무분별한 확장을 막고 중소기업을 보호·육성하기 위한 제도적 방안으로 2010년 동반성장위원회를 설립하였다. 그로부터 8년여 지난 시점에서 한국 경제에서 동반성장의 제도화가 어느 정도 자리를 잡아가고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기업의 사회적 책임의 한 일환으로 동반성장활동에 적극적인 기업과 그렇지 않은 기업 간의 이익조정 수준에 차이가 있는 지를 검증하고자 한다. 이를 위해 이익조정의 대리변수(proxy)는 많은 선행연구에서 재량적 발생액과 더불어 이익조정의 측정치로 활용된 회계이익-과세소득 차이(Book-Tax Difference;BTD) 정보를 활용한다. 연구표본은 동반성장위원회에서 동반성장지수를 공표하기 시작한 2011년부터 2016년까지의 12월 결산 한국거래소 상장기업으로 최종 연구표본 수는 3,774개 기업-연도이다. 분석결과, 동반성장 수준이 높은 기업이 그렇지 않은 기업에 비해 회계이익-과세소득 차이(BTD)가 작게 나타나 이익조정 수준이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 동반성장 평가기업만을 대상으로 한 분석과 두 가지 재량적 발생액 측정치를 활용하여 검증한 추가분석에서도 각각 지지되었다. 따라서 본 연구결과에 의하면 기업의 사회적 책임활동 및 대기업-중소기업간 상생발전에 더 많은 관심을 기울이고 노력하는 기업이 그렇지 않은 기업에 비해 회계이익의 투명성 및 신뢰성도 상대적으로 더 높음을 의미한다. 본 연구는 기업의 동반성장 활동 수준에 따른 기업의 이익조정 수준을 회계이익-과세소득 차이(BTD) 정보를 활용하여 검증함으로써, 자본시장참여자들의 동반성장 기업 관련 의사결정에 조금이나마 도움이 되며, 동반성장 정책의 입안자 및 정부당국의 동반성장 활동지원 제고 등에도 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 기대된다. The objective of this study is to examine the relevance of between Win-Win Growth and Earning Management. The level of Earning Management, which is dependent variable is measured by Book-Tax Difference(BTD) is estimated by Park et al.(2006). The samples of this study selected from listed corporate, consist of 3,774 observations can be collected from 2011 to 2016 at FnGuide. The result of this study can be summerized in the following. First, the Win-Win Growth has a significant negative relevance on Book-Tax Difference(BTD) is the proxy of Earning Management. This means that Win-Win Growth corporate has a higher the transparency of Accounting relatively. Second, Win-Win Growth also has a significant negative relevance on Book-Tax Difference(BTD) on the sample that is made up the Win-Win Growth Corporate completely. Finally, Win-Win Growth also has a significant negative relevance on Discretionary Accruals are measured by multi methodology(Dechow et al., 1995;Ball and Shivakumar, 2006). So we can expect that the accounting information of Win-Win Growth corporate is true as steel. But this study have some limitation. Especially we can’t explain the reason the Win-Win Growth has a significant negative relevance on Book-Tax Difference(BTD) We hope that our result can help investor making a reasonable decision on investment and officials making a effective policy on the Win-Win Growth.

준실험설계에 의한 혁신도시 개발정책이 지역경제 성장에 미치는 영향

임태경 ( Lim Taekyoung ) 한국지방행정연구원 2019 地方行政硏究 Vol.33 No.3

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy of ‘Innovative City’ on regional economic growth in South Korea. This study focused particularly on the case study of ‘Innovative City’ governed from federal government in order to achieve balanced national development and its impact on regional economic growth. Specifically, this research demonstrates empirically a research question: How do the policy of ‘Innovative City’ planned from federal government affect regional economic growth at the city level in South Korea? With using a panel dataset with the 31 cities of South Korea during the period from 2006 to 2016, the statistical modeling framework most closely aligned with the postulated causal process, and supportable with available data, was a difference-in difference(DID) methodology. The results of DID model are showing that the ‘Innovative City’ has had statistically significant positive effects after its terminated on the regional economic growth. On the other hand, the treatment effects regarding ‘Innovative City’ have a negative and significant relationship on the regional economic growth variables. Otherwise, findings from this study provide empirical evidences that both effects of post-and-treatment did not significantly impact to regional economic growth. This study found no evidence of any post-treatment effects with estimation of a series of DID model. The importance of this research stems from recognition that it is importance to evaluate the effectiveness of the ‘Innovative City’ policy in terms of stimulating economic growth. These finding help to expand understanding of the mechanism on the decentralization policy in South Korea. It will be more robust to understand on how the policy of ‘Innovative City Season 2’ can be improved aspect of regional economic growth.

회계이익과 과세소득의 차이와 이익성장성-비정상적 BTD와 정상적 BTD를 중심으로-

강주훈,최미화 한국회계정보학회 2010 재무와회계정보저널 Vol.10 No.3

This study investigates the relation between book-tax differences and earnings growth. Because financial accounting rules afford managers more flexibility and discretion in reporting than tax accounting rules prior studies(Lev and Nissim, 2004;Hanlon, 2005) suggest that large differences between book and taxable income indicate less persistent earnings. In this study differences between book income and taxable income was obtained by using account such as deferred tax asset, deferred tax liabilities and earnings before tax expense and tax expense from financial statement. This paper also examines the relative explanatory power of NBTD, ABTD and earnings growth. For this study, Book-Tax differences is estimated using DART. The sample consisted of 1064 Korean Stock Exchange firms from 2005 to 2008. This study can be summarized as follows;We find significantly negative association between BTD and earnings growth. We decompose the BTD mesure into normal and abnormal components as in Tang(2006). Normal BTD is defined as the mechanical differences due to different income reporting requirement in GAAP and tax laws and abnormal BTD refers to the opportunistic differences due to earnings management and tax management. We examines the relative explanatory power of ABTD and G to lower earning growths. The evidence shows that predictive power of ABTD is relatively stronger than that of earning growths. We also examine the lower earnings growth for large BTD firms is due to earnings management. 본 연구는 상장기업을 대상으로 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이가 이익성장성에 미치는 영향을 검증하고자 한다. 2004년부터 2008년까지의 12월 결산법인인 상장 제조기업을 대상으로 하였다. 최근 기업의 이익조정의 측정수단으로 회계이익과 과세소득 차이의 정보가 관심이 되고 있다. 관련 선행연구는 대부분이 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이의 총액을 이용하거나 또는 일시적 차이, 영구적 차이로 구분하여 이익성장성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으나 그 결과가 일관적이지 않은 실정이다. 본 연구는 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이를 선행연구와 달리 Tang(2006)의 방법으로 비정상적 BTD와 정상적 BTD로 분해해서 이익성장성과의 관련성을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이 총액은 이익성장성과 음의 관련성이 나타났으며 둘째, 비정상적 BTD는 이익성장성과 음의 관련성이 있었으며, 정상적 BTD는 유의성을 확인할 수 없었다. 셋째, BTD가 큰 표본에서 비정상적 BTD의 이익성장성과의 관련성은 큰 양의 BTD(LPBTD) 표본에서만 유의한 음의 관련성을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 국내시장을 대상으로 한 선행연구에서와 방법을 달리하여 BTD를 비정상적 BTD와 정상적 BTD로 분해하여 이익성장성과의 관련성분석을 시도하였다는데 그 공헌점이 있다. 또한 선행연구들이 BTD측정시 법인세부담액으로 추정한 과세소득을 사용하였으나 본 연구는 감사보고서 주석사항의 과세소득을 이용함으로써 측정오류를 줄이려 하였다.

대기업의 동반성장활동이 중소기업의 경영성과에 미친 효과: 삼성전자 글로벌 강소기업 육성프로그램을 중심으로

송혁준 ( Hyuck Jun Song ),이문영 ( Moony Lee ) 한국회계학회 2016 회계저널 Vol.25 No.5

한국 경제에서 대기업과 중소기업의 격차가 점점 벌어지고 사회문제로까지 되는 가운데, 최근 대-중소기업 동반성장활동이 정책적으로 장려되고 있다. 삼성전자는 동반성장활동의 하나로 글로벌 강소기업 육성 프로그램을 운영 중인데, 성장잠재력이 있는 협력사를 집중 지원하여 세계 1~5위 혹은 국내 1~2위 기업으로 육성하자는 것이다. 본 연구는 이 프로그램이 협력사의 경영성과에 미친 영향을 분석하기 위하여 2011년부터 2013년까지 지원대상으로 선정된 37개 협력사를 실험집단으로 하고, 성향점수매칭(propensity scorematching, PSM)으로 통제집단을 추출한 후, 이중차이분석(difference-in-differenceanalysis)을 실시하였다. 분석결과 이 프로그램은 협력업체의 연구개발투자와 수익성에 양(+)의 효과를 미치는 것으로 나타나, 삼성전자의 동반성장활동이 중소기업의 기술개발과 경영관리 개선으로 이어진다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 동반성장활동이 강소기업의 경쟁력에 미치는 성과에 관한 시사점을 제공할 것으로 기대된다. The gap between large firms and small to medium sized firms (SMEs) has grown, raising economic imbalance and losing growth drivers, as well as creating social problems in South Korea. The government pushes large firms to support or cooperate with SMEs under the ‘Win-Win Growth’ policy. Under this policy, large firms can provide support to SMEs in several ways. Among these, Samsung Electronics launched the Global Hidden Champion Nurturing Program in 2011. Since its launch, Samsung Electronics has selected approximately ten promising suppliers every year and has provided continuous assistance, resulting in a total of 2.3 trillion KRW for 50 SMEs spent over five years. The program aims to nurture strong and competitive SMEs with a goal of raising their rank to at least fifth in the world, and second in the domestic market, in terms of market share. Through the nurturing program, Samsung Electronics provides aid in areas such as technology, manufacturing processes, human resources, education, and operation management. This program differs to the support of other large firms in that the basic viewpoint is not just distributing benefits from large firms to SMEs, but building an effective corporate ecosystem together. Samsung Electronics expects to innovate its products in collaboration with the high quality components of suppliers, leading to coevolution. The literature on cooperation between large firms and SMEs often sheds light on best practices of Win-Win Growth activities implemented by large firms and usually provides positive assessments (Yoo and Kim 2012; Rhee 2014, 2015; Kim 2014; Jeon and Roh 2013). However, prior literature is limited in that any economic effects on SMEs have not been discussed, even if SMEs are the focus point. Furthermore, assessments in the literature rely mainly on qualitative analysis with verbal data. In this study, we try to provide direct evidence regarding the effects of the Global Hidden Champion Nurturing Program on the business performance of supported SMEs using financial analysis. To analyze the nurturing program effect, we first set up a treated group of 37 selected suppliers of Samsung Electronics from 2011 and 2013. For a business performance comparison, we create a control group by choosing 98 SMEs that do not get aid from Samsung Electronics and that matched as closely as possible with the treated group in propensity-score matching. As we failed to find any matches with a firm of the treated group, the sample consists of 134 unique firms. We focus on two years, 2010 and 2014, as in the former year the nurturing program had not yet begun while the latter year is after all the treated group began to receive support. We collected the list of the 37 selected SMEs from a newspaper article, while financial data was obtained from DataGuide. To address the endogeneity of capability in supported SMEs and time-series effects, we use difference-in-difference analysis. We regress dependent variables on Treat (indicator variable that denotes the treated group), Post (dummy variable that represents the year of 2014), and Treat ×Post, their interaction term, including controls. We examine 11 dependent variables: (1) capital expenditures and R&D (research and development) expenditures, to test investment; (2) change in sales and domestic market shares, for growth analysis; (3) the operating margin, operating cash flows margin, net margin, return on assets, and return on equity, to investigate profitability; and (4) asset turnover and Tobin’s Q ratio. The empirical findings are summarized as follows. Firstly, the nurturing program has little effect on capital expenditures, however, positive effect was observed on R&D investment. Secondly, the program does not show any significant impact on the domestic market share, while it is negatively associated with sales growth. We note that the analysis on market share has a limitation in that the measure does not cover global market shares, whereas supported SMEs generate most of their sales in the global market. Moreover, the negative association between the nurturing program and stagnant sales growth of supported SMEs may be attributed to the fact that Samsung Electronics experienced a dramatic decrease in sales in 2014, resulting in the sales reduction of supported SMEs as suppliers to the giant customer. We hope they diversify their customer base and mitigate the possible dependency on Samsung Electronics in the future. Thirdly, the nurturing program shows positive effects on the operating margin and net margin, implying that the program worked for the improvement on supported SMEs’ business management. Finally, the nurturing program has little effect on asset turnover and Tobin’s Q. Taken together, aids by Samsung Electronics can lead SMEs to perform better through technology innovation, as well as management improvement. This paper contributes to the literature by providing evidence on the financial effects of the support of large firms on SMEs from the perspective of SMEs. We expect that Win-Win Growth activities create value for both SMEs and large firms, leading to an effective corporate ecosystem.

키토산-폴리비닐 하이드로젤에서 사람 치은 모세포와 정상인 구강각화세포의 성장차이

이종현,박경주,이종헌 대한구강악안면병리학회 2007 대한구강악안면병리학회지 Vol.31 No.5

Many researchers are interested in wound healing in the t reatment of burns, prevention of post surgical adhesions and cosmetic s urgery by excess collagen production and scar formatlOn Synthetic epidermal substi tutes with cultured epi thelial cells seem to be an attractive strategy since keratinocytes have been demonstrated to modulate fibroblast growth and collagen synthesis. Bioa bsorbable and biocompatible chitosan structurally mimics hyaluronic acid. Recently, a bio compatible synthesi zecl ch itosa n-PVP(polyvinyl pyrrolidone) hydrogels demonstrated in vitro biocompat ibi li ty for bio medical applications . However. there is no re port on this hydrogeJ"s ability to modulate human gingival fibroblast growth. The purpose of this study were to investigate different growth modulation between human gingival fibroblast and normal human oral keratinocyte by chitosan- PVP hydrogel, and to apply this biocompatible synthetic polymer to oral and maxillofacial wound healing. We have synthesized a hydrogel from chitosan-PVP and examined its effect on human gingival fibroblast growth modulation in vitro. Non-toxic and biocompatible hydrogel with human gingival fi broblasts and epithelial cells was tested by MTT assay. HGF showed a higher growth proliferation than that of NHOK after cell seeding. In MTT assay, 30% hydrogel leach out products showed a higher cellular viability in NHOK than that of any other products. In MTT assay, 30% hyclrogel leach out products showed relatively lower cellular viability of HGF ln growth profile, NHOK showed about 7 fo lcls higher than HGF after 1 day, while about 2 fo lds higher after 5 days. And also NHOK showed above about 70% cell ular via bility from 1 to 7 days. It suggested that Chitosan-PVP hydrogel would inhibit relatively the growth of HGF and s timulate the growth of NHOK_ This phenomenon may prove to be of use in wound management 0 1' oral and maxillofacial area as epitheli al substitutes.

Industrial Difference in Employment Effect of Economic Growth

최창곤(Chang kon Choi) 한국경제통상학회 2011 경제연구 Vol.29 No.4

본 연구는 경제성장과 고용증가와는 어떠한 관계가 있는지를 이론적 및 실증적인 분석을 한다. 경제성장에 따른 취업자의 증가를 결정하는 경제구조적인 요인이 있는지를 분석하고자 한다. 분석결과는 고용탄력성은 자본계수와 노동생산성의 노동탄력성(=ϚNN)과는 역의 관계가 있고 노동공급의 임금탄력성과 노동생산성의 자본탄력성과는 정의 관계를 보이고 있다. 특히, 도출된 고용탄력성을 이용하여, 전 산업 및 산업별 자료를 대상으로 추정된 고용탄력성의 값이 변해왔다면 그 변화의 원인을 분석한다. 분석결과 일부 산업은 생산구조의 변화에 그 원인이 있지만 다른 산업에서는 노동공급구조의 변화에 그 원인이 있을 수 있음을 보였다. It is often argued that job creation effect of economic growth is not so large as in the past. Apparently, since the employment does not increase enough while the economy grows, the phenomenon has been called as "Jobless growth". It looks that most empirical papers confirms it based on the empirical estimates of the so called employment elasticity. This paper aims to refine the topics by looking at how employment effect of economic growth is different depending on the industry. First, this paper shows empirically that employment elasticity is not the same, but different for different industry. And it has changed over time: while the value has decreased for some industries like manufacturing and construction, it has increased for others like finance, insurance and education. Second, it is shown that each industry has its own reason for its employment elasticity to have changed differently over time. We try to identify which determinant(s) is (are) responsible for changes in empirically estimated values of employment elasticity in each industry.

산업별 고용의 성장 탄력성에 관한 연구: 글로벌 금융위기 전과 후의 비교

김준 ( Joon Kim ) 한국질서경제학회 2021 질서경제저널 Vol.24 No.2

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and employment of each industry in Korea in comparison between pre and post-Global Financial Crisis era. Growth elasticity of employment is used as an analytical tool, and it is applied to all industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries, manufacturing, construction, and service. Furthermore, the three major sectors of service industry based on the employed, which are wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and restaurant business, health and social welfare service, are analyzed separately. Overall industries distinctly shifted from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs’ around Global Financial Crisis. Employment creation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries improved after the crisis, and the prospect is to be continued for some time. Manufacturing industry showed better indicators shortly after the crisis but deteriorated again, and its percentile in employment is viewed to decrease consistently. Construction industry showed constantly high performances on employment creation after the crisis. Service industry had persistently decent employment creation in defiance of the crisis. For the three major sectors of service industry in the post-Global Financial Crisis era, wholesale and retail trade had negligible employment creation effect of growth. In contrast, accommodation and restaurant business showed vast employment creation effect after the crisis. Health and social welfare service still had substantial employment creation effect of growth. The tertiarization, which brings the heart of economy from manufacturing to service industry, is a common phenomenon in the process to highly industrialized country. Nevertheless, concentration of jobs on service industry with low labor productivity has risks of negative effects on the economic growth potential. Thus, it is essential for the employment creation measures of service industry to be focused on not only the quantity of jobs, but also expanding sustainable jobs of quality and high productivity.

지역물류산업과 경제성장의 관계에 대한 패널분석

최봉호,이기환 한국무역학회 2019 貿易學會誌 Vol.44 No.2

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between the logistics industry and the economic growth in Korea, and to provide implications for the contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth. Unlike Previous Related Studies, we derive short-term and long-term effects through dynamic panel analysis such as panel Granger causality test and impulse response function estimation using panel vector error correction model. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows: Labor input of the logistics industry has the greatest positive impact on economic growth. And capital input and total sales of the logistics industry have a negative effect on economic growth. This means that Korea's logistics industry features labor-intensive growth. In addition, We have also found that the growth (sales) and capital input of the logistics industry have not yet had a direct positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, the results of this analysis provide implications for the direction of logistics industry policy to enhance contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth.