기후변화에 따른 소나무림 분포변화 예 측모델

김태근 ( Tae Geun Kim ),조영호 ( Youngho Cho ),오장근 ( Jang Geun Oh ) 한국하천호수학회(구 한국육수학회) 2015 생태와 환경 Vol.48 No.4

This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests`` distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests`` growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees`` geographical distribution change is more affected by climate``s extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest``s age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.

기후변화에 따른 소나무림 분포변화 예측모델

김태근,조영호,오장근 한국하천호수학회 2015 생태와 환경 Vol.48 No.4

This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests’ distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests’ growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees’ geographical distribution change is more affected by climate’s extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest’s age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.

환경공간정보를 이용한 수도권의 수자원 공급과 기후완화 기능을 위한 도시림의 생태계서비스 평가

이수정,유소민,함보영,임철희,송철호,김문일,김세진,이우균 대한원격탐사학회 2017 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.33 No.6

This study assessed the water provisioning and climate mitigation ecosystem services of the urban forest in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. The ecosystem service assessment is conducted based on natural function, natural function and population, and natural function and the beneficiary of the ecosystem service. Then, the impact of climate change on ecosystem services is analyzed to figure out the sensitivity of the impact on the beneficiary when the natural function of forest destroys under climate change. Gyeonggi-do has higher function-based water provisioning ecosystem service than Seoul. And populationbased water provisioning ecosystem service appears to be higher in the densely populated area. On the other hand, beneficiary-based water provisioning ecosystem service by applying both natural water supply function and beneficiary distribution appears different with the result of population-based water provisioning service assessment. In other words, regions with high beneficiary population show higher ecosystem service than those with a low beneficiary population even though they have the same water storage function. In addition, climate change has a negative impact on the water provisioning ecosystem service. Under climate change, water provisioning service is expected to decrease by 26%. For climate mitigation service, regions close to the forest seem to have a low temperature, which indicates their high climate mitigation service. The center of the city with high beneficiary population shows high beneficiarybased ecosystem service. The climate change impacts the forest growth to decrease which affect the beneficiary-based climate mitigation ecosystem service to decrease by 33%. From this study, we conclude that beneficiary-based function and ecosystem service assessment is needed as well as the supply-based classification of forest function suggested by Korea Forest Service. In addition, we suggest that not only supply-based function classification and ecosystem service assessment but also beneficiary-based function classification and ecosystem service assessment is needed for managing the urban forest, which has been destroyed by climate change. This will contribute to revaluing cases where a forest with low natural function but high beneficiary-based ecosystem service, which is not considered under the current forest function-based assessment system. Moreover, this could assist in developing a suitable management plan for the urban forest. 본 연구는 서울과 경기도 지역 도시숲의 수자원 공급 생태계서비스와 기후완화 생태계서비스를 평가하였다. 생태계서비스를 자연기능기반 서비스, 산림의 자연기능과 인구분포를 고려한 생태계서비스, 산림의 자연기능과 수혜자 분포를 고려한 생태계서비스의 세 가지 서비스로 구분하여 평가하고, 이후 기후변화가생태계서비스에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 평가 결과, 토지피복과 토양 등 자연조건을 반영한 도시림의 수자원 공급서비스의 경우, 경기도가 서울보다 높은 서비스를 제공하는 것으로 나타났으며, 지역별 인구분포를추가적으로 반영한 서비스 평가에서는 인구가 많은 곳에서 서비스가 높게 나타나는 양상을 보였다. 그러나도시림의 수자원 수혜자 분포를 추가로 반영한 수자원 공급 생태계서비스 평가 결과는 인구분포를 반영한 서비스 평가 결과와 공간적으로 다르게 나타났다. 같은 수원함양 기능을 가진 지역이라도 인구분포나 물 사용수혜자의 분포가 많은 지역일수록 높은 서비스 결과가 나타났다. 또한 기후변화가 수자원 공급 생태계에 서비스에 미치는 영향을 평가한 결과, 기후변화에 따른 수자원 공급 서비스는 평균적으로 26%정도 줄어들어전반적인 수자원 공급 생태계서비스가 낮아지는 경향을 보였다. 기후완화부문의 경우, 산림으로부터 가까운거리에 있을수록 높은 온도저감 효과가 나타나 산림주변지역에서 높은 기후완화서비스가 나타났으며, 기후완화 서비스의 수혜자 인구를 고려한 생태계서비스 평가에서는 수혜인구의 밀도가 높은 서울 도심지역에서높은 서비스가 나타났다. 기후변화에 따른 산림 생장량 변화를 반영하여 산림의 기후완화 생태계서비스의변화를 평가한 결과, 평균적으로 약 33%의 서비스 감소가 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 도시림을 관리하기위해서 산림청에서 제시하고 있는 공급기능기반의 6가지(자연환경보전, 산지재해방지, 목재생산, 산림휴양, 생활환경보전, 수원함양) 기능구분 외에 서비스를 수혜하는 수요자 기반의 기능 및 서비스가 평가의 필요성을 제시한다. 이는 기존의 산림의 공급기능기반의 평가에서 간과할 수 있는, 자연기능은 낮지만 수혜를 받는시민들이 많아 높은 서비스 가치를 갖는 산림을 재평가하고 올바른 관리 계획을 수립하는데 기여할 수 있을것으로 판단된다.

Towards Sustainability of Tropical Forests: Implications for Enhanced Carbon Stock and Climate Change Mitigation

Mizanur Rahman,Mahmuda Islam,Rofiqul Islam,Norul Alam Sobuj 강원대학교 산림과학연구소 2017 Journal of Forest Science Vol.33 No.4

Tropical forests constitute almost half of the global forest cover, account for 35% of the global net primary productivity and thereby have potential to contribute substantially to sequester atmospheric CO2 and offset climate change impact. However, deforestation and degradation lead by unsustainable management of tropical forests contribute to the unprecedented species losses and limit ecosystem services including carbon sequestration. Sustainable forest management (SFM) in the tropics may tackle and rectify such deleterious impacts of anthropogenic disturbances and climatic changes. However, the existing dilemma on the definition of SFM and lack of understanding of how tropical forest sustainability can be achieved lead to increasing debate on whether climate change mitigation initiatives would be successful. We reviewed the available literature with a view to clarify the concept of sustainability and provide with a framework towards the sustainability of tropical forests for enhanced carbon stock and climate change mitigation. We argue that along with securing forest tenure and thereby reducing deforestation, application of reduced impact logging (RIL) and appropriate silvicultural system can enhance tropical forest carbon stock and help mitigate climate change.

위성영상과 임상통계를 이용한 충남해안지역의 기후변화에 따른 임상 변화

김찬수 ( Chan Soo Kim ),박지훈 ( Ji Hoon Park ),장동호 ( Dong Ho Jang ) 한국환경영향평가학회 2011 환경영향평가 Vol.20 No.4

This study analyzes the changes in the surface area of each forest cover, based on temperature data analysis and satellite imagery as the basic methods for the impact assessment of climate change on regional units. Furthermore, future changes in the forest cover are predicted using the double exponential smoothing method. The results of the study have shown an overall increase in annual mean temperature in the studied region since 1990, and an especially increased rate in winter and autumn compared to other seasons. The multi-temporal analysis of the changes in the forest cover using satellite images showed a large decrease of coniferous forests, and a continual increase in deciduous forests and mixed forests. Such changes are attributed to the increase in annual mean temperature of the studied regions. The analysis of changes in the surface area of each forest cover using the statistical data displayed similar tendencies as that of the forest cover categorizing results from the satellite images. Accordingly, rapid changes in forest cover following the increase of temperature in the studied regions could be expected. The results of the study of the forest cover surface using the double exponential smoothing method predict a continual decrease in coniferous forests until 2050. On the contrary, deciduous forests and mixed forests are predicted to show continually increasing tendencies. Deciduous forests have been predicted to increase the most in the future. With these results, the data on forest cover can be usefully applied as the main index for climate change. Further qualitative results are expected to be deduced from these data in the future, compared to the analyses of the relationship between tree species of forest and climate factors.

Prediction of forest fire risk according to climate change in Bhutan using a shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenario and random forest

김준,노민우,Tshering Kinley,이우균,WANGSONAMWANGYEL 한국기후변화학회 2023 한국기후변화학회지 Vol.14 No.4

Forest fires destroy millions of forest acres globally, damaging ecosystem services, emitting carbon into the atmosphere, and causing billions of dollars in socio-economic losses, including loss of life. Bhutan, despite its small size, is grappling with forest fires compounded by climate extremes, a remote location, and a lack of preparedness. Under such conditions, it is important to develop policy, technology, and action to respond to forest fires based on scientific research. This study used the Random Forest model (RF) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) approach to create a model for predicting forest fires in Bhutan by considering climate data, spatial data, and forest fire occurrence factors. The RF algorithm was used to analyze the correlations between various input data and predict the change in future forest fire risk in Bhutan. Using SSP scenarios that considered changes due to future population and economic growth, it was possible to predict the risk of forest fires accurately and spatially in Bhutan. The study found that the average forest fire risk was highest during the months of October to January, which are also the dry seasons with low precipitation. However, it also showed high variability across climate change scenarios. SSP scenarios also confirmed the possibility of a significant increase in forest fire risk in the future. The results of this study can be used to support specific policy decisions for forest fire prevention and response in Bhutan and to contribute to the development of forest fire prediction technology in the light of the changing global climate.

산림의 임상구조 결정요인 분석과 기후변화에 따른 임상구조 변화 예측

이홍림 ( Honglim Lee ),권오상 ( Oh Sang Kwon ) 한국환경경제학회 한국자원경제학회 2017 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.26 No.2

본고는 기후변화가 우리나라 산림 구성에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위해 분할자료 회귀분석을 이용하여 임상모형을 구축하였으며, 기후 및 지형과 같은 자연적 요인 외에도 사회 정책적 요인들이 산림 구성에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 또한 구축한 임상모형을 이용하여 기후변화가 미래 우리나라 산림을 어떻게 변화시킬지를 IPCC 시나리오를 바탕으로 예측해보았다. 분석결과 우리나라의 산림 구성은 자연적 요인 못지않게 사회 정책적 요인들의 영향을 크게 받는 것으로 나타났으며, 미래의 모든 기후변화 시나리오하에서 현재보다 침엽수림 비중이 줄어드는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 IPCC의 RCP 8.5에 해당하는 기후변화가 실현될 경우 2090년대까지 전체 산림면적의 약 10% 정도가 침엽수림에서 활엽수림으로 전환될 것으로 예측되었다. 기후변화로 인한 임상변화는 지역별로 상당히 이질적인 결과를 가져올 것으로 보이며, 현재 침엽수림 비중이 상대적으로 낮은 내륙지역의 침엽수림 면적을 더욱 크게 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. This study empirically estimates the impacts of climate change on forest composition in Korea using a fractional data regression model, and forecasts the change in forest composition in the 2040s and 2090s based on the IPCC climate change scenarios. Unlike the forest science studies that incorporate mostly only ecological variables as the determinants of forest composition, we take into account regional level socio-economic and forest management variables as well. Our estimation results found that not only environmental factors but also socio-economic and forest management related factors strongly affect the composition of Korean forest. Based on the estimation results and IPCC scenarios on climate change, we predict that the share of currently dominant coniferous forest will decline in the future under all scenarios. About 10% of total forest area is likely to be converted from coniferous forest into broadleaved forest until 2090s under the scenario RCP 8.5. It is also predicted that there will be a substantial regional variation in the effects of climate change on forest composition, and the coniferous forests in the inland regions will decline more dramatically.

4분과 : 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 소나무 임부의 재적 추정

김문일 ( Moon Il Kim ),이우균 ( Woo Kyun Lee ),( Gui Shan Gui ),( Hang Nan Yu ),최솔이 ( Sol E Choi ),김창길 ( Chang Gil Kim ),권태성 한국임학회 2014 한국산림과학회지 Vol.103 No.1

본 연구는 우리나라 주요 수종인 소나무림을 대상으로 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 시나리오에 따른 임목 재적의 시·공간적 변이를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 전국 규모의 예측을 위해 5차임상도와 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용하였으며, 기후와 공간의 변이가 임목 생장에 미치는 영향을 반영하기 위해 기상 및 지형인자를 반영한 생장모형을 적용하였다. 모형의 검증을 위해 시, 도별 산림통계와 모형 결과를 비교한 결과, 비교적 높은 적합도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화를 고려하였을 때, 소나무림의 임분 재적은 현재 131 m3/ha에서2050년에는 212.42 m3/ha까지 증가 할 것으로 예측되었으며, 현재의 기후가 유지될 경우에는 221.92 m3/ha까지 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 일부 고산지대를 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 소나무림의 생장률이감소할 것으로 예측되었으며, 특히 해안지역과 남부지역에서 생장률의 감소가 클 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과를 통해 기후변화가 소나무림 생장에 미치는 영향을 시·공간에 따라 정량화 할 수 있었으며, 이는 기후변화 적응을 고려한 산림관리 및 시업계획을 수립하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다. The main purpose of this study is to measure spatio-temporal variation of forest tree volume basedon the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenario, targeting on Pinus densiflora forests which is the main tree species in South Korea. To estimate nationwide scale, 5th forest type map and National Forest Inventory data were used. Also, to reflect the impact of change in place and climate on growth of forest trees, growth model reflecting the climate and topography features were applied. The result of the model validation, which compared the result of the model with the forest statistics of different cities and provinces, showed a high suitability. Considering the continuous climate change, volume of Pinus densiflora forest is predicted to increase from 131 m3/ha at present to 212.42 m3/ha in the year of 2050. If the climate maintains as the present, volumeis predicted to increase to 221.92 m3/ha. With the climate change, it is predicted that most of the region, except for some of the alpine region, will have a decrease in growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest. The growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest will have a greater decline, especially in the coastal area and the southern area. With the result of this study, it will be possible to quantify the effect of climate change on the growth of Pinusdensiflora forest according to spatio-temporal is possible. The result of the study can be useful in establishing the forest management practices, considering the adaptation of climate change.

Towards Sustainability of Tropical Forests: Implications for Enhanced Carbon Stock and Climate Change Mitigation

Rahman, Mizanur,Islam, Mahmuda,Islam, Rofiqul,Sobuj, Norul Alam Institute of Forest Science 2017 Journal of Forest Science Vol.33 No.4

Tropical forests constitute almost half of the global forest cover, account for 35% of the global net primary productivity and thereby have potential to contribute substantially to sequester atmospheric $CO_2$ and offset climate change impact. However, deforestation and degradation lead by unsustainable management of tropical forests contribute to the unprecedented species losses and limit ecosystem services including carbon sequestration. Sustainable forest management (SFM) in the tropics may tackle and rectify such deleterious impacts of anthropogenic disturbances and climatic changes. However, the existing dilemma on the definition of SFM and lack of understanding of how tropical forest sustainability can be achieved lead to increasing debate on whether climate change mitigation initiatives would be successful. We reviewed the available literature with a view to clarify the concept of sustainability and provide with a framework towards the sustainability of tropical forests for enhanced carbon stock and climate change mitigation. We argue that along with securing forest tenure and thereby reducing deforestation, application of reduced impact logging (RIL) and appropriate silvicultural system can enhance tropical forest carbon stock and help mitigate climate change.

Forest monitoring in times of climate change from the Asian view

신준환,천정화 한국산림과학회 2011 Forest Science And Technology Vol.7 No.2

Climate, as a source of energy and water, acts as the primary control for forest ecosystems and forest ecosystems provide significant feedback to climate. Asian forests from taiga to tropical regions are very diverse and unique as compared with other continents. To establish a good forest monitoring system in times of climate change for Asian regions, it is necessary to monitor forest information from a national forest inventory to changes in species composition by air temperature increase. Furthermore, a global forest monitoring system has to be established. It is also recommended to monitor symbiotic relationships, traditional knowledge and valuation trends.