From Apocalypse to Extinction: Korean Science Fiction and Extinction Discourse in the 2020s

복도훈 건국대학교 아시아・디아스포라연구소 2023 International Journal of Diaspora&Cultural Critici Vol.13 No.2

This paper examines the discourse of extinction in Korean science fiction(SF) in the 2020s. In this paper, extinction is situated in two contexts: climate change and artificial intelligence(AI). First, Anthropocene extinction is the result of the human capacity for detrimental planetary action, including accelerating the extinction of species, including their owns. Second, mechanical evolutionary extinction is the result of less improved forms of humans social evolution into better forms through technology. In the 2020s, extinction emerged as a thematic lexicon to replace the apocalyptic motif in Korean SF. This paper analyzes antihumanism and antinatalism as forms of extinction discourse in two SF works, Second Moon by Choi Yi-soo and Farewell by Kim Young-ha. The antihumanism in Second Moon is a counter-discourse to the human regeneration project carried out by AI. In contrast, the antinatalism of Farewell is a campaign of human extinction carried out by AI. The narratives of both novels reject antihumanism and antinatalism. However, it is important to note that the extinction discourse in both novels stems from a self-criticism of humans’ planetary capacity to destroy ecosystems. Climate change and AI are the kind of “X-Risks” that could make the extinction of beings(including humankind), possible. In the 2020s, Korean SF has been mutating through various imaginaries and discourses of extinction. Yet because extinction is a universal vocabulary that refers to the common fate and survival of humans and non-humans, it needs to be conceptualized and imagined with careful intentionality.

지방소멸과 지방자치법제의 역할

최철호 한국법제연구원 2023 법제연구 Vol.- No.65

The term "local 方消滅" is one of the most widely used terms in our society, includingpolitics, society, and economy, as well as in the field of local autonomy. Since the term "localextinction" is stipulated in the law, it can be said to be a statutory term, but there is noregulation that defines the concept of local extinction, and the area where the populationdecreases is regarded as a local extinction area and supports it. The first appearance of the word "local extinction" came from the "Masda Report"submitted in Japan in 2014 at the Japan Creation Conference, where Hiroya Masuda (增⽥寬也), the former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, is the chief. In Japan, the word "population decline" was used in politics, local public organizations, andacademia in the sense that the population of the metropolitan area centered on Tokyo woulddecrease due to a black hool phenomenon that sucked in the local population, but the term"local extinction" was used in the book "Stop Low Fertility and Local Vitalization StrategyReport" (Masuda Report) published by the 議 of Japan's 創 Congregation on May 8, 2014 and"Local Extinction" by Hiroya Masuda. The Masuda report published a study showing thatJapan could lose half of its local governments as the local population drops sharply over thenext 25 years. If the current population decline is between 2014 and 2040, for example, ifthe female population between the ages of 20 and 39 decreases to less than 50%, 896areas, or 49.8% of Japan's cities, towns, and villages, will disappear. At the time, the Masudareport said that 896 municipalities were "possibly extinct cities," which shocked residents,local governments, and the central government as 49.8% of the entire municipalities, ornearly half of them, were "extinguishable." Faced with the problem of local extinction of theMasuda Report, the Abe administration set local creation as the top priority of its policy whenit launched its second cabinet in December 2012 and enacted and implemented the Village,People, and Job Creation Act in 2014 (referred to as the Local Creation Act). Similar to Japan's Masuda report, Korea also developed a local extinction index by theKorea Employment Information Service and based on it, 228 basic local governments acrossthe country are classified into local extinction risk areas and local extinction high-risk areas. According to this, as of February 2023, 118 out of 228 local governments nationwide were atrisk of extinction, accounting for 52% of the total cities, counties, and districts, and 51 wereat high risk of extinction with an extinction index value of less than 0.2. Now, local extinction is not a distant future story, but a real problem that will come soon,so if organizations, organizations, policies, financial investments, and legal systems are notprepared to diagnose and cope with the causes and problems of local extinction, there is arisk that local extinction will soon spread to a situation that will lead to a crisis in the country. 지방소멸이라는 단어가 처음 등장한 것은 2014년 일본의 전 총무대신 마스다 히로야(增⽥寬也)가 좌장으로 있는 일본 창성회의에서 제출한 '마스다 리포트(보고서)'에서 비롯되었다. 일본에서도 전후 동경일극집중이 초래한 인구감소 즉 동경을 중심으로 하는 수도권이 지방의 인구를 빨아들이는 블랙훌 현상으로 지방의 인구가 감소한다는 의미에서 인구감소라는 단어가 정치,지방공공단체, 학계에서 사용되고 있었지만, 지방소멸이라는 용어는 2014년 5월 8일 日本創成會議(마스다 히로야 좌장)의 인구감소문제 검토분과회에서 발간한 'stop 저출산·지방활력전략 보고서'(마스다 리포트)와 이어서 출간된 마스다 히로야의 '지방소멸'이라는 저서에서 사용함으로써 통용되게 되었다. 마스다 보고서에서는 일본이 향후 25년간 지방인구가 급감하면서 절반의 지자체가 소멸할 수 있다는 연구 결과를 발표하였다. 예를들면 2014년부터 2040년 사이에 현재의 인구감소 추세로라면, 20~39세의 여성인구가 50% 이하로 감소하게 되면 일본의 시・정・촌의 49.8%에 달하는 896개 지역이 소멸할 것이라고 했다. 당시 마스다 보고서에서는 896개의 시정촌이 ‘소멸가능성도시’라고 하였는데 이것은 시정촌 전체의 49.8%, 즉 반수 가까이의 시정촌이 ‘소멸가능’한 것으로되어 해당 시정촌에 사는 주민, 지방자치단체는 물론 중앙정부에도 큰 충격을 주었다. 이러한 마스다 리포트의 지방소멸이라는 문제에 직면한 아베 정권은 2012년부터 12월 제2차 내각을 출범하면서 지역창생을 정책의 최우선의 목표로 설정하고 이를 위하여 2014년 “마을·사람·일(자리) 창생법” (이하 ‘지방창생법’이라 한다.)을 제정하여 시행하게 되었는데, “마을·사람·일 창생법”은 '지방창생'에 관련된 정책들(특히 성장전략, 지방제도, 국토계획)을 수립하고 시행하는 것이다. 우리나라도 일본의 마스다 보고서와 유사하게 한국고용정보원에서 지방소멸지수를 개발하고그에 근거하여 전국의 228개의 기초지방자치단체를 지방소멸위험지역, 지방소멸고위험지역으로구분하여 이를 발표하고 있다. 이에 따르면 2023년 2월 현재 전국 228개 지방자치단체 중 소멸위험지역은 118곳으로 전체 시군구의 52%를 차지하였으며, 특히 소멸위험지수 값이 0.2 미만인 소멸고위험지역도 51곳이나 되었다. 이러한 문제의식하에 본고에서는 지방소멸의 개념과 원인의 분석, 일본의 지방창생법, 지방창생전략, 관계인구개념 등을 검토하여 우리나라에 도입가능한 시사점 도출, 지방소멸에 대응하는 지방자치법, 인구감소지역지원특별법 등의 법령, 지역소멸대응기금, 생활인구개념 등을 검토하는 것으로 한다.

무조건 자극의 강도가 파블로프 공포 조건화의 즉각소거 후 재발결함에 미치는 영향

조경임,최준식 한국인지및생물심리학회 2020 한국심리학회지 인지 및 생물 Vol.32 No.2

Impaired extinction following fear conditioning in the immediate past, dubbed immediate extinction deficit (IED) has been repeatedly demonstrated in animal models. However, whether IED is a universal phenomenon across all different intensities of the US is unknown. In the current experiment, we tested the effect of strong vs. mild footshock US during acquisition on the subsequent extinction, retention and renewal. In Exp.1, rats were subjected to Pavlovian fear conditioning with a tone conditioned stimulus (CS, 5kHz, 80dB, ITI between 45~75sec) and footshock unconditioned stimulus (US, 1.0mA). Then they were divided into four groups: immediate extinction (IE); delayed extinction (DE); immediate no-extinction (IE_NO); delayed no-extinction (DE_NO). IE and DE received 30 CS-only trials 10 min or 24 hr after the conditioning, respectively. IE_NO and DE_NO received the same treatment except for the CS. Twenty-four hours later, they all received retention test which was composed of 10 trials of CS-only trials. On the next day, they received renewal test in a different context and received 10 trials of CS-only trials. Consistent with previous studies, Only DE showed reliable extinction and renewal. IE showed extinction deficit. In Exp.2, the same experimental protocol was employed except for the shock intensity (0.4mA). In contrast to the results from Exp.1, both IE and DE showed a reliable extinction. However, only DE showed renewal effect. Taken together, the current result suggests that extinction process (consolidation of extinction memory) following Pavlovian conditioning with weak shock might involve different neural mechanism from that with strong shock. 파블로프 공포 조건화의 소거에 영향을 미치는 여러 요인 중 학습-소거간 간격의 효과에 대한 연구가 주목을 받아왔다. 특히 학습-소거 간 간격이 짧을 경우 소거 학습에서의 결함, 즉 즉각소거 결함(immediate extinction deficit; IED)이 일어난다. 한편, IED를 조절하는 요인들 특히, 무조건 자극(unconditioned stimulus; US)의 강도에 관한 연구는 초기 단계이다. 본 연구에서는 US 강도에 따른 IED 효과를 검증하고자 소거된 반응이 다른 맥락에서 다시 나타나는 재발(renewal)현상을 중심으로 실험 결과를 얻었다. 실험 1에서, 실험동물들은 소리 조건 자극(conditioned stimulus: CS)과 강한(1mA) 발바닥 전기 충격 무조건 자극(unconditioned stimulus: US)으로 공포 조건화 학습을 받았다. 이후, 실험동물들은 소거학습 시점 및 자극 제시 여부에 따라 4집단으로 나뉘었다: 즉각소거 집단(immediate extinction; IE), 지연소거 집단(delayed extinction; DE), 즉각무소거 집단(immediate no-extinction; IE_NO), 지연무소거 집단(delayed no-extinction; DE_NO). IE 집단과 DE 집단은 공포 조건화 학습 후, 10분 혹은 24시간 후에 새로운 맥락에서 CS에 30차례 노출되었고 IE_NO 집단과 DE_NO 집단은 CS없이 맥락에만 노출되었다. 공포조건화 학습 48시간 후 CS에 대한 공포 반응을 측정하는 보유(retention test)검사를 받았다. 보유 검사를 받은 지 24시간 후, 맥락을 바꾸어 CS에 대한 공포반응을 측정하는 재발검사를 받았다. 실험 결과 오직 DE 집단만이 공포의 소거 및 재발을 보여주었고 IE 집단에서는 소거가 이루어지지 않았다. 실험 2에서는 실험 1과 동일한 실험 패러다임을 사용하되 약한 US(0.4mA)를 사용하였다. 실험1에서의 결과와 다르게, IE 집단과 DE 집단 모두 새로운 환경에서 CS에 대한 공포기억의 소거가 이루어졌다. 흥미롭게도 DE 집단은 소거된 공포의 재발을 보였으나 IE 집단은 소거된 공포의 재발이 나타나지 않았다. 즉각소거 후 재발결함(immediate extinction renewal deficit; IRD)이 나타났다. 이 결과는 IRD는 US의 강도에 따라 소거 기억이 저장되는 신경생물학적 메커니즘이 다를 수 있음을 시사한다.

농촌의 마을소멸지수 개발 및 적용 - 충청남도를 대상으로 -

윤정미,조영재,김진영 한국농촌계획학회 2023 농촌계획 Vol.29 No.3

The sense of crisis regarding regional extinction due to low birth rates and an aging population is expanding. Generally, the local extinction index is used to analyze local extinction. However, it is challenging to diagnose the actual situation of village extinction risk in rural areas, even though the regional extinction index can be analyzed in units such as Si-Gun-Gu and Eup-Myeon-Dong. This difficulty arises because the regional extinction index solely relies on natural population growth indicators (elderly population and female population aged 20-39). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a village extinction index that can identify the disappearance of rural villages. Additionally, the aim is to apply the developed indicators to the village (administrative ri) spatial unit. The existing regional extinction index used only mortality-related indicators as factors for natural population decline and fertility-related indicators as factors for natural population growth. However, the developed village extinction index included not only the factors of natural population change but also incorporated social population growth factors and factors related to the pace of village extinction. This is the key difference between the developed village extinction index and the existing regional extinction index. In this study, the indicators of "total population," "number of young women aged 20-44," "number of elderly population aged 70 or older," and "number of incoming population" were selected to develop a village extinction index. The village extinction index was developed by incorporating both natural population growth indicators and social population growth indicators. The developed village extinction index was applied to administrative villages. This research is expected to provide a more accurate understanding of the current state of rural villages facing extinction.

The Risk of Local Extinction in South Gyeongsang Province

Sung Ho Chung 지역사회학회 2019 지역사회학 Vol.20 No.2

With the effect of population decline in rural areas and concentration of population into large cities, the risks of local extinction have a great deal of discussion in Japan. The ‘local extinction’ discourse has also attracted public attention in Korea. The purpose of this study is to examine the current situation of local extinction in South Gyeongsang Province using local extinction index and to show prospects for local extinction risk using population projection by city and county in South Gyeongsang Province. As of 2015, seven cities except Milyang have shown that their extinction risk indices are all above 0.5 and beyond. On the other hand, the extinction risk index of county areas except Haman-gun came to a low level, indicating that they are already in a state of extinction. This situation is expected to change significantly by 2035. The city s extinction risk, which was low in 2015, is expected to increase significantly to 2035, putting all 18 cities and counties in South Gyeongsang Province at risk of extinction. The rapid increase in the number of elderly people can be seen as a major factor in increasing the risk of extinction.

지방소멸지수와의 비교 연구를 통한 마을소멸지수의 적용 가능성 검토 연구

윤정미 한국농촌계획학회 2024 농촌계획 Vol.30 No.1

There is a serious risk of regional extinction due to low birth rate and aging in Korea. Accordingly, the regional extinction index is applied to diagnose the extinction status of cities, counties, and districts. However, when the regional extinction index was applied to rural villages, most villages were found to be at ‘high risk of extinction’. There is no differentiation in the level of extinction of rural villages. Therefore, a village extinction index was developed to apply to rural villages. This study applies and compares the existing regional extinction index and the newly developed village extinction index to rural villages. The purpose is to propose an index that can better diagnose the extinction of rural villages. As a research method, the regional extinction index and village extinction index are applied to all villages in Haengjeong-ri villages in South Chungcheong Province. And the adequacy of the index suitable for rural villages is diagnosed. For this purpose, ➂ stage distribution for each two indices, ➂ demographic aspect diagnosis, and ➂ resident awareness survey were analyzed. When the village extinction index was used, the discrimination problems seen in the regional extinction index were overcome. As a result of the demographic analysis, the regional extinction index showed that villages with a population of 200 or more were at ‘high risk of extinction’, but the village extinction index was derived as ‘high risk of extinction’ for villages with underpopulated populations. Lastly, the results of the residents’ awareness survey also showed that the village extinction index was well reflected in the actual situation of rural villages when applied. When the village extinction index was applied to rural villages rather than the regional extinction index, it was found to reflect the actual state of rural extinction better.

지방소멸지수를 이용한 행정리 마을 소멸위험 변화 분석 - 충청남도를 대상으로 -

윤정미 ( Yun Jeong-mi ),조영재 ( Cho Young-jae ) 한국농촌계획학회 2021 농촌계획 Vol.27 No.1

The purpose of this study is to analyze and diagnose the actual state of extinction risk in rural villages by analyzing time series population characteristics and extinction risk index of rural villages(Haengjeong-ri). As a research method, a time series analysis was performed on the ‘population over 65’ and the ‘female population aged 20 to 39’ related to the local extinction index. In addition, the disappearance of Haengjeong-ri village was analyzed using the existing local extinction index. For the study, Haengjeong-ri village-level GIS spatial data was constructed, and population attribute data in 2010, 2015, and 2020 were constructed. In order to derive implications, the change of the ‘high risk of extinction ‘village in the 2020 local extinction index, the distribution of the population of ‘high risk of extinction’ villages by three years, the population analysis of ‘high risk of extinction’ villages continuously from 2010 to 2020, and ‘high risk of extinction’ An analysis of the increase and decrease of the population of the village and the change of the local extinction index of Haengjeong-ri, where the city, county, and towns are located were analyzed. As a result of the analysis of this study, it was found that the number of villages with an aging of more than 50% increased by 2 to 3 times over 10 years. As a result of the analysis of the local extinction index, in 2010, the southwestern and central regions of South Chungcheongnam-do were high-risk extinction areas, but in 2020, all cities except Cheonan and Asan were converted to high risk extinction areas. Research has shown that Chungnam is facing a serious aging and village extinction crisis, and since the disappearance of villages gradually spreads, an initial response policy is needed. This result will be the same not only in Chungcheongnam-do but also in other rural villages. Therefore, in the case of rural villages, it is necessary to analyze and diagnose the Haengjeong-ri village unit, not the Eup-Myeon unit, and a response policy through diagnosis must be prepared urgently.

한국 지방소멸 요인과 극복 방안에 관한 연구 : 머신러닝 방법을 통한 탐색

유한별(Yoo, Han Byeol),탁근주(Tak, Keun Joo),문정승(Mun, Jeong Seung) 한국지방정부학회 2021 지방정부연구 Vol.24 No.4

본 연구는 한국의 시군구 지방자치단체(이하 지자체)의 소멸 위험을 탐색하고, 소멸 위험에 영향을 미치거나 지역의 매력도에 영향을 미치는 요인을 도출한다. 이 분석을 위해, 국가통계포털에서 변수 자료를 수집･구성하고, 각지자체의 인구이동을 반영한 개선 소멸위험지수 도출한다. 해당 소멸위험지수로부터 각 지자체의 소멸위험등급을생성한 후 해당 등급을 벡터 변환한 목표값(target value)과 지자체 별 독립변수를 활용하는 머신러닝 분석 모델을구축한다. 머신러닝 모델은 GBM, RF, XGB 등을 활용하며, 보팅(voting), 앙상블(ensemble) 등 모델의 성능을 향상시키는 방법으로 지자체의 소멸위험등급을 예측하고 분류한다. 이 결과를 통해 소멸위험이 높은 지자체를 도출하며, 해당 지자체의 소멸 위험에 영향을 주는 요인을 판별한다. 분석결과, 본 연구에서 구축한 머신러닝 모델의 예측(prediction) 성능은 약 90% 내외였으며, 68개의 지자체가 소멸 위험이 가장 높은 등급으로 측정되었다. 이러한 소멸위험에 영향을 주는 요인은 인구사회학적 요인, 경제･ 산업적 요인, 문화･의료 시설 등의 편의 요인 등이 영향을 주는 것으로 확인되었다. 결론적으로 본 연구를 통해 향후 소멸위험에 처한 지자체가 지방소멸을 극복하기 위해서는 이러한 경제･산업적요인에 먼저 집중이 필요하며, 해당 요인이 극복된다면 문화･의료시설을 확충하여 지역 매력도를 높이는 것이 중요하다고 볼 수 있다. This study aims to explore the extinction risk of local cities and counties in Korea. For analysis, it uses factors that affect the risk of extinction or the attractiveness of the region. and data is collected and organized in the KOSIS, and then, the improved extinction risk index is derived for local regions by reflecting population movement. the extinction risk index is utilized by dependent variables (target value). and we construct a machine learning analysis model with the independent variables(features) and dependent variables. Machine learning models are GBM, RF, XGB, etc. and they predict and classify local decimation risk in a way that improves the performance of the model with enhancing methods like voting and ensemble. The results derive the local region with the highest risk of extinction and determine the factors that affect the local extinction risk. As a result of the analysis, the prediction performance of the machine learning model built in this study was around 90% and 68 local regions were measured with the highest risk of extinction. Factors affecting these extinction risks were found to affect economic and industrial factors, and convenience factors such as cultural and medical facilities. In conclusion, to overcome local extinction in the future, local governments in danger of extinction need to focus first on these economic and industrial factors improved, and if those factors are overcome, it is important to expand cultural and medical facilities to enhance local attractiveness.

지방자치단체 농촌공동화 실태와 정책 방안

주상현 한국비교정부학회 2020 한국비교정부학보 Vol.24 No.4

(Purpose) Recently, the issue of the extinction of rural areas has become a hot topic in our society. This paper has two research perspectives to study the characteristics of rural communalization. First, the relationship between words was examined through a search for major keywords such as population extinction. Second, by examining the characteristics of rural population extinction in Buan-gun, focusing on demographic factors, this study attempted to suggest a method to solve the problem of rural population extinction. (Design/methodology/approach) The research method is as follows. A total of 605 articles were extracted by searching articles through keyword search for population extinction in major regional media(Jeonbuk Ilbo and Jeonbuk Domin Ilbo) from 2000 to 2020, and network text analysis was performed around the main keywords of these articles to analyze frequency and Degree Centrality. (Findings) The main keywords derived were 53, and the words with the highest frequency were the special law(13), local autonomy(12), preliminary candidates(10), civil servants(7), college students(6), presidents(5), and response to local extinction(5). As a result of the analysis of the extinction of the rural population in Buan-gun, the extinction risk index was very high at 0.23. In addition, there are characteristics such as a decrease in the number of moving-in population, an increase in the difference between the moving-in and moving-out populations, a decrease in the number of population, an increase in vacant houses, a decrease in the number of students and marriages, an increase in the aging rate, a decrease in the female population aged 20-39, and the population aged 0-4. (Research implications or Originality) According to the analysis results, the following implications were suggested. First, Enactment of a special law to overcome the crisis of rural population extinction, second, development of indexes for predicting the extinction of rural areas, third, revitalization of returning villages and seeking strategies to respond to vacant houses in rural areas, fourth, pursuing a creative population reduction strategy, fifth, prevention of young people moving out and implementation of a strong childbirth promotion policy.

김증한 교수의 소멸시효론

윤진수 한국민사법학회 2014 民事法學 Vol.69 No.-

Since the Enactment of the Korean Civil Code in 1958, there has been is a fierce controversy over the legal effect of extinctive prescription. According to the absolute extinction theory, the right which is subject to extinctive prescription ceases to exist by the lapse of prescription period per se. In contrast, the relative extinction theory asserts that the invocation of extinctive prescription by duty beares is necessary for the right to become extinct. Professor Kim Jeunghan had advocated the relative extinction theory for the first time in 1958 against the then prevailing absolute extinction theory. His theory exerted great influence upon the following academic debate and court decisions. Although textual and historical interpretation seem to support the absolute extinction theory, the relative extinction theory is more convincing for the following reasons. From the perspective of systematic interpretation, the absolute extinction theory cannot explain why there should be invocation of extinctive prescription only by duty bearers, not by right holders. It can adequately explained by the relative extinction theory. Furthermore, the relative extinction theory can also be justified by teleological interpretation. The purpose of the extinctive prescription is to protect duty bearers. Therefore, the related decision should be deferred to duty bearers rather than to be made by operation of law. This aim can be achieved by requiring the invocation of extinctive prescription by duty bearers in accordance with the relative extinction theory.