변화관리에 대한 국립중앙도서관 사서의 인식에 관한 연구

노동조 한국비블리아학회 2022 한국비블리아학회지 Vol.33 No.4

This study based on the 8-step strategy model for change management proposed by J. P. Kotter, tried to check the perception and experience about change management of the librarians at National Library of Korea. Also this study aimed to figure out the understanding of each 8-step strategy model. To this end, the concept and process of change management were presented through literature analysis, and survey was conducted targeting 58 librarians of the National Library of Korea. This study drews five results. First, the majority of librarians at National Library of Korea do not know about change management, and they do not have experience in using change management techniques. Second, the period required for the 8-step change management process is 5 years. Third, during the change management stage, librarians’ awareness of the importance of stages 4 and 3 was high. Fourth, there is no difference in the librarians’ perceptions of change management by gender, education, major, and tasks. Fifth, there is a significant difference in the age and service years of the librarian in the 3rd, 4th, and 7th stages of change management. Also there is a significant difference in the position of the librarian at the 1st and 3rd stage of change management, and between librarians’ department and 1st stage of change management. The findings and results of this study can not only raise awareness of change management but also suggest organizational responses to change at individual or organizational level. 본 연구에서는 코터(J. P. Kotter)가 제시한 변화관리의 8단계 전략 모델에 의거하여 국립중앙도서관 사서들의 변화관리에 대한 인식과 경험을 확인하고, 나아가 8단계 전략 모델별 중요도를 파악하였다. 이를 위하여 문헌분석을 통하여 변화관리의 개념과 프로세스를 제시하고, 국립중앙도서관의 사서 58명을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 국립중앙도서관 사서의 절대다수는 변화관리에 대한 인식과 경험이 부족하다. 둘째, 8단계 변화관리과정의 소요 기간은 5년이 적정하다. 셋째, 변화관리 단계 중에는 4단계와 3단계에 대한 사서들의 중요도 인식이 높았다. 넷째, 사서의 성, 학력, 전공, 담당업무별 변화관리의 인식에는 차이가 없다. 다섯째, 사서의 연령과 근속연수는 변화관리의 3단계, 4단계, 7단계에서 유의미한 차이가 있으며, 사서의 직급은 변화관리의 1단계, 3단계에서, 사서의 근무 부서와 변화관리의 1단계 간에는 유의미한 차이가 있다. 본 연구의 과정과 결과는 변화관리에 대한 인식 제고는 물론 변화에 대한 개인 또는 조직 차원의 조직적 대응 방안을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

기후변화에 따른 화학물질 위해성 관리방안 2

박정규,서양원 한국환경연구원 2012 기본연구보고서 Vol.2012 No.-

Research for climate change and the management of chemicals, or the chemical risk associated with the climate change is still in its early stages merely suggesting the limitations of the risk management policy and the needs for further relevant research. This study was conducted to figure out the effects of climate change on the risk of chemicals and identify the work needed to be done for preparing and implementing the risk management. In the second year of this study, first, based on the results of previous studies, substances whose toxicity or exposures can be affected by climate change were defined as ‘chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change``. A total of 215 chemicals were listed as the chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change. They are as follows: (1) 45 metals and heavy metals including zinc, tin, silver, lithium, mercury, nickel, lead, iron, copper, chromium, aluminum, asbestos, cadmium (2) 50 inorganic compounds and other chemicals including bromine, chlorine, carbon, nitrogen, fluorine, sulfur, cyanine elements and their compounds, oxides, and free radicals (3) 120 organic compounds including POPs, PAHs, chlorinated organic compounds, organic brominated compounds, organic fluorine compounds, aromatic compounds, hydrocarbons, dioxins, furans, and aldehydes. The list of the chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change is expected to be useful for selecting chemicals to scrutinize alteration of chemical risk due to climate change by climate factors. Additionally, it can be referenced as basic materials for establishment of various chemicals and climate change management plans. Second, the impacts of climate change on the alteration of the chemical distribution of the media specific fate and sensitivity to the climate factors were confirmed based upon previous studies and using the multimedia fate modeling of some PAHs. Under the A1B scenario, the chemical concentrations were significantly changed in the entire region in certain climate circumstances: the atmospheric concentration was affected by temperature, the atmospheric concentration was affected by wind speed, and the concentration in the water was affected by rainfall. Temperature has resulted a weak but consistent concentration in the soil and sediment. Except Gangwon province, chemicals have shown similar sensitivity across the region, For all other cases except the sensitivity of the atmospheric concentration to the wind speed, which AN showed the greatest sensitivity. The rest of the PAHs were similar in the sensitivity. If you list them by sensitivity order, the result was AN > BaP > PY > BghiP. Environmental concentration change in a specific area caused by climate change varies by the local weather condition, environmental and discharge conditions and it is not governed only by a couple of properties of the target materials. However, it should be kept in mind that qualitative impact of climate change on chemicals shows the same results in the whole region, which means that influence of chemical compounds is important. Regarding the fact that influence is derived from a combination of properties, in-depth research is needed in this area. Meanwhile, the analysis of the deviation of the monthly average concentration of compared to no climate change (NCC) showed that in certain cases, during a short period of time the monthly average concentrations in the air and water are predicted to increase more than 10 times. This suggests that without any change in chemical emissions, climate change is likely to be a serious threat to the health of people and aquatic ecosystems. It is important necessary to identify weather conditions and chemical properties that increase the contamination, and build a system to forecast a likelihood of occurrence of such conditions and develop related precautions and countermeasures. Third, domestic and overseas trends of the chemical management, domestic emission and circulation amount of chemicals, and air, water and soil quality standards in other countries were compared and analyzed for establishment of management measures on the chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change. Among the chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change, 20% of the inorganic compounds and other compounds, 20% of the metals and heavy metals, approximately 23 % of organic compounds are managed by the Korean TCCA. For some of them they are not sufficiently managed compared to other countries. There are some chemicals are not prepared with a sufficient management measures compared to other countries`` management level. These chemicals include inorganic compounds such as nitrite, nitrate, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, and sulfur dioxide, organic compounds including some PAHs, POPs, and biocide, metals such as nickel and iron. Approximately 17.6% of the chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change are monitored to investigate their domestic emissions. It is necessary to develop reduction plans for these chemicals that account large amount of domestic emissions and consider adding them on the emission survey in the future. Additionally, the domestic circulation amounts of nitrogen and nitrogen compounds, sulfuric acid, polyethylene and polypropylene are much larger than the their amounts in other countries. Thus, it appears that it is indispensable to reinforce the management level and measures for the chemicals. Fourth, this study revealed the limitations of the current chemicals management policy and their implications for chemical risk assessment in terms of risk research, risk management and risk reduction measures. First of all, the paradigm for risk and risk assessment is needed to be changed. To achieve this, it is required to make efforts on applying the characteristics of the domestic climate change to the risk assessment and changing the current paradigm for the chemical risk assessment to a new paradigm which is appropriate for climate change. In terms of chemical risk assessment methods, it is compelling to combine current bottom-up approaches using small-scale experiments and top-down methods to directly evaluate ecological impacts in a large spatial scale. For the exposure assessment, vulnerable groups need to be considered through modeling. In this regard, it is necessary to consider chemical hazard or toxicological information, structure, physicochemical properties, and molecular weight for deriving the necessity of the management or managing the chemicals. Risk research should also be proceeded in the direction of identifying the junction between the long-term hazardous chemicals management policies, climate change and changes in environmental factors and accordingly conducting a variety of research to solve various problems which seem to be faced in the future. As risk management plans for climate change, this paper presented some of UNEP`s POPs management policies for climate change which can be suitable for the domestic need, and a global legally-binding instrument on mercury currently in process, a lead management plan for climate change and the status and implications of the management plans for products such as sunscreens, flame retardants and biocides. Also, by comparing the domestic air, water and soil quality to the corresponding foreign standards to reveal improvements needed in domestic management policies. Policies for vulnerable groups such as children, elderly, and workers were also proposed. Through this study, it was confirmed that environmental factors respond to climate change and regional condition can also alter their sensitivity can be altered by regional condition. In addition, it was indicated that toxicity or environmental fate of the same chemical varies due to environmental factors. Therefore, environmental changes of the emission sources should be considered in the process of setting the emission reduction targets. On the other hand, the list of chemicals for emissions and circulation amount surveys should be expanded to collect various information about usages and environmental release of more chemicals. It is possible that climate change generates demand of new chemicals and affects the current usage patterns of chemicals. Moreover, among the chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change, only a few of the chemicals are on the list of the emission survey. Thus, more chemicals need to be monitored for their emissions circulation amounts with reference to the list of the chemicals suspected to be affected by climate change if climate change adaptation policies contain hazardous chemical management policy in the future. Climate change causes ecological, humanistic, social and economic changes which affect the macroscopic chemical transfer. At the microscopic level, a variety of human activities significantly influence the use of chemicals. Therefore, it is essential to improve the existing chemical management plans and ensure the risk management of chemicals to avoid the chemical side effects such as climate change. Accordingly a variety of research and policy development should be done to protect the health of the people including the vulnerable groups from the risks of climate change and chemicals.

전기 비적정 감사의견이 감사인 교체방향과 이익조정에 미치는 영향: 비상장기업의 의견구매

박종일 ( Jong Il Park ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 한국회계학회 2014 회계학연구 Vol.39 No.6

This paper examines earnings management behaviors on changing a auditor depending on the type of prior audit opinions in private companies. Specifically, this study tests whether the non-unqualified opinion from a prior auditor influences auditor change and the level of earnings management measured by discretionary accruals and real earnings management. In addition, this study identifies that a relationship between auditor change and earnings management varies depending on the type of auditors (Big 4 and non-Big 4 audit firm). Prior studies suggest that one of the reasons in switching auditor is the conflicts of interest on conservative or strict auditing procedures and audit firms with low quality are preferred as a changed auditor. However, most studies related to auditor change focus on listed companies and there is little study on the effect of audit opinion on a relationship between auditor change and earnings management in private companies. This paper tries to fill the gap. We examine related three issues in private companies. The first, we test whether private firms with non-unqualified opinion and auditor change tend to shop audit opinion. The second, we test whether private firms with non-qualifies opinion and auditor change tend to manage earnings. In this paper, we measure discretionary accruals using Kothari et al.(2005)``s methodology and real earnings management using Cohen and Zarowin (2011)``s methodology as proxies for earnings management. The third, we test whether the earnings management is associated with the direction of auditor change. These issues are based on the general prediction that when firms do not receive an unqualified audit opinion and then switch from a Big 4 to a non-Big 4 audit firm (lower quality auditors), they may be engaging in audit opinion shopping. We also expect that these firms are more likely to engage in aggressive earnings management. To test these predictions, we examine motivations of auditor change using a sample of 8,305 auditor changes in private firm-year observations from 2000 to 2008 and estimate discretionary accruals and real earnings management variables as proxies for earnings management. We set four hypotheses to test the effect of auditor change and opinion shopping on earning management. First of all, we divide the sample into two groups depending on the type of auditor change, that is, Big to small versus small to small. We then investigate a relationship between audit opinion and auditor change. We also investigate a relationship between auditor change and earnings management using different models. Therefore, the subsample is used for the analysis of the first hypothesis while total sample is used for the remaining hypothesis. Several control variables such as size, leverage, cash flows from operations, growth, loss, and so on are included in the model. Empirical findings of this paper are following. First, firms received non-unqualified opinion from Big 4 audit firm in previous year are more likely to engage with non-Big 4 audit firm as a next auditor. However, firms received non-qualified opinion from non-Big 4 audit firm in previous year are indifferent to switch auditor type. This result is consistent with the findings of Davidson III et al. (2005) and suggests that audit opinions in previous year affect choice of auditors next year. Specifically, this finding implies that private firms with non-unqualified opinion tend to prefer auditors with low quality for opinion shopping. Second, among firms switched their external auditors, firms received non-unqualified opinion in previous year are more likely to have high level of discretionary accruals and real earnings management, compared to firms received unqualified opinion. This indicates that receiving non-unqualified opinion motivates firms to change auditors and leads to earnings management. This result is not consistent with prior study with listed companies. Davidson III et al. (2005) find a insignificant relationship between audit opinion and earnings management in listed companies. Third, among firms switched their external auditors, when a firm changes auditor to non-Big 4 audit firm, real earnings management rather than discretionary accruals significantly increases. Our results suggest that these firms may subsequently engage in greater real activities based earnings management. While accrual-based earnings management only affects accrual numbers, real activities based earnings management boosts short-term earnings at the expense of distorting real operations (Roychowdhury 2006). It causes real operations to deviate from their optimal levels, thereby dampening a firm``s ability to generate future cash flows and performance in the long run. It implies that private firms switched from Big audit to non-Big audit firm provide financial statements with low quality. Finally, firms that change a auditor from non-Big 4 audit firm to non-Big 4 audit firm show a higher real earnings management than that of other firms. This result suggests that both type of prior auditor and audit opinions affect a choice of earnings management methods. We extend our analyses by dividing the sample with prior audit opinion and successor auditor type. We also test above analyses with change variables rather than level variables of earnings management again and find identical results. Thus, our results provide a solid evidence that audit opinion affects auditor change and earnings management in private firms. In sum, this paper provides the evidence that both audit opinion in previous year and auditor change influence the level of earnings management. And these findings suggest that private firms may engage in opportunistic behaviors when they change auditors. This paper contributes to related studies by providing the evidence that non-unqualified opinion can affect the level of earnings management and auditor change in private firms. Our empirical findings provide meaningful implications to regulators, academic researchers who interested in private firms``s behaviors on a relationship between auditor change and earnings management, and practitioner.

기후변화에 따른 미세먼지 대기질 변화 추정 및 관련 정책 지원 연구

이승민,최기철,최지원,나건수,이주희,권지수,허선경 한국환경연구원 2020 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2020 No.-

Ⅰ. Background and Necessity of Research 1. Necessity ❏ The air quality problem due to fine particulate matter has not improved dramatically despite efforts to reduce emissions of air pollutants since the 2000s. ㅇ As a result of the continuous implementation of the management policy for fine particulate matter and its precursors, Seoul’s air pollutant emissions and ultrafine particulate matter concentrations continued to decrease until the early 2010s. ㅇ The concentration of ultrafine particulate matter has been increasing since 2013 and then decreased slightly from 2017, but now it tends to be stagnant with fluctuations around the annual mean PM2.5 concentration of 25μg/m3. ❏ There are research attempts to clarify the relationship between fine particulate matter concentration and weather conditions and climate change, but studies to make policy improvements are insufficient. ㅇ Air quality-related studies to date have only been conducted to determine the impact of climate change on air quality or to predict air quality concentrations according to future climate change. Research to draw policy implications by grasping the relationship between air quality and climate change is still inadequate. ㅇ In recent fine particulate matter-related policies, a detailed diagnosis of the possibility of achieving the target concentration presented in the ‘Comprehensive Plan on Fine Dust’ which takes into account the recent weather conditions and nvestigations of the relationship between weather and air quality at various time scales(the seasonal management system and emergency reduction measures) are being carried out it is necessary to grasp the relationship between weather and air quality from various angles according to such change in air management policy and to derive utilization plans for policy development. 2. Research purpose and scope ❏ Analysis of the relationship between weather and climate change and fine particulate matter air quality ㅇ Analysis of mid- to long-term change patterns of fine particulate matter air quality and related meteorological factors ㅇ Analysis of major weather and climate factors affecting the concentration of fine particulate matter ㅇ Analysis of air quality and meteorological relevance of fine particulate matter in various time scales (annual average, seasonal average, high concentration cases, etc.) ㅇ Investigation of the mechanisms related to climate change and fine particulate matter air pollution ㅇ Verification of analysis results and analysis of policy implications ❏ Calculation of contributions of meteorological changes to fine particulate matter concentration and forecasts of changes in fine particulate matter pollution due to climate change ㅇ Analysis of the contribution of meteorological changes to the fine particulate matter concentration based on the fixed emission-weather change model ㅇ Development of a meteorological index for the impact of fine particulate matter and verification of the predictability for forecasting fine particulate matter air quality in the future climate ㅇ Establish the modeling base for forecasting fine particulate matter air quality in the future climate ㅇ Prediction of fine particulate matter concentrations reflecting climate change and emission reduction targets according to future climate scenarios ㅇ Verification of analysis results and analysis of policy implications Ⅱ. Relationship between Ultrafine Particulate Matter Concentration and Weather Conditions: Analysis of the Annual Average Levels 1. Annual average fine particulate matter concentration and changes in meteorological factors ㅇ The concentration of ultrafine particulate matter in 2019 increased again, shifting from the deceasing trend of three years since 2016. ㅇ Compared to the previous year, the weather conditions in 2019 created an unfavorable environment for the concentration of fine particulate matter overall, with the increase in temperature, decrease of wind speed, and decrease in precipitation. 2. Confirming the contribution of weather changes to the annual average fine particulate matter concentration ❏ Changes in the annual average ultrafine particulate matter concentration by region due to weather changes compared to 2016 ㅇ After 2012, most regions saw meterological conditions that increased the concentration of ultrafine particulate matter. Taking a look at each region, most regions exhibited similar changes in terms of the concentration level of ultrafine particulate matter; for a certain period of time, however, different trends were observed by region. ❏ Contributions of weather and other(non-weather) factors to concentration compared to 2016 ㅇ Before 2012, the contribution by non-weather factors was dominant, but then it showed a tendency to gradually decrease. Since 2012, the overall concentration has been stagnant without any obvious change in the weather and non-weather factors. ㅇ According to these results, before 2012, non-weather factors such as changes in domestic and foreign air pollutant emissions were the leading cause for changes in fine particulate matter(weather impact was relatively low), and after 2012, it can be thought that it is hard for people to feel the changes in the concentration which occur due to emission reduction. Ⅲ. The Relationship between Ultrafine Particulate Matter Concentration and Weather Conditions: Seasonal and Monthly Analysis 1. Analysis of changes in wind speed by season and the contribution of weather changes to fine particulate matter concentration during the recent period ❏ Changes in wind speed by season and the number of days with stagnant air ㅇ Wind speed over the last 20 years(2001~2019) has shown a tendency to decrease in all seasons since 2014, especially in winter. ❏ Analysis of the contribution of weather changes to the average concentration of fine particulate matter by season based on the simulation model of fixed emissions-weather changes ㅇ The contribution of meteorological conditions to fine particulate matter concentration was analyzed based on the simulation where a fixed amount of emissions and weather changes were applied for the period of the last 20 years. ㅇ Compared to 2016, the changes in PM2.5 concentration have been relatively small in winter since 2012(this tends to be the opposite in other seasons); in terms of the degree of fluctuation of particulate matter concentration by season, the weather effects in summer have the widest range of fluctuation while winter shows the narrowest range. ㅇ In the case of changes in the concentration of each season, the concentration of ultrafine particulate matter tended to increase in most seasons(excluding autumn) due to weather factors. ㅇ When looking at the rates of increase and decrease of the concentration of ultrafine particulate matter by period P1(2005~2012) and P2(from 2013 onwards, the weather in the period P2 acted as a bad condition for ultrafine particulate matter air quality compared to the previous period, and the range of change in concentrations due to weather factors was relatively small. 2. Analysis of changes in ultrafine particulate matter concentration and the contribution of weather changes under the seasonal management system ❏ Changes in the concentration of ultrafine particulate matter by region under the seasonal management system ㅇ The concentration of ultrafine particulate matter tended to reach the lowest level in December and the highest level in March during the seasonal management period, and the concentration rapidly increased from the end of 2018 to March 2019, and then decreased rapidly(the lowest in the last 5 years). ㅇ Fixed emission-weather change simulation results: The weather conditions in 2020 are favorable compared to the previous year, but compared to the recent period of 2016-2019 overall, they are at a modest level. In terms of the average rate of change in the average monthly fine particulate matter concentration in Korea, weather conditions in March are especially favorable with the low concentration of ultrafine particulate matter compared to 2017-2019. 3. Analysis of the conditions by weather factor during the seasonal management period of 2020 ❏ Wind(wind direction, wind speed), temperature, and precipitation changes over the period 2015-2020 ㅇ In the case of wind, strong winds from the east were predominant in 2020, which is favorable for both direction and speed. ㅇ Temperatures were the lowest in 2017-2018 and the highest in 2020, which means it was a very unfavorable weather condition for 2020. ㅇ In the case of precipitation, it was low in March 2020 during the past five years, but the highest rainfalls were recorded in January and February, which were determined as unfavorable conditions for March 2020 and favorable conditions for January and February. 4. Estimation of changes in non-meteorological factors : domestic and international emission reductions ❏ Trend and cause analysis of changes in ultrafine particulate matter concentration compared to the seasonal management period ㅇ In the case of the ultrafine particulate matter concentrations observed during the seasonal management period, it was 31μg/m³ in 2016-2017, 30μg/m³ in 2017-2018, 33μg/m³ in 2018-2019, and 25μg/m³ in 2019-2020, all of which are higher than the average concentration range. ㅇ Simulation results of fixed emission-weather change: Weather conditions in both 2016 and 2017 contributed to the increase in fine particulate matter concentration, and the decrease in concentration due to non-meteorological factors was greater than the increase in concentration due to weather factors. ❏ Estimation of non-weather factors(reduction of domestic emissions) among causes of fine particulate matter concentration variability in simulation results ㅇ Traffic volume in the Seoul metropolitan area tends to decrease during the 2020 season management period compared to 2019(Hangang-daero 1,181 →1,020 thousand vehicles per day, Cheonggyecheon-ro and Jongno 920 →845 thousand vehicles per day, Gonghang-daero 963→955 thousand vehicles per day, based on the average of traffic volume by January-March), and while the PM_2.5 concentrations measured by two monitoring networks have not much difference in 2020, the PM2.5 concentrations measured by the roadside monitoring networks were generally higher than those measured by the urban air monitoring networks in 2019(Hangang-daero 43μg/m³ → Jung District 35μg/m³, Cheonggyecheon-ro 39μg/m³ →Jongno District 34μ g/m³, Jongno 36μg/m³ →Jongno District 34μg/m³, Gonghang-daero 44μg/m³ →Gangseo-gu 39μg/m³ in 2019). ㅇ The sharp drop in the ultrafine particulate matter concentration compared to the recent period is considered to be cased by one of the non-weather factors due to the decrease in domestic emissions, such as a decrease in traffic volume in urban areas and a decrease in PM_2.5 concentrations observed. ❏ Estimation of non-weather factors(international emission reductions) among causes of fine particulate matter concentration variability in simulation results ㅇ The changes in air quality in Korea and China during the 2016-2020 period confirmed that air quality around Wuhan City improved around February 2020(AOD in February and March decreased of 15.4% and 17.2%, respectively, compared to 2019), which can be attributed to plant shutdowns and traffic reduction in China due to the coronavirus. Ⅳ. Relationship between UltraFine Particulate Matter Concentration and Weather Conditions: Case Analysis of High Concentrations 1. Analysis of the change in the pattern of high fine particulate matter concentration ❏ Changes in the annual frequency, intensity, and the number of days with high concentrations of fine particulate matter ㅇ In terms of the frequency of high concentration cases of ultrafine particulate matter in Seoul, the number of days with high concentration cases in the P1 period when air quality steadily improved decreases, but the number of occurrences in the P2 period repeatedly increases and decreases. ㅇ The frequency of long-term high concentration cases during the period when air quality improved(P1), but the frequency of long-term high concentration cases increases after the recent period of 2017(P2). ❏ Changes in the frequency of high concentration cases by season ㅇ The total numbers of high concentration cases in the P1 and P2 periods are 575 days and 436 days, respectively, and the average annual occurrences are 71.9 days and 62.3 days, respectively, with the overall occurrence of high concentration cases slightly decreasing. ㅇ Comparing the numbers of seasonal occurrences, the proportion of occurrences in spring(26.5%→36.2%) and winter(33.0% →39.2%) increased and the proportion of occurrences in summer(21.0%→13.1%) and autumn(19.5%→11.5%) decreased during P2 compared to the P1 period. ㅇ It is estimated that the wind speed in winter and spring has recently greatly decreased compared to summer and autumn seasons, creating favorable conditions for the generation of high concentrations of ultrafine particulate matter. 2. Weather conditions affecting the occurrence of high concentration cases of ultrafine particulate matter ❏ Characteristics of meteorological fields on the date of occurrence of high concentration of ultra fine particulate matter ㅇ In recent years(P2) high pressure over Eurasia has weakened, mid-latitude high pressure over the Korean peninsula and Asia has been strengthened, and noticeable changes have been made such as high pressure over Alaska and the Aleutian low pressure. ㅇ he weakening of Ural Blocking has weakened west winds over East Asia causing air stagnation and this results in high concentration cases of fine particulate matter; also, the cyclonic deviations over the northern part of Japan prevents the anticyclonic deviations over Korea from passing, resulting in long-term high concentrations of fine particulate matter. ㅇ The recent rise in temperature and air pressure in Alaska and the eastern part of the Bering Sea may have caused air stagnation near the Korean Peninsula, contributing to the increase in concentration and the prolonged high concentration. 3. A Study on the relationship between climate change and high fine particulate matter concentration cases on the Korean Peninsula ❏ Effect of large-scale changes in the weather field on fine particulate matter from a climate perspective ㅇ Despite the recent decrease in emissions on the Korean Peninsula, the number of high concentrations of fine particulate matter has increased since 2013, and the causes for this include various changes in weather fields. ㅇ The increased concentration of fine particulate matter over the Korean peninsula may be attributed to the strengthened Aleutian Low following a reduction in geopotential height of the North Pacific which results from the decrease in Arctic sea ice, or the weakened high pressure over the upper part of Eurasia and the strengthened high pressure over the upper part of the Northeast Asia, led by the decreased sea ice in the Barents Sea. ㅇ The change in sea ice area is closely related to warm currents in Alaska and other regions, so the high concentration cases may have increased as fine particulate matter stays on the Korean Peninsula for a long time resulting from the decrease in Arctic sea ice during the P2 period due to the strengthening of the Aleutian Low. ㅇ Changes in Arctic sea ice and large-scale weather systems due to the recent warming may have a significant impact on the occurrence of the long-lasting high-concentration fine particulate matter cases in Korea. Ⅴ. Conclusion and Policy Implications ❏ Need to supplement current fine particulate matter related policies ㅇ As a result of confirming the contribution of meteorological changes to the concentration of ultrafine particulate matter through fixed emission-weather change modeling for the last 20 years, the recent contributions of meteorological factors to the concentration of fine particulate matter is relatively similar to that of non-weather factors. As such, it is necessary to consider climate change as well as emission reduction in air quality management. ㅇ In order to achieve the goal of the comprehensive fine particulate matter plan, it is necessary to set specific goals such as strengthening the emission reduction target amount and presenting a certain level of the concentration range in consideration of the current situation, which is relatively sensitive to the effects of the weather. ㅇ When evaluating the performance of domestic policy, it is necessary to evaluate the effect of the weather together and evaluate the policy in an accurate and correct way and seek improvement points. ㅇ Follow-up studies on mechanisms related to climate change and air quality should be continuously conducted, and air quality forecasts and air management targets need to be set in consideration of weather-related seasonal and mid-term forecasts.

북한의 산림복원과 기후변화가 물관리 취약성에 미치는 영향과 정책방향 연구(Ⅲ)

전동진,김익재,이문환,명수정,서승범,김예인,조을생,김수빈 한국환경연구원 2021 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2021 No.-

Ⅰ. Introduction 1. Research background and objectives □ Background of the research ○ Floods that occur annually due to climate change cause not only large-scale casualties, but also a decrease in food production due to flooding in agricultural areas. Food security is weak and we are experiencing chronic food shortages. ○ Deforestation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is pointed out as the cause of the much increased frequency and scale of repeated water disasters due to the vulnerability of the DPRK’s water management conditions and the effects of climate change. ○ Deforestation and climate change not only increase damage from water disasters, but also greatly affect the operation and management of most dams in the DPRK that are operated to secure water for power generation or agriculture. ○ Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the vulnerability of water management from the perspective of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus that can overcome water disasters, food shortages, and energy shortages, and to draw up a plan for inter-Korean cooperation through analysis of the quantity required for each purpose of use, such as domestic water, agricultural water, power generation water and so on, and analysis of the status of related infrastructure. ○ As inter-Korean environmental cooperation projects to address the vulnerability of water management in the DPRK differs depending on the exchange conditions, it is necessary to draw up environmental cooperation tasks at the WEF Nexus level taking into account changes in the exchange conditions between the two Koreas. □ Objectives of the research ○ It aims to set the direction for water management and environmental cooperation in the DPRK that ensures sustainability and a virtuous cycle of water utilization and to plan cooperation tasks, taking into account 1) changes in hydrology due to climate change and reforestation, 2) the impact of water management on the WEF nexus by element and their interactions, and 3) conditions for exchange and cooperation according to sanctions against the DPRK and the COVID-19 situation.. 2. Research structure □ This report presents the third-year study results in the three-year research project. Ⅱ. Current Status of Water Management in the DPRK and Domestic and International Cooperation Trends 1. Analysis of the DPRK’s Water Disaster, Forest, and Climate □ Status of water disasters ○ Floods in the DPRK are mostly in the form of river flooding, and the low-lying areas in the south such as Gangwon-do, Hwanghae-do, Pyongyang, and Nampo are particularly vulnerable, especially in areas where forests are damaged. ○ Since flood prevention facilities are insufficient and most of the dams are operated for hydroelectric power generation, the flood control capacity is poor, making the flood control system generally weak. ○ According to the analysis of extreme rainfall in the future, the maximum daily rainfall with a 100-year frequency is expected to continue to increase. ○ Droughts in the DPRK are mostly caused by a decrease in precipitation, and the drought damage is becoming worse due to abnormally high temperatures, aging and a shortage of irrigation facilities, forest clearing, and difficulty in supplying electricity, and there is also a water shortage problem. ○ According to the drought analysis by climate change scenario, it is predicted that the greater the temperature increase is, the greater the impact will be in the northern regions with low precipitation, which will lead to frequent exposure to drought events and a high risk of prolonged extreme drought. □ Status of forests ○ With the economy seriously deteriorating in the 1980s, the DPRK started overusing their forest resources, causing severe damage, and the forest area has been continuously decreasing since then. ○ At the end of the 1980s, the proportion of forests was 74.95%, but at the end of the 2010s, it was estimated to be 59.5%. ○ The main cause of deforestation in the DPRK is the conversion of forests to agricultural land, and the mountainous areas of the DPRK which have a steep slope, are not ideal for agricultural land, resulting in bald mountains. 2. Trends in inter-Korean environmental cooperation and international cooperation □ Inter-Korean environmental cooperation ○ Inter-Korean cooperation in the environmental field has an important meaning for food and forestry, and cooperation for the reforestation of severely damaged forests can have a positive impact on water resources, food, and energy in general. ○ As cooperation for reforestation, tree sapling cultivation projects, afforestation projects, and forest pest control projects were mainly carried out, but active cooperation did not continue due to the strained inter-Korean relations. ○ In addition to cooperation in the forestry sector, the Republic of Korea has continuously proposed to promote cooperative projects in the fields of ecology, meteorology, and energy for shared rivers and bordering areas, but the DPRK has not responded to the proposal. ○ Compared to the national level, inter-Korean exchanges between local governments can strengthen links in non-political fields, so it is necessary to review examples of local governments’ environmental cooperation and future directions. □ International environmental cooperation ○ In order to improve the environment, the international community’s environmental cooperation is mainly focused on improving the health and sanitation environment of the vulnerable groups in the DPRK rather than taking a systematic approach such as the creation of environmental infrastructure or environmental management. ○ Recently, international cooperation has been promoted in cooperation with European organizations, UN organizations such as WHO, FAO, WFP, Unicef, and WPF, and international private organizations, and has focused on food security and the four fields of agriculture, nutrition, health, and water & sanitation. □ Conditions for exchange and cooperation ○ The Republic of Korea planned and promoted cooperation projects with the DPRK in the past to promote sustainable development on the Korean Peninsula and realize an environmental community with the DPRK. However, it is difficult to promote cooperative projects in all fields due to sanctions against the DPRK by the United Nations Security Council, the United States, and the Republic of Korea following the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development. ○ Moreover, due to the COVID-19 infection that hit the world in 2020, the DPRK has closed its borders and completely halted exchanges with the outside to prevent the spread of COVID-19, which is causing setbacks in the government’s plan to promote inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation. ○ As all staff of international organizations engaged in humanitarian activities in the DPRK have recently withdrawn, cooperative exchanges with the DPRK are currently virtually impossible. ○ From a long-term perspective, there is no disagreement in that inter-Korean environmental cooperation is one of the core tasks that we need to solve. So it is necessary to plan environmental cooperation tasks in case inter-Korean relations and the COVID-19 pandemic situation improve. ○ Conditions for cooperative exchange in consideration of the DPRK sanctions and COVID-19 situation are assumed according to each of the following four premises: ① if the COVID-19 situation and current sanctions against the DPRK are maintained, ② if the COVID-19 situation improves and current sanctions against the DPRK are maintained, ③ if sanctions against the DPRK are eased, and ④ if sanctions are lifted. Ⅲ. Water-Energy-Food Nexus Model 1. Review of the WEF Nexus analysis model □ In order to try resource management evaluation using the nexus analysis tool for the pilot watershed, analysis tools using the nexus framework and data required for analysis were reviewed. ○ According to the analysis of the composition, input data, and output data of CLEWS (Climate, Land-Use, Energy and Water System), WEF Nexus Tool 2.0, and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning), the WEF Nexus analysis using the model has limitations due to a lack of available data. 2. Establishment of a research database related to water management in the DPRK □ Collection of open-source spatial information ○ Thematic maps and spatial information of the Ministry of Environment, the Korea Meteorological Administration, the National Geographic Information Institute, and the Korea Forestry Promotion Institute that used spatial information as raw materials based on US public institutions, the World Meteorological Organization, European satellite images, and Google maps were collected. ○ A watershed map for water management planning across the DPRK was constructed in a scientific and standardized way using the numerical topographic maps collected and constructed in the research. □ Collecting other domestic and foreign research data on the DPRK ○ In order to diagnose, predict, and forecast the status of water management in the DPRK, report data were collected through self-investigation of organizations such as the UN OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, and the World Food Program. 3. Analysis of the WEF Status in the DPRK and the Republic of Korea □ Territory and population ○ As of 2019, the forest area in the DPRK decreased by about 39% compared to 1990, but the forest area in the Republic of Korea decreased by about 2%. ○ As of 2010, the populations of the DPRK and the Republic of Korea were 24,779,000 and 49,554,000. By 2055, the DPRK’s population is expected to increase by 1,821,000, but the the Republic of Korea’s population is estimated to decrease by 4,148,000. □ Agriculture and food ○ From 1980 to present, the arable land has decreased by 10% and 28% in both the DPRK and the Republic of Korea, but the cultivated area has increased in the DPRK whereas it has steadily decreased in the Republic of Korea. As of 2019, the DPRK had 329,000 ha more arable land and about 938,000 ha more cultivated area than the Republic of Korea. ○ As of 2019, the DPRK’s food crop production per 3,000 pyeong was 1.91 tons less than the Republic of Korea, and rice production per 10a was about 121 kg less, which seems to result from differences in agricultural technology. ○ From 1980 to 2009, the DPRK’s food crop production was lower than that of the Republic of Korea, but as the Republic of Korea’s food crop production steadily declined, the DPRK’s production was higher than the Republic of Korea’s in 2019. □ Energy ○ As of 2019, the Republic of Korea’s total energy supply was about 22 times higher than that of the DPRK, and coal and hydropower were the main sources of energy in the DPRK. ○ Energy consumption per capita in the DPRK and the Republic of Korea was similar until the 1980s, but the gap has widened since 1990. In 2014, the Republic of Korea consumed about 11 times more energy than the DPRK. ○ As of 2018, about 48.9% of the DPRK’s total population was using electricity, so it is likely that the electricity infrastructure is insufficient or outdated. Ⅳ. Analysis of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) in Study Area 1. The WEF status of the study area □ The total area of the Chaeryong River basin is about 3,657 ㎢ which consists of 11 cities and counties in North and South Hwanghae Provinces. It consists of 58% farmland, 36% forest, 1.7% urban area. □ There are Seoheung, Jangsu, and Eunpa reservoirs which are supplying agricultural water to Eojidon and Chaeryong irrigation districts. Seohueng and Eunpa reservoirs have hydroelectric plants. □ The Eojidon hydroelectirc power plant is located in the Chaeryong River basin. The hydroelectirc power plants of Seoheung and Eunpa reservoirs have capacities of 5,000 kW and 10,000 kW. □ The Chaeryong River basin includes the Eojidon and the Chaeryong irrigation districts which are representative large-scale irrigation districts in the DPRK. The areas of the Eojidon and Chaeryong irrigation districts are 42,000 ha and 45,000 ha, respectively. 2. Current status and future projections of water supply and demand □ Estimation and projection of water supply using climate change scenarios and watershed modeling ○ The SWAT model and climate change scenarios which were established and generated in the second year of the study are utilized. ○ The average annual dam inflows of Seoheung, Jangsu, and Eunpa reservoirs are 12.7㎥/s, 4.2㎥/s, and 9.8㎥/s, respectively. ○ The results showed that the annual dam inflow can be increased about 26~56% under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. □ Estimation of water demand ○ The quantity of water required for living in the Chaeryong River basin is 26,611,000㎥/year considering urban & rural population, LPCD, water use ratio, and water flow rate. ○ The total quantity of water required for agriculture is 1,432,000,000㎥/year, taking into account cultivated area and irrigation water per unit area. ○ The maximum quantity of water required for power generation is 1,616,343,000㎥/year based on the capacities of Eunpa and Seoheung reservoirs. ○ This study assumed that the consumption of water for domestic use and power generation has the same monthly patterns. For agricultural water, the monthly irrigation pattern was reflected based on the irrigation season. The monthly demand for agricultural water was the highest in April and May. 3. Analysis of the impact on the WEF Nexus according to simulations of water supply and demand □ Analysis of changes in hydrological cycles taking into account forest restoration and climate change ○ The reforestation causes a decrease in total runoff and surface runoff, and an increase in lateral and groundwater flows. ○ Forest restoration has the effect of reducing extreme floods and increasing low flow, which is expected to play a positive role in water management under climate change. □ Analysis of the impact of climate and social changes on the WEF Nexus ○ The annual runoff will be increased by 20~30% due to climate change during flood season as well as dry season(November to May). ○ This study assumed an increase in total population and the water use ratio to estimate water demand for living. ○ The demands for domestic water and water for power generation are expected to increase, and the demand for agricultural water is expected to decrease. 4. Suggestions of the WEF Nexus project for climate change adaptation □ Projects to increase the capacity of dams & reservoirs, develop groundwater evaluation & management system, and improve the water flow rate are necessary in the water resources sector. □ The development of renewable energy projects such as tidal power generation and wind power generation, and the expansion of hydroelectric power generation are needed in the energy sector. □ In the agricultural sector, water supply efficiency needs to be enhanced by improving irrigation facilities, storage capacity of small and medium-sized agricultural reservoirs should be increased and managed, and the development and application of cultivated varieties with different irrigation periods should be promoted. 5. Limitations of this study □ The accessibility, credibility, and the shortage of research datasets are limitations of this study. Nevertheless, the significance of this study is that it estimated the impacts of climate change and reforestation on water management in the DPRK. □ There is a limitation in the verification of the watershed modeling due to a lack of ground data including observed flow and operation hours of reservoirs. □ Based on the analysis and collected data in this study, it is expected that evaluation of the vulnerability to climate change and the quantitative effects of reforestation in the DPRK are possible. Ⅴ. The Direction for Water Management and Environmental Cooperation from the Perspective of the WEF Nexus 1. The DPRK’s water disaster management improvement plan that takes climate change into account □ Current status of laws and policies related to water disasters in the DPRK ○ The two Koreas are somewhat similar in that they define various types of damage caused by natural disasters and social disasters by law and form a disaster management system based on the four stages of disaster management(prevention-preparation-response-recovery). ○ In the case of the Republic of Korea, detailed information is provided to enable disaster management in complex situations, but in the case of the DPRK, the safety-vulnerable class is relatively less considered. ○ Comparing the River Acts of the two Koreas, there are similar provisions in terms of river management, but there is a difference in the concreteness of the content. ○ In the DPRK, there are no separate regulations on detailed standards for classifying rivers, and there are no provisions stipulating specific procedures and other details regarding the management and maintenance of rivers. □ Institutional improvement plans for water disaster management ○ The relevant regulations should be revised to introduce a pluralistic system that can cover various types of social disasters in the disaster management legislation.. ○ In order to improve the river management legislation, The river management legislation in the DRPK should be improved in a way which would lessen differences from specific provisions of River Act of the Republic of Korea. ○ In the DPRK, detailed classification standards for rivers and designation of responsible organizations for efficient management are required. Since overflow of rivers is the main cause of floods, details regarding flood control should be thoroughly established in terms of river management. □ Direction for inter-Korean cooperation for water disaster management ○ Since the Republic of Korea and the DPRK frequently share flood disasters that occur around shared rivers due to their geographical characteristics, it is necessary to prepare a new system to make possible joint response to natural disasters when improving the legal system. ○ In the legal and institutional approach for disaster prevention in the DPRK, it is also necessary to consider the establishment of an expert committee on water resources between the two Koreas in order to share advanced technologies and collaborate on research. 2. Development of inter-Korean environmental cooperation tasks from the perspective of the WEF Nexus □ Analysis of the impact of reforestation and climate change on the WEF Nexus ○ It is necessary to draw up environmental cooperation tasks that encompass the analysis of water management vulnerability due to climate change and forest restoration, the WEF Nexus analysis concept that takes into account the DPRK’s situation, and the conditions for cooperative exchange. ○ The impact of each type of use on individual factors was analyzed, in case the inflow of dams that has increased due to forest restoration and climate change is used for domestic use, agriculture, and power generation for water-energy-food. ○ Focusing on reforestation, a decrease in food production is expected due to the use of wood fuel and clearing, but an increase in food production in downstream arable land can be expected as the peak flow control contributes to reducing flood damage. ○ An increase in precipitation due to climate change may contribute to securing more water for agriculture, living, and power generation, but it cannot guarantee a positive impact as inundation of agricultural land and damage to WEF-related infrastructure due to the increased flood frequency are expected. □ The analysis of the impact of changes in water management on the WEF Nexus ○ The impact and relations occurring in the WEF Nexus were analyzed in case the inflow of dams increased according to climate change and reforestation is used for power generation, domestic use and flood control, and agriculture. ○ If the increased water resources due to climate change and reforestation are used for agriculture, living, and flood control, the purpose of each use will be achieved only when smooth power supply and river infrastructure are in place. □ Developing cooperative projects for each element of the WEF Nexus that take sustainability into consideration ○ In order to offset the ripple effect caused by the lack of energy resources, it is expected that it will be more effective to supply small-scale methane gas power generation facilities in villages rather than relying on hydroelectric power generation. ○ Since a great amount of electricity is lost during the transmission in the DPRK, it is necessary to repair the transmission infrastructure. ○ For sustainable cooperative projects related to food production, maintaining and repairing river infrastructure including embankments and disseminating agricultural technology can be effective. ○ In terms of domestic water, projects to repair water and wastewater pipe network infrastructure and improve the water quality of wells, the main source of drinking water in local areas, are expected to be effective. ○ To establish a sustainable water management system in the DPRK, a meteorological and water environment monitoring system must be developed. 3. Development of environmental cooperation tasks that take into consideration the WEF Nexus analysis and exchange conditions □ It is necessary to improve various ecosystem services of forests through forest cooperation to contribute to solving the chronic problem of food and energy shortage in the DPRK. □ In the first stage where exchanges are generally limited, cooperation that mainly supports the DPRK from a humanitarian point of view can be carried out. □ In the stage of expanded exchanges where sanctions against the DPRK have been eased and the COVID-19 situation has improved, transportation of goods for environmental cooperation will become easier, making possible various infrastructure repair projects in the sectors of forestry, water, agriculture, and energy and the transfer of some technologies. □ Joint R&D and CDM cooperation will be possible in the stage of free exchange where sanctions against the DPRK have been lifted.

물관리 취약성과 물안보 전략 III

김익재 한국환경연구원 2011 녹색성장연구보고서 Vol.2011 No.-

The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability of water management posed by climate change and to propose the water security strategies. This study is based on the outcomes of 「Green Grown Policy Research」and other related studies from 2009 to 2011. By analyzing the published documents on water resources, flood management, water quality, aquatic ecosystems, groundwater etc., authors tried to develope a comprehensive water security strategy. The impacts of climate change on water are already observed in Korea and it will be more significant in the future. Many researches forecast that the average temperature and precipitation in Korean Peninsula are expected to increase by climate change. However, scale and frequency of the impacts differs from researchers to researchers. The uncertainty of prediction is a serious obstacle in the preparation of water management policies. Although many researches have sought to reduce and quantify the uncertainty, but the efforts still remain insufficient. The vulnerability of water management due to climate change was investigated at the major water sectors including water resources, extreme droughts, sea level rise and costal erosion, water infrastructure, demand management etc. The impacts of climate change will be most significant in water resources sector and the magnitude of the impacts will vary by region. Generally, many studies predicted ... that the average annual precipitation will increase. But water shortages may occur at several regions for certain period by the changes of precipitation patterns. The climate change-induced phenomena can affect the water quality, too. The increased rainfall intensity can induce more soil erosion. And the increase in air temperature can raise the water temperature. Moreover, the changes of water temperature and precipitation pattern will give serious impacts on the freshwater ecosystem. Current flood risk management is based on 100- to 200-year flood, but the risk of unpredicted extreme flood is increasing. The existing river levees are not sufficient to 500-year flood and additional measures such as constructing flood detention reservoir are necessary. Coastal erosion is a problem in Korea and it will be more severe as sea level rises. So, sea level rise must be incorporated from the step of coastal planning. Current water-environment infrastructures such as wastewater treatment plants and sewer systems are vulnerable to climatic and other social changes. It is recommended that the water-environment infrastructures are remodeled as green infrastructures, which can maximize the rainwater harvesting & use and minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. Problems in water demand and regional water conflicts were also investigated. Climate change may create new problems or intensify current difficulties in water management. In addition, the impacts of climate change are interconnected each other and the impacts in water management can propagate to other social sectors. In a worst case, the defects in water management can lead to national insecurity. Therefore, water management is not an individual policy but it should be regarded as a matter of national security. To deal with the water problems posed by climate change, following concept of water security would be useful - to continuously provide adequate quantity and acceptable quality of water for both human beings and ecosystems, and to build the resilience of water-related disasters. Authors proposed the following five strategies to establish water security in Korea - (1) restoring the natural water cycle, (2) ensuring the resilience of water management, (3) establishing the watershed-based water management system, (4) preparing the budget and investment plan for climate change adaptation in water sector, and (5) building climate change adaptation capacities in water and water-related sectors. Specific policy measures were also suggested in different water management sectors including climate change surveillance, water supply, water demand management, ecosystem restoration, disaster preparedness, climate change mitigation, legal and institutional reforms etc. As mentioned above, many issues on water management or water security are linked each other. And disagreements or conflicts can arise among different stakeholders. If the stakeholders share the importance and vision of water security in water management, communication and cooperation among federal-local government and civil society can be more facilitated.

북한의 산림복원과 기후변화가 물관리 취약성에 미치는 영향과 정책방향 연구

김익재,명수정,조을생,서승범,전동진,유은진,임경재,이관재,조승혜 한국환경연구원 2019 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2019 No.-

Ⅰ. Introduction 1. Background and Objectives of the Research □ Background of the Research ㅇ A large portion of forest areas in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have been devastated, which is believed to increase the risk of water-related disasters caused by climate change ㅇ As forest restoration in DPRK was adopted and declared as a priority task for environmental cooperation between the two Koreas, both sides announced plans to protect the environment and improve cooperation ㅇ The effect of forest restoration is more easily achieved when stable water management is preceded, and considering the change of forest and water management are closely related, the impact should be taken into account in the restoration project □ Objectives of the Research ㅇ The purpose of this study is to derive policy suggestions for the development of environmental cooperation in the water sector by diagnosing the impact of forest restoration and climate change on DPRK’s water management and providing the results ㅇ The accumulation of these findings is expected to contribute to the solution of water-related problems, and the increase of DPRK’s adaptability to climate change is expected to result in a virtuous cycle of economic development, improvement of the quality of life and improvement of the ecological environment ㅇ In terms of expansion of environmental cooperations such as water management, it can develope to future policy cooperations Ⅱ. Research Review and Trend Analysis 1. Water Management in DPRK □ Water-related Disasters (Floods, Droughts) ㅇ DPRK is vulnerable to water management and use due to a large fluctuation in annual precipitation and frequent floods, and about 67% of electricity production depends on hydropower generation ㅇ DPRK is likely to be very sensitive to the effects of climate change in many aspects □ Water Resource and Water Use ㅇ Though the total amount of water resource of the Republic of Korea (ROK) is slightly larger than that of DPRK, due to their population differences, per capita amount is the opposite ㅇ However, the rate of water supply is presumed to be rather low due to difficulties such as the lack of infrastructure and low sustainability of water supply facilities 2. Forest in DPRK □ Land Cover Change Analysis ㅇ The forest area of DPRK decreased sharply from the 1980s to the 1990s, and the decreasing tendency continued until the 2000s ㅇ During the same period, it was confirmed that the area of farmland has increased □ Change Analysis of Forest Topography ㅇ DPRK has also recognized the problems of deforestation and the need for preservation, and is working to restore forests on their own and in cooperation with the international community ㅇ Since forests are closely related to water, it is necessary to predict and assess the impacts and changes in water management and use as restoration efforts continue ㅇ It is necessary to predict the combined impacts of climate change and forest restoration by applying climate change scenarios Ⅲ. Forest Restoration and Climate Change Impact Analysis 1. Collection and Construction of Research Data □ A variety of data are needed to achieve research objectives, but accessibility and acquisition are very limited ㅇ Collected and constructed a lot of data based on cooperation and advice from experts and specialized institutions - Weather and climate, topographic map, soil map, land cover map, etc ㅇ The research data is expected to play a pivotal function in the following research, and it will be revised and supplemented every year and new databases will be added ㅇ It is expected to be used for research on DPRK’s water management, and the table below shows the list of collected and constructed data and its target area, resolution, and etc 2. Database of Water Management Facilities: DPRK □ Conducted a full survey of the water management facilities which are the basis for water management information ㅇ Water management facility refers to reservoirs, beams, and puddles, and their location information which were identified based on satellite images will be used to presume the current situation 3. Climate Change Scenarios and Future Drought Prospects: DPRK □ Development and interpretation of climate change scenarios and analysis of future drought prospects and characteristics in DPRK ㅇ Constructed 10 climate change scenarios using 5 representative GCM models and RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios ㅇ Analyzed the change of future climate of the pilot basin, and the prospects and characteristics of future droughts throughout DPRK using the SPEI - Annual total precipitation in the pilot basin tended to increase with time, and RCP8.5 showed a larger change than RCP4.5 - Drought forecasts across DPRK showed that the fluctuation of RCP8.5 was large, and droughts were more frequent in the northern area 4. Water Management and Basin Modeling: Seoheung-ho Basin □ The Seoheung-ho basin of the Taedong River basin was selected as a pilot basin since it is a very important source of water for the use of surrounding farmland, and its forest area showed significant change in time series satellite images ㅇ Investigated the current situation of nearby Sariwon-si including its water management facilities, and disasters ㅇ Established watershed modeling of the watershed using the acquired research data 5. Impact of Forest Restoration and Climate Change: Seoheung-ho Basin □ Constructed and applied climate change and forest restoration scenarios, and evaluated their impact to flow and hydrological cycle of the basin in the 2050s ㅇ Evaluated the impacts of climate change, forest restoration, and climate change + forest restoration, and as for climate change, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were applied - Overall, there was an increase in precipitation across all months, with an apparent increase in summer runoff - Climate change affected increased soil water content due to increased rainfall and increase in evapotranspiration rate due to increased temperature (except August, when precipitation decreased) - Although it was confirmed that the amount of runoff decreased due to the effect of forest restoration, looking at the combined effect of climate change and forest restoration, the decrease in summer flow rate due to forest restoration offsets the increase of flow rate due to climate change to some extent □ Analysed of soil erosion potential as forest area of the basin changes ㅇ The soil erosion potential of the whole basin increased by about 1.5 times, whereas 7.6~7.9 times increase was shown in the deforested area for agricultural purpose, and the analysis emphasizes the necessity of forest restoration Ⅳ. Conclusion and Policy Suggestions 1. Conclusion and Suggestions □ Cooperation and support between the two Koreas for water management, climate adaptation and forest restoration is needed ㅇ Most natural disasters in DPRK are related to water ㅇ There are direct and indirect impacts of forest change ㅇ About 9.75 million people do not receive safe drinking water supply and lack basic sanitation services □ The current status of water management in DPRK ㅇ Collected and built related research data - Weather and climate, topographic map, land cover, soil map, water field location information, etc ㅇ Analysis of pilot basin using collected research data □ Analyzed the impacts of climate change, forest restoration and their complex impact ㅇ Apparent increase in runoff due to increased precipitation ㅇ The increase of infiltration rate and decrease of runoff from late spring to summer is expected as the forest area increases - Importance of Seoheung-ho’s quantity management and operation ㅇ The runoff during summer, increased due to climate change, is expected to decrease as forest area increases - Reduced risk of flood in downstream areas such as Sariwon-si 2. Limitations and Complements of the Research □ Limitations of the Research ㅇ Absence and limited access to data - Many basins are unmeasured and lack the necessary data - Limitations in basin modeling calibration and validation - Some information cannot be inferred with secured data (spatial information) - Uncertainty cannot be excluded, but efforts to secure maximum reliability of research data and validity of research methods were made □ Complements of the Research ㅇ Analysis of available water resources and deriving measures to secure water volume - Using precipitation characteristics and estimated basin runoff after status research of water management and water environment infrastructure ㅇ Quantitative assessment of vulnerability to forest restoration and climate change, respectively - Derivation of climate change vulnerability assessment procedure in water sector based on this study 3. Second Year Research Plan □ Reestablish and supplement research methodology ㅇ Update and in-depth analysis of first year research results - Update of water disasters and water use status - In-depth analysis of DPRK's water management system including the law and the authorities ㅇ Build and improve water management database of major areas - New DB for hydro power plant, water and sewage facility, road network around river, etc - Analysis of available water resources and derivation of low water supply plan ㅇ Establish basin modeling system - Deepen and expand the methodology for the first year pilot zone - Impact estimation of forest restoration and climate change scenarios to runoff, soil generation, water supply and management ㅇ (3^rd year) Forest environment and climate change vulnerability analysis - Identify the spatio-temporal effects of forest restoration and climate change on vulnerability of water management in DPRK - Derivation of sustainable water management cooperation plan based on Nexus (water-energy-food) - Suggest policies and draw up cooperation projects between two Koreas

Data Science 기반 기후변화 대응 지원 플랫폼 구축을 위한 전략 마련 연구(Ⅱ)

진대용,표종철,조윤랑,한국진,김도연 한국환경연구원 2021 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2021 No.-

Ⅰ. Introduction □ Necessity and purpose of the study ○ The intensification of climate change phenomena such as abnormal weather conditions and natural disasters affects not only the natural environment but also human activities in various ways. ○ Recently, Korea has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 in cooperation with the international community and has been actively responding to climate change. ○ Climate change can be divided into mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas and adaptation efforts to minimize damage and risk. However, since climate change occurs due to multiple causes, complementary policies on both efforts are needed. ○ In 2018, the Ministry of Science and ICT established the “Strategy for Sharing and Utilization of Research Data” to manage and share research data accumulated during the promotion of national R&D projects, and the era of data-intensive science is coming in earnest. - The development of equipment such as hardware and high-performance networks has produced a great deal of research data, and the management of various research data is an essential element for effective research performance. ○ This study aims to promote the climate change response focusing on data, which means to convert climate change research into one that is based on data science. - “Data Science” is a generic term for the process of understanding actual phenomena and deriving useful knowledge from various types of data. - As more data such as data from information and communication technology (ICT), satellite data, and meteorological reinterpretation data are generated, it is important to secure relevant data to link and utilize them. ○ Data for climate change response are scattered across various organizations and there are many constraints in terms of data utilization due to the absence of a standard system for classifying environmental data. Thus, it is urgent to come up with measures to utilize data efficiently and conveniently. □ Scope of the study ○ Analyze the current status of climate environment data, establish and operate an implementation system of the data management plan (DMP), and prepare a strategy for establishing a climate environment data platform as well as a plan for providing differentiated data services - Prepare a data inventory in the mitigation & reduction sector to respond to climate change based on the status of satellite-centered climate environment application data and data survey in the climate change mitigation sector - Define the scope of research data and introduce a data management plan (DMP) for establishing a practical implementation system for climate environment data management, and establish the KEI-type data management promotion system centered on research data repository (IDR) - Seek ways to provide climate environment data services that can be used for environmental policy research based on the established climate environment data inventory and management system ㆍ Climate environment data is limited to public data related to mitigation and adaptation to respond to climate change in this project. ㆍ This study aims to prevent the use of various accumulated data in a single research project only and maximize the sharing and utilization of data. - Review the laws and systems related to data sharing and utilization, as well as surveys for establishing a climate environment data platform, and suggest realistic plans for policy research centered on climate change data □ Content and methodology ○ In the second year of the study, building and supplementing the greenhouse gas reduction data in major environmental organizations and promoting the advancement of the existing inventory are planned. - This study examines the possibility of expanding the scope of climate change response data based on the satellite data outputs and the status of meteorological and climate data collected by the Korea Meteorological Administration among climate environment data. ○ This study seeks to derive the essential elements for defining and managing research data for the preparation and establishment of the KEI research data management system. ○ This study aims to develop a roadmap for constructing the KEI climate environment data platform based on research data management systems investigated and expert opinions. ○ To expand the above platform and make it the KEI-type data platform in the future, we plan to upload the collected meta-information of climate change response data to the research data repository system on a trial basis, and improve policy utilization through the data mind map trial services. Ⅱ. Advancement of the Climate Environment Data Inventory □ Current status of domestic climate environment application data ○ Climate change greatly affects not only precipitation, cloud amount, and temperature, but also vegetation distribution and land distribution, and to respond to these, primary data needs to be secured. ○ Overseas, satellite data are being used for observation in various areas, such as air-polluting gases, climate change-causing gases, aerosols, and vegetation index changes, led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA). ○ In Korea, a geostationary complex satellite was launched following the Communications Oceanic and Meteorological Satellite (COMS), and the data produced through the satellite observation are used as basic data in developing climate change response policies. ○ Korea’s representative satellites include the Geostationary Ocean Color imgaer (GOCI), Chollian Satellite, Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-2B, and GEO-KOMSAT-2A. - The GOCI is used to monitor red tide, sea ice, sea fog, marine dumping, marine sand mining activities, fine dust, and so on. ㆍ As the major outputs, 13 types of data are produced, including the data on dissolved organic matter, chlorophyll, total suspended matter, red tide index, and terrestrial vegetation index. - Geostationary Satellite 2B observes the marine environment and ecosystem, monitors air pollutants outside the Korean Peninsula, and provides data for responding to climate change and monitoring fine dust. ㆍ A total of 26 types of data are provided, including atmospheric correction, unique optical characteristics, atmospheric data, sea color data, ocean data, and land data. - Compared to the GOCI, GEO-KOMSAT-2A Satellite is capable of various observations, and it is possible to monitor and prepare for meteorological disasters. ㆍ A total of 52 types of meteorological data are produced, 23 types of which being basic ones including cloud detection, ozone amount, and rainfall intensity, and 29 types being additional ones including forest fire detection, vegetation index, vegetation rate, and surface reflectance. □ Current status of climate change response data ○ Responding to climate change should be considered in terms of both mitigation policies (reducing or absorbing greenhouse gases) and adaptation policies (reducing damage from climate change). ○ This study aims to link climate change mitigation policies and adaptation policies by examining the current status of climate change mitigation data such as energy, power generation, and greenhouse gas emissions. ○ Data in the climate change mitigation (greenhouse gas reduction) sector can be largely divided into energy statistics, the national greenhouse gas inventory, and other related and usable data. - The Korea Energy Statistical Information System links and integrates statistics related to energy balance and national energy supply and demand, as well as statistical data from related organizations in accordance with the regulations on preparing energy statistics. - The national greenhouse gas inventory provides data to identify domestic greenhouse gas emission sources, sinks, and the amount of emissions and absorption to respond to climate change. - Other data include traffic/transport and electricity data to support the emission calculation and analysis in the public and private sectors as well as academic world and to link greenhouse gas inventories. ○ The climate change adaptation sector builds the climate environment data inventory based on the data established in the system operated by the National Climate Change Adaptation Center (KACCC). - Vulnerability assessment data for adaptation to climate change are provided by the integrated assessment model for climate change impact and vulnerability by sector (MOTIVE) and climate change vulnerability assessment tool (VESTAP), which are representative climate change adaptation systems. ○ Various weather observation data and disaster prevention meteorological information observed and provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration are used as basic data in various fields, such as in predicting the future of climate change and establishing response policies. - Climate change scenarios can be used for analysis in impact assessment due to future climate change and research on minimizing the damage, and it is used as essential information for establishing and supporting climate change response and adaptation measures. Ⅲ. Establishment of a Climate Environment Data Management System □ Overview of KEI research data management ○ Efforts to share and utilize domestic research data are actively pursued following the implementation of the regulations on Data Management Plan (DMP) in 2019. - There are successful cases of data preservation and reuse from national R&D projects in major advanced countries, and open data activities are spreading around the world. - Research data and data management plans are defined in the Regulations on the Management of National Research and Development Projects. The basis for managing research data at the national level is established by stipulating the requirement to submit DMP when conducting national R&D projects. ○ Core elements for managing and providing research data can be divided into supporting DMP preparation, data file organization, data storage, data sharing and access, data citation, and data management education. □ Research data collection and management ○ Research data is factual data calculated through various experiments, observations, investigations, and analysis conducted in the course of conducting R&D tasks, and is essential for the verification of research results. - Research data refers to all data generated in the research process, so it must be distinguished from research records such as e-mails or technical reports. - In order to support continuous research activities and to preserve and share research results, it is necessary to manage the data generated during the research process in the research institute to which the researcher belongs and the community in which the researcher is active. ○ DMP refers to an official document describing how research data produced and collected through a research project is managed and shared during or after the research project. - DMP allows faithful data description before data collection, which eliminates the need for researchers to make efforts to memorize details about data and allows data reuse. ○ Research data management is an act that occurs in all processes, from the research planning stage to data production, collection, management, preservation and disposal, publication, and reuse in accordance with the research life cycle. ○ For the development of the KEI climate environment data platform, it is important to identify the research data life cycle and confirm the details. □ Establishment of a research data management system ○ Data repository is developed as an open source and can utilize open software, and DSpace and NaRDA are representative examples. - DSpace makes it easy to submit files and accommodates a variety of files by providing a web-based interface, and it can be expanded to a large-scale, multi-disciplinary repository beyond one institution. - NaRDA is a research data repository developed and disseminated by the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), designed and implemented in consideration of the cycle of researchers’ data management activities. ㆍ On NaRDA, users can fill out DMP submission forms, post and share them. ㆍ In the stage of conducting research, data for research can be freely uploaded and downloaded, and data description can be provided. ㆍ In the last stage, research data can be registered for sharing research results, and for this purpose, metadata extraction and DOI grant functions are provided. ○ Research data consists of metadata and source data, and metadata is an index element used in data retrieval systems to describe data. ○ Metadata describes the properties of data, provides context and data quality information, and it refers to the documentation of the characteristics of other objects or data. □ Preservation and sharing of research data ○ When digital research data is preserved, various benefits can be generated and preservation of data requires human and material resources. - For data preservation, a method to collect the relevant information should be systematically provided, and there should be given a permanent identifier (DOI, ARK, UUID, etc) for preservation and publication. ㆍ The most commonly used permanent identifier is DOI, and organizations that publish data using the DOI prefix issued by KISTI can publish data by adding a suffix. ○ In relation to data publication, it is necessary to reflect the will of the researcher, and it is also necessary to set the ranges for internal and external sharing and design frames and functions that can express the level of the researcher’s demand. ○ Effective use, sharing, and reuse of research data can be expected by improving the data literacy ability of researchers, and a compensation system for data disclosure should be prepared to promote research data sharing and reuse. □ Research data construction service cases and implications ○ The Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) has been operating GDR, a geological data repository, recognizing that duplicate research is being conducted due to the absence of a management system for research data. - GDR is the first repository that issues DOIs for data access control functions and data linked to external data, and implements a system that includes the DMP form in the business plan. ○ The Korea Institute of Oriental Medicine (KIOM) has been operating the oriental medicine research data repository (KMDR). - KMDR is an information system for systematic management and sharing of research data in the field of oriental medicine, established for the purpose of supporting efficient research performance through data management support and enhancement of utilization. - By linking the encryption module application for the protection of research data from external threats and DMP creation and management functions, it is possible to manage the entire period of research data. ○ The National Institute of Forest Science newly established a provision on the obligatory management of research data through a partial revision (February 11, 2019) of the “Regulations on Research Project Management of the National Institute of Forest Science (Regulation No. 307).” - It established a reward plan to promote active research data management and raise awareness on the participation to support data-based convergence forest science research. ○ In order to create a research data management and governance system, continuous education is required so that the perception of researchers and management can change in a positive way, and continuous cooperation with leading institutions is important. □ Establishment of the KEI research data utilization and management system ○ There are few data production cases in environmental policy research, and applying the DMP and research data repository system operated in the science and technology field has limitations due to the integrated and complex format of social and natural science research. ○ Based on the data classification status of major institutions, KEI research data is classified according to types and formats of data and data production methods. - Types and formats of data (indicator/index, policy database, measurement /observation, simulation, literature, expert opinion, presentation materials /policy document, etc) - Data production methods (internal-produced, internal-processed, external -produced, external-processed, etc) ○ KEI needs to systematically manage research data in order to prevent its loss, establish sustainable environmental policies, prepare a multidisciplinary convergence research system through data linkage, and support evidencebased policy decision-making. - DMP was introduced (implemented in June 2021) when research projects for 2022 were proposed to improve the efficiency of research performance management through data performance management, facilitate the dissemination of research results, and create a data-based research cooperation ecosystem. - For the efficient operation of the first DMP applied in the institute, research data is defined as data used during the environmental (policy) research process or major research outcomes. ○ This study aims to prepare a DMP-centered data management system by establishing a research repository, linking intranet accounts to the repository, registering metadata, and preparing plans to connect DMP and IDR. Ⅳ. KEI Climate Environment Data Platform Construction Strategy □ Overview of KEI climate environment data platform construction ○ Efforts are underway to share and utilize various research data through the establishment of a data platform, promoting the use of research data at the national level, and creating an advanced research environment for convergence research, open science, and so on. ○ Data is being produced exponentially in various fields, but there are still issues related to the ownership and disclosure of information. - There is a lack of appropriate legislation in terms of integrating and using data and using them jointly across sectors. - The foundation is being laid for data industry revitalization through the revision and enforcement of the “Three Data Privacy Acts” and the “Act on the Promotion of Data-based Administration” but there is a high possibility of problems such as overlapping regulations occurring. ○ This study summarizes the current status of laws and systems related to information access and services and research data management to manage climate environment research data and prepare a platform construction strategy. - The main laws and systems related to data use and utilization include the Framework Act on Environmental Policy, Electronic Government Act, Framework Act on National Informatization, Act on Promotion of the Provision and Use of Public Data, Framework Act on Intelligent Informatization, Act on the Promotion of Data-based Administration, Special Act on Promotion of Information and Communications Technology and Vitalization of Convergence Thereof, Regulations on the Management of National Research and Development Projects, and the Act on Promotion of Information and Communications Network Utilization and Information Protection, etc. ○ First, we drew out the requirements for improvement from the current laws and systems related to the use and utilization of data in terms of research data management. - It is necessary to add a clause recommending (research) data management to the Regulations on the Management of National Research and Development Projects and to recommend in the Act on the Promotion of Data-based Administration that institutions establish metasystems and IDR systems be constructed. □ Establishment of the KEI Climate Environment Data Platform Construction Strategy ○ Currently, big data platform projects are being actively carried out, but there are still difficulties in acquiring data that can be used for climate environment policy research on multiple platforms. ○ A survey was conducted among experts in various media who conducted environmental policy research in order to establish a plan to connect various platforms differentiated from those of similar projects. - We collected basic data to develop macroscopic strategies for building a climate environment data platform construction strategy, planning data-based environmental research projects, and expanding the established platform in the future to make it the KEI-type data platform. - The questionnaire was divided largely into three main themes: data use and utilization, KEI climate environment data platform establishment, and data-based policy research demand. ㆍ The direction for construction is set based on the purpose of using climate environment data, whether there are any difficulties, data quality factors and characteristics, the opinions collected on data and services that should be provided in the platform, and other suggestions. ○ We established strategies that can make the platform serve as a “channel” for data utilization and linkage in environmental policy research by conducting a survey on the current status of climate environment data to respond to climate change and preparing a research data management system. - A roadmap to respond to the demands for creating core values was prepared, such as conducting convergence research, conducting strategic research for synergy, and conducting sustainable policy research. - The KEI research data utilization and management roadmap (draft) sets three main goals for data management and utilization and elicits detailed essential elements for promotion: ① establishment of a climate environment data hub, ② conversion of the climate environment data utilization system, and ③ improvement of the data utilization system. ㆍ Establishment of a climate environment data hub (builing an infrastructure, data linkage) ㆍ Conversion of the climate environment data utilization system (building an environmental data collaboration network, a data system for participatory environmental policy, and a data application system) ㆍ Data utilization system improvement (data utilization system improvement, data management system application, data management advancement) ※ For details of the KEI research data utilization and management roadmap, refer to < Figure 4-14 >~< Figure 4-16 >. Ⅴ. Establishment of the KEI Climate Environment Data Provision Services □ Overview of the KEI Climate Environment Data Provision Services ○ Based on the climate environment data inventory, we intend to prepare a data provision service plan and provide services to support decision-making on climate environment policy issues. - We set the scope with the data established by KEI and the platform data on the climate environment provided by other organizations, through which we prepared a plan for providing climate environment data. ○ In this study, we propose a method to improve data utilization and accessibility in policy research by preparing keyword-oriented policies and data linkage plans. - Providing customized data to users by diversifying keywords by field is proposed. □ Plan for providing KEI climate environment data ○ It is necessary to come up with a practical plan for researchers to use research data efficiently, and to provide a service by organizing the meta-information of major data. ○ In this study, the DMP is prepared based on the analysis of the current status of the climate environment data inside and outside the institute, which is connected to create metadata and provided as the pilot data on the research data repository system. - We provide various climate environment data that can be used as a basis for understanding policy issues and making decisions. - In order to improve the utilization of data in policy making, types of data, media information, and related keywords should be included in the metadata. ○ In order to develop a search engine to enhance the policy utilization of climate environment data, a keyword dictionary and related algorithms were built with related keywords stored. ○ To enhance access to climate change data, we propose a service in the form of a mind map that classifies and provides data by category and keyword frequency. - When providing a mind map, related data is extracted centered on ‘search words’ and classified by category. ㆍ Metadata such as name, keyword, and description of data as well as name of data source are matched with search keywords to preferentially select the range of data that will be used in mind mapping. ㆍ The criteria for primary and secondary classification are the climate change adaptation sector and sub-categories by sector, respectively. The tertiary classification consists of a mind map that provides keywords in bundles based on the frequency included in the data. □ Plan for providing a service linking climate environment policy with data ○ We suggest establishing links by giving sufficient amounts of relevant keywords to data through various routes. - Extract relevant keywords from KEI research reports and assign them to each database of major environmental issues - It is necessary to set the scope for keyword management depending on the content and nature of text data, and consider setting the limits to texts reflecting the positions of policy providers or demanders and assigning related keywords. Ⅵ. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations □ Conclusion ○ This study is a pilot study to strengthen data-centered responses to climate change and lay the foundation for digital transformation by establishing a data-science response platform strategy in the field of climate environment. ○ In the first-year study, the current status of data from KEI and other major organizations that can be used for climate change adaptation by sector was investigated, and additional data that can be used in climate change vulnerability assessment was proposed. ○ The second-year study includes the satellite data which are widely used in recent climate change research along with the existing adaptation data. ○ In addition, data in sectors such as industry, transportation, and household that can be used for greenhouse gas reduction and climate change mitigation are additionally investigated, and an inventory is built by integrating them. ○ It is expected that data utilization will be improved with the establishment of a climate environment data inventory with which it is possible to efficiently provide relevant data when conducting research on climate change response. ○ The draft of the research data management system was prepared with basic elements by supplementing the research data management system which focuses on climate environment data and investigating case studies on data management and collection by other institutions. ○ A DMP-centered research management system was prepared in consideration of in-house research data utilization cases, data scope, the review of DMP format construction cases, and research promotion process. ○ This study establishes a data management system that can be practically used in KEI in consideration of DMP preparation for climate environment data management and utilization, metadata template construction and supplementation, DMP and research data submission process, data format, and so on. ○ In particular, as an example of climate change response policy, detailed topics for each data sector are set to support research in the field of adaptation, and metadata is established to provide information on the data such as related keywords, data descriptions, and data sources. ○ To support for data-based policy, it is necessary to think about which document we should choose to extract keywords and the key is to set texts based on which we can identify related issues and important matters such as media reports and policy-related documents. ○ It analyzes the current status of climate environment data to respond to climate change, prepares a research data management and execution system, and presents a realistic approach strategy for how to provide actual data. □ Limitations and points for improvement ○ In the long term, it is necessary to make an effort to build a data set that can accommodate the needs of various users along with building an excellent platform that covers the entire environmental field. ○ In order to realize data-based policy research, in-depth consideration on what data can be practically used for policy research and how to build it, and continuous efforts to manage research results in databases and preserve them as meaningful outcomes are required. ○ To implement the roadmap for developing the KEI climate environment data platform, a large amount of resources including budget and human resources are essential; also, the implementation should be based on the consensus on the need for a data-sharing and a platform for it. ○ In overall environmental policy research, it is necessary to prepare a practical data cooperation system to expand the area of data outcomes and increase the utilization of the established data as well as promoting data set establishment projects necessary for policy making and implementation.

기후변화에 따른 화학물질 위해성 관리방안 1

박정규,신용승 한국환경연구원 2011 기본연구보고서 Vol.2011 No.-

Climate change has been bring more severe and frequent extreme weather phenomena which make global effects on the entire area of the earth. Toxicity and exposures of chemicals are affected by climate change, resulting in alteration of risk which has played a center role in policies of chemical risk management. While current studies of climate change and chemical management or chemical risk are in the very early stage, they suggest that climate change would make impacts on chemical risk and to respond to them, generation of scientific data and improvement of risk management policies would be in need. The main goals of this research were to scrutinize the relationships between chemicals and climate change based on studies of climate change and to propose important policy aspects of chemical risk studies in the future. To accomplish these goals, first, we derived implications from reviewing literature of effects of climate change on chemical risk. The implications were as follows: (1) Changes in natural environment and life patterns due to climate change may alter the applications of exiting chemicals and also possibly stimulates development of new chemicals. (2) Extreme weather phenomena due to climate change could disturb weather factors like air pressure and humidity along with variation of physicochemical properties of environmental media such as temperature, salinity and pH, leading to changes in environmental fate of pollutants. (3) In soils and watersheds, trace amounts of pollutants which are not regarded as risk factors may raise risk if ecosystem is influenced by climate change. (4) Environmental changes because of climate change are supposed to alter toxicity, exposure and fate of chemicals, and subsequently impact on the chemical risks. Second, a chemical fate model was applied to inspect influences of climate change on environmental factors which are commonly used for risk assessments and identify sensitive factors to climate change if necessary. The impacts of climate change on the chemical fate estimated from the multimedia fate model show that in the specific regions, the levels of the pollution due to climate change vary with the weather, environmental conditions, and release conditions of pollutants in a variety of shapes. The impacts of the characteristics of the pollutants were not more imminent than the impacts of the difference of the regional conditions. Except for the Gangwon province, the impacts of climate change on the annual average concentration of atmospheric PAH were presented with the variations of less than 10% and independent of the region and PAH type. An annual average concentration of PAH in soil was predicted to be slightly decreased by climate change. In contrast, the variation of the annual average concentration of the water body kept increasing compared to no climate change (NCC) for the long term regardless of the substance or the region. The range of the variation for the water body was also wider than the variation range for the air or soil. Additionally, for the Gangwon province, the variation of the annual average concentration was remarkably different from variation of the other areas in light of the direction and magnitude of the variation. It suggests that regional differences could be influential on the climate change effects, and therefore it is certain that analysis of the causes and expansion of the target area is requested. Meanwhile, it was expected that in the air and water, the monthly average concentration can increase by one or two orders of magnitude compared to NCC indicating the potential adverse effects of climate change on human health and aquatic ecosystems. Thus, it is necessary to establish systems to identify conditions favorable for increase in contamination due to climate change and predict the impacts of climate change on the contamination and also prepare the prevention and countermeasures for these impacts. Third, it was suggested that chemical management should be contemplated in preparation of paradigm shift in risk and climate change adaptation policies by examining possible changes in chemical risks according to accommodation of human life and uses of chemical substances. To cut down chemical risks, methods of choosing less toxic alternatives or managing exposure pathways and levels of exposures have been used. It, however, has recently gotten attention that the reduction methods can be interrupted by factors like climate change which has not been cogitated influential on the reduction. Previous environmental fate and exposure assessment models did not take into climate change. The impacts of climate change are very long-term and uncertain estimates and also appear differently counting on the regional, geographical, and seasonal attributes as presented in the multimedia fate model study of PAHs in the chapter 4 of this report. Keeping in mind that the impacts of climate change are not only global, but local and specific in many cases, appropriate responses to the impacts of climate change on chemical management should be prepared with the investigation of potential weaknesses of the current chemical management policies due to climate change. In particular, risk assessment which has been utilized as a means of chemical management policies could be more complex and difficult to conduct because it should deal with a wider range of environmental conditions in the future. It should be noticed that without prerequisite information such as chemical risk data, the reliability of the risk assessment could be impaired and consequentially, the efficiency of the environmental management policies found on the results of the risk assessment is very likely to be problematic. As seen earlier, it is anticipated that significant efforts for a long time should be made to change the current paradigm of risks and risk policies through the steps as follows: 1. The environmental factors which have been applied to the entire process of risk assessment should be replaced by new forms of the environmental factors reflecting the characteristics of the climate change in South Korea. 2. In order for the first step to be successful, it is indispensible to not only acquire environmental factors considering climate change, but also secure methods for confirming the changes in the risks due to the new forms of the environmental factors and the scientific evidences of the effects of these changes. 3. It is crucial that the existing paradigm of chemical risks is transformed to a paradigm which is competent for climate change. 4. It is compelling to put a fresh spotlight on the chemical groups which have been regulated and regulatory policies using the new chemical risk paradigm and also reevaluate management levels of these regulated chemicals. 5. It should be ascertained to find parts of current climate change and adaptation measures related to chemicals and include means for abating chemical risks in these parts. Built on the first year results of this research, the three main aims for the second year were developed as follows: 1. Suggesting a logic for regulatory prioritization of chemicals which are vulnerable to climate change, and among various environmental factors which impinge fate of chemicals, identify sensitive environmental factors to climate change, which should be ruminated first for managing chemical risks posed by climate change. 2. Investigating policies of major countries and international organizations for reducing or mitigating chemical risks due to climate change and analyze domestic and international regulatory measures for individual chemical among climate change-sensitive chemicals and chemical groups determined by this research. 3. Proposing regulatory levels of sensitive chemicals to climate change and also providing direction of domestic policies for managing chemical risks with consideration of climate change.

기후변화에 따른 미세먼지 대기질 변화 추정 및 관련 정책 지원 연구

이승민,최기철,최지원,나건수,이근민,김다솔 한국환경연구원 2021 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2021 No.-

Ⅰ. Background and Necessity of Research 1. Necessity □ The recent issue of inconsistency in the trend of air pollutant emission and changes of particulate matter (PM) concentration ○ According to the recent implementation of management policies by the Korean government to improve air quality affected by PM, air pollutant emission and (fine) PM concentrations in Seoul have been steadily decreasing since the early 2010s. ○ (Fine) PM concentration tends to stagnate at around the annual average PM_2.5 of 25μg/㎥ while repeatedly increasing or decreasing, in response to which the Korean government proposes strengthened measures to reduce the PM concentration every year. ○ The causes of the current issue of inconsistency between air pollutant emissions and the changes in (fine) PM concentration that has occurred despite the aforementioned efforts should be identified so as to suggest the direction for improving air quality management policy. □ Relationship between air quality affected by PM and climate ○ Studies showing that meteorology and climate play an important role in the occurrence of air pollutants, including PM, have been conducted globally; based on these studies, the relationship between air quality affected by PM and meteorological changes and climate change should be identified. ○ Several studies have been carried out to reveal the relationship between PM concentration and meteorological conditions and climate change; however, studies that clearly explain the relationship between climate change and air quality affected by PM in Korea are lacking. ○ Suggestions derived from specific base data based on the scientific analysis and quantitative evaluation of the influence of weather and climate are required to develop policy application measures. □ Quantitative analysis of the influence of climate on air quality affected by PM is needed to establish sophisticated PM management measures. ○ There are only a few studies among those ongoing that attempt to derive policy implications by identifying the relationship between air quality and climate, for example, by revealing the impact of climate change on air quality or predicting air quality concentrations in future climate change scenarios. ○ This study identified the relationship between PM concentration and weather/climate change based on the analysis of meteorological factors causing changes in PM concentration. Also, this study estimated how meteorological changes contribute to PM concentration and predicted future changes in PM concentration according to future climate change scenarios, based on which scientific data for the development of PM management policy was constructed and policy implications and policy improvement measures were proposed. □ Research objectives and main research content ○ Development of indicators of PM affected by weather and the analysis of future patterns of air quality affected by PM using the developed indices for analyzing the prospect of changes in high PM concentrations in future climate conditions. ○ Prediction of PM concentration changes taking into account climate change and emission reduction goals according to the future climate change scenarios for predicting the changes in meteorological impact on PM concentration in future climate conditions. ○ Deriving policy implications from the prediction results of air quality affected by PM due to climate change. Ⅱ. Predicting Changes in the Impact of Weather on the Annual Average PM Concentration in Future Climate 1. Research outline and methodology ○ This study aimed to identify the impact of meteorological change on fine PM concentration due to future climate change. ○ To identify the impact of changes due to climate change, seven years before and after the base year (2010) and the target year for achieving carbon neutrality (2050) have been set as the study periods. ○ Similar to the second-year research, only the influence of meteorological changes due to the present and future climate change has been analyzed, assuming that there is no change in emissions. 2. Changes in the domestic meteorological indices due to future climate change ○ To predict meteorological impact on the annual average PM concentration, domestic meteorological changes according to each index (temperature and wind speed) were analyzed based on a future climate scenario (RCP8.5). ○ The average temperature increases by 0.96% in the 2030s and 10.1% in the 2050s compared to the 2010s, while the average wind speed decreases by 0.69% in the 2030s and 0.68% in the 2050s. ○ Temperatures increase in all seasons until the 2050s; in particular, fall temperatures constantly increase. Summer and fall wind speeds show a decreasing trend. However, it is predicted that there may be no significant changes in the annual average wind speed as spring and winter wind speeds tend to increase. The number of stagnation days increases in all seasons in the 2050s compared to the 2010s. 3. Analysis of the impact of meteorological changes on fine PM concentration in future climate ○ The distribution of average concentration of fine PM in the 2010s and the 2050s (reflecting a future climate scenario) due to climate change and the difference of PM concentrations between the 2010s and the 2050s show that PM_2.5 concentration will decrease by -6% in the 2050s. Thus, it can be predicted that the average concentration level will drop. ○ Foreign influence on the fine PM concentration decreases by 8.6% while domestic contribution decreases by 1.6%, showing that domestic contribution is relatively greater in terms of the meteorological impact on fine PM concentration compared to the 2010s. ○ The number of days with fine PM concentration exceeding three times the average in the 2010s decreases, while the number of days with extreme concentration exceeding four times average increases (approximately by 24%). This implies that whereas the fine PM concentration is reduced under average meteorological conditions, days with very high concentration of fine PM increase, showing polarization. ○ Fine PM concentrations decrease in the 2050s compared to the 2010s in all seasons except summer (where they increase by approximately 4%). Ⅲ. Patterns in High Fine PM Concentrations in Future Climate Conditions 1. Method for analyzing changes in the occurrence of high PM concentrations in future climate conditions □ Necessity to develop FFI using factor analysis ○ In the future situation, since there is no observed value of fine PM, it is necessary to create an FFI that can represent the fluctuation characteristics of PM based on the relationship between fine PM concentration and weather to identify the changes. ○ Major factors of meteorological conditions related to fine PM concentration are extracted using factor analysis, and a multiple regression model that uses these factors as variables is constructed to perform FFI development. 2. Results of developing fine PM FFI using the factor analysis method □ FFI estimation method and analysis data ○ High- and low-concentration cases in winter between 2006 and 2014 were selected, and daily average PM_2.5 concentrations in Seoul during this period were used for analysis. ○ As meteorological data, temperature, geopotential height, U, V, and so on by daily anomaly values (1,000 hPa, 850 hPa, and 500 hPa) in the re-analyzed meteorological data in NCEP reanalysis Ⅱ were used. ○ The analysis area included the region where the Ural blocking (50~70°N, 65~95°E) occurs and the Korean peninsula (30~50°N, 110~140°E). □ Factor analysis for FFI estimation ○ According to the multiple regression model comprised of major factors, models 2 and 3 have the highest prediction accuracy; in particular, PM_2.5 is affected by factors 1 to 6. ○ Major meteorological components by factor related to high PM_2.5 concentration were analyzed (see Table 1). ○ High concentration cases accounted for more than 80% of the cases comprising the top 10% of the factors 2, 3, and 6; in the case of the factor 2, the occurrence of high concentration was predicted with 100% accuracy. Based on this, the components of factors 2, 3, and 6 were confirmed as being closely related to high concentration. □ Confirmation of the applicability of FFI based on past meteorological data ○ Application of FFI values to past climate conditions using the developed FFI. ○ Five models of CMIP6 were used as the climate data. These five models were INM-CM5-0, CanESM5, NorESM2-MM, BCC-CSM2-MR, and EC-Earth3, and historical data were used for each model. ○ The FFI values of historical run of Reanalysis (NCEP-DOE reanalysis Ⅱ) and five CMIP6 models have no significant difference with the number of days with high PM concentrations (observed values) and the average PM concentration of the days when high concentration occurred. ○ In general, there was a high frequency in the high concentration section of the fine PM (≥ 20μg/㎥and < 60μg/㎥) in the CMIP6 models and FFI of the reanalysis(NCEP-DOE reanalysis Ⅱ). However, the 10~40μg/㎥section showed the highest frequency in the observed data, confirming that FFI can assume normal days as high concentration cases. 3. Analysis of changes in the high fine PM concentration in future climate conditions using FFI □ Data analysis and methodology ○ The study period was winter seasons of the nine years between 2046 and 2054, similar to the period for index development, and the climate data used for analysis were SSP5-8.5 scenario data for five models of CMIP6. □ Analysis results of changes in high fine PM concentration occurrence in future climate conditions using FFI ○ To apply FFI values to future climate, the SSP5-8.5 scenario of five CMIP6 models was used to recalculate the values of six factors of the reanalysis field. ○ The frequency of high concentration events increased in three models (INM-CM5-0, CanESM5, and BCC-CSM2-MR), whereas NorESM2-MM and EC-Earth3 showed the same and decreased occurrence, respectively. The average values in days with high concentration increased in CanESM5 and BCC-CSM2-MR, whereas they decreased in NorESM2-MM and EC-Earth3. Thus, it was confirmed that in the case of the model where the number of days with high concentration increases in future climate, the average concentration tends to decrease. ○ All five models showed great fluctuations in the number of days with high concentration in both the past and future climates. Models CanESM5, NorESM2-MM, and EC-Earth3 showed an increasing trend in the frequency of high concentration events by year in the past climate; models CanESM5, NorESM2-MM, BCC-CSM2-MR, and EC-Earth3, however, showed an increased range of fluctuation by year in the frequency of high concentration events in the future climate. ○ Upon examining the frequency of each section of the FFI value for all cases, it was found that the FFI values of the future climate for each of the five models are concentrated in the range of 30~50μg/m³, similar to the FFI concentration section of the past climate. ○ Comparing the frequency of each high concentration section of the past and future climates, the INM-CM5 and CanESM5 models showed an increasing tendency in the future climate; however, on the contrary, the other three models showed a decreasing trend. 4. Predicting changes in the patterns of high PM concentration events using artificial neural network analysis □ Development of FFI using artificial neural network analysis ○ To improve prediction accuracy, artificial neural network analysis in addition to factor analysis was used for the development of FFI; high and low concentration cases in winter were selected, and after a total of 50 repeated predictions for each of three experiments (Experiment A, B, and C), the average of ten with high R values was selected. ○ The R values ranged between 0.660 and 0.699 (mean=0.671) in Experiment A, 0.648~0.684 (mean=0.681) in Experiment B, and 0.710~0.754 (mean=0.731) in Experiment C. ○ In the artificial neural network experiment, a better result was obtained when data of the single grid closest to Seoul was used than area average data of the Korean Peninsula and Russia. Experiment C, which showed the highest prediction accuracy, was selected to construct FFI. Ⅳ. Conclusions and Policy Implications □ Significance and limitations of study and policy implications ○ By confirming the contribution of meteorological changes to fine PM concentrations through emission fixed-meteorological change modeling, we have proved that the contribution of meteorological factors to the PM concentration is at a similar level to that of non-meteorological factors in recent years. Therefore, it is necessary to take climate change into consideration in addition to emission reduction for air quality management. ○ This is the first case to propose policy measures that take into account impacts of meteorological changes and climate change and to apply the result to the evaluation of policy performance through close communication with the stakeholders. In the future, more detailed development and assessment of air quality policy will be possible. ○ Moreover, it is expected that this study will contribute to raising the awareness of the importance of linking climate change and air management policy as the first case to practically evaluate the impact of meteorological changes and climate change on air quality. ○ As three models among five CMIP6 models predicted an increase in the frequency of high PM concentration events in a future warmer climate, the necessity of strengthened response to high PM concentrations which are an abnormal atmospheric phenomenon should be actively discussed and relevant policy measures should be strengthened. ○ Considering that a number of studies including this study have reported on the correlation between climate change and air quality, it is proposed that measures to link climate management policies (e.g., greenhouse gas reduction, climate change adaptation, and carbon neutrality) and air management policies be prepared with the aim of integrating climate management and air management in the future.