EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: A CONTINGENCY- AND RESOURCE DEPENDENCY-BASED ASSESSMENT

Itzhak Gnizy,John W. Cadogan,Jo?o S. Oliveira,Asmat-Nizam Abdul-Talib 글로벌지식마케팅경영학회 2018 Global Marketing Conference Vol.2018 No.07

Export diversification – the extent to which the firm seizes export sales opportunities across different nations and/or geographic regions – is a critical element of export marketing strategy. Yet, knowledge of the export performance consequences of export diversification is lacking. Underpinned by contingency and resource dependence theories, we examine the export diversification-export performance relationship as well as critical contingencies of this link. Based on a sample of UK exporters we find that firms gain the highest export performance benefits when they simultaneously increase national and regional export diversification. Our results also show that the export diversification-export performance link is weaker when firms operate in markets that are very in dynamism. Additionally, the relationship between export diversification and performance is stronger when both resource sharing and interfunctional coordination are high. Such contextual factors provide a better understanding of the diversification-performance relationship.

Services export diversification and services export revenue stability: does trade openness matter?

Sena Kimm Gnangnon 경희대학교 글로벌 통상·금융연구원 2021 International Trade, Politics and Development Vol.5 No.2

The international trade literature has established that export product diversification lowers export product revenue instability. The current analysis investigates whether this finding carries over services exports.The empirical analysis covers a sample of 152 countries over the period 1980–2014 and employs the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach.The empirical findings indicate that services export diversification reduces services export revenue instability both over the full sample as well as over sub-samples of high-income countries (HICs), least developed countries (LDCs) as well as developing countries (i.e. non-HICs) that are not LDCs. HICs appear to experience a higher positive effect of services export diversification on services export revenue instability than in developing countries. The analysis also shows that countries that further open-up to international trade enjoy a greater reducing effect of services export diversification on the instability of services export revenue.This analysis, therefore, adds to the existing studies on the relationship between export product diversification and the instability of revenue derived from goods exports by focusing on the services export side. An important message from the analysis is that countries that diversify their services export basket enjoy lower services export revenue instability when they further integrate into the world trade market.This study highlights the importance of services export diversification, including for stabilizing services export revenue to services traders. Diversifying services export items, including across traditional and modern services sectors involves the implementation of a wide range of policies and measures, of which the liberalization of the services sectors through reduction and eventually the elimination of services trade barriers; the improvement of the business environment and the development of domestic financial markets (see for example, Hoekman, 2017). It could be interesting that another study consider policies and measures that could promote services export diversification.To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time this topic is being addressed, including empirically.

한국의 대브라질 수출품목 다변화와 집중도 분석

윤택동 한국외국어대학교 중남미연구소 2019 중남미연구 Vol.38 No.1

In the country which has high degree of external dependence, there is high possibility of getting severe loss, when the export is concentrated on a small number of countries. This is because export could decrease drastically through the crisis of trade partner economy or with the conflict against partner country. Therefore, Korea consistently has pursued export diversification since 1960’s. In this sense, the export of Korea to Brazil also can be considered as a part of the export diversification strategy by Korea. The present study began from a question whether the export items of Korea to Brazil would be similar with those of Korea to World or to principal export destinations of Korea. Since it was possible that the exports of Korea to Brazil could be less diversified than those of Korea to developed economies, or those of Korea to Brazil could be of middle level technology, rather than strategic export items of high level technology. In the current paper, we will focus our analysis on the structure of Korean export products to Brazil. Export diversification is divided in two notions, regional export diversification and export diversification of items. It can be considered the growth of export from Korea to Brazil as the regional export diversification, while the analysis from export products’structure is considered as the diversification of export items. One characteristic of Korean exports to Brazil discovered here is that the percentage of first ranked export item is considerably high. Besides, 5 major exports have been maintained stable, making up approximately 80% of total exports, which means that these items are decisive in Korean export to Brazil. Also, the number of items that were ranked in the first 10 places each year throughout 1988-2017 is total 27. This 27 items has relation with diversification of export items. These two findings, a lot of weight of the major 5 items and 27 main export products, demonstrate simultaneously two different features, diversification and concentration,that Korean exports to Brazil has. Following introduction, in chapter 2, we discuss theoretical background of export diversification. In chapter 3, we talk about change in export items’structure of Korea to Brazil. Lastly, in chapter 4, we conclude our study, discussing characteristics that are present in Korean exports to Brazil. 대외의존도가 높은 국가의 경우 소수의 국가에 수출이 집중될 경우, 심각한 타격을 받을 가능성이 높아진다. 왜냐하면 만약 상대 국가가 위기에 빠지거나, 상대국가와 마찰이 생길 경우 수출이 급격히 줄어들 것이기 때문이다. 이런 이유로 한국은 그동안 꾸준히 수출다변화를 추구해왔다. 한국의 대브라질 수출 역시 수출다변화 전략의 한 부분이다. 본 연구 아이디어는 한국의 대브라질 수출품목이 한국의 전세계 또는 한국의 중요 수출파트너 국가에게 수출하는 품목들과 같을 것인가 아니면 차이가 있을 것인가 하는 궁금증에서 출발하였다. 개발도상국인 브라질에 대한 한국수출이 선진국에 비해 품목다양성이 적거나, 고도기술의 주된 전략수출품목이 아니라 중간기술 제품의 수출일 가능성 등에 의문이 있었기 때문이었다. 이번 연구에서는 한국의 대브라질 수출 중에서 수출품목구성에 대해 집중 분석을 한다. 한국의 대브라질 수출의 양적증가가 수출지역다변화라는 측면을 보여준다면, 한국의 대브라질 수출품목구성 변화는 수출품목다변화를 설명해줄 것이다. 이번 연구를 통해서 한국의 대브라질 수출에서 나타나는 특징은 1위 품목의 비중이 매우 높은 편이라는 점이다. 그리고 1-5위 품목의 비중이 80% 전후로 안정적으로 유지되고 있다는 즉 한국의 대브라질 수출은 5개 품목이 거의 결정하고 있다. 그리고 분석대상기간인 1988-2017년 사이에 년도별 1-10위 오른 품목이 총 27개로 이는 수출다변화와 관련되어 있다. 이렇게 1-5위 품목이 차지하는 높은 비중과 27개의 품목 등장이라는 두 가지 사실은 한국의 대브라질 수출에서 다변화와 집중화의 양면성을 동시에 설명해주고 있다. 서론에 이어 제 2장에서 수출다변화의 이론적 배경을 논의한다. 그리고 제 3장에서 한국의 대브라질 수출품목구성에서의 변화를 다루고, 마지막으로 제 4장에서 한국의 대브라질 수출에서 나타나는 특징을 논의하면서 결론짓는다.

브라질거시경제 변화와 한국의 대브라질수출 양적 변화 사이의 연관성분석: 1984-2017

윤택동 ( Yoon Taek Dong ) 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2021 국제지역연구 Vol.25 No.3

1960년대부터 한국경제는 수출을 통해 급속히 성장하였다. 초기에 소수 국가에 수출이 집중되었고, 이러한 위험을 피하기 위해, 1980년대부터 수출다변화를 추구하였다. 이러한 과정에서 한국의 대브라질수출 또한 1980년대부터 크게 증가하였다. 2011년에 브라질은 한국의 10번째 수출국가에 올랐었다. 한국의 중요 수출파트너 중에 하나인 브라질에 대해, 지난 50여년간 한국의 대브라질수출에서 어떤 일이 발생되었는지를 밝혀주는 연구는 거의 없는 상황이었다. 최근 1-2년 사이에 한국의 대브라질수출의 추세와 수출상품의 시대적 변화 그리고 대브라질수출의 한국경제와 상관관계를 살펴보는 논문 3편이 발표되었다. 이 논문들은 양적 분석에 집중하고 있다. 이번 연구에서는 이러한 양적 변화가 어떤 이유로 발생하게 되었는지 살펴보려 한다. 특히 한국의 대브라질수출과 브라질거시경제 사이의 관계에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 이를 통해 브라질경제의 변화에 따라 한국수출이 어떤 변화를 보여주었는지 살펴봄으로써 한국의 대브라질수출이 갖는 특징을 좀 더 자세히 이해할 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구는 서론에 이어 제 2장에서는 선행연구로서 최근 발표된 한국의 대브라질수출 관련 논문에 대해 살펴본다. 제 3장은 크게 두 부분으로 나눈다. 먼저 3.1절에서 이번 연구의 대상기간 (1984-2017년) 이전까지 브라질 거시경제 상황을 검토하여 대상기간에 대한 분석의 토대를 마련한다. 이어서 3.2절에서는 1984-2017년 사이 브라질거시경제의 정책/상황 변화가 한국의 대브라질수출에 미치는 영향이라는 관점에서 분석을 진행한다. 마지막으로 제4장에서, 한국의 대브라질수출과 관련한 다양한 시대구분과 함께, 브라질 거시경제와 한국의 대브라질수출은 (+)의 관계, 즉 강한 동행성을 보여준다는 결론으로 마무리 한다. Since the 1960s, the Korean economy has grown rapidly through exports. Initially these exports were concentrated in a small number of countries, and to avoid this risk -the vulnerability of concentration-, Korea tried the diversification of exports from the 1980s. In this process, Korea's exports to Brazil also increased significantly. In 2011, Brazil was the 10th largest country of Korea's export. Regarding Brazil, one of Korea's significant export partners, there are few studies on what has happened to Korea's exports to Brazil over the past 50 years. In the recent 1-2 years, three papers have been published examining the trend of Korea's exports to Brazil, the change of export products along time, and the correlation between the Korean economy and Korean exports to Brazil. These papers focus on quantitative analysis. In this study, we will analyse why this quantitative change occurred. In particular, it focuses on the relationship between Korea's exports to Brazil and Brazil's macroeconomic policy and situation. Through this study, we will be able to understand the characteristics of Korea's exports to Brazil more, checking how Korean exports to Brazil have changed as the Brazilian economy changes. Following the introduction, Chapter 2 examines 3 recently published papers on Korea's exports to Brazil as a prior study. Chapter 3 is divided into two parts. First, it reviews the macroeconomic policy and situation in Brazil before 1984, laying the groundwork for analysis of the target period (1984-2017). In section 3.2, it analyzes the impact of Brazil's macroeconomic changes on Korea's exports to Brazil. Finally, in Chapter 4, we conclude that Brazil's macroeconomic and Korea's exports to Brazil show a (+) relationship, or strong co-movement, showing 3 types of time divisions related to Korea's exports to Brazil over the last 40 years

원조와 해외직접투자가 수원국의 수출다각화에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

김태후(Tae-Hoo KIM),박명섭(Myong-Sop PAK) 한국무역상무학회 2020 貿易商務硏究 Vol.87 No.-

본 연구는 1995~2014 기간의 AfT 수원국의 불균형 패널데이터를 활용하여 고정효과 모형을 통해 AfT와 FDI 유입이 수원국의 수출고도화에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 그리고 두 가지 종류의 자본이 상호작용 하는지를 (서로를 보완하는지 대체하는지) 중심으로 실증적으로 살펴보고자 하였다. 본 연구에서의 ‘수출고도화’는 수출다각화를 중심으로 이루어졌으며 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 수원국에 AfT 재원이 투입되면 구조적으로 수원국의 수출다각화(집중영역의 수출다각화 포함)가 커지며, 이는 FDI가 그 영향을 더 증폭시켜 주었다. 반면 AfT가 확장영역의 수출다각화에 미치는 영향은 FDI의 영향을 받아 새로운 수출품목 · 지역으로의 확장 가능성이 오히려 줄어들었으며 이는 확장영역의 수출다각화에 있어 AfT와 FDI가 대체관계에 있음을 의미한다. AfT를 구성하는 세부요소들은 집중영역과 확장영역의 수출다각화를 포함한 불균등도에 대체로 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 경향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 즉 해당국가의 수출구조를 세계시장의 수출구조와 비교적 유사하게 개선시키는 효과가 있었으며 나아가 기존 수출품목 및 수출지역으로 수출이 집중되는 것을 방지하는 효과가 나타나는 경향이 있었다. 본 연구의 결과를 통해서도 알 수 있듯이 개도국은 해외원조 그 중에서도 AfT 성격의 원조를 적극 활용하여 자국의 수출을 다각화해야 할 것이다. This study aims to empirically estimate the effects of Aid for Trade and Foreign Direct Investigation on export diversification in recipient countries. The paper examines export diversification, AfT and FDI data from IMF, OECDCRS and UNCTAD database to analyze the determinants of export diversification in recipient countries from1995 to 2014 by using an fixed effect model. Export diversification had been attributed to a new export product and expanded exporting areas(extensive margin) rather than existing one and intra-structural diversification of exporting areas(intensive margin). The findings based on our empirical analysis suggest that total AfT flows have a positive impact on export diversification and FDI inflows also exert a positive effect on export diversification. Lastly AfT and FDI inflows are complement in achieving export diversification in recipient countries. Our results provide that the AfT flows would help recipient countries promote the diversification of their export product baskets, which would help them integrate into the multilateral trading system.

Determinants of Export Diversification in Developing Countries

Rossanto Dwi Handoyo,Solihin,Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim 대한산업공학회 2021 Industrial Engineeering & Management Systems Vol.20 No.4

This study unravels the impact of different determinants of export diversification in 62 developing countries classified as low, middle, and high-income over the period 2010-2018. The empirical strategy based on Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood revealed that GDP promotes the diversification of export in low, middle, and all countries’ samples and reduces it in high-income countries. Human capital reduces export diversification in low and middle-income countries and increases it in high-income and all countries’ samples. Population and countries’ competitiveness are associated with increased export diversification. Additionally, innovation does not affect diversification in all the country classifications while R&D significantly promotes diversification in middle-income and reduces it in low-income and all countries sample. The mediation effects of the variables are positive in the middle-income and high-income countries and mixed effect in low-income and all countries sample. The study, therefore recommends the need to develop human capital, increase global competitiveness, optimal use of resources for R&D to further increase export diversification in developing countries.

Effects of Free Trade Agreements and Market Openness on U.S. Export Diversification

( Geary Choe ) 서울대학교 미국학연구소 2011 미국학 Vol.34 No.2

Classical international trade theories emphasize comparative advantages that arise from specialization without taking into account the fact that specialization exposes the exporting country to product risk and market risk. Therefore, in the second half of the 20th century, economists have studied diversification strategies to manage export risk. However, there has been almost no empirical study on the U.S export diversification. At the same time, preferential trade arrangements are flourishing with the Doha round in a stalemate. This paper thus tries to examine the relationships between FTAs as well as trade openness on export diversification of the United States. Employing Hummels and Klenow`s intensive and extensive margins,proxies for degrees of export specialization and diversification, my empirical study suggests that trade openness of export partners increase the U.S. extensive margins while entering into FTAs increases the U.S. intensive margins. Extensive margins are often associated with export risk management while intensive margins tend to be regarded as increasing the total export value. This suggests that the U.S., just like any other country in the world, also faces an inherent tradeoff between greater returns due to specialization and greater exposure to shocks from the world market. The United States nevertheless remains in a strong position that allows it not to worry about export risks because it is currently exporting the largest number of categories among the world`s top 7 exporters to almost all the export markets in the world. Hence, the United States would be far better off by keeping up with its pursuit of FTAs rather than trying to urge its partners to open up more. Doing so would definitely help the U.S. increase its exports in absolute amount.

Effects of Free Trade Agreements and Market Openness on U.S. Export Diversification

최기열 서울대학교 미국학연구소 2011 미국학 Vol.34 No.2

Classical international trade theories emphasize comparative advantages that arise from specialization without taking into account the fact that specialization exposes the exporting country to product risk and market risk. Therefore, in the second half of the 20th century, economists have studied diversification strategies to manage export risk. However, there has been almost no empirical study on the U.S export diversification. At the same time, preferential trade arrangements are flourishing with the Doha round in a stalemate. This paper thus tries to examine the relationships between FTAs as well as trade openness on export diversification of the United States. Employing Hummels and Klenow’s intensive and extensive margins, proxies for degrees of export specialization and diversification, my empirical study suggests that trade openness of export partners increase the U.S. extensive margins while entering into FTAs increases the U.S. intensive margins. Extensive margins are often associated with export risk management while intensive margins tend to be regarded as increasing the total export value. This suggests that the U.S., just like any other country in the world, also faces an inherent tradeoff between greater returns due to specialization and greater exposure to shocks from the world market. The United States nevertheless remains in a strong position that allows it not to worry about export risks because it is currently exporting the largest number of categories among the world’s top 7 exporters to almost all the export markets in the world. Hence, the United States would be far better off by keeping up with its pursuit of FTAs rather than trying to urge its partners to open up more. Doing so would definitely help the U.S. increase its exports in absolute amount.

수출기업의 자원과 다각화가 초과 수익에 미치는 영향 : 합작투자의 조절 효과를 중심으로

오희화(Hee-Hwa Oh) 한국무역연구원 2021 무역연구 Vol.17 No.6

Purpose This paper was written to provide an understanding of the effects of internal resources and diversification strategies on abnormal return in exporters. In addition, the moderating effects of joint investment on the relationship between each of the diversification strategies and abnormal return were investigated. Design/Methodology/Approach Based critically on the resource-based theory of firm, this paper reviewed a theoretical framework for abnormal return, internal resources, diversification strategies, and joint investment. This paper also developed an empirically testable model explaining and predicting the relationships among abnormal return, internal resources, diversification strategies, and joint investment. Findings In an exporter, a marketing resource leads positively to product diversification and has an impact on abnormal return. Moreover, in an exporter, an innovation resource has an impact on product and international diversification strategies and thereby abnormal return. With respect to joint investment, this paper found that there is a significant relationship between joint venture membership and abnormal return. Furthermore, joint investment positively moderates the relationship between product and international diversification and abnormal return. Research Implications This paper emphasized the importance of internal resources and diversification strategies on abnormal return in exporters and highlighted the role of joint investment for exporters to create additional value.

Do Product and Geographic Diversification Mitigate the Impact of Global Trade Shocks?

최병화 동국대학교 사회과학연구원 2022 사회과학연구 Vol.29 No.4

This paper analyzes how product and geographic diversification affected the export performance of firms during the 2008-2009 trade collapse and the trade slowdown since 2012. Detailed transaction-level customs data from Taiwan over the period 2005-2014 indicate that product diversification during the pre-crisis stage significantly helped to mitigate the effect of the trade collapse on exports. Strong evidence also points to the important role of geographic diversification in mitigating the effect of the trade slowdown on exports. Based on these results, this study recommends the diversification of the export structure in terms of products and market destinations to attenuate the impact of global trade shocks. However, the effectiveness of a particular type of diversification remains dependent on the nature of the shock.