정치위험도 측정 평가모형 개발에 관한 연구

박범종 한국시민윤리학회 2016 한국시민윤리학회보 Vol.29 No.2

세계화와 신자유주의로 인한 글로벌 경쟁시대로 접어들면서 각국의 정치위험도에 대한 연구의 필요성이 커지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 정치위험에 대한 연구동향 분석과 정치위험 도 측정 평가모형을 개발하는데 그 목적이 있다. 1970년대 이후 정치위험에 대한 연구가 개념과 실증적 연구에 있어 정치적 요인을 배재 하고 경제적 요인에 치중해 있었다. 그 후 2000년 이후 국제테러리즘, 국내적 정치 환경의 급격한 변화에 따라 새로운 정치적 위험이 증가하고 있음에도 불구하고, 정부나 기업들의 정 치위험도에 한 관심은 매우 미비했다. 그리고 대부분의 정치위험도에 관한 연구가 외국에서 의 전문가들이나 학자 등에 의해서 이루어짐으로써 주관성에 너무 치우쳐 있었고, 경제적요 인인 보험이나 경제, 투자분야 요인에 치중해 정치위험이 분석되고 있었다. 그래서 외국인 기 업들이나, 정부가 정확하고 객관적으로 각국의 정치위험도를 평가할 수 있는 정치위험도의 측정모형의 개발은 매우 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 선행연구 분석을 통해 도출된 측정변수들을 토대로 정치위험도를 측정 평가하는 모형을 개발하였다. As globalization and neo-liberalism erupt into global competition, the need for research on the political risks of each country is increasing. The purpose of this study is to develop an analysis model of political risk and an evaluation model for political risk assessment. Since the 1970s, research on political risk has focused on economic factors, excluding political factors in conceptual and empirical research. Since 2000, there has been little interest in the political risks of governments and corporations, despite the increasing number of new political risks due to the rapid changes in international terrorism and domestic political environment. In particular, most of the studies on political risk were made by experts and scholars in foreign countries, so they were too biased toward subjectivity. Also, most of the economic factors such as insurance, economic and investment factors were focused on political risk. It is very important to develop a measurement model of political risk that foreign corporations and governments can accurately and objectively assess the political risks of each country. Therefore, this study developed a model to measure and evaluate political risk based on measured variables derived from previous research analysis.

해외자원개발기업의 리스크 관리 방안에 관한 사례연구

김석태(Sok-Tae Kim),이경수(Kyoung-Soo Lee) 한국무역연구원 2014 무역연구 Vol.10 No.2

The objective of this paper is to perform a case study on some of Korean firms which undertake overseas resources development and to set up a ground for effective risk management policies from firms and government s perspective. Risks associated with overseas resources development can be classified into three categories such as technical risk, financial risk and political risk. For in-depth case study, the most active top 10 firms are selected and closely surveyed The result shows that most of the firms studied maintain sort of technical risk management system, even mostly relying on outsourcing. As for the financial risk management, simple hedging method using forward contracts are implemented in most of the firms and no other systematic risk management systems are attempted. Only political risks are found to be monitored in a continuous manner. This study suggests some policy implications such as improving technical capability, establishing independent risk management system, and introducing well orchestrated government s efforts with related finns.

국제무역거래에서 선하증권의 위험관리에 관한연구

한낙현(Han Nak Hyun) 한국무역상무학회 2008 貿易商務硏究 Vol.37 No.-

Risk regarding the possibility of loss can be especially problematic. If a loss is certain to occur, it may be planned for in advance and treated as a definite, known expense. It is when there is uncertainty about the occurrence of a loss that risk becomes an important problem. The word risk is often used in connection with insurance. No one generally accepted definition of risk exists, however. Of the many definitions, two distinctive ones are commonly used. One defines risk as the variation in possible outcomes of an event based on chance. That is, the greater the number of different outcomes that may occur, the greater the risk. Another way of expressing this concept is to state: The greater the variation around an average expected loss, the greater the risk. The second definition of risk is the uncertainty concerning a possible loss. The definition of risk as a useful one because it focuses attention on the degree of risk in given situations. The degree of risk is a measure of the accuracy with which the outcome of an event based on chance can be predicted. For now, it will serve our purpose to note the more accurate the prediction of the outcome of an event based on chance, the lower the degree of risk. After sources of risks are identified and measured, a decision can be made as to how the risk should be handled. A pure risk that is not identified does not disappear, the business merely loses the opportunity to consciously decide on the best technique for dealing with that risk. The process used to systematically manage risk exposures is known as risk management. Some persons use the term risk management only in connection with businesses, and often the term refers only to the management of pure risks. In this sense, the traditional risk management goal has been to minimize the cost of pure risk to the company. But as firms broaden the ways that they view and manage many different types of risk, the need for new terminology has become apparent. The terms integrated risk management and enterprise risk management reflect the intent to manage all forms of risk, regardless of type. International trade transaction is called between countries has features of globalism, cultural gap, long distance and long terms for the transaction. It is riskier than domestic transaction has its specific risks, such as foreign exchange risk and political risk, and requires various active risk management skills. Risks in relation to the international trade transaction are the contract risk, transit risk and payment risk, etc. The risk management in relation to the international trade transaction is to identify and measure these risks. The purpose of this study is to analyse the practical problems and its solution plan by analyzing various cases related to the risk management of bill of lading in the international trade transaction.

중앙아시아 진출 한국기업의 투자리스크 유형과 대응: 카자흐스탄 및 우즈베키스탄 투자기업을 중심으로

박지원 ( Ji Won Park ) 한국외국어대학교 중동연구소 2013 중동연구 Vol.32 No.1

Due to the continued economic growth of Central Asian countries after the transition period, the Korean companies`investment in this area has been rising steadily. The investment of Korean firms is especially focused on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While promoting the transition to a market economy, these countries strive to improve the investment environment for the inflow of foreign investment. But, like most of the foreign companies experience political risk in foreign market, in these countries also exist political risks resulting from outside the company environment like characteristics as the developing countries, the authoritarian system and etc. This paper investigates and classifies the political risk that Korean companies faces with in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan using quantitative analysis based on the survey of Korean companies in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The result shows that the risk could be classified as governmental-related risk, macro-societal risk, micro-societal risk, and macro-economic risk. Among them, Korean companies assessed that the micro-societal risk including corruption and uncertainty in the market is the most affected factor. The risk management was classified by active and passive one. Korean companies preferred active management to strengthen relations with the locals.

위험사회의 사회심리학: 위험인식의 주관적 구성을 중심으로

김수아 ( Su-a Kim ),임동균 ( Dong-kyun Im ) 고려대학교 한국사회연구소 2016 한국사회 Vol.17 No.2

본 연구는 개인들의 주관적 위험인식이 또 다른 주관적 변인들에 의해 어떻게 구성 되는지를 봄으로써, 위험의 사회심리적 구성을 살펴보고자 한다. 분석은 2013년 한국종합사회조사의 위험사회에 대한 국민의식조사를 활용하였다. 5가지 종류의 위험(건강, 생애주기, 사회생활, 경제생활, 정치/대외관계)과 3가지 수준의 위험관련 주체(개인, 사회, 국가)를 조합한 15개의 종속변수를 활용하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 계층의식과 사회적 신뢰 같은 주관적 태도 변수들이 위험인식에 가장 일관되고 유의미한 영향력을 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 가구소득 수준은 전반적으로 효과가 유의미하지 않은 반면, 주관적 계층의식이 대부분의 영역에 걸쳐 유의미한 효과를 보이는 대비를 보였다. 본 연구는 기존 연구들이 위험의 불평등한 분포를 강조면서 경제적 불평등의 영향을 조명한 것에 비해, 개인들의 위험인식에는 주관적 요인들이 강한 영향을 미친다는 점을 보여준다. This study examines how individuals` risk perceptions are shaped not only by their demographic, socioeconomic conditions but also by their subjective attitudes and social cognition. Focusing on three kinds of subjective determinants, namely subjective class position, political orientation, and social trust, this paper sought to highlight the social psychological aspect of risk perception formation. We employed 2013 Korean General Social Survey (KGSS) on public opinion on risk society. We focused on five kinds of risks (i.e., health, life course, social life, economic life, and political and international relations risks) and three kinds of risk-related subjects (i.e., individual, society, and the country), thereby producing fifteen dependent variables by combining the two dimensions using factor analysis. The results show that the subjective variables, particularly social trust and subjective class position, exhibited very significant effects on individuals` risk perceptions. They showed more significant and much stronger effect on risk perceptions than most other objective variables such as age, gender, family income, and urban residence. The only objective variable that showed relatively strong and significant effect on risk perceptions is the level of education. In general, more education led to stronger perceptions of risk. The effect of family income on one`s risk perceptions is non-significant in most areas of risk perceptions, while subjective class position shows highly significant effect in the majority of fifteen risk perceptions. Overall, results of the empirical analysis show that, in contrast to many previous studies that emphasized how risk is unevenly distributed among individuals according to their objective socioeconomic conditions, individuals` risk perceptions are largely determined by subjective factors such as their subjective understanding of themselves, political attitudes, and trust, even more strongly than by their objective conditions.

How Singapore Companies in Asean Manage Political Risk

Tracy Chan Su Yin,Douglas Sikorski,Louis Ta Huu Phuong 서울대학교 경제연구소 2003 Seoul journal of economics Vol.16 No.1

The Asian crisis served as a reminder to businessmen how fragile the world economic and political scene can be and how dangerous it was to base foreign direct investment decisions on optimistic perceptions of unending economic boom. Perceptions, whether or not they reflect actual realities in the business environment, play a very important role in the investment decisions of many corporations. This study examines the perceptions of decision-makers of Singapore companies operating in ASEAN. What are the sorts of factors that shape their perceptions and help them form a "gut feeling" about the quality of their investments? In particular this study looks at non-quantitative, non-market aspects of investment decisions, generally defined as political risk. Political risk is measured by an assessment of how managers perceive the sociopolitical conditions in the host country and the likely effect on the business climate. Thus, we have attempted to reveal the relative importance of various factors associated with socio-political risk assessment for sample firms operating in ASEAN and the significance of particular risk factors. Likewise, we examined the risk assessment methods and risk management strategies used by Singapore-based companies.

Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Leaks of Korean Import and Export Companies on Risk Management

Je Hong, Lee 한국무역금융보험학회(구 한국무역보험학회) 2020 무역보험연구 Vol.21 No.4

무역거래에서 발생하는 리스크를 해소하는 방법에는 여러 가지가 있지만 본 연구에서는 무역 보험제도를 활용하여 리스크를 예방하는 방법과 사후관리제도인 중재법을 활용한 중재제도를 활용하여 리스크를 감소하는 방법 그리고 무역당사자간에 협상 및 커뮤니케이션을 통해 완만 하게 해결하는 방법이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 리스크 결정요인인 정치적 리스크, 신용 리스크, 환율변동 리스크, 화물 운송리스크가 무역보험제도 활용, 상재중재 활용에 미치는 영 향을 분석하고자 한다. 이와 같은 분석을 통하여 무역거래 리스크 발생시 어떠한 방식이 효율 적 해결방법인가를 찾아내어 무역증진에 도움을 주고자 하는데 본 연구의 목적이 있다. 실증분석 결과 무역 리스크 요인이 리스크 관리에 영향을 미치는 요인을 보면, 당사국의 정치 적 리스크, 신용리스크, 환율변동 리스크, 화물운송 리스크 등이 주요 위험의 요인 중에 환율변 동 리스크를 제외하고는 무역보험제도 활용에 유의한 영향을 미치고 있으며, 또한 상사중재제 도 활용에서도 환율변동 리스크가 유의하지 않은 영향을 미치고 있다. 이는 수출입 리스크 관 리에 영향을 미치지 않는 요인으로 환율변동 리스크가 유의하지 않고 있다. 이는 무역업체가 무역을 실시하면서 발생하는 리크스 관리요인에 정치적 리크스, 신용리스크, 화물운송 리스크 요인이 무역리스크의 효율적 관리에 적합하지만, 환율변동 리스크는 영향을 미치지 않는다는 점이다. 이는 수출입 업자는 환율변동에 대한 리스크는 일반적으로 무역 관 리차원에서 조정하는 것이 아니라 시장환경 변화에 맡기는 경향이 있다. Purpose : The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of political risk, credit risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, and cargo transportation risk, which are the determining factors of risk, on the use of trade insurance system and commercial arbitration. The purpose of this study is to find out which method is an efficient solution to trade transaction risk through such analysis and help promote trade. Research design, data, methodology : In addition, a questionnaire survey method was used to empirically analyze the impact on risk management of Korean import and export companies. The sample was surveyed on small and medium-sized import and export enterprises in Gwangju Metropolitan City and Jeonnam. The research model used the risks of trading companies such as emergency risk, credit risk, corporate risk, interest rate fluctuation and currency fluctuation risk. In addition, constituent factors were utilized as constituent factors such as emergency risk, credit risk, currency risk, and transportation risk, which cause unexpected losses such as impossibility of fulfillment of trade contracts, inability to recover import and export payments, loss of currency exchange, and loss of transport cargo. Results : As a result of the empirical analysis, if the factors of trade risk affect risk management, political risk, credit risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, freight transport risk, etc. are among the main risk factors. In addition, the exchange rate fluctuation risk has an insignificant effect on the use of the commercial arbitration system. This is a factor that does not affect import and export risk management, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations is not significant. Conclusions : Political leaks, credit risk, and cargo transportation risk factors are suitable for efficient management of trade risk, but exchange rate fluctuation risk does not affect the risk management factors that occur when trading companies conduct trade. This means that importers and exporters tend to leave the risk of exchange rate fluctuations to changes in the market environment, rather than to adjust them in terms of trade management. In other words, exchange rate fluctuations change under too diversified circumstances, which means that it is a factor that deviates from the management aspect of importers and exports. In the future, traders must develop and respond to import and export risk factors in order to actively respond in a diversified and diversified environment.

중국인의 관광위험지각이 한국 방문의도와 관광지 전환행동에 미치는 영향

정귀,박상희 대한관광경영학회 2017 觀光硏究 Vol.32 No.8

본 연구의 목적은 중국인이 느끼는 한국 관광위험지각의 요인을 분석하고, 관광위험지각 요인이 한국 방문의도와 관광지 전환행동에 미치는 영향관계에 대하여 규명하여 중국인들의 방한 의도를 높이고 다른 해외 관광지로 전환하는 행동을 막기 위한 시사점을 제공하고자 하는데 있다. 본 연구의 조사 대상은 중국 현지에 거주하는 중국인을 대상으로 온라인 설문을 실시하였으며, 응답한 370부의 설문 중 불성실 응답 설문지 40부를 제외한 총 330부를 최종 유효 표본으로 선정하고 실증분석을 실시하였다. 분석 방법은 통계패키지 프로그램인 SPSS 21.0을 활용하였고, 표본의 인구통계학적특성을 파악하기 위해 빈도분석, 설문 문항에 대한 탐색적 요인분석 및 신뢰도분석, 연구의 가설검증을 위하여 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 연구 결과 관광위험지각의 요인은 기능, 범죄, 질병, 안전, 정치, 경제의 6개 요인으로 명명되었다. 가설 1의 검증결과, 6가지의 관광위험지각 요인은 모두 한국방문의도에 유의한 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 가설 2의 검증결과 6가지의 관광위험지각 요인은 모두 관광지 전환행동에 유의한 부(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 가설 3, 4의 연구결과 한국 방문의도는 관광객의 관광지 전환행동에 유의한 부(-)의 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. The purpose of this study is to identify Chinese tourism risk perception to Korea and to investigate the impact of Chinese tourism risk perception on visiting intention to Korea and touristic conversion behavior. The survey was conducted for 1 month from November 1 through December 1, 2017. This study used 330 sheets for final analysis excluding 40 sheets that were not useful as data after distributing a total of 370 questionnaires. For frequency analysis., the collected data was statistically analyzed by SPSS 21.0 package. The results of the proof analysis on the hypothesis established in this study can be summarized as follows. First, the attributes about Chinese tourism risk perception to Korea were six including crime risk. disease risk, political risk, economical risk, safety risk, and functional risk Second, all six attributes about Chinese tourism risk perception to Korea have significant influences(-) on intention to visit Korea. Third, all six attributes about Chinese tourism risk perception to Korea have significant influences(+) on touristic conversion behavior. Forth, intention to visit Korea has a significant influences(-) on touristic conversion behavior.

아세안 국가 FDI 결정요인에 관한 연구 : 정치적 리스크를 중심으로

신진원,조예영,김석수 한국국제경영관리학회 2021 국제경영리뷰 Vol.25 No.2

본 연구는 아세안 FDI 유입 결정요인을 정치적 리스크 관점에서 분석한 논문이다. 연구에서는 정치적 리스크를 세분화하고 특징을 확인하기 위해 요인분석으로 분류하였고 패널회귀분석을 통해 FDI 유입 결정요인을 분석하였다. 2장에서는 FDI 유입의 결정요인과 아세안 FDI의 추세를 살펴보고 이와 관련된 선행연구를 분석하였다. 3장에서는 아세안 국가의 FDI 유입 결정요인 분석을 위한 연구 모형을 설정하고 데이터를 수집하며, 결과에 대한 해석을 기술하였다. 마지막으로 4장에서는 본 연구가 갖는 함의와 한계점을 정리하 였다. 연구의 분석 세분화를 위하여 정치적 리스크의 합산지수 및 요인분석을 통한 개별지수로 연구모형을 구분하여 분석하였다. 합 산지수 분석결과 정치적 리스크가 아세안 FDI 유입과 음의 관계에 있는 것을 확인했으며, 개별지수 분석결과 행정적 리스크와 법적 리스크 모두 통계적으로 유의한 변수임을 확인하였다. 그러나 요인분석에서 제거된 정부의 민주적 책임성은 FDI 유입량과 통계적인 유의성은 나타나지 않았다. 본 연구가 갖는 함의와 한계점을 언급하면서 논문을 마무리하고자 한다. 본 연구가 갖는 연구의 시사점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 지역 을 기반으로 한 연구로서 아세안 국가만이 갖는 FDI 유입 결정요인의 특징을 파악하고 이를 분석하였다. 둘째, 정치적 리스크 데이터 를 통해 양적연구모형을 구성했으며, 이를 바탕으로 FDI 유입 결정요인으로서 정치적 리스크의 중요성을 부각시켰다. 셋째, 아세안 국가의 관점에서는 FDI를 유치하기 위해 정치적 리스크 관리항목을 제시하였다. This research is about the determinants of ASEAN foreign direct investment inflow from the perspective of political risk. In this research, a political risk was classified as factor analysis to subdivide and characterize them, using a panel regression analysis to analyze the determinants of foreign direct investment inflow. It attempts to be differentiated by investigating which political factors affects in foreign direct investment inflow. In Chapter 2, we examined the determinants of FDI and trends of FDI in ASEAN and analyzed related previous studies. In Chapter 3, we established a research model for analyzing the determinants of FDI in ASEAN countries, collected data, and described the interpretation of the results. Finally, in Chapter 4, we organized the implications and limitations of this study. In order to subdivide the analysis of research, the research model was analyzed by separating it into total indices of political risk and segmented indices through factor analysis. The analysis result of total indices, political risk has a negative effect on FDI in ASEAN, and a analysis result of segmented indices, both administrative risk and legal risk have statistically significant variables. However, the democratic responsibility of government, which was eliminated from the factor analysis, has no a statistically significant to the inflow of FDI. This research has implications as follows. First, as a region based study, the characteristics of the determinants of FDI that only ASEAN countries have been identified and analyzed. Second, a quantitative research model was constructed through political risk data, and based on this, emerged the importance of political risk as a determinant of FDI. Third, from the perspective of ASEAN countries, the factors of political risk needed to be managed was presented to attract FDI.

Risk, Reflexivity and Sub-politics: Environmental Politics in Hong Kong

Raymond K. H. Chan 서울대학교행정대학원 2008 Asian Journal of Political Science Vol.16 No.3

Increasing attention has been drawn to the risk posed by air pollution, a risk that haswide-ranging effects (on the environment, health, the economy, culture, urban designand politics). New environmental movements and political agendas have emerged in thepast 10 years. A growing number of social groups have been formed to express theirconcerns and challenge established laws and rules. This paper will borrow Ulrich Beck’sconcepts of risk, reflexivity and sub-politics to analyse the new social movement thataddresses air quality in Hong Kong. While previous environmental problems wereconsidered manageable, air pollution is a risk that seems to defy solution. As a result ofthe institutional failure to deal with this risk, there has been a new alignment of interestsand the emergence of a new form of politics*a sub-politics that leads to a sharing ofpower between established and informal politics, and the government and society. Although established political institutions have been receptive, altering the rules andincreasing public participation, the extent of sub-politicization is still limited. This is due,in part, to the overall absence of reflexive self-regulation among individuals in thesociety, which might lead to a state of ‘disorganized irresponsibility’.