골든타임 확보를 위한 119안전센터 설치기준 개선방안 마련 연구

고하영,김지민,임혜진,금기정 한국방재학회 2022 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.22 No.4

Despite continuous efforts to secure the fire “golden time,” such as implementing an emergency vehicle pre-emption system and expanding the dispatch zone, the arrival rate of fire engines within the golden time in Korea averaged 68% nationwide as of 2019. In particular, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, and Gyeongbuk recorded less than half of arrivals in the golden time. Securing the golden time is directly related to fire extinguishing time and casualties, so efforts to shorten the dispatch time are being made; however, research on the standards for establishing fire stations is insufficient. Under the current law, 119 safety centers are established based on the population and area, so regional characteristics, such as use districts, land use patterns, and urban density, cannot be considered. The purpose of this study was to analyze quantitatively the influence of such factors on the arrival rate within the golden time through binary logistic regression analysis and to suggest directions for improving the current 119 safety center establishment standards. It was found that the arrival rate within the golden time is affected by land use patterns, and it was determined that 119 safety centers are currently somewhat concentrated in residential and commercial areas. In addition, the arrival rate within the golden time increases when local governments install an emergency vehicle pre-emption system. Finally, the arrival rate within the golden time was low in the case of fire on roads caused by traffic accidents and vehicle defects. In the future, if the spatial scope of analysis can be expanded nationwide and fire engine dispatch routes can be used, the arrival rate within the golden time can be increased by creating guidelines for establishing 119 safety centers considering the regional characteristics of each local government. 최근 소방차의 골든타임 확보를 위해 긴급차량 우선신호 시스템, 관할 구역을 없앤 출동체계로의 변경 등 지속적인 노력에도 불구하고 2019년 기준 화재발생에 따른 소방차의 골든타임 확보율은 전국 평균 68%를 기록하였다. 특히 경기, 강원, 경북은 절반에도 미치지 못하는 골든타임 도착률을 기록하였다. 화재 시 골든타임 확보는 진화시간 및 인명피해와 직접적 연관이 있어 출동 시 통행 지체를 최소화하려는 시도는 이루어지고 있으나, 소방서 설치 기준 및 위치에 대한 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 현행법 상 119안전센터는 관할 인구와 면적을 기준으로 설치되고 있어 용도지역과 토지이용, 건물의 밀도 등 지역적 특성을 고려할 수 없다. 본 연구에서는 경기도를 대상으로 이항 로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해 골든타임 내 도착률에 미치는 요인들의 영향력을 계량적으로 분석하여 현재 119안전센터 설치기준의 개선방향을 제시하는 것이 본 연구의 목적이다. 그 결과 첫째, 화재 시 소방차 골든타임 확보여부는 화재발생지의 토지이용특성에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났으며, 현재 119안전센터는 주거지, 상업지에 다소 밀집되어 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 긴급차량 우선신호 시스템이 설치되어 있는 지자체에서는 미시행 지자체 대비 골든타임 확보율이 증가하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 셋째, 교통사고, 자동차 결함 등으로 인한 도로에서의 화재발생 시 골든타임 확보율이 낮은 수준으로 분석되었다. 향후 분석의 공간적 범위를 전국 단위로 확대하고 소방차의 출동경로 정보를 활용할 수 있다면, 지자체별 출동유형 특성을 고려한 119안전센터 설치 가이드라인을 제시함으로써 기존 물리적 한계로 인한 골든타임 미확보 문제를 개선할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Prediction of golden time using SVR for recovering SIS under severe accidents

Yoo, Kwae Hwan,Back, Ju Hyun,Na, Man Gyun,Kim, Jae Hwan,Hur, Seop,Kim, Chang Hwoi Elsevier 2016 Annals of nuclear energy Vol.94 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are designed in consideration of design basis accidents (DBAs). However, if the safety injection system (SIS) is not working properly in a loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) situation, it can induce a severe accident that exceeds DBAs. Therefore, it is important to properly actuate the SIS before a DBA becomes a severe accident. If the SIS is not working in time, the reactor core may be uncovered and the reactor vessel (RV) may be damaged. In this paper, we defined the golden time as the available time from an initial SIS malfunction for actuating the SIS to prevent reactor core uncovery and RV failure. A support vector regression (SVR) model was applied to predict the golden time. The input variables and parameters of the SVR model were selected and optimized by using a genetic algorithm. The data set of severe accident scenarios was obtained by using the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code. An optimized power reactor (OPR1000) was used for the simulations. It was shown that that the proposed SVR model could predict the golden time accurately.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> If the safety injection system is not working in time, the reactor vessel may be damaged. </LI> <LI> It is important to properly actuate the SIS before a DBA becomes a severe accident. </LI> <LI> Golden time is defined as the available time from an initial SIS malfunction for recovering SIS. </LI> <LI> A support vector regression (SVR) model was applied to predict the golden time. </LI> <LI> It was shown that the proposed SVR model could predict the golden time accurately. </LI> </UL> </P>

소방서비스 분석을 통한 소방관서 입지분석 방법론 탐구: 골든타임 데이터를 중심으로

장새움(Saewoom Jang),정주철(Juchul Jung),하경준(Gyoungjun Ha) 한국방재학회 2022 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.22 No.5

최근 대형 화재사고 발생 및 소방공무원 국가직 등의 이슈를 통해 소방서비스가 주목받고 있다. 소방관서 입지 및 신설은시⋅도지사의 권한으로 지방자치단체에서는 균등한 소방서비스 제공을 위한 새로운 지표를 제공해야 할 시점이 왔다. 본연구에서는 추후 지방자치단체가 균등한 소방서비스를 제공하기 위한 방법론을 제공하기 위해 수행되었다. 골든타임 미처리건수를 주요 지표로 사용하고 핫스팟분석을 통해 소방서비스가 취약한 지역을 도출하였다. 경상남도 시⋅군지역은 규모가 다양하기에 이를 고려하여 3가지(골든타임 미처리건수, 천명 당 골든타임 미처리건수, 1 km2당 골든타임 미처리건수) 지표를 분석하였다. 골든타임 미처리건수 및 km2당 골든타임 미처리건수는 경남의 동부 시 지역, 천명 당 골든타임 미처리건수는 경남 서부지역의군지역에서 소방서비스가 취약한 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 지표 및 방법론을 활용한다면 추후 지방자치단체 소방관서 신설계획시 소방관서 입지를 제안할 수 있는 주요한 기준 중 하나로 활용할 수 있을 것이다. Recently, fire services have attracted considerable attention owing to issues such as the occurrence of large-scale fire accidents and the national position of firefighters. The location and establishment of fire stations is under the authority of the cities and counties (Si-Gun) governor, and local governments should provide new indicators for the provision of adequate fire service. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for enabling local governments to provide adequate fire services in the future. The number of “missed golden times” was used as the main indicator, and areas with weak fire services were identified through hotspot analysis. The city and county (Si-Gun) regions of Gyeongsangnam-do province are diversely scaled. Therefore, we analyzed three pertinent aspects: missed golden times’ “missed golden times per 1,000 people,” and “missed golden times per square kilometer.” The analysis yields hotspots for missed golden times and missed golden times per square kilometer in cities toward the east of Gyeongsangnam-do province and the hotspots for missed golden times per 1,000 people in counties of western Gyeongsangnam-do province. These indicators and methodologies, if applied, can serve as one of the major criteria for selecting the location for a new local governmental fire station in the future.

서울시 화재 취약지역 예측 및 소방력 공간 최적화 연구

임도혁,김채완,강완모 한국지적정보학회 2024 한국지적정보학회지 Vol.26 No.1

최근 국내에서 화재로 인한 인명과 재산 피해가 증가하는 추세이다. 이러한 화재에 신속하게 대응하고 피해를 최소화하기 위해 골든타임 5분 확보의 중요성이 강조되고 있다. 하지만 높은 주거지역 밀도와 교통량 증가로 인해 파생되는 문제들로 골든타임 내 화재현장 도착이 제한되고 있다. 특히, 서울시는 인구 밀집도가 높아 재산피해와 더불어 인명피해의 위험성이 다른 지역에 비해 높게 나타나는 실정으로 골든타임 확보를 위한 최적의 경로 선정과 효율적인 소방력 공간 배치가 요구되고 있다. 이 연구는 서울시를 대상으로 실제 소방차량의 주행속력과 도달시간, 도로 특성을 고려한 첨두시간 및 비첨두시간의 접근성을 Random Forest 회귀모델과 네트워크 분석을 활용하여 분석하였다. 또한, 건물 특성을 고려한 화재위험 평가를 통해 골든타임 내 도달이 어렵고 화재위험성이 높은 지역을 도출하였다. 아울러, 커널 밀도와 핫스팟 분석으로 소방차량 근접배치 지점을 선정하고, 이에 따른 개선 효과를 정량적으로 분석하였다. Random Forest로 분석한 주행속력에 대한 도로 특성의 영향 중 방향전환이 첨두시간과 비첨두시간 모두 출동속력 저해요인으로 작용하였고, 차로 수가 많을수록 출동속력이 개선되는 것으로 나타났으나 첨두시간과 비첨두시간 영향의 차이가 약 네 배에 달하였다. 서울시 법정동 수준에서 첨두시간 골든타임 내 도달 유무와 화재위험 평가 결과, 사당동과 정릉동의 화재 취약성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 자치구 수준에서는 과거 화재발생이 많았던 강남구, 관악구, 송파구에서 높은 화재위험성을 보였다. 화재 취약성 개선을 위한 주요 개선지점 17곳이 제시되었으며, 첨두시간에 논현초등학교, 개봉중앙시장, 방화주유소 인근으로 소방차량을 근접배치하였을 때 개선효과가 큰 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이 연구를 통해 도로 특성이 첨두시간과 비첨두시간의 소방차량 출동속력에 미치는 영향을 파악하고, 골든타임 확보 및 화재위험성 취약지역과 주요 개선지점에서의 시행효과를 정량적으로 평가할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 시간대와 도로 특성을 고려한 소방 긴급차량 최적운용 의사결정에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. The number of casualties and property damage caused by fires has been increasing in Korea recently. Emphasis has been placed on the critical importance of securing a golden time of 5 minutes to effectively respond to such fire incidents and minimize losses. However, achieving timely arrival at fire scenes within this crucial time frame is challenging due to high residential density and increased traffic. Particularly in Seoul, where population density is notably high, the risk of both human casualties and property damage is elevated compared to other regions. Consequently, optimal route selection and efficient spatial deployment of firefighting resources are essential for securing the golden time. This study conducted a comprehensive assessment of fire risk by considering actual fire truck speeds, arrival times, road characteristics, and building features in Seoul using Random Forest and network analysis. We identified areas where achieving the golden time is difficult and fire risk is substantial. Additionally, using kernel density and hot spot analysis, improvement strategies were proposed by selecting optimal locations for fire truck proximity, and the resulting effects were quantitatively analyzed. This study revealed that among the road characteristics, turning frequency impede fire truck speeds during both peak and off-peak hours, and the number of lanes enhance dispatch speed, but the impact difference between the peak and non-peak times was about four times. At the Dong-level, Sa-dang and Jeongneung-dong showed high fire vulnerability based on both peak-hour golden time accessibility and fire risk assessment. At the Gu-level, Gangnam-gu, Gwanak-gu, and Songpa-gu demonstrated heightened vulnerability due to their history of frequent fire incidents. To mitigate fire vulnerability, 17 key improvement areas were identified and then analyzing the effect of fire truck proximity deployment to these locations during peak hours revealed significant enhancement when positioned near Nonhyeon Elementary School, Geumjeong Central Market, and the vicinity of Banghwa Gas Station. This study contributes to understanding how road characteristics impact fire truck response speeds during peak and off-peak times. Furthermore, it provides a quantitative evaluation of implementing measures to secure the golden time and reduce fire risk in vulnerable areas. These results are expected to inform optimal decision-making for emergency fire vehicle operations, considering time frames and road conditions.

심정지 사고에 대한 황금시간(Golden Time) 검증

Jong Seok Won,Dae Yoo Go 위기관리 이론과 실천 2016 Crisisonomy Vol.12 No.7

이 연구는 서울시 55개 재난 유형 중 하나인 심정지 사고의 황금시간을 검증하였다. 소방재난본부의 구급데이터 자료(기간: 2010~2012년) 4,055건을 분석에 활용하였으며 ‘구급대원이 출동하여 심폐소생술을 해야 하는 시간 4분 이내’의 효과성을 검증하였다. 분석방법은 출동시간 구간별 회귀분석을 실시하였으며, 무상관추정(SUEST: seemingly unrelated estimation)을 통한 사후 검증을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 구급대원의 도착시간은 평균 5.7분으로 확인되었으며 출동시간은 점차 개선되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 출동시간 별 구간을 8개로 구분하여 구급효과성과의 관계를 분석한 결과 ‘4분 이내’가 심정지의 황금시간으로 적절하다는 것이 입증되었다. 이 연구는 심정지의 황금시간 4분을 통계적으로 확정하려는 시도를 최초로 하였다는 점에서 구조⋅구급과 관련된 연구 분야에 큰 의미를 가진다. This study verified the “golden time” in cardiac arrests, one of the 55 disaster types identified by Seoul. 4,055 cases from the rescue and EMS data maintained by Seoul Metropolitan Fire & Disaster Headquarters (2010~2012) were used to verify the effectiveness of CPR performed by paramedics within 4 minutes. A regression analysis was conducted for each of the 8 response time sections and the post-verification was carried out through SUEST (Seemingly Unrelated Estimation). The average arrival time was found to be 5.7 minutes and the response time appeared to improve gradually. The analysis of the relationship between response time and the effectiveness of first aid showed that “within 4 minutes” is the most appropriate golden time for treatment of cardiac arrests. This study has great implications for the field of rescue and EMS as it made the first attempt to confirm a statistical significance of “within 4 minutes” as the golden time in cardiac arrests.

인질범죄에 대한 형의 임의적 감경 규정의 실효성 분석 연구 - 법경제학적인 논의를 중심으로 -

이경렬,유다겸,윤은파 한국피해자학회 2023 被害者學硏究 Vol.31 No.1

In order to protect the life and safety of hostages in hostage-taking crimes, Criminal Law stipulates provisions for reducing the sentence in Articles 295-2 and 324-6. The purpose of the regulation is to deter secondary crime against hostages as an incentive for actors to safely release hostages. However, it is somewhat questionable whether the preferential treatment of criminal policy at the level of arbitrary mitigation is an effective motive for the hostage offenders to safely release the hostage. Accordingly, using the sequential game model of game theory, this study analyzes what selective strategies are carried out under the interdependence between hostage criminals and law enforcement authorities. In the game model, the compensation vector of each participant used Becker's equation of criminal utility theory. First, the strategic choices of hostage offenders, law enforcement authorities, the general public, and law enforcement authorities were examined separately to derive the limit and general deterrence effects of the hostage release reduction regulations respectively. In addition, in the strategic choice analysis between hostage offenders and law enforcement authorities, the tendency of hostage offenders was divided into risk avoidance, risk neutrality, and risk preference type, and in each case, the hostage offender made a choice between necessary reduction or arbitrary reduction. In order to promote the safety of hostages, necessary reduction or exemption was found to be the most effective incentive. However, it should be noted that this result may give the wrong signal as an incentive for hostage crimes to the general public, who are potential criminals. Furthermore, this study also examines the possible improvements of the current liberation reduction regulations by reflecting the golden time in relation to the age of hostages. Given that the purpose of the liberation and mitigation regulations is to protect the lives and security of hostages, it is highly likely that the law enforcement authorities' attempts to negotiate after the golden time will be meaningless. It was confirmed that the golden time, which can guarantee the safety of the hostages, has a large time difference depending on the age of the hostages. As a result, in order to ensure the safety of hostages and to ensure the fair exercise of national punishment rights, the temporal application of the liberation and mitigation regulations should be more precisely defined by reflecting the golden time. In order to safely release hostages within the period by applying the golden time, the average time after victims are robbed and attracted, the need to define greater incentives for compensation than the current arbitrary reduction should be considered. Finally, this study suggests that the method of statistics collection and crime analysis on hostage crimes needs to be completely reorganized as a premise to reflect the difference in golden time in legislation.

소방차 출동 시 효율적인 골든타임 확보 방안에 관한 연구

황의홍(Hwang, Euyhong),최지훈(Choi, Jihun),최돈묵(Choi, Donmook) 한국방재학회 2018 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.18 No.5

소방청의 통계자료에서 최근 5년간 소방차가 골든타임이내에 도착한 화재출동비율은 평균 60%정도로, 안전의 중요성에 대비하여 높은 비율은 아니라고 판단된다. 골든타임은 생명과 직결되기 때문에 확보해야 하지만 잘 되지 않고 있다. 소방차가 골든타임이내에 출동하지 못하는 이유는 소방력 확보, 긴급출동로 확보, 119서비스의 한계로 나눌 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 미국, 일본, 유럽 등 선진국의 해외기준에서 다뤄진 내용을 바탕으로 국내의 골든타임 확보에 관한 기준과 시스템의 한계를 알아보고, 이에 대한 문제점과 해결방안을 제시하고자 한다. Statistics from the Fire Department illustrate that over the last five years, the rates for fire enforcement arriving within the Golden Time is on average only 60 %, and this is not a high enough safety rate. Golden Time has to be secured because it is directly related to saving lives, but at present, it is not working well. Fire engines would be capable of traveling within the Golden Time based on the following three factors: securing the fire engines, securing the emergency route, and the limitations of the 119 system. This research is based on the standards of advanced overseas countries such as the U.S., Japan, and Europe, and it examines the limitations of domestic standards and systems in securing Golden Time. Additionally, this research suggests the problems that exist and develops specific solutions.

시간 속의 황금비율에 관한 연구

최은영 한국기초조형학회 2008 기초조형학연구 Vol.9 No.6

Interest in the golden ratio goes back more than 2400 years, and Pythagoras and Euclid of ancient Greece finally developed the corresponding theory. The golden ratio, originally derived from the principle of formative nature, has heavily influenced culture and art throughout history. In tandem with scientific advancement, the golden ratio of mathematical applications can be found in common places in our lives. The psychologic comfort afforded by the golden ratio naturally leads us to apply it in various fields including architecture, mathematics, art and design. I have observed that, while the golden ratio applies to visible shape in space formation, no study has been undertaken for the application of the golden ratio to the time. In this study, I would like to analyze the golden ratio in time so as to determine the true provision of nature and meaning.

화재 출동 지체의 원인 분석에 관한 연구: 부산광역시를 중심으로

우보람(WOO, Boram),김회경(KIM, Hoe Kyoung) 대한교통학회 2022 대한교통학회지 Vol.40 No.1

본 연구는 부산광역시 화재 출동 자료를 바탕으로 골든타임 5분 내에 도달 가능한 영역을 공간적으로 분석하고, 화재 출동시간을 지체시키는 원인을 도출하는 것에 그 목적이 있다. 본 연구는 크게 세 가지 내용으로 구성되어 있다. 첫째, 부산광역시 화재 출동 데이터의 이상치 제거, 둘째, GIS 공간분석을 통한 부산광역시 여섯 개의 권역별 골든타임 소방 서비스 영역 산정, 셋째, 다중회귀분석을 이용한 부산광역시 권역별 화재 출동 지체의 원인분석이다. 본 연구의 결과, 여섯 개 권역에서 화재 출동 소요시간을 지체시키는 공통적인 요인은 출동 경로 내 위치한 교차로의 수로 도출되었다. 부산광역시 화재 출동 소요시간 단축을 위해 긴급차량 우선신호체계의 도입이 시급한 정책 대안이라고 할 수 있다. 또한 강서권을 제외한 다섯 개의 권역에서 경로 내 1차로의 비율이 화재 출동 소요시간을 증가시키는 것으로 나타나 부산광역시의 도로정비계획 시 차로 수를 늘리거나 혹은 1차로의 차로 폭을 확대시키는 방안이 요구된다. 강서권과 기장권의 경우 불법 주정차 차량으로 인해 화재출동 소요시간이 550-600초 증가하는 것으로 나타나 불법 주정차 차량 단속을 강화하여 응급차량의 접근이 지체되지 않도록 하여야 할 것이다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 부산광역시의 골든타임 확보율을 개선하기 위한 정책 수립 기초자료의 역할을 할 것으로 기대된다. This study analyzed the area that can be reached within 5 minutes of the golden time based on the fire dispatch data of Busan Metropolitan City, and derived the factors affecting the fire dispatch time. This study is largely composed of three main parts: first, elimination of outliers in the fire dispatch data, second, estimation of fire-fighting service area within 5 minutes of golden time through GIS spatial analysis, and third, regression analysis of delay in fire mobilization. As a result, the number of intersections was found to commonly influence the extension of the fire dispatch time in six districts, implying that the introduction of the emergency vehicle preemption system is an urgent policy alternative in Busan. In addition, the ratio of the 1-lane in the fire dispatch route increases the fire dispatch time in five districts excluding the Gangseo district, requiring the increase of the number of lanes or expansion of the lane width. In particular, illegal parking is an underlying factor in the fire dispatch time increase by 550 to 600 seconds in the Gangseo and Gijang districts, demanding the strong crackdown on illegal parking. The results of this study are expected to serve as supporting data for policy establishment to secure 5 minutes of the golden time in Busan in the future.

A Case Study on POLICE Activities for Effective Disaster Management

Seongcho Hong,Sanghun Lee J-INSTITUTE 2021 International Journal of Terrorism & National Secu Vol.6 No.2

Purpose: As modern society becomes dense, complex, and wide-ranging, even small accidents often cause a series of infrastructure collapse or human casualty which leading to a national crisis. The government always promises to be thoroughly prepared to prevent the same accident in the future, but despite many proposals and measures, similar types of accidents occur repeatedly after a certain period of time. Now, distrust is building up in the government which has failed to manage the disaster. In this paper, considering this reality, we believe that national capabilities should first be invested intensively in initial measures for appropriate actions at Golden Time, and we would like to present a plan to secure capabilities by dividing them into software and hardware parts for appropriate initial action. Method: Inappropriate initial measures in post-evaluations are pointed out as problems every time a disaster occurs. Research would like to check what problems are there through recent cases in Korea and draw implications for effective initial measures in the future. Based on previous national crisis and disaster, case study method is conducted to analyze military, state, local government, police and coast guard’s initial measures and action. Research focused on 2010 ROKS Cheonan sinking, 2014 Sinking of MV Sewol and 2019 defecting of North Korean wooden boat cases. Overviews of each cases will be introduced and case analysis of each cases’ initial measure will be discussed. Results: Case analysis of previous disaster’s initial measures show importance of initial measure. Researchers suggest that improvement measures must be prepared to utilize the police’s 112 system in times of crisis such as disasters. In this paper, researchers suggest two different way(legal and physical) to improve initial measure of the police and coast guards’ in the event of a disaster. In legal way, research focuses on law and regulation of authorities, police, coast guards and the Disaster Safety Act. Physical way discuss about equipment, expert training, and overall system of comprehensive disaster management. More detail will be discussed later. Conclusion: Problems commonly pointed out in the BAI reports, media, civic groups, and investigative agencies that have analyzed accidents in the past are inexperienced initial measures within Golden Time. There is a golden time in every crisis, so appropriate measures can save people, minimize property damage, or end the case early by putting only a small national capability in dealing with it afterward. Researchers believe that limited national resources can be efficiently responded in the event of a disaster by first strengthening the field of initial measures. In the future, when the autonomous police system is implemented, the national · autonomous police officers will be separated and the 112 system will be separated too. In that situation, Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, local government, National Coast Guards, and National Fire Agency will have hard time in communication and chain of command. In the event of a crisis while receiving a crisisrelated report or on-site patrol, it should be clearly stipulated that all reports should be dispatched first regardless of authorities.