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2012∼2013년간 정부의 절전규제가 국민총후생에 미친 영향 분석
곽지섭(Jisup Kwak),조성봉(Sung Bong Cho) 한국경제연구원 2016 규제연구 Vol.25 No.1
본 논문에서는 2012년과 2013년의 전력판매량은 외부요인을 배제하기 위하여 단일변량 시계열 모형을 통해 절전규제를 시행하지 않은 경우에 대한 전력판매량을 추정하고, 추정된 결과를 이용하여 시계열 회귀분석을 통해 가상의 국내총생산을 산출하여 이 국내총생산이 국민의 총 후생수준을 나타낸다고 전제한 후 이를 실제 국내총생산으로 대변되는 실제 국민 총후생수준과 비교하였다. Holt의 2모수 지수평활법을 이용하여 추정한 결과, 절전규제를 시행하지 않았다면 전력판매량의 연평균증가율(2012년 및 2013년)은 절전규제 시행 시에 비해 2.1%p 증가하였을 것으로 추정되었다. 이 결과를 이용하여 시계열 회귀분석모형을 만들고 국내총생산을 추정하면 국내총생산의 연평균증가율(2012년 및 2013년)은 절전규제 시행 시에 비해 0.7%p 증가하였을 것으로 추정되었다. 따라서 사전에 전력이 충분하게 공급되었더라면 2012년과 2013년의 최대전력은 각각 2,502MW 및 5,247MW가 증가하였을 것이고 이때의 추가적인 공급비용으로는 총 6,506억 원 정도가 소요되었을 것으로 추정된다. 이는 국민총후생 감소액 27조원의 2.4%에 불과한 수치이다. By using univariate time series model to eliminate the effect of electricity-saving measures in estimating electricity sales volume of 2012 and 2013, we estimated the imaginary GDP level through time series regression when there were no electricity-saving measures. Assuming that this level of estimated GDP represents the national welfare, we tried to compare this GDP level with the actual realized GDP. Without electricity-saving measures, we estimated using Holt’s*** that annual electricity sales growth rate would have been 2.1%p higher from 2012 to 2013. It is also estimated that annual GDP growth rate would have been 0.7%p higher from 2012 to 2013 without electricity-saving measures. Sufficient power supply that would have covered peak load increase of 2012 and 2013 amounting 2,502MW and 5,247MW respectively would have asked net cost increase around 650.6 billion won, only 2.4% of the loss of national welfare amounting 27 trillion won.
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함예재 일본사학회 2013 일본역사연구 Vol.37 No.-
This paper has analyzed the only pre-war comprehensive athletic competition, Meiji jingu Athletic Competition which was held from 1924 to 1943. The competition which was started to commemorate the completion of Meiji jingu by the proposal of the Ministry of the Home Affairs reflected the national situation of the era and went through the changes in its characteristics. In this paper, especially the competition in the period of mobilization of the State era in the late 1930’s was examined. Upon entering the mobilization of the State, the nation considered the citizens as the manpower and recognized them as the military or labor power for the war. Thus, the fitness of the citizens was regarded as the fundamental elements for waging war and at the time, the lowering of the national fitness was raised as a crucial issue. When the national fitness enhancement became important, the Ministry of Welfare of Japan was newly established and various policies related to the national fitness were implemented. Under such intention, the host of Meiji jingu Athletic Competition was changed to the Ministry of Welfare. The main participants of the competition included young men, soldiers, students and women who would experience war directly and indirectly and regionally, it included the Joseon, Taiwan and Manchukoku. In terms of the decisions on the sports categories and operations, beginning with the 10th competition when Japan entered the mobilization state, new categories of sports were held. The categories on the premise of the enhancement of basic fitness and learning of combat skills required for the wars such as the defense competitions, guns and swords and soar training were held. Furthermore, in order to cultivate the spirit of Japan based on loyalty and filial piety, Japan’s traditional martial art, such as Kendo and Judo were considered crucial. The physical exercises for the entire citizens were also encouraged and in particular, the regional athletic competitions were held for all citizens for physical exercises, encouraging the enhancement of fitness on a national level for people of all ages and gender. Based on this analysis, Meiji jingu Athletic Competition aims to enhance the national health and mobilization. Considering that the duty given to the citizens was the progression of war through the enhanced basic fitness of the citizens who were considered as the manpower under the mobilization of the State, Meiji jingu Athletic Competition is the event-like policy which has thoroughly reflected such national intent.
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