Special issue on how technology-enhanced tourism is transforming societies, cultures and economies

Koo, C.,Tussyadiah, I.P.,Hunter, W.C. American Elsevier 2017 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.123 No.-

Four harmonic cycles explain and predict commodity currencies' wide long term fluctuations

American Elsevier 2014 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.87 No.-

In theory and practice, it is difficult to accept a particular model of explanation and forecasting of exchange currencies as the literature review reveals. However, the currencies that are called commodity currencies, such as the Australian dollar are heavily influenced by commodity prices cycles, and hence they might be easier to analyze and predict. We investigate the possibility that the Australian dollar is primarily determined by a handful of harmonic cycles which in turn are based not only on commodity prices cycles but also on commodity production cycles and in general on economic cycles. In this way we can get a very good fit of the relevant data and good out-of-sample forecasts. We cross check these results by referring to the main issues involved, such as fundamentals, short and long cycles, and so on. In addition, our analysis, forecasting ability, and conclusions still hold for three more commodity currencies examined here: New Zealand's dollar, Canada's dollar, and Norway's krone.

Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative technologies focusing on the green car

Lee, D.H.,Park, S.Y.,Kim, J.W.,Lee, S.K. American Elsevier 2013 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.80 No.3

Previous studies of technical competitive relationship have mostly focused on the analysis of one-directional impact of the technical attribute on market share. However, there is a cyclical feedback effect between the technical attributes and market share, and that means the small difference of competitiveness at the early phase of technology diffusion can greatly affect the final market share. As such, this study presents the system dynamics model which can forecast sales of innovative technology considering the feedback effect of market share on technical attributes. For that, the causal loop diagram among the various variables was defined using the econometric model applied and proven in various studies of the Bass diffusion model, discrete choice model, etc. to reinforce the theoretical background of the causal relationship among the variables of the forecasting model. Furthermore, infrastructure building scenarios and feedback effect scenarios were applied to the developed forecasting model to present the implication for successful adoption of green car technology from the infrastructure development view point.

Towards an effective framework for building smart cities: Lessons from Seoul and San Francisco

Lee, J.H.,Hancock, M.G.,Hu, M.C. American Elsevier 2014 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.89 No.-

This study aims to shed light on the process of building an effective smart city by integrating various practical perspectives with a consideration of smart city characteristics taken from the literature. We developed a framework for conducting case studies examining how smart cities were being implemented in San Francisco and Seoul Metropolitan City. The study's empirical results suggest that effective, sustainable smart cities emerge as a result of dynamic processes in which public and private sector actors coordinate their activities and resources on an open innovation platform. The different yet complementary linkages formed by these actors must further be aligned with respect to their developmental stage and embedded cultural and social capabilities. Our findings point to eight 'stylized facts', based on both quantitative and qualitative empirical results that underlie the facilitation of an effective smart city. In elaborating these facts, the paper offers useful insights to managers seeking to improve the delivery of smart city developmental projects.

The MODIS ice surface temperature product as an indicator of sea ice minimum over the Arctic Ocean

Kang, D.,Im, J.,Lee, M.I.,Quackenbush, L.J. American Elsevier Pub. Co 2014 Remote sensing of environment Vol.152 No.-

This study examines the relationship between sea ice extent and ice surface temperature (IST) between 2000 and 2013 using daily IST products from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. The empirical prediction of September sea ice extent using its trend and two climate variables-IST and wind vorticity-exhibits a statistically significant relationship (R=0.97) with a time lag, where IST maximum in summer (June-July) corresponds to the sea ice extent minimum in September. This suggests that IST may serve as an indicator of the basin-wide heat energy accumulated in the Arctic by solar radiation and large-scale atmospheric heat transport from lower latitudes. The process of inducing higher IST is related to the change of atmospheric circulation over the Arctic. Averaged IST and 850hPa relative vorticity of the polar region show a significant negative correlation (-0.57) in boreal summer (June-August), suggesting a weakening of the polar vortex in the case of warmer-than-normal IST conditions. Weakening of the polar vortex is accompanied by above-normal surface pressure. Minimum sea ice extent in September was successfully predicted by both multiple linear regression and machine learning support vector regression using preceding summer IST and wind vorticity along with the trend of sea ice extent (R<SUP>2</SUP>~0.95, cross validation RMSE of 3-4x10<SUP>5</SUP>km<SUP>2</SUP>, and relative cross validation RMSE of 5-8%).

The possibility of using search traffic information to explore consumer product attitudes and forecast consumer preference

Jun, S.P.,Park, D.H.,Yeom, J. American Elsevier 2014 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.86 No.-

In recent years, many researchers have devoted their attention to using search traffic information gathered from Google Insights to carry out consumer attitude research. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of using search traffic information to analyze actual consumer attitudes regarding a product. By comparing the results of conventional survey-based attitude research with the results of search traffic information, this study reveals that search traffic information indicates consumers' level of interest regarding a product, the product attributes that they are considering, and the importance of each attribute to them. Also, it demonstrates the potential benefits of search traffic analysis, which can be useful for forecasting consumer preferences regarding products. Focusing on the Prius, a hybrid car, this study shows that search traffic information serves as an accurate indicator of consumer attitudes, and even succeeds in identifying consumers' hidden attitudes toward the Prius, which can be explained by cognitive dissonance theory. Finally, this study utilizes search traffic information to forecast changes in consumer attitudes and to develop an econometric model of consumer demand for the Prius by incorporating environmental variables such as the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) price. This study concludes that search traffic information offers new potential advantages, in that it not only overcomes the limitations imposed by the high cost of conducting surveys, in terms of money and time, but also helps to reduce the distortions caused by conscious or unconscious errors committed by survey respondents.

A study of the SME Technology Roadmapping Program to strengthen the R&D planning capability of Korean SMEs

Jun, S.P.,Seo, J.H.,Son, J.K. American Elsevier 2013 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.80 No.5

As many countries strive to bolster their respective economies and to minimize the repercussions of the global financial crisis, policies for strengthening the innovative capabilities of small and medium enterprises have emerged as an important means for pursuing these governmental efforts. In 2007, the Korean government designed its SME Technology Roadmapping Program to reinforce the planning capabilities of SMEs and began actively administering the program in 2008. This study analyzes the contents and effects of Korea's SME Roadmapping Support Program, which has yielded successful outcomes, for the purpose of illuminating various implications that can be learned from this program for future policies. Although the beneficiaries of Korea's support project were companies that are relatively smaller when compared to the participants in Singapore's OTR program, a greater amount of manpower and financial resources were devoted by Korea to build their mid-to-long term roadmaps. The SME technology roadmaps generated through the support of this program were found to have contributed to strengthening the capabilities of human resources, establishing mid-to-long term R&D strategies, developing technology, enhancing the success rate of commercialization, and identifying technology development projects. In addition, this study explores directions for improving the program by analyzing the results of a survey conducted among the companies that completed roadmaps as participants in the program. According to my analysis of the Structural Equation Model (SEM) constructed from the survey, the level of satisfaction regarding the program declined in cases where the roadmap presented technologies that required a long time for development. From this observation, we derived the lesson that in order to improve the SME Technology Roadmapping Program in the future, it will be necessary to reduce the timeframe of the roadmaps from the conventional 3~5years to 2~3years.

Socio-Technical Dynamics in the Development of Next Generation Mobile Network: Translation Beyond 3G

Shin, D.H.,Choo, H.,Beom, K. American Elsevier 2011 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.78 No.3

This paper traces the translation processes associated with the mobilization of resources and industrial agency in the development of a next generation mobile network in Korea. To explain the socio-technical dynamics, the sociology of translation is used. The paper provides a story of a translation of strategy and related activities using Callon's four moments of translation. The story illustrates how, during the translation process, 4G strategies have been formed, shaped, and enhanced. It describes the process of technology adoption and developing stories by highlighting the co-evolving nature, diversity, and interface which constitute the next-generation network environment. It provides insight into the Korean mobile environment by offering a socio-technical analysis of 4G development and how it involves the dynamics of industry, regulation, and technology. The study suggests that the sociology of translation may be a promising explication of technological change and innovation.

Provision of mobile banking services from an actor-network perspective: Implications for convergence and standardization

Lee, H.,Harindranath, G.,Oh, S.,Kim, D.J. American Elsevier 2015 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.90 No.2

Continuous advancements in mobile technology allow mobile carriers and banks to offer mobile banking services. Such convergence of previously unrelated industries raises many complex issues. This paper examines the dynamics of competition and collaboration among mobile carriers, banks and other related parties for mobile banking in Korea during the burgeoning period of mobile banking in the early to mid-2000s. This period is when the idea of mobile banking was realised in practice and a variety of the parties involved criss-crossed each other to form a network of service provision. It presents an opportunity to examine the complex dynamics of network formation for convergence services and standardization. Since convergence and standardization is a process of merging and integrating multiple players into a new network or system, it is realised through the process of interactions among the players involved. Actor-network theory (ANT) is used as an interpretive lens to analyse this process. ANT helps analyse how actors form alliances and enrol other actors, including non-human actors (i.e. technology), in order to secure their interests. By analysing three specific actor networks that emerged during a formative period in Korea's mobile banking sector, this paper shows the significance of the processes involved in developing actor networks, and especially the role of non-human actors. Given the contemporary context of the ongoing smart phone wars, which shares many of the features of convergence and standard competition, the paper serves as a timely reminder of the role played by key actors and the networks they create. The paper presents some implications for technology management in convergence- and standardisation-related areas.

Application of information technology in creative economy: Manufacturing vs. creative industries

American Elsevier 2015 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.96 No.-

The primary purpose of this paper is to review the historical development of the application of IT, its relationships with corporate strategy, and its influence on corporate performance. The secondary purposes are to empirically investigate the above relationships and the differences in these relationships between creative and manufacturing industries and to identify the most powerful IT traits for a firm's success in each industry in Korea. The research findings confirmed that application of IT provides several kinds of competitive advantage such as efficiency, threat, functionality, attack, and integration, and that it significantly contributes to corporate performance. Application of IT plays significant roles in mediating between corporate strategy and performance. The research findings indicate that IT traits of efficiency and integration are the two most powerful competitive advantages for corporations. These research results indicate that corporate strategy is essential in delivering high corporate performance in both creative and manufacturing industries. Firms in creative industries should seriously consider IT traits of efficiency and threat, while firms in manufacturing industries should deeply take IT traits of efficiency and integration into account.