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On the Trade Balance Response to Monetary Shocks: the Marshall-Lerner Conditions Reconsidered
( Giovanni Lombardo ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2001 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.16 No.4
This paper studies the applicability of the Marshall-Lerner condition to the “basic” Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) model. It shows that the Marshall-Lerner condition does apply to this class of models with homothetic preferences when product differentiation across countries is imposed. This paper also shows that, in certain cases, the intertemporal substitution and the dynamic income effect can make the mere elasticity of substitution an insufficient indicator of the response of the current account to monetary shocks.
Moving up the Quality Ladder? EU-China Dynamics in Clothing
( Hylke Vandenbussche ),( Francesco Di Comite ),( Laura Rovegno ),( Christian Viegelahn ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2013 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.28 No.2
We apply a simple method to study the relative quality of Chinese versus European products exported in the clothing sector after the end of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement. Based on the model of Foster et al., (2008), we interpret the change in relative export prices and quantities sold in narrowly defined product categories as an indicator of quality shifts. Using UN Comtrade data, we find that European varieties exported to the US typically sell for a higher price than identical Chinese varieties exported to the US, but this price gap is narrowing. Despite rising prices, Chinese varieties are gaining market share. This opposite movement of relative prices and quantities sold in the same destination market are a strong indication of China`s moving up the quality ladder in its clothing exports relative to the EU. While European core products in clothing are stable over time, Chinese exports show product dynamics with exit and entry of new core products every year.
The EU`s Strategy for Trans-Pacific Partnership
( Patrick Messerlin ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2013 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.28 No.2
This paper attempts to assess the discriminatory impact that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could have on the EU economy. It gives robust evidence that the discriminatory impact will be dramatic if the TPP is successful in reducing or abolishing “behind the border” barriers among member countries. This situation leaves the EU with only two options. First option consists in doing nothing. It is costly from the beginning, as East Asian economies are already quite large. More importantly, the cost of this option will keep rising because EU`s weight will decline whereas the East Asian weight will keep rising. In such a context, threatening to close the EU markets as a leverage to open non-EU markets damages credibility. The second option consists in insuring the EU against a successful TPP by reaching a preferential trade agreement (PTA) with Japan, and then with Taiwan. Concluding PTAs with Japan and Taiwan is not only an insurance policy against the TPP, but it also allows the EU to boost the development of Europe, East Asia, and global trade.
Exchange Rate Devaluation and Reshuffling of Global Jobs
( Luca Macedoni ),( Fabio Sdogati ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2013 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.28 No.2
Current debates presume that devaluation of one country`s currency may transfer the production of imported intermediate goods to the devaluating country. This paper argues that in a global production network involving more than two countries in the production of fragments, this presumption may not hold. With a simple Ricardian model of fragmentation, this paper shows that the production of fragments can be transferred only if countries have close comparative advantage. Using data from the World Input Output Database, our model is found to be empirically supported.
What could happen in a Monetary Union? The Perspective of Informational Asymmetry
( Cornel Oros ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
The subsidiarity principle governing the collection of statistical data in a monetary union may result in asymmetrical information. The national governments may be tempted to distort their economic and financial data communicated to the union`s central bank in order to influence its monetary policy decisions. We base our analysis on a static Keynesian model in a closed monetary union and we prove that the governments` incentives to modify their private information depend mainly on the nature of the economic shocks affecting the union members, on the degree of monetary activism, and on the extent of the union`s structural heterogeneity. We analyse the institutional mechanisms that could be used to discipline the governments and encourage them to communicate real information. An incentive contract of the "principal-agent" type or a variable geometry fiscal coordination represent two institutional solutions that could help to create a revealing equilibrium within a monetary union.
Is Price Dynamics Homogeneous Across Eurozone Countries?
( David Guerreiro ),( Marc Joets ),( Valerie Mignon ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price dynamics is homogeneous across the Eurozone countries. Relying on monthly data over the January 1970~July 2011 period, we test for the absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis through the implementation of second and third-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. Our results show that price dynamics are heterogeneous depending on both the time period and the considered group of countries. More specifically, while PPP is validated for the core Economic Monetary Union (EMU) countries, this hypothesis does not hold for Northern peripheral economies. Turning to the Southern countries, PPP is observed only before the launch of the euro.
Economic Integration in the Indian Subcontinent: A Study of Macroeconomic Interdependence
( T K Jayaraman ),( Chee Keong Choong ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
The South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) marked its Silver Jubilee in 2010. The SAARC`s charter, which was signed by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in 1985, has many similarities to the founding charters of similar regional associations signed elsewhere. While other regional associations have made substantial progress, SAARC has yet to produce notable results. In the context of growing global economic interdependence, it is of interest to assess how far economic growth in each of the SAARC economies has influenced growth in other member countries. Adopting a vector autoregression (VAR) methodology, this paper investigates macroeconomic interdependence in the South Asian region with a view to evaluating its readiness to forge ahead with its integration efforts. The findings of the study reveal that India has been influencing economic growth in the region, as its output variability has been affecting outputs in other member countries. If SAARC has to become successful as a regional bloc, India as the biggest gainer from trade and investment relationships should take some bold steps, which would represent some readiness to part with some of the gains derived by way of trade surpluses.
Testing the Asset-seeking Hypothesis: through the Investments of Chinese and Indian Firms in Europe
( He Yong ),( Zhou Hong ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
We use the investments of Chinese and Indian MNCs in Europe to test the hypothesis that the main motivation of the Southern MNCs for investing in the Northern countries is asset- or technology- seeking. After showing that the previous work has not adequately tested this hypothesis due to its use of country-level FDI flow data, we conduct our tests with count data models tests. The results reveal that this motivation for Chinese MNCs is strong, whereas Indian MNCs, due to their excessive concentration in the UK and in software sector, have a weaker asset-seeking motivation than Chinese MNCs.
Notes on Detecting The Effects of Non Tariff Measures
( Jaime De Melo ),( Celine Carrere ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2011 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.26 No.1
Alternative approaches to estimating the effects of nontariff measures (NTMs) on trade flows are discussed and evaluated critically. Recent econometric studies point to three results: (i) NTM restrictiveness measures based on an aggregate of ‘core’ NTMs are more restrictive than existing tariffs and, because of export composition towards agricultural products, in the aggregate, these ‘core’ NTMs limit market access most for low-income countries; (ii) Proxies for individual NTMs have a negative effect on the volume of bilateral trade for the detailed product under scrutiny; (iii) harmonization of standards is trade enhancing. Case studies confirm several of these patterns, and also that perceived severity of NTMs varies across products and across destinations for a given product. Across broadly defined imports at the section level, NTMs are more restrictive than the corresponding tariffs with two-thirds of the ad-valorem equivalent estimates in the 25%-50% range. Technical regulations and non-automatic licensing are the most used single-NTM measures and the restrictiveness of technical regulations increases with income per capita.