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- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Zatsepina, Nataly (검색결과 2 건)
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Shelemetieva, Tetiana,Zatsepina, Nataly,Barna, Marta,Topornytska, Mariia,Tuchkovska, Iryna International Journal of Computer ScienceNetwork S 2021 International journal of computer science and netw Vol.21 No.7
The tourism industry is influenced by a large number of factors that affect the development scenarios of the tourism in different ways. At the same time, tourism is an important component of the national economy of any state, forms its image, investment attractiveness, is a source of income and a stimulus for business development. The aim of the article is to conduct an empirical study to identify the importance of cognitive determinants in the development of tourism. The study used general and special methods: systems analysis, synthesis, grouping, systematization, cognitive modeling, cognitive map, pulse method, predictive extrapolation. Target factors, indicators, and control factors influencing the development of tourism in Ukraine are determined and a cognitive model is built, which graphically reflects the nature of the influence of these factors. Four main scenarios of the Ukrainian tourism industry are established on the basis of creating a matrix of adjacency of an oriented graph and forecast modeling based on a scenario approach. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use to forecast the prospects of tourism development in Ukraine, the definition of state policy to support the industry that will promote international and domestic tourism.
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The current state and prospects of travel business development under the COVID-19 pandemic
Tkachenko, Tetiana,Pryhara, Olha,Zatsepina, Nataly,Bryk, Stepan,Holubets, Iryna,Havryliuk, Alla International Journal of Computer ScienceNetwork S 2021 International journal of computer science and netw Vol.21 No.spc12
The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identif
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