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김진영(Jin-Young Kim),김현구(Hyun-Goo Kim),강용혁(Yong-Heack Kang),윤창열(Chang-Yeol Yun),김창기(Chang Ki Kim),김지영(Ji-Young Kim),이준신(Jun-Shin Lee) 한국신재생에너지학회 2016 신재생에너지 Vol.12 No.S2
Improvement of a simple and practical Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) based on multi-models for wind power forecasting was performed by optimizing various ensemble member combinations. Three types of ensemble methods were compared; multi-models, multi-physics and hybrid ensemble. Multi-models were composed of four different numerical weather prediction models; WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW with small and large domains, UM-RDAPS and WW3. WRF-ARW was also used in multi-physics by designing two different planetary boundary layer and surface layer scheme, respectively. As a result, simulated wind speed from the multi-models EPS showed smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) and a higher spread (SPRD) than those of the multi-physics EPS. Among the five different multi-models, three models such as KIER1, KIER2 and KMA-WW3 were reliable in terms of RMSE and correlation coefficient (CORR) for all typhoon cases. Therefore, a new EPS constructed by simple averaging the wind speeds taken from the three models. The new EPS showed a higher correlation and agreement with a value of 1.4% and 2.1% compared to those in old EPS, respectively.
김진영(Kim Jin-Young),김현구(Kim Hyun-Goo),강용혁(Kang Yong-Heack),윤창열(Yun Chang-Yeol),김지영(Kim Ji-Young),이준신(Lee Jun-Shin) 한국태양에너지학회 2016 한국태양에너지학회 논문집 Vol.36 No.1
A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode.