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개발도상국의 대기 질 및 탄소 배출에 대한 교통 영향: 미얀마를 사례로
WUT YEE LWIN,윤병조 한국재난정보학회 2023 한국재난정보학회 논문집 Vol.19 No.1
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze air quality and carbon emissions in developing countries, particularly Myanmar, and explore the impact of transportation on CO2 emissions during peak hours relative to free-flow conditions.Method: This study conducted a traffic survey in two major cities in Myanmar to quantify carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector, using IPCC's tier 1 and tier 2 approaches, with statistical analysis performed using Python 3 and Microsoft Excel for comparative analysis of critical factors in CO2 emissions. Result: The result of this study is an estimate of the vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) and fuel consumption in Yangon city for the year 2019, based on data from various sources including the Myanmar Statistical data base, YUTRA project survey, and Ministry of Electric and Energy. The study also analyzes the average travel time index (TTI) for the four roads in Yangon, which indicates the impact of congestion on vehicle travel time and CO2 emissions. Overall, the study provides important insights into the transport sector in Yangon city and can be used to inform policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving traffic conditions. Conclusion:The study concludes that congestion plays a significant role in increasing fuel use and emission levels in the road transport sector in Myanmar. The analysis provides valuable insights into the impact of the sector on the environment and emphasizes the importance of addressing congestion to reduce fuel use and emissions. However, the study's scope is limited to Yangon city and Mandalay city, and some mean values may not accurately represent the entire country and other developing countries.
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Random Forest를 활용한 고속도로 교통사고 심각도 비교분석에 관한 연구
이선민,윤병조,WUT YEE LWIN 한국재난정보학회 2024 한국재난정보학회 논문집 Vol.20 No.1
Purpose: The trend of highway traffic accidents shows a repeating pattern of increase and decrease, with the fatality rate being highest on highways among all road types. Therefore, there is a need to establish improvement measures that reflect the domestic situation. Method: Using Random Forest, accident severity analysis was conducted on data from accidents occurring on 10 specific routes with high accident rates among national highways from 2019 to 2021. Factors influencing accident severity were identified. Result: The analysis of the top 10 variable importance using the SHAP package revealed that among highway traffic accidents, the variables with a significant impact on accident severity are the age of the perpetrator being between 20 and less than 39 years, the time period being daytime (06:00-18:00), occurrence on weekends (Sat-Sun), seasons being summer and winter, violation of traffic regulations (failure to comply with safe driving), road type being a tunnel, geometric structure having a high number of lanes and a high speed limit. A total of 10 independent variables were found to have a positive correlation with highway traffic accident severity. Conclusion: As accidents on highways occur due to the complex interaction of various factors, predicting accidents poses significant challenges. However, utilizing the results obtained from this study, there is a need for in-depth analysis of the factors influencing the severity of highway traffic accidents. Efforts should be made to establish efficient and rational response measures based on the findings of this research.
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