http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
- 中文 을 입력하시려면 zhongwen을 입력하시고 space를누르시면됩니다.
- 北京 을 입력하시려면 beijing을 입력하시고 space를 누르시면 됩니다.
RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Nan-Chou Su (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
-
Chung-Chieh Wang,Nan-Chou Su,Jou-Ping Hou,이동인 한국기상학회 2018 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.54 No.3
The forecast of summertime afternoon convection by numerical weather prediction models is highly challenging because of its weak dynamical forcing, small scale, and low predictability. To assess such an ability for future improvement, we evaluated the performance of the 2.5-km Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) in predicting afternoon convection in Taiwan under weak synoptic conditions during the summers (May–October) of 2011 and 2012. For a total of 89 target days, daily CReSS forecasts in three ranges, starting at 0000 UTC (0800 LST) on the same day (D0), the day before (D-1), and 2 days before (D-2), were examined. With regard to the occurrence of afternoon convection anywhere in Taiwan, the predictive skill of the model was considerably high, as evidenced by the threat score (TS) and post-agreement (PA) of D0 (D-1) forecasts reaching 0.75 and 0.90 (0.50 and 0.79), respectively.While the score values decrease when Taiwan is divided into four regions (i.e., the forecast must be in the correct region to be considered a hit), the TS and PA for D0 (D-2) forecasts remain respectable at 0.44 and 0.73 (0.29 and 0.59). Among the four regions, the TS (0.48–0.65) and PA (0.77–0.83) for Central Taiwan are the highest with the best predictive skill. Overall, while the prediction of afternoon convection in the correct region is challenging, the 2.5-km CReSS model has considerable skill (TS ~ 0.30) even 2 days in advance, and can provide useful guidance for afternoon convection in Taiwan.
-
Wang Chung-Chieh,Tseng Li-Shan,Huang Chien-Chang,Chuang Pi-Yu,Su Nan-Chou,Chen Cheng-Ta,Lo Shih-How,Tsuboki Kazuhisa 한국기상학회 2024 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.60 No.3
Typhoons Morakot (2009) and Mindulle (2004) were two of the rainiest and most damaging typhoons to hit Taiwan on record, where both cases are associated with a strong low-level southwesterly monsoon flow. The moisture-rich southwesterly monsoon flow and the typhoon-induced northwesterly current usually converge on Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range to produce catastrophic rainfall. The two storms are simulated with a cloud-resolving model (CRM) using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) methodology to assess the fraction of precipitation attributable to long-term climate change. For each storm, two scenarios are simulated and compared—the control run in present-day climate and the sensitivity test in a past environment four decades ago, where the climate-change signal (“deltas”) is computed using global reanalysis data as the difference between 1990–2009 and 1950–1969. Being realistically reproduced by the CRM at a 3-km grid size in the control run, both typhoons progress in the sensitivity test with highly similar evolution to their present-day counterpart, even though the background in the sensitivity run is slightly cooler and drier than the present. Under the current climate, Morakot and Mindulle produce more rainfall by about 5 mm per day within 300–400 km from the center during their lifespan (equal to an increase of ~4–8%) compared to their counterparts in past climates. Such results are in close agreement with previous studies, and the shift in mean daily rainfall is tested as statistically significant at a confidence level of 99.5%. The water budget analysis shows that the increased rainfall from past to present climate is accounted for mainly by the low-level convergence of moisture associated with a more vigorous secondary circulation and a higher precipitable water amount.
연관 검색어 추천
이 검색어로 많이 본 자료
활용도 높은 자료
