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과수 폐업지원의 성과분석 : 생산성, 규모화, 가격과 소득에 미친 영향
문한필(Hanpil Moon),이현근(Hyun-Keun Lee),최미라(Mira Choi),채상현(Sang-Hyen Chai) 한국농업경제학회 2020 農業經濟硏究 Vol.61 No.3
This study empirically analyzed the effect of the Farm-Closure Assistance(FCA) program on productivity, scale, price, and income of fruit farms for the purpose of objective evaluation of its policy performance.T o this end, panel data for the period of 2000-2018 is constructed for 8 items of fruit, and statistical significance of various proxy variables representing the FCA was tested using the random effect model. As results of the analysis, it is found that the FCA contributed to the improvement of the average productivity and scale of the target item, but the long-term effect on the market price or agricultural income of the item is evaluated to be negligible.I t is because the FCA maintains an institutional framework that induces short-term conversion of crops rather than exit of farming. Although there is an effect on short-term adjustment (reduction) of oversupplied items, it is difficult to expect long-term results such as restructuring, supply and demand stability, and competitiveness improvement.O n the other hand, the balloon effect, which is an indirect ripple effect due to the FCA, is statistically significant in terms of productivity and market price, but not so significant in terms of scale or income increase.
농약 PLS 도입의 영향 및 농약가격과 농산물가격의 장기 균형관계 분석
문한필(Hanpil Moon),박미성(Mi Sung Park),서대석(Dae Seok Suh),추성민(Sung Min Cheu) 한국농식품정책학회 2020 농업경영정책연구 Vol.47 No.1
Implementation of the PLS (January 1, 2019) may have influences on the condition of domestic production such as the increase of pesticide costs and low suitability on MRL tests. In order to analyze the impact of increase in pesticide costs on price of agricultural products, we have conducted time series analysis on 34 products. The result shows that prices of red beans, spinach, radish, garlic and apple spiked after the increase in pesticide price and find new equilibrium at higher prices. In order to minimize potential damages to the farmers, the government need to intensify the guidance activities and extension service for farmers on suitable production practice and safety inspection. Subsequently, it can lead to stable production and supply of safe agricultural products. Also, it is necessary to strengthen the expertise of pesticide distributors and sellers, who are the main source of information for farmers. Advancement of pesticide management system, improvement of small packaging of pesticide, measuring container and pesticide labeling and development of general-purpose pesticides should be simultaneously conducted, too.
문한필(Moon Hanpil),송주호,정대희,김수지 한국농촌경제연구원 2014 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
In Bali, Indonesia, on 7 December 2013, the DDA small package was adopted, which signaled the change of a multilateral trading system that was at a standstill for a long time. At the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference, held for 5 days from 3 to 7 December, ministers adopted the “Bali Package,” which consisted of 10 issues including agriculture, trade facilitation, and development. The agricultural issue included 1) improvement in TRQ administration, 2) a peace clause on developing countries’ public stockholding for food security purposes, 3) a demand for keeping promises of export competition, and 4) expansion of general services. According to the improvement in TRQ administration, a country with its TRQ fill rate below a certain standard shall change TRQ administration methods to a first-come, first-served basis; or an unconditional license. However, developing countries can have flexibility, so Korea will not be affected much. Permission for public stockholding for food security purposes is a proposal that in public stockholding for food security, developing countries do not have to include the difference between the administered price and the external reference price in AMS. Nevertheless, Korea already abolished the rice purchase system, and changed it to the market price purchase method. Therefore, Korea will not use the permission. On the export competition issue, ministers presented a political declaration with no legal binding force, reaffirming that abolishing export subsidies that was promised in the 2005 Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration is needed. Also, the “Bali Package” included the Ministerial Decision that added “green box” items of Annex 2 of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. The decision clearly classified flood control, drought management, soil conservation, and related items that were unclear in previous general services items as “green box” items. An Agreement on Trade Facilitation, adopted by the WTO Ministerial Decision, includes clarifying GATT articles regarding the customs process, strengthening customs cooperation that includes information exchange among customs, and supporting the implementation of developing countries’ trade facilitation measures. In the Agreement, the parts explicitly related to agriculture are rules for importing countries’ enhanced controls or inspections of Article 5 (Other Measures to Enhance Impartiality, Non-discrimination and Transparency), and facilitation of perishable goods’ clearance processes of Article 7 (Release and Clearance of Goods). In Korean agriculture, market opening is rapidly proceeding due to simultaneous FTAs. However, if the WTO trade facilitation measure that was agreed in Bali is implemented, market opening can proceed faster. The result of agrifood export expansion the government is actively promoting depends on the level of trade facilitation of countries that import Korean agrifood. The “Bali Package” addresses a small area with few issues in the whole frame of DDA negotiations. Nonetheless, the Package is positively evaluated in that it can develop DDA negotiations that were at a standstill, and reaffirmed member nations’ support for and trust in the WTO’s multilateral trading system that was considered unstable. However, DDA negotiations depend on how differences can be reduced between developed and developing countries’ opinions on preferential treatment to developing countries in every element of negotiations. In DDA agricultural negotiations that largely increased special treatment and exceptional measures to developing countries, the status of a developing or developed country can affect Korean agriculture much more than in the UR Agreement. Therefore, our biggest goal in negotiations is securing the status of a developing country. Realistically, we should consider participating in the developed country’s duties voluntarily to the extent that their damage to Korean agriculture is small, or reducing the developing coun
축산물이력제에 대한 소비자들의 지불의향과 시장영향 분석
문한필(Hanpil Moon),안병일(Byeong-il Ahn) 한국농업경제학회 2021 農業經濟硏究 Vol.62 No.2
In this study, to analyze the effects of the traceability system on the livestock product markets, a simulation model, which is composed of supply and ex ante as well as ex post demand, is developed based on the results of a consumer survey. Survey results indicate that consumers are willing to pay an average of 17.76% higher price for traceable beef than for non-traceable beef. On the other hand, consumers are willing to pay an average of 15.01% higher price for the pork for which traceability is available. As a result of the simulation model analysis, it is estimated that the price of Korean beef would have been decreased by 3.53% and the sales volume would have been decreased by 8.4% unless there was the introduction of traceability system. In addition, it is analyzed that the price and sales volume of domestic pork would have decreased by 2.68% and 8.64% without the traceability system.