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Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming
Kim, Seon Tae,Cai, Wenju,Jin, Fei-Fei,Santoso, Agus,Wu, Lixin,Guilyardi, Eric,An, Soon-Il Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan P 2014 Nature climate change Vol.4 No.9
<P>The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation(1,2) (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established(3-5). However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability(6-8), commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude(1,6), despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide(1-4,9). Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database(10), forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.</P>
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño
Collins, Mat,An, Soon-Il,Cai, Wenju,Ganachaud, Alexandre,Guilyardi, Eric,Jin, Fei-Fei,Jochum, Markus,Lengaigne, Matthieu,Power, Scott,Timmermann, Axel,Vecchi, Gabe,Wittenberg, Andrew Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2010 Nature geoscience Vol.3 No.6
Cai, Wenju,Santoso, Agus,Wang, Guojian,Yeh, Sang-Wook,An, Soon-Il,Cobb, Kim M.,Collins, Mat,Guilyardi, Eric,Jin, Fei-Fei,Kug, Jong-Seong,Lengaigne, Matthieu,McPhaden, Michael J.,Takahashi, Ken,Timmerm Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan P 2015 Nature climate change Vol.5 No.9
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.