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- 저자 : Carlos A. Carrasco (검색결과 2 건)
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Is There a Non-Zero Stable Component in the Eurozone’s External Balances?
Carlos A. Carrasco 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2018 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.33 No.4
We consider the potential presence of a structural component in the external balance of 12 Eurozone countries. To this aim, we define the Structural Component of the External Balance as the unobservable part of the external balance that is stable or evolves slowly and around which fluctuations occur with a potentially cyclical origin that are corrected in the shortterm. We propose a methodology for obtaining the Structural Component of the External Balance by decomposing the external balance using breakpoint tests, and we contrast this methodology against other methods widely used in the economic literature. Moreover, we investigate the factors that determine the Structural Component of the External Balance of Eurozone countries. According to our results, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands have a structural and persistent surplus, whereas Greece, Portugal, and Spain have structural deficits. Furthermore, our results indicate that export specialization, financial openness, and a government deficit/surplus are the key variables explaining the Structural Component of the External Balance.
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Revisiting the Factors behind European External Imbalances
( Carlos A. Carrasco ),( Adrian Hernandez-del-valle ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2017 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.32 No.2
In this paper, we develop four hypotheses for the origins of European imbalances in the context of the European economic integration process. To test the validity of our hypotheses for Germany and Spain, we implement an Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach. According to our results, in the German case, economic and financial integration and non-price competitiveness have played a key role in the evolution of the external balance, whilst for Spain, the external balance is related to catching-up. In addition, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between public finance and external imbalances. We derive important policy implications. On the one hand, deficit countries should ensure that the capital inflows from abroad are allocated to industries with high-added value. On the other hand, surplus countries require the implementation of an expansive economic policy, to lessen the burden of deficit countries when trying to address external imbalances.
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