http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
Prospects for a New Regional Order in Northeast Asia
( Bruce Bueno De Mesquita ),( Chae Han Kim ) 한국국방연구원 1991 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.3 No.2
An expected utility model is used to predict the likely structure of security arrangements in the Northeast Asia region and to evaluate the prospects for cross-recognition and South Korean entry into the United Nations as a full member. We find that the Soviet Union, knowing it will be difficult to form such a security and cooperation structure as the CSCE in a short period of time, will try to conclude a bilateral friendship and cooperation treaty .with each Northeast Asian nation. The United States is not expected to change its Northeast Asia policy. We found that even if the Soviets would drop their stance on multilateral negotiations in Northeast Asia and de-nuclearization of the peninsula, this would not alter the structure of the newly emerging regional order in Northeast Asia. The United States cannot afford the luxury of a unilateral withdrawal from the security negotiation process. Its position is pivotal. The Soviet Union and China are expected to support Seoul`s bid to enter the United Nations. We find that Moscow and Beijing perceive the expected cost of defecting from one of the Koreas to exceed the expected benefit of helping the other Korea. Neither is likely to veto a South Korean entry because each perceives greater benefits than costs from cooperating with the South`s entry. We also forecast Korean cross-recognition. Finally, the predicted new regional order in Northeast Asia favors a weak conference setting that includes both Koreas. The weak conference setting is not expected to have a formalized status such as the CSCE. A Soviet- supported Asian collective security system is unlikely within the current political context. We expect progress toward the expansion of bilateral relations into all pairs of countries concerned.