Charting Technical Trading Rules and the Lottery of Technical Analysis: Empirical Evidence from Foreign Exchange Market

Alexandre Repkine 한국국제통상학회 2008 국제통상연구 Vol.13 No.2

“Beyond 2010 : A Sketch of Future Economic Challenges for Mongolia”

Alexandre Repkine 동중앙아시아경상학회 2011 한몽경상학회 학술대회 Vol.2011 No.1

In this essay I am outlining the major features of Mongolian economic performance during the last decade and sketch out the most promising avenues of development in the future. It appears that sticking to a smart policy of managing windfall profits resulting from the copper export boom in the future is going to be the main challenge for the Mongolian government to face in the next decennium. Channeling those profits into the public infrastructure and productive investment would make a stark difference between long-term growth and stagnation characteristic of the less fortunate victims of the Dutch disease such as Turkmenistan. The development of ger neighborhoods in the vicinity of Ulaan Baataar is another challenge the Mongolian economy will have to face. Specifically, the problems of ensuring smooth transition of the ger areas into the apartment complexes is going to take a long time, while during this transition major infrastructural problems will have to be addressed. In the last section of this essay I am arguing that the introduction of microfinance system similar to the one implemented by the Grameen bank in Bangladesh would help solve a lot of these transitional problems.

Rich in Resources: a Blessing or a Curse? The Case of Mongolia

Alexandre Repkine 동중앙아시아경상학회 2011 한몽경상학회 학술대회 Vol.2011 No.1

In this study we are addressing an important question of whether Mongolia's natural abundance in natural resources is likely to promote economic growth in the country or lead it to stagnation. We argue that the natural resource curse is not cast in stone, but that at the same time little can be expected in terms of the economic prosperity if drastic institutional reforms are not undertaken in the near future. Those reforms would have to concern the transparency of Mongolia's financial sector so as to decrease the cost of capital, and government intervention in order to channel the windfall profits from the mining sector into the infrastructural improvements. Such improvements are especially needed in order to reduce Mongolia's comparative disadvantage in terms of its transportation costs. Encouraging innovative processes in the manufacturing sector especially for the export-oriented firms would be another policy priority.

Does Linguistic Diversity Affect International Trade in East and South Asia?

Alexandre Repkine 동중앙아시아경상학회 2013 한몽경상학회 학술대회 Vol.2013 No.1

While linguistic differences impede international trade by creating communication barriers, linguistic heterogeneity is likely to facilitate trade for at least two reasons. First, the scope of comparative advantages will be wider in case the trading partners represent a linguistically heterogeneous environment as a whole. Second, linguistically heterogeneous countries will be more successful dealing with the communication barriers arising as a result of linguistic differences. Using a sample of East and South Asian economies we find empirical evidence in support of the two heterogeneity hypotheses, at the same time confirming the negative effect of linguistic differences found in earlier studies.

How Similar are the East Asian Economies? A Cluster Analysis Perspective on Economic Cooperation in the Region

Alexandre Repkine 동중앙아시아경상학회 2012 한몽경상학회 학술대회 Vol.2012 No.1

Recent economic calamities such as the 1997 Asian financial crisis have amply demonstrated the need for increased economic integration in the East Asian economic region. While various forms of economic cooperation are possible, it is important to identify groups, or clusters, of countries that are similar to each other economically. Such similarity not only has been shown to be associated with the increased bilateral trade flows, but also with the increased net welfare gains to the participating countries. I employ a variety of clustering techniques and come up with a clustering solution containing four groups of economically similar countries. The clusters are robust across the estimation procedures. Hierarchical clustering also conducted in this study suggests a sequential agglomerating path for the countries to follow. The results of this study are intended as one of the (many) decision tools used by the parties considering multilateral economic cooperation and trade agreements in the region.

Do Linguistic Diversity and the Educational Background Affect Unemployment Rates in the European Union?

Alexandre Repkine,송승훈 한국유럽학회 2014 유럽연구 Vol.32 No.2

In this study we explore the links between linguistic diversity, educationalsystem, and unemployment in the European Union where each country is normallyhome to more than one language. We argue that even in the presence of a linguafranca, or common language, the different mother tongues of both potentialemployees and employers are reflected in different attitudes towards workingpractices and cooperation. We formulate several hypotheses that reflect the factthat such differences may both promote or restrict employment. In particular, wetest the hypotheses of skill complementarity, language-centered behavior, socialcohesion and political awareness for the sample of twenty-seven Europeancountries during the period between 2000 and 2010. We find substantial evidencein favor of the hypotheses of language-centered behavior and political awareness,suggesting that the school system as it currently is in the EU does not functionas a social cohesion tool.

Linguistic Diversity, Unemployment and Schooling: Empirical Evidence from the East-Asian Countries

Alexandre Repkine,송승훈 경희대학교(국제캠퍼스) 국제지역연구원 2013 아태연구 Vol.20 No.2

We explore both direct and indirect effects of linguistic diversity may produce on the labor market outcomes, in particular unemployment. For this purpose we use a measure of linguistic diversity that takes account of the languages’ mutual intelligibility with a sample of seventeen East and South Asian countries to test the hypotheses of skill complementarity, ethnocentric behavior, social cohesion, and political aspirations. The latter two hypotheses correspond to the indirect effects of linguistic diversity on unemployment working through the educational system that encourages social integration of the minority language groups on the one hand, while increasing the risk of social conflict due to the ethnolinguistic differences. We find significant support for the hypotheses of ethnocentric behavior and political aspirations with the exception of primary school graduates for whom there is evidence of skill complementarities effect at work. 노동시장에서 언어의 다양성이 실업에 미치는 직접 및 간접효과를 탐색하였다. 연구를 위하여 기술상보성(skill complementarity), 자기민족중심적 행동(ethnocentric behavior), 사회적 응집성(social cohesion) 및 정치적 열망(political aspirations) 등에 관한 가설을 설정하고, 이들의 검증을 위하여 동남아시아 17개국의 언어표본을 바탕으로 언어상호간의 이해성을 고려하여 언어의 다양화를 측정하였다. 사회적 응집성 (social cohesion) 및 정치적 열망(political aspirations)에 관한 가설은 실업에 대한 언어다양성의 간접적인 효과로서, 이는 한편으로는 소수언어 집단의 사회적 융합을 촉진시키는 교육제도를 통하여 나타나며 다른 한편으로는 민족언어학의 차이로 인한 갈등의 위험을 증가시키는 효과로 나타나기도 한다. 가설검증 결과 직장에서 기술상보성(skill complementarity)의 효과를 명백히 보이는 초등학교 졸업자의 경우를 예외로 하고, 자기민족중심적 행동(ethnocentric behavior)과 정치적 야망(political aspirations)에 관한 가설은 확실하게 입증되었다.

A Spatial Approach to the Hedonic Pricing of Apartment Attributes : The Case of Vladivostok

Repkine, Alexandre(알렉산드레 래프킨),Song, Seung-Hoon(송승훈) 한국부동산학회 2015 不動産學報 Vol.63 No.-

1. 내 용 (1) 연구목적 본 연구의 목적은 러시아 블라디보스톡의 지리적인 위치의 효과를 고려한 아파트의 상대적인 특성을 탐색하기 위함이다. 첫째로, 아파트의 가격은 이웃 아파트의 평균 가격에 영향을 받는 다는 것이고, 둘째로, 아파트 지역이나 혹은 가장 가까운 철도역까지의 거리와 같은 질적인 특성을 나타내는 관찰할 수 없는 공간적인 특성을 분리하였다는 것이다. (2) 연구방법 모델은 아파트의 다면적 특성에 대한 헤도닉 가격모형을 설정하였다. 헤도닉 가격설정 모형에 공간가중구성(spatial weight matrix)을 포함함에 의하여 이웃 아파트의 평균 가격의 영향을 모델에 설정하였다. 또한 공간가중구성(spatial weight matrix)의 함수로 관찰 할 수 없는 이질성(heterogeneity)을 고려하여 관찰 할 수 없는 공간효과를 모델 설정하였다. 샘플의 크기는 블라디보스톡의 729개 아파트를 실증분석하였고, 모델의 추정방법은 R을 활용 하였다. (3) 연구결과 연구 분석 결과 샘플에서 통계적으로 매우 유의한 공간 이질성 효과의 존재가 증명되었으며, 이는 분석에서 공간회귀방법(spatial regression methods)의 적용을 보장하는 것이었다. 연구결과는 3개의 가장 근접한 이웃을 고려한 방법이나, 혹은 지리적인 거리나 개인적인 특성의 효과의 크기나 공간모델의 선택에 근거한 방법은 동일하다는 관점에서, 공간가중구성(spatial weights matrix)을 선택함으로써 견고(robust)한 연구결과를 나타내었다. 2. 결과 실증분석의 결과는 아파트 위치의 관측 되지 않는 특징들이 차지하는 역할이 아파트의 평균 가격이나 질적인 특성의 영향과 비교하여 상대적으로 큰 것으로 나타났다. 아파트의 지역은 아파트 가격을 결정하는데 결정적인 역할을 하는 반면, 주방 크기의 추가적인 확장이 거실 크기의 확장보다 50%이상의 효과를 나타내었다. In this study we look at the effects spatial heterogeneity produces on the apartment price variation in Vladivostok, an important city in the Russian Far East. Along with the traditional apartment attributes such as living area, we also consider the kitchen area, which appears to be more important in Russia. We report estimates based on six specifications of the spatial lag and error models, and the spatial weights based on the geographical distance or the k nearest neighbors. Our estimates imply that our data sample is most adequately described by the spatial error model, suggesting that any apartment’s price is largely a function of the unobserved characteristics of the neighboring apartments rather than its own attributes. However, our results leave open a possibility of the Vladivostok apartments' prices being a function of geographical location alone.

Clustering by Linguistic Characteristics and International Trade

Alexandre Repkine,송승훈 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.6

This study focuses on the effects of similar language structures on bilateral trade between countries. While it has been established in the literature that countries sharing the same language trade more, we believe this is just a sub-case of a more general phenomenon that has to do with the fact that trade barriers are significantly reduced in case the negotiating parties share the same way of thinking. This in turn, we believe, is strongly linked to the language structure. By using a comprehensive database of language structures and bilateral trade flows, we confirm our hypothesis by finding that linguistic structural similarity is producing a strong effect on the international trade flows, which is independent of the extent to which the two trading partners’ principal languages are mutually intelligible. This study emphasizes the need for more research linking the stock of knowledge accumulated by the science of psychology to economics, and the often overlooked importance of insights that can be suggested by cluster analysis.

방향성 벡터 일반화를 통한 이산화탄소의 한계저감비용 연구

( Alexandre Repkine ),민동기 ( Dong Ki Min ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2013 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.22 No.3

기존 연구에서는 이산화탄소의 한계저감비용을 추정할 경우 쌍대성 이론에 근거하여 임의로 설정된 하나의 방향성 벡터(directional vector) 설정하였으나 본 연구에서는 이러한 한계를 극복하고자 다양한 형태의 방향성 벡터를 사용하여 이산화탄소의 한계저감비용을 추정하였다. 기존의 방법론에서는 임의로 설정된 방향성 벡터가 한계저감비용 추정에 결정적인 역할을 하여 선택된 방향성 벡터에 따라 한계저감 비용 추정치가 상당한 차이가 있음을 알 수 있다. 그리고 45°의 방향성 벡터를 설정하는 경우에는 실제 이산화탄소 배출량 수준과는 다른 배출량 수준에서의 한계저감비용을 추정하게 되지만 본 연구에서 제안한 방법론에 의하여 추정된 한계저감비용은 실제 이산화탄소 배출량 수준에서 한계저감비용을 추정하여 보다 더 현실을 정확하게 반영하는 추정치이다. 새로운 방법론을 서유럽 국가에 적용하여 추정한 이산화탄소의 한계저감비용은 기존 방법론을 사용하는 경우에 비하여 적은 것으로 추정되었다. This study proposes an iterative approach to the estimation of the marginal abatement costs of undesirable outputs by computing the slope of the efficient production possibilities frontier on the basis of the efficient projection points generated by the directional output distance function approach due to Fare et al. (2005) based on duality theory. In case of the latter methodology, the estimated marginal abatement costs differ significantly depending on the choice of the directional output vector. In addition, depending on the curvature of the underlying PPF the efficient projection points may be located at a significant distance away from their actually observed counterparts. While it would be more logical to estimate marginal abatement costs as a PPF slope at a point corresponding to the actually observed emissions level, the methodology based on duality theory is likely to produce unstable results due to the problems associated with applying the theorem of implicit function differentiation. Since our methodology is not based on duality theory, our results are immune to both of these problems. We apply our methodology to a sample of Western European countries for the period of 1995-2011 to illustrate our approach.