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        Evaluating high-resolution forecasts of atmospheric CO and CO<sub>2</sub> from a global prediction system during KORUS-AQ field campaign

        Tang, Wenfu,Arellano, Avelino F.,DiGangi, Joshua P.,Choi, Yonghoon,Diskin, Glenn S.,Agustí,-Panareda, Anna,Parrington, Mark,Massart, Sebastien,Gaubert, Benjamin,Lee, Youngjae,Kim, Danbi,Jung, Ji Copernicus GmbH 2018 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol.18 No.15

        <P><p><strong>Abstract.</strong> <span id='page11008'/>Accurate and consistent monitoring of anthropogenic combustion is imperative because of its significant health and environmental impacts, especially at city-to-regional scale. Here, we assess the performance of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global prediction system using measurements from aircraft, ground sites, and ships during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field study in May to June 2016. Our evaluation focuses on CAMS CO and <span class='inline-formula'>CO<sub>2</sub></span> analyses as well as two higher-resolution forecasts (16 and 9<span class='thinspace'></span>km horizontal resolution) to assess their capability in predicting combustion signatures over east Asia. Our results show a slight overestimation of CAMS <span class='inline-formula'>CO<sub>2</sub></span> with a mean bias against airborne <span class='inline-formula'>CO<sub>2</sub></span> measurements of 2.2, 0.7, and 0.3<span class='thinspace'></span>ppmv for 16 and 9<span class='thinspace'></span>km <span class='inline-formula'>CO<sub>2</sub></span> forecasts, and analyses, respectively. The positive <span class='inline-formula'>CO<sub>2</sub></span> mean bias in the 16<span class='thinspace'></span>km forecast appears to be consistent across the vertical profile of the measurements. In contrast, we find a moderate underestimation of CAMS CO with an overall bias against airborne CO measurements of <span class='inline-formula'>−</span>19.2 (16<span class='thinspace'></span>km), <span class='inline-formula'>−</span>16.7 (9<span class='thinspace'></span>km), and <span class='inline-formula'>−</span>20.7<span class='thinspace'></span>ppbv (analysis). This negative CO mean bias is mostly seen below 750<span class='thinspace'></span>hPa for all three forecast/analysis configurations. Despite these biases, CAMS shows a remarkable agreement with observed enhancement ratios of CO with <span class='inline-formula'>CO<sub>2</sub></span> over the Seoul metropolitan area and over the West (Yellow) Sea, where east Asian outflows were sampled during the study period. More efficient combustion is observed over Seoul (<span class='inline-formula'><math xmlns='http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML' id='M12' display='inline' overflow='scroll' dspmath='mathml'><mrow><mi mathvariant='normal'>d</mi><mrow class='chem'><mi mathvariant='normal'>CO</mi></mrow><mo>/</mo><mi mathvariant='normal'>d</mi><mrow class='chem'><msub><mi mathvariant='normal'>CO</mi><mn mathvariant='normal'>2</mn></msub></mrow><mo>=</mo><mn mathvariant='normal'>9</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' width='77pt' height='14pt' class='svg-formula' dspmath='mathimg' md5hash='e15dbed157728345ac15fd0589ea867d'><svg:image xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink' xlink:href='acp-18-11007-2018-ie00001.svg' width='77pt' height='14pt' src='acp-18-11007-2018-ie00001.png'/></svg:svg></span></span><span class='thinspace'></span>ppbv<span class='thinspace'></span>ppmv<span class='inline-formula'><sup>−1</sup></span>) compared to the West Sea (<span class='inline-formula'><math xmlns='http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML' id='M14' display='inline' overflow='scroll' dspmath='mathml'><mrow><mi mathvariant='normal'>d</mi><mrow class='chem'><mi mathvariant='normal'>CO</mi></mrow><mo>/</mo><mi mathvariant='normal'>d</mi><mrow class='chem'><msub><mi mathvariant='normal'>CO</mi><mn mathvariant='normal'>2</mn></msub></mrow><mo>=</mo><mn mathvariant='normal'>28</mn></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' width='83pt' height='14pt' class='svg-formula' dspmath='mathimg' md5hash='3be8931fd245903ba9a1c1d59edabca9'><svg:image xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink' xlink:href='acp-18-11007-2018-ie00002.svg' width='83pt' height='14pt' src='acp-18-11007-2018-ie00002.png'/></svg:svg></span></span><span class='thinspace'></span>ppbv<span class='thinspace'></span>pp

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