KNOU논총 제76집

이충기 한국방송통신대학교 2023 KNOU논총 Vol.76 No.-

지하수의 가치와 평가방법에 관한 연구 ················································································································· 이충기 ················· 1 선거여론조사의 예측 정확성 분석: 제 7회 전국동시지방선거를 중심으로 ··································································································· 이기재 · 김진실 ··············· 19 현장 생물촉진법에 의한 유류 오염토양 처리 ················································································································· 권수열 ··············· 37 비교문화적 관점에서 본 아동과 청소년의 감사 개념 발달 : 한국과 미국 ················································································································· 이소은 ··············· 59

Trimazosin의 강압효과

이충기,이형우,전재경,박의현,박희명 대한순환기학회 1985 Korean Circulation Journal Vol.15 No.4

최적 시계열 수요예측 모델선정에 관한 연구

이충기,송학준 한국관광학회 2007 관광학연구 Vol.31 No.6

This study aims to develop four time-series models in order to select the best model among the time-series models based on MAPE(mean absolute percentage error). The time-series models include various ones including ARIMA model. The first three models have been most popularly used for forecasting tourism demand, whereas the last model of ARIMA Intervention is reported to be more logical and accurate than any other time-series models since special events such as terrorism and mega-events can be incorporated into the model. The results of model estimation indicate that all the four forecasting models were found most accurate in terms of MAPE(Lewis, 1982). Of them the ARIMA Intervention model(MAPE=4.48) appeared to perform best in terms of forecasting accuracy, followed by ARIMA(MAPE=4.96), Winters(5.67), and Stepwise Autoregressive(8.55).핵심용어(Key words):예측정확도(Forecasting accuracy), 윈터스지수평활모델(Winters Exponential Smoothing model), 단계적 자기회귀모델(Stepwise Autoregressive model), ARIMA모델(ARIMA model), ARIMA 개입모델(ARIMA Intervention model). 방한 일본인 관광객은 외래관광객 중 가장 큰 비중을 차지하면서 총 방한 외래관광객의 증감에 주도적 영향을 미치고 있다. 또한, 최근 경제성장과 국가간 교류증가에 따라 중국인 관광객이 미국인 관광객을 제치고 제2의 인바운드 시장으로 부상하고 있는데, 이러한 추세는 <그림 1>을 통해서도 가시적으로 확인할 수 있다.<표 1> 방한 외래객 방문현황과 관광환경 변화연도외래관광객성장률관광환경 변화19902,958,8398.5%-19913,196,3408.0%걸프전19923,231,0811.1%-19933,331,2263.1%대전엑스포 개최19943,580,0247.5%한국방문의 해19953,753,1974.8%-19963,683,779-1.8%-19973,908,1406.1%아시아 금융위기와 IMF19984,250,2168.8%한국경제위기 및 원화약세 지속 19994,659,7859.6%-20005,321,79214.2%인천국제공항개항20015,147,204-3.3%9.11 테러 발생 및 한국방문의 해20025,347,4683.9%한일 월드컵 공동개최20034,753,604-11.1%SARS 발병, 이라크전쟁20045,818,13822.4%한류열풍20056,021,7643.5%한일공동방문의 해 20066,155,0462.2%

건축사등록원(가칭) - 새로운 건축사 관리제도

이충기 새건축사협의회 2006 건축과사회 Vol.3 No.-

강원랜드 카지노리조트 개발로 인한 강원지역과타 지역에 미친 경제적 파급효과 분석

이충기,이강욱 한국관광학회 2010 관광학연구 Vol.34 No.4

Using a regional input-output(I-O) model, this study estimated the economic impacts of Kangwon Land casino resort on Gangwon province and other regions in Korea. Tourism sectors were derived from transactions tables, which were developed by the Bank of Korea in 2009. Results indicated that in 2009, Kangwon Land casino resort generated 2,102 billion Won of output impact throughout direct and indirect effects, representing 77.5% for intra-region and 22.5% for other regions. Results also showed that the casino resort generated 342 billion Won of income impact(76.0% for intra-region and 24.0% for other regions), 1,111 billion Won of value-added impact(81.8% for intra-region and 18.2% for other regions), and 171 billion Won of tax impact(83.8% for intra-region and 16.2% for other regions). Finally, results indicated that both 21,118 non-paid and full-time jobs were also created, accounting for 80.4% for intra-region and 19.6% for other regions in Korea.

건축가의 공공적 활동과 공공적 자리찾기

이충기 새건축사협의회 2013 건축과사회 Vol.23 No.-

지역산업연관모델을 이용한 전통시장 활성화사업의 경제적 파급효과 분석 - 서울 수유마을시장을 중심으로 -

이충기,송학준 한국관광학회 2011 관광학연구 Vol.35 No.5

Using an regional input-output(I-O) model, this study estimated the economic impact of traditional market revitalization project on the economy of Seoul, To this end traditional market related sectors were derived from transactions tables developed by Bank of Korea(2009) and their multipliers were calculated in terms of output, income, value added, and employment. Onsite surveys were also conducted for merchants in the Suyu traditional market to estimate sectoral revenues and margin. The results indicated that in 2010, the Suyu traditional market generated 7.8 billion Won of net output impact, 1.4 billion Won of net income impact, 3.3 billion Won of net value-added impact, and 123 net non-paid and full-time jobs throughout direct and indirect effects. These impacts exceeded 0.4 billion Won of initial investment by Korean government, indicating economically successful project. 본 연구의 목적은 지역산업연관분석을 이용하여 문화를 통한 전통시장 활성화 시범사업(문전성시)이 서울시 경제에 미친 경제적 효과를 측정하는데 있다. 본 연구목적을 달성하기 위해 한국은행(2009)에서 작성한 서울지역산업연관표로부터 전통시장과 연관된 산업부문을 분류하고, 부문별 생산, 소득, 부가가치, 그리그 취업승수를 도출하였다. 전통시장의 업종별 매출액과 마진을 추정하기 위해 서울 수유마을시장의 상인들을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였다. 분석결과 2010년 문전성시 사업을 통해 수유시장에서 발생한 순 경제적 파급효과를 구체적으로 살펴보면, 생산파급액은 약 78억원, 소득파급액은 약 14억원, 부가가치파급액은 약 33억원, 그리고 취업파급자수는 123명으로 나타났다. 이러한 경제적 파급효과는 수유시장에 대한 정부의 문전성시 지원액인 4억원을 초과하여 경제적으로 성공적인 활성화 프로젝트였음을 지적해준다.

갑상선 기능 저하증을 동반한 기질성 기분 장애

이충기,박원명,김광수 한국의학사 1994 診斷과治療 Vol.14 No.10

유희적 갬블러와 병적 갬블러간 게임동기⋅열정⋅감정상태⋅행동의도간 구조관계 분석

이충기,백기준 한국관광학회 2010 관광학연구 Vol.34 No.6

This study aimed to compare the structural relationships among gambling motivation, gambling passion, emotion, and behavioral intentions to gamble between recreation gamblers(RG) and pathological gamblers(PG). Data were collected from 200 recreational gamblers and 200 pathological gamblers who were selected purposively by a survey research agency on March 2010. The results from the structural equation modeling analysis indicated that there were significant effect of extrinsic motivations on obsessive passion for PG, and significant effect of intrinsic motivation on harmonious passion for RG. Further, PG showed strong effect of obsessive passion on negative emotion, whereas RG had significant effect of harmonious passion on positive emotion. It is interesting to note that behavioral intention was only determined by positive affective attitude(harmonious passion and positive emotion) for RG, while PG's behavioral intention was not determined by volitional process.

합법 인터넷 도박 이용자의 도박행동 추세: 신규 가입 후 2년간 베팅 횟수 및 금액 분석

이충기,권선중,이태경,김교헌 한국건강심리학회 2010 한국심리학회지 건강 Vol.15 No.2

본 연구에서는 LaPlante, Schumann, LaBrie 및 Shaffer(2008)가 수행한 인터넷 도박 연구를 참고하여, 신규 가입 후 약 2년간 국내 합법 인터넷 도박 사이트 이용자들의 베팅 횟수와 금액 변화를 분석했다. 이를 통해 모집단 수준에서 관찰되는 실제 인터넷 도박행동 패턴을 파악하고, 부적응적 도박행동에 대한 정교한 이해의 틀을 얻고자 했다. 국내에서 유일한 합법 인터넷 도박(스포츠 베팅) 사이트에서 2007년 8월부터 12월 사이에 신규 가입한 28,971명을 대상으로 2009년 11월까지(23~28개월)의 베팅 횟수와 금액 자료를 수집하였다. 개인별 가입 일자부터 참여일수를 계산하는 방식으로 자료를 재구성한 후 참여 일수와 베팅 횟수 및 액수 간의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 분석결과 LaPlante 등의 결과와 유사하게, 시간이 지남에 따라 이용자들의 베팅 횟수와 액수가 유의하고 급격하게 감소하는 적응 행동 양상을 보였고, 그 양상은 성별이나 연령대에 관계없이 모두 유사하였다(r=-.628~-.797, all ps<.001). 끝으로 본 연구 결과를 인터넷 도박 연구의 방향과 관련 시켜 논의했다. The purpose of this study was to analyze population trends in legalized internet gambling based on the study of LaPlante, Schumann, LaBrie, and Shaffer(2008). This study attempted to gain an elaborate understanding of maladaptive gambling behavior based on actual behavior patterns observed directly from the population of Internet gamblers. Data was collected from 28,971 members who had first registered on a legal Internet gambling(sports betting) site between August and December, 2007. The number of bets and betting amounts until November, 2009 (total 23∼28 months) were collected. This study conducted a correlation analysis between number of participating days, number of bets, and betting amounts after computing individual days of gambling participation from activation of each initial membership. The results of this study were found consistent with those reported by LaPlante et al.(2008)in that the number of bets and betting amounts of gamblers showed significantly decreasing patterns of adaptive behavior and the patterns were similar regardless of gender and age(r=-.628~-.797, all ps<.001). Finally, we discussed the findings from the results associated with future direction on the study of Internet gambling.