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최준환(Joonhwan Choi) 영남대학교 중국연구센터 2017 중국과 중국학 Vol.- No.32
본 연구에서는 선행연구들의 연구 결과들을 기반으로 중국의 범죄율에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 경제 거시적인 측면을 중심으로 경기변동과 범죄율의 비대칭성을 고려하며, 연구 기간을 개혁개방 이후부터 최근까지로 확장하여 분석하고자 한다. 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 1978년부터 2014년까지 전체기간에서는 도시화와 실업률이 통계적으로 유의한 양(+)의 결과를 보여주고 있다. 둘째, 1978년부터 1994년에는 경제성장률과 도시화 그리고 실업률이 유의미한 결과를 보여주고 있는데 반해, 1995년부터 2014년까지의 결과에서는 도시화만이 유일하게 유의미한 결과를 보여주고 있다. 셋째, 1995년부터 2014년까지의 결과에서는 실업률이 유의하지 않은 결과가 나타나고 있으며, 유일하게 도시화만이 유의미한 양(+)의 결과를 보여주고 있다. 넷째, 경제변동에 따라 범죄 발생이 어떻게 비대칭적으로 발생하는지 분석한 결과 경제성장률은 경기회복기와 경기침체기 모두 유의하지 않은 결과가 나타나고 있으나, 실업률은 경기회복기와 경기침체기 모두 유의수준 1%에서 유의한 양(+)의 결과가 나타났으며, 탄력성과 표준화 계수에 의하면 실업률은 경기회복기가 경기침체기에 비해 범죄율 발생에 좀 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. In this study, based on the precedent research results, we plan to analyze the factors that affect the crime rate of China, considering the asymmetry between the economic fluctuation and the crime rate, focusing on the economic macroscopic aspect, with expending the research period from the reform opening to the recent. The main analysis results are as followings. First, in the whole period from 1978 to 2014, the urbanization and the unemployment rate show statistically positive (+) results. Second, while the economic growth rate, the urbanization and the unemployment rate show significant results in the period from 1978 to 1994, only urbanization shows meaningful results in the period from 1995 to 2014. Third, while unemployment rate does not show much significant result in the period from 1995 to 2014, only urbanization showed significantly positive (+) result. Fourthly, as a result of analyzing how crime occurs asymmetrically according to the economic fluctuation, economic growth rate showed no meaningful result in both recovery and recession. However, the unemployment rate showed significant level of 1% positive (+) results in both recovery and recession and according to the elasticity and standardized coefficient, unemployment rate has shown to have heavier effect on crime rate in recovery than in recession.
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최준환 ( Choi Joonhwan ) 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 2018 中國硏究 Vol.75 No.-
Recently in China, the term ‘Four New Major Inventions’ has developed. The ‘Four New Inventions’ came from the ancient Chinese ‘The Four Major Inventions’. The four new major inventions are not actually from China. However, they are quickly propagated and commercialized through China’s big market. The four new major inventions are currently leading a change in China and they will become key factors in estimating further change in the future. Therefore, this study has analyzed the economic implications of China’s four new major inventions. The main results are as follows. First, the China’s construction of High Speed Rail has facilitated the traffic and reduced the distance of time and space, which spread out the functions of central city to the surrounding cities and therefore intensifying one city. As a result, the derived cities act as new developing power of China’s economy. Furthermore, the development of high-speed railroad is accelerating China’s conversion as a ‘mass manufacturer’ to a ‘powerful manufacturer.’ Second, the development of mobile payment will ultimately boost China’s Fin Tech industry, while increasing the competitiveness of the related firms through newly designed business models and eventually escalate the global expansion of Chinese companies. Third, Bike sharing will speed up the development of China’s sharing economy and enhance the level of public welfare. This will vitalize the consumption market and act as a positive effect on job creation, such as business establishment, by accelerating various emergence of business models through smart-phone-based sharing economical platform. Furthermore, the data retained from share-bike will reinforce the development of China’s Big Data industry. Fourth, the internet shopping has shown a new consuming trend with the development of new consumer and the expansion of consuming regions. In addition, the growth of the internet shopping will promote the development of New Retail business models that use technology based on the 4th Industrial Revolution, such as big data, artificial intelligence, and robotics.
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최정석 ( Choi Jungseok ),최준환 ( Choi Joonhwan ) 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 2021 中國硏究 Vol.86 No.-
China’s reform and opening-up policies began 40 years ago, resulting in decades of rapid economic growth that has given rise to the world’s second-biggest economy. On the other hand, however, there are negative effects of economic growth. As a result, interest in the Human Development Index is increasing in China. The Human Development Index was created to emphasize that people and their capabilities should be the ultimate criteria for assessing the development of a country, not economic growth alone. Therefore, this study analyzed the gap between human development indexes using data from regions in China. The main analysis results are as follows: First, China's human development index increased with economic development. The Human Development Index increased relatively quickly in areas where the economy developed. This development of the Human Development Index will be the cornerstone of the construction of China's Xiaocang society. Second, China's regional gap shows that the gap has decreased sharply in all regions, but the trend and size of the gap have changed by region and time. Third, a regional differences in same region are rapidly decreasing, but the regional differences has increased significantly. Fourth, in the early days of reform and opening, the economic part greatly affected the differences in the human development index, but recently, the impact of education on the human development index has been significant. Based on these key analysis results, the following implications are presented: First, it is necessary to transition from an unbalanced development strategy to a balanced development strategy. Second, it is necessary to transition from physical capital to human capital.
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