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곽한성 ( Gwak Han-seong ),최병윤 ( Choi Byung-youn ),이창용 ( Yi Chang-yong ),이동은 ( Lee Dong-eun ) 한국건축시공학회 2018 한국건축시공학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.18 No.1
The accuracy of contingency estimation plays an important role for dealing with the uncertainty of the financial success of construction project. Its’ estimation may be used for various purposes such as schedule control, emergency resolve, and quality expense, etc. This paper presents a contingency estimation method which is schedule control specific. The method 1) implements stochastic EVMS, 2) detects a specific timing for schedule compression, 3) identifies an optimal strategy for shortening planned schedule, 4) finds a probability density function (PDF) of project cost overrun, and 5) estimates the optimal contingency cost based on the level of confidence. The method facilitates expeditious decisions involved in project budgeting. The validity of the method is confirmed by performing test case.