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지효근(Hyokeun Jee) 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2006 동서연구 Vol.18 No.2
지금까지 북한의 군사전략에 대한 연구는 연구주제의 난해성과 자료의 제한성 때문에 활발하게 진행되지 못한 것이 사실이다. 그나마 이에 대한 접근을 시도하고 있는 연구 들조차 탈냉전 이후 북한의 변화된 군사전 략과 이에 근거한 무기체계 변화를 제대로 보여주지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 문제의식을 바탕으로 이 논문은 탈냉전기 이후 북한의 변화된 군사전략과 무기체계를 분석하고 이에 기초하여 한국의 정책적 대응방안을 제시한다. 냉전기 북한의 군사전략은 선제기습공격, 단기속전속결, 정규전과 비정규전의 배합 등으로 요약된다. 이를 달성하기 위한 무기체계 역시 질적인 개선과 함께 양적인 팽창을 통해 남한에 비해 압도적 군사적 우위를 달성했다. 그러나 1980년대 말 이후 냉전체제가 해체되면서 북한은 재래식 군사력의 질적 열세를 단숨에 극복하고 한국의 재래식 군사력 우위를 점하려는 노력을 상쇄할 수있는 대량살상무기체계의 개발과 이를 이용한 대량살상전략을 지향하고 있다. 또 군사 력의 전방배치와 장사정포의 집중배치로 공세적 위협전략을 취하고 있는데, 이러한 북한의 군사전략은 탈 냉전기 북한의 경제적 곤란과 국제적 고립 상황 속에서 체제의 생존과 남한 통일이라는 국가목표를 달성하기 위한 군사적 대안이라고 할 수 있다. 이러한 북한의 변화된 군사전략에 대응하기 위해 한국은 북한사회의 근본적 변화를 유도하기 위한 대북 포용정책의 지속과 함께 이러한 정책을 지원할 수 있는 실질적 수단으로서 군사적 능력을 배가시켜 나가야 한다. 특히 한미동맹 강화를 통해 효과적인 대북억제력을 유지해야 한다. 아울러 북한의 대량살상무기체계 폐기를 위한 국제사회의 공감대를 이끌어내고 현재 진행 중인 6자회 담과 같은 국제사회와의 협력과 공조를 통해 북한 문제를 해결하려는 외교적 능력의 향상 역시 꾀해야 할 것이다. Until now, the studies on North Korean military strategy have been not fully activated because of the difficulties of topic and the limits of data. Even though some try to analyze this issues, they fail to illustrate the characteristics of North Korean military strategy and the weapon system that has changed after the end of the cold war. Main purpose of this study is to analyze the changing North Korean military strategy and weapon system and to present the policy option for South Korea to respond North Korea s changes. In the cold war era, North Korean military strategy can be characterized surgical strike, blitz tactics, and mixed warfare with regular and irregular one. To accomplish these military goal, North Korea expanded not only the quantity but also the quality of the military power. In the late of 1980s, however, North Korea began to lose military superiority against South Korea because of economic difficulties and international isolation. North Korea finally introduced new military strategy and weapon system relying on strategic weapon, such as nuke, chemical and biological weapons, and long range missiles to restore military superiority. North Korea ㄴ new strategy focused on mass destruction strategy and offensive threat strategy To come up with the changing North Korean military strategy, South Korea not only continues engagement policy to lead a fundamental social change of North Korea but also strengthens military capacity as an instrument for supporting engagement policy.Mostly, South Korea maintains deterrence capacity through the firm Korea-U.S. alliance. Finally, South Korea tries to promote diplomatic power to lead common sense for preventing proliferation of North Korea’s WMD and international multilateral cooperation such as the six party talks for peaceful resolution for North Korean issues.
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김금수 ( Kim¸ Keumsoo ),지효근 ( Jee¸ Hyokeun ) 한국군사학회 2021 군사논단 Vol.106 No.-
Since dispatching the UN PKO to Somalia in 1993, Korea has participated in the UN’s peacekeeping activities for 27 years and has made a successful contribution to international peace activities. PKO participation is important from the perspective of public diplomacy, which is emerging as a major foreign policy in many countries. In the process of PKO activities, Korea has paid much attention to civil military operations, which can be called public diplomatic activities, and has performed its mission more successfully than any other countries. In recent years, as the patterns and threats of international disputes have changed in various ways, international peace activities are changing into a multidimensional and complex mission different from the past. Accordingly, a paradigm shift is required in Korea’s international peace activities. Considering the changing circumstances of the international politics and complex missions of peace activities, changes in Korea’s peace activities are needed. It is necessary to take a step further from the international peace activities of the United Nations, which previously focused on the aspect of maintaining international peace, and to approach and promote public diplomacy in a more strategic aspect To this end, it is necessary to establish an organization that can better carry out the mandate in accordance with the recently changing direction of the UN’s international peace activities, and to participate with the integrated public diplomacy capabilities of the private, public, and military sectors.
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한미 방위비분담금 협상 결정요인 연구: 양면게임이론(Two Level Games Theory)을 중심으로
김금수(Geumsoo Kim),지효근(Hyokeun Jee) 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2021 한국군사학논집 Vol.77 No.3
Robert D. Putnam proposed the Two Level Games Theory as a framework for analyzing factors influencing foreign policy decision making. The Two Level Theory consists of two levels: international negotiations and domestic negotiations. Because international and domestic politics are closely correlated, foreign policies such as inter-state negotiations are determined under the simultaneous action of international and domestic pressures(Level I). The Two Level Games Theory has not achieved solid status as a theory due to several limitations such as variable diversity, but it has usefulness in analyzing foreign policy determinants that require negotiations between countries. The South Korea-U.S. SMA(Special Measure Agreement) negotiations are a combination of international and domestic factors that affect decision making. SMA negotiations, which have continued since 1991, have been determined by political and economic factors between the two countries. In particular, the 10th and 11th negotiations, which took place under the Trump administration, were analyzed to have been affected by a variety of international and domestic variables than ever before. In the Level I negotiations, international political issues such as the special alliance identity between Korea and the U.S., NATO"s defense expenditure increase, the termination of the Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement(GSOMIA), South Korea"s decision to dispatch troops to Hormuz, and South Korea"s decision on early transfer of wartime operational control affected the negotiations. In the Level II negotiations, the pressure from Congress, domestic opinions, the suspension of wages for the Korean workers of U.S. Forces Korea, the continuous reduction of the share of defense cost-sharing in the defense budget, and no cases of refusal of the ratification by the Korean National Assembly affected the negotiations..
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