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황사농도 단기예측모델의 PM10 농도와 실측 PM10 농도의 비교
조창범(Changbum Cho),전영신(Youngsin Chun),구본양(Bonyang Ku),박순웅(Soon-Ung Park),이상삼(Sang-Sam Lee),정연앙(Yun-Ang Chung) 한국기상학회 2007 대기 Vol.17 No.1
Simulation results of Asian Dust Aerosol Model (ADAM) for the period of April 7-9, 2006 were analyzed, comparing with observed PM10 data. ADAM simulated around ten times lower than on-site PM10 concentration in the source regions: Zhurihe, Tongliao, Yushe, Dalian and Huimin. As the result of this low concentration, transported amounts of Asian Dust were under-estimated as well. In order to quantify a forecasting accuracy, Bias and RMSE were calculated. Even though remarkably negative Biases and high RMSEs were observed, ADAM simulation had followed well up the time of dust outbreak and a transported path. However, the emission process to generate dust from source regions requires a great enhancement. The PM10 concentration at the surface reached up to 2,300 ㎍ m?³ at Baeknyoungdo and Seoul (Mt. Gwanak), up to 1,750 ㎍ m?³ at KGAWO about 18:00 LST in April 8, respectively; however, ADAM did not simulate the same result on its second peak. It is considered that traveling Asian dust might have been lagged over the Korean peninsula by the blocking of surface high pressure. Moreover, the current RDAPS's 30 km grid resolution (which ADAM adopts as the meteorological input data) might not adequately represent small-scale atmospheric motions below planetary boundary layer.
시간 고해상도 라디오존데 관측 자료를 이용한 WRF 모델 행성경계층고도 정확도 평가
강미선(Misun Kang),임윤규(Yun-Kyu Lim),조창범(Changbum Cho),김규랑(Kyu Rang Kim),박준상(Jun Sang Park),김백조(Baek-Jo Kim) 한국기상학회 2016 대기 Vol.26 No.4
Understanding limitation of simulation for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) height in mesoscale meteorological model is important for accurate meteorological variable and diffusion of air pollution. This study examined the accuracy for simulated PBL heights using two different PBL schemes (MYJ, YSU) in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the radiosonde observation period. The simulated PBL height were verified using atmospheric sounding data obtained from radiosonde observations that were conducted during 5 months from August to December 2014 over the Gumi weir in Nakdong river. Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) using radiosonde observation data were conducted to reduce error of PBL height in WRF model. The assessment result of PBL height showed that RMSE with YSU scheme were lower than that with MYJ scheme in the day and night time, respectively. Especially, the WRF model with YSU scheme produced lower PBL height than with the MYJ scheme during night time. The YSU scheme showed lower RMSE than the MYJ scheme on sunny, cloudy and rainy day, too. The experiment result of FDDA showed that PBL height error were reduced by FDDA and PBL height at the nudging coefficient of 3.0 × 10<SUP>−1</SUP><SUP></SUP> (YSU_FDDA_2) were similar to observation compared to the nudging coefficient of 3.0 × 10<SUP>−4</SUP> (YSU_FDDA_1).
주간에 두 타워로부터 관측된 에디 공분산 자료의 확률 오차의 추정
임희정(Hee-Jeong Lim),이영희(Young-Hee Lee),조창범(Changbum Cho),김규랑(Kyu Rang Kim),김백조(Baek-Jo Kim) 한국기상학회 2016 대기 Vol.26 No.3
We have examined the random error of eddy covariance (EC) measurements on the basis of two-tower approach during daytime. Two EC towers were placed on the grassland with different vegetation density near Gumi-weir. We calculated the random error using three different methods. The first method (M1) is two-tower method suggested by Hollinger and Richardson (2005) where random error is based on differences between simultaneous flux measurements from two towers in very similar environmental conditions. The second one (M2) is suggested by Kessomkiat et al. (2013), which is extended procedure to estimate random error of EC data for two towers in more heterogeneous environmental conditions. They removed systematic flux difference due to the energy balance deficit and evaporative fraction difference between two sites before determining the random error of fluxes using M1 method. Here, we introduce the third method (M3) where we additionally removed systematic flux difference due to available energy difference between two sites. Compared to M1 and M2 methods, application of M3 method results in more symmetric random error distribution. The magnitude of estimated random error is smallest when using M3 method because application of M3 method results in the least systematic flux difference between two sites among three methods. An empirical formula of random error is developed as a function of flux magnitude, wind speed and measurement height for use in single tower sites near Nakdong River. This study suggests that correcting available energy difference between two sites is also required for calculating the random error of EC data from two towers at heterogeneous site where vegetation density is low.
임윤규(Yun-Kyu Lim),김규랑(Kyu Rang Kim),조창범(Changbum Cho),김미진(Mijin Kim),최호성(Ho-seong Choi),한매자(Mae Ja Han),오인보(Inbo Oh),김백조(Baek-Jo Kim) 한국기상학회 2015 대기 Vol.25 No.2
Pollen is closely related to health issues such as allergenic rhinitis and asthma as well as intensifying atopic syndrome. Information on current and future spatio-temporal distribution of allergenic pollen is needed to address such issues. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) was utilized as a base modeling system to forecast pollen dispersal from oak trees. Pollen emission is one of the most important parts in the dispersal modeling system. Areal emission factor was determined from gridded areal fraction of oak trees, which was produced by the analysis of the tree type maps (1:5000) obtained from the Korea Forest Service. Daily total pollen production was estimated by a robust multiple regression model of weather conditions and pollen concentration. Hourly emission factor was determined from wind speed and friction velocity. Hourly pollen emission was then calculated by multiplying areal emission factor, daily total pollen production, and hourly emission factor. Forecast data from the KMA UM LDAPS (Korea Meteorological Administration Unified Model Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) was utilized as input. For the verification of the model, daily observed pollen concentration from 12 sites in Korea during the pollen season of 2014. Although the model showed a tendency of over-estimation in terms of the seasonal and daily mean concentrations, overall concentration was similar to the observation. Comparison at the hourly output showed distinctive delay of the peak hours by the model at the ‘Pocheon’ site. It was speculated that the constant release of hourly number of pollen in the modeling framework caused the delay.
김세원(Se-Won Kim),박길운(Gil-Un Park),조창범(Changbum Cho),이영곤(Young-Gon Lee),임덕빈(Deok-Bin Yim) 한국기상학회 2011 대기 Vol.21 No.3
The objective of this study was to assess the meteorological capability of Korea by comparing with that of the U.S. and Japan as of 2010. The research was conducted based on various indices and surveys, and quantified the results using the Gordon's scoring model. The index assessment used 11 items derived from 9 segments - surface observation, advanced observation and observations quality in the observation field; data assimilation, numerical model and infrastructure in the data processing field; forecast accuracy in the forecast field; climate prediction and climate change in the climate field - in this research, we classified the meteorological technology into four fields. In the survey assessment, another 10 items in addition to the above 11 ones (total 21 items) were used. In the field of climate, Korea was found to lag far behind the U.S. (96.5p) and Japan (90.5p) with 77.6 points out of 100, which is 18.9 and 12.9 points lower than them respectively. On the other hand, Korea showed the narrowest gap with Japan (95.3p) and the U.S. (94.2) in the forecasting field, recording 90.3 points. Particularly, in surface observation, infrastructure and forecast accuracy segment, Korea was on a par with the U.S. and Japan, boasting 100.5 percent compared to their counterparts. However, in advanced observation, data quality and climate change segment, Korea was only at the level of 81.5 percent compared to that of the U.S. and Japan. All in all, the technological prowess of Korea, scoring 84.6 points, stood at 89.7 percent of that of the U.S. (94.3p) and 91.9 percent of Japan (92.1p).