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전성흥(CHUN Sung-Heung) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2000 신아세아 Vol.7 No.4
This paper deals with the current regional situation in Taiwan and the achievements and problems arising from the transition from authoritarianism to democracy. Chen Shui-Bian's victory on March 18, 2000 to become Taiwan's president-elect, with 39 percent of the vote, has dramatically changed Taiwan's domestic political topology and ended fifty years of Kuomintang (KMT) rule on the island, placing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, Minjindang) behind the wheel for the first time. It might be "the greatest victory of Taiwan's Democracy movement", as mentioned by Chen, but now Taiwan is facing the risk of political meltdown. First, since Chen's election, Taiwan's economy has fallen into a slump. The stock market has plunged by more than 40%, a slide that represents a vote of "no confidence" in the President's abilities. Chen's approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen to less than 40%, from a high of 80%. His Premier, Tang Fei, resigned after less than half a year in office. Moreover, the delicate relationship with Beijing, which threatened war if Chen was elected, has stalled without any sign of improvement, while fundamentalists in the pro-independence DPP are criticizing him for ambiguous attitudes toward the "one-China" issue. And no one can control Vice President, Annette Lu, who pokes China in the eye at every opportunity. Above all, Chen faces political crisis in the wake of a decision to cancel construction of the country's fourth nuclear power plant which has been a pet KMT project. The KMT, which is the majority party with 115 seats in the 221-seat legislature, made a coalition of opposition parties including the People First Party (Qinmindang) and the New party (Xindang) - both established by breakaway members of the former KMT, and sees the power-plant issue as the last straw in a six month long chapter of the new government's mismanagement. Opposition lawmakers have threatened to recall Chen because they think his government violated the constitution by unilaterally deciding to scrap a partially built nuclear plant. Chen delivered a conciliatory speech on national television in which he apologized to the people and KMT chairman Lien Chan, one of his chief rivals. Recently he has been trying to show a more compromising attitude toward the criticism from the opposition troika, but whether Chen can overcome all the challenges and consolidate Taiwan's democratization, is still uncertain
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전성흥(Sung-Heung Chun) 한국정치학회 2002 한국정치학회보 Vol.35 No.4
이 글은 지난 약 20여 년간에 걸쳐 추진되어온 중국의 개혁개방을 평가하는 취지에서 전반적인 정치체제의 변화 양상과 추세를 거시적으로 파악하는 데 일차적인 목적을 두고 있다. 이를 위해 본문에서는 국가의 정치체제개혁, 시민사회의 저항운동, 그리고 해외의 체제변화 압력 등 3가지 변화의 주요 영역과 요인을 중심으로 개혁 이후 중국의 정치변화를 개관하고 있다. 이는 현재 중국 정치에서 나타나는 가장 특징적인 부분이 각기 상이한 영역에서 다양한 세력들이 기존 정치체제의 변화를 추동하고 있다는 사실인바, 거시적 변화에 대한 ‘회고와 전망’을 위해서는 이런 포괄성과 다양성을 이해하는 것이 무엇보다 중요하기 때문이다. 그리고 거시적 ‘개관’이 초래하는 추상성의 문제를 보완하는 동시에 최근의 현황과 추세를 특징적으로 잘 이해하기 위해 기층선거의 도입, 法輪功 문제, 天安門文件의 폭로 등 각 영역에서의 주요 현안에 대한 사례 분석을 병행하였다. 아울러 결론에서는 단기적 관점에서 중국 정치의 전환기적 변화 여부를 전망한다면, 무엇보다 지도부 내 균열이 주요 변수라는 견해를 피력하였다. This article primarily intends to review major trends and recent developments in China's political system with an eye on an overall assessment of its reform and open-door policy. Built on three major issue-areas and variables such as state political system ("top-down") reforms, social resistance ("bottom-up") movements, and external pressure on system change, it offers a brief overview of China's political changes in the reform era. It argues that the most distinct aspects of contemporary Chinese politics are reflected in major issue-areas where diverse yet potent forces push for changes in the existing political system. In order to have an adequate evaluation on the retrospect on and prospect of such macro changes it is necessary to understand its comprehensiveness and diversity. To compensate for the potential pitfalls attending such a broad overview a host of recent developments-with the individual events representing each issue-area-including the grassroots election, the Falungong, and Tiananmen papers are discussed as well. At the concluding section it is argued that the issue of leadership unity remains the most critical variable affecting the prospect for change in Chinese politics in the short term.
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