소기업·소상공인 신용보증의 대위변제 리스크 결정요인 분석

전계형 ( Gyeahyung Jeon ) 한국중소기업학회 2022 中小企業硏究 Vol.44 No.1

본 연구에서는 지역신용보증재단(이하 지역신보)에서 소기업· 소상공인을 대상으로 제공하는 신용보증의 채무불이행 위험과 보증 특성 및 보증 대상 업체의 특성 간 관계를 살펴보았다. 분석 결과, 보증 금액, 보증 유형, 업종, 개인신용등급(CB등급), 업력, 당기매출액, 매출액 증가율, 기보증액, 사업장 소유 여부가 대위변제 확률과 통계적으로 유의미한 관련이 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 경기변동에 대한 대위변제 확률의 민감도는 보증유형, 상환방식, 업종, 기업규모, 기업유형, 신용등급, 업력, 사업장 소유 여부 등에 따라 차이가 존재하였다. This paper examined the relationship between the default risk of loans guaranteed by Local Credit Guarantee Foundation(hearafter LCGF), and the characteristics of the guarantee/beneficiary. We analysed through logistic model and hazard model using individual-level data on credit guarantees provided by LCGF from 2006 to 2015. As a result, it was confirmed that the amount of guarantee, type of guarantee, type of business, personal credit rating (CB grade), firm age, current sales, sales growth rate, and whether business site is owned were statistically significantly related to the probability of subrogation. As a result of examining the effect of the GRDP growth rate on the probability of subrogation, it was confirmed that there was a significant relationship on average. Sensitivity to economic fluctuations differed depending on guarantee type, repayment method, industry type, company size, company type, credit rating, firm age, and whether a business site is owned. Considering the results of this study, LCGF needs to develop a system to improve the credit evaluation system by guarantee characteristics and borrower characteristics, and also to select businesses that need intensive management according to the economic situation.

중첩세대모형을 활용한 소득세, 출산지원 정책, 자녀 소득에 비례한 연금정책 조합의 효과 분석

전계형 ( Gyeahyung Jeon ) 한국재정정책학회 2021 財政政策論集 Vol.23 No.4

This study presents an overlapping generations model to analyze decisions such as parents’ childbirth, education expenditure and lifetime consumption and analyzes the effects of the government’s childbirth, education support, and pension policy combination on population growth rate, high-income ratio, and intergenerational income mobility. Under the Pay-as-you-go (hereinafter referred to as PAYG) pension policy, parents’ choice of childbirth and education expenditure for their children have external effects. In addition, choices in each parent’s childbirth and education expenditure change the long-term demographic structure, when there is heterogeneity in the child’s educational efficiency, apart from the PAYG pension. Under these two types of externalities, government policy intervention is needed to induce parents’ choice to be the social choice. If the government cannot observe parents’ educational expenditures on their children, the government can instead provide parents with incentives to invest in their children by designing the pension they will receive to reflect their children’s total income. However, if parents have a risk aversion tendency, pension policies proportional to uncertain children’s income have a weaker effect of providing incentives to make investments in the optimal direction, than pension policies proportional to solid educational expenditures. In addition, if the implicit contract between parents and children is related to high fertility rates and low educational expenditures in the past traditional society, pension policies proportional to their total income can be expected to have similar effects. Accordingly, when implementing a pension policy proportional to the total income of children, there is a need to additionally adjust parents’ investment choices for children through childbirth policies so that they can be appropriately distributed to childbirth and education expenditures.

소상공인 신용보증의 효과 분석

김홍기 ( Hongkee Kim ),전계형 ( Gyeahyung Jeon ),한상범 ( Sang Buhm Hahn ) 한국재정정책학회 2020 財政政策論集 Vol.22 No.3

The purpose of this study is to measure the impact of credit guarantees provided by the Regional Credit Guarantee Foundation on sales, employment and the local economy. Small businesses and self-employed are not easy to secure the funds, because of asymmetric information and deficiency in physical collateral. Accordingly, the Regional Credit Guarantee Foundation reduces the financial gap by providing credit guarantees to small businesses and self-employed. On the other hand, there are arguments that credit guarantee might lead to problems of moral hazard or the weakening of financial institutions' risk management capabilities. This study analyzes the impact of credit guarantees on beneficiary's sales and employment growth through micro-econometric methods and the impact on the economic growth, unemployment rates and employment rates through macro-econometric methods. The micro-econometric results show that beneficiaries of the credit guarantees have a sales increase of about ￦34.68 million more than non-beneficiary companies. However, we cannot find the significant effects on number of employees. The macro-econometric analysis confirms that the increase in credit guarantee balances leads to immediate and significant increase in national income(GDP) but not a significant change in unemployment rates. The results of the panel VAR analysis using 16 regional panel data show that an increase in credit guarantee balances leads to GRDP and employment, decrease in unemployment over two years.

소상공인 신용보증의 수요예측

김홍기(Hongkee Kim),전계형(Gyeahyung Jeon),한상범(Sang Buhm Hahn) 한국경제발전학회 2021 經濟發展硏究 Vol.27 No.1

본 연구는 우리나라 소상공인에 대한 신용보증 수요를 예측하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 먼저 지역신용보증재단의 소상공인 보증잔액 자료를 사용하여 ARDL-ECM 모형을 추정하고 이를 이용해 보증규모(보증잔액)의 예측을 수행한다. 다음 단계로 소상공인의 신용대출 필요액과 실제 신용보증금액 간의 갭을 잠재적 신용보증 수요 갭으로 파악하고 이 갭을 보증규모 예측값에 반영하는 방식으로 잠재적 신용보증 수요를 예측한다. 즉, 신용보증잔액, 명목 GDP, 경기선행지수, 기간스프레드 등 외생적 설명변수들에 대한 베이스라인 예측전제를 바탕으로, 변수들 간의 장기적 균형관계에 기반한 신용보증 규모를 먼저 예측하고, 설문조사에서 얻어진 신용보증과 신용수요 간의 갭이 1.42배임을 감안하여 이를 반영한 잠재적 보증수요를 예측하였다. 그 결과 보증잔액에 입각한 소상공인 신용보증수요는 2022년의 경우에는 40.1조 ∼ 45조원, 2023년에는 41.9조 ∼ 49.3조에 이르는 것으로 추정되고 있다. 소상공인의 보증수요가 매우 큰 것으로 예측되는 만큼 정부는 소상공인에 대한 적극적인 보증공급정책을 추진할 필요가 있을 것이다. This study predicts the demand for credit guarantees for small business, using the ARDL-ECM model. Based on the baseline prediction of exogenous explanatory variables such as outstanding credit guarantee, nominal GDP, leading economic indicator, and interest term spread, the size of the credit guarantee is predicted using the long-term equilibrium relationship. Taking the ratio of demand for credit guarantee to actual credit guarantee(1.42) into consideration, we predicted the potential demand for guarantees. As a result, the demand for small business owners guarantees based on the guarantee balance is estimated to reach 40.1 trillion won to 45 trillion won in 2022 and 41.9 trillion to 49.3 trillion won in 2023. As the demand for guarantees by small business owners is predicted to be very large, the government will need to pursue an active guarantee supply policy to small business owners.

소상공인 신용보증의 리스크 분석 - 신용등급별 경기변동의 영향을 중심으로 -

박의환 ( Euihwan Park ),김홍기 ( Hongkee Kim ),전계형 ( Gyeahyung Jeon ) 한국재정정책학회 2022 財政政策論集 Vol.24 No.2

This study analyzes the credit guarantee data of the Local Credit Guarantee Foundation to analyze the degree of heterogeneity of each credit rating in the effect of economic growth rate on credit risk. The authors use the ARDL-ECM model to analyze the relationship between the overall subrogation rate of the local credit guarantee foundation and the economic growth rate, and based on this, the Credit Portfolio View(CPV) model is used to calculate the transition matrix for each credit rating of the guaranteed borrowers. Based on this, the degree of change in the subrogation rate by credit rating was calculated through a simulation when the economic growth rate increased or decreased by 1%p, and in addition, the subrogation rate for each credit rating of guaranteed borrowers was predicted from 2022 to 2024. It was confirmed that the subrogation rate for each credit rating responds more sensitively to economic growth rate as the credit rating is lower, in particular, the 7-10, which correspond to low credit ratings, responded sensitively. In addition, as a result of the forecast for 2022-2024, the subrogation rate generally rises until 2023, and then declines slightly in 2024. The above results suggest that it is necessary to prepare for the increase in credit risk of the Local Credit Guarantee Foundation from 2022 to 2023, and in particular, it is necessary to manage credit risk for borrowers with low credit guarantees.