러시아-우크라이나 전쟁과 국제질서의 변화

장세호,Jang, Seho 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 Analyses & alternatives Vol.6 No.2

러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 미국과 러시아, 러시아와 우크라이나, 우크라이나 정부군과 반군 간 '3층위 복합전'이다. 첫째, 동 전쟁은 자유주의국제질서를 유지·강화하려는 서구 세력권과 새로운 대안질서를 추구하는 중러 세력권이 지정학적 단층대인 우크라이나에서 충돌함으로써 발생한 현상이다. 둘째, 이번 전쟁은 나토의 지속적 확장과 러시아의 대응이라는 '연쇄 반응'(chain reaction) 게임에 의한 전형적인 '안보 딜레마' 현상의 결과이다. 셋째, 러-우 전쟁은 우크라이나의 돈바스에 대한 군사적 수복을 저지하기 위한 러시아의 군사력 투사로 인해 발생했다. 그동안 미국을 위시한 서구 세계는 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 예상 밖의 결속력을 보여주었다. 그러나 중국을 비롯한 비서구 세계가 러시아에 대한 규탄과 제재에 동참하지 않고 있어 눈길을 끈다. 이번 전쟁은 냉전 종식 이후 형성되어 작동하고 있는 현 국제질서의 존립과 변화 유무의 중요한 분기점이 될 것이다. 전쟁의 전개 양상과 종결 방식에 따라 현 국제질서의 유지·복원, 수정·변경, 종식·전환의 방향이 결정될 가능성이 크며, 대체로 그동안의 전황을 고려해볼 때 두 번째 방향으로 나아갈 가능성이 크다. The Russia-Ukraine War was a "three-layer compounded war" between the US and Russia, Russia and Ukraine, and Ukrainian government forces and rebels. First, the war is a phenomenon that occurred when the western sphere of influence seeking to maintain and strengthen the liberal international order and the Sino-Russian sphere of influence seeking a new alternative order collided in Ukraine, a geopolitical fault zone. Second, this war is the result of a typical 'security dilemma' phenomenon caused by the 'chain reaction' game of NATO's continuous expansion and Russia's response. Third, the Russia-Ukraine war was caused by the Russian military projection to prevent the military restoration of Donbas region by Ukraine. Until now, the Western world, led by the US, showed unexpected solidarity after the war despite subtle differences in positions. However, the non-Western world, including China, is not participating in the condemnation and sanctions against Russia. This war will be an important turning point in the existence and change of the current international order that has been formed and is operating since the end of the Cold War. The direction of maintenance/restoration, revision/change, and end/transformation of the current international order is highly likely to be determined depending on the development pattern and method of ending the war.

러시아 지방선거의 운영 메커니즘과 정치적 함의

장세호(JANG SE HO) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 2013 슬라브학보 Vol.28 No.2

This study analyses the dynamics and operating mechanism in russian regional elections and at the same time derives political implications in cases of 2011-2012. The mechanism of russian regional elections can be defined as ‘a system of limited party competition’ established in Putin"s 1-2 terms. In this article the author argues that while regional elections in March 2011 are the case with a crisis signal of russian ‘managed democracy,’ regional elections in October 2012 are the case with a maximization of operating the mechanism mentioned earlier. In addition, two elections give some important political implications in the policy directions of the new government, the limits of partial institution reform in the period of Medvedev, and the future political prospects.

2008~2014년 러시아 선거제도 변화 연구

장세호(JANG SE HO) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 2014 슬라브학보 Vol.29 No.3

The purpose of this study is to examine main contents of the change of Russian electoral system in 2008-2014, to analyze major causes which led to this change. At this time Russian electoral system has experienced legal changes of Constitution, the law on elections, and the law on political parties in 7 times. Main results of analysis are as follows. First, the most important cause of the institutional reform in this period is the change of voters political preference. Second, the internal and external pressure for deepening democracy is another major cause, and has used as a good reason for the institutional change. Third, the current ruling class of Russia strategically has considered above two factors and has determined the rage of reform in the existing incentive structure. Forth, the process of the institutional change has been implemented through the hegemonic form in which the current ruling class"s strategic intention can be accepted one-sidedly.

디젤분무의 분열길이 측정에 관한 연구

장세호(S. H. Jang),라진홍(J. H. Ra) 한국동력기계공학회 1999 동력시스템공학회지 Vol.3 No.3

체제전환기 러시아연방공산당의 정치적 위상 변화에 대한 소고: 민족주의 담론을 중심으로

장세호 ( Se Ho Jang ) 朝鮮大學校 統一問題硏究所 2011 統一 問題 硏究 Vol.26 No.2

소련 붕괴 후 신생 러시아 사회 내에 만연한 전체주의적 중앙집권체제에 대한 병적인 거부 환경 속에서도, 소련의 전형적 당-국가 체제에서 중핵적 위치를 차지했던 ‘소련공산당(КПСС)’의 후신인 ‘러시아연방공산당(КПРФ)’은 여전히 자신의 질긴 생명력을 증명하고 있다. 본 논문은 “무엇이 러시아연방공산당의 조직적 생존과 대중적 지지의 유지를 가능케 했는가?”, 그리고 “현재 이들이 향유하고 있는 정치적 위상은 지속 가능한 것인가?”에 대한 문제의식의 해결을 목적으로 한다. 1993년부터 2007년까지 신생 러시아 내에서의 선거과정 분석을 통해, 90년대 중반 공산당의 화려한 재기는 무엇보다 ‘공산애국주의(коммунопатриотизм)’로 대변되는 러시아 좌익진영의 민족주의에 바탕을 둔 우향(右向) 기동에서 그 주요 원인을 찾을 수 있겠다. 그리고 2000년대 초반 공산당의 급속한 지지율 저하는, 민족주의 담론의 활용에 상대적으로 소극적이던 집권세력이 푸틴의 등장 이후 적극적으로 자신의 통치담론으로 민족·애국주의를 편입시킴으로써 발생한 민족주의 담론 경쟁의 패배에서 비롯된 것이라 할 수 있다. 탈소비에트 러시아 정치공간 내에서 유일한 실질 야당으로 존재하는 러시아연방공산당은 자신의 생존과 영향력 증대를 위해 당분간 민족주의적 프로그램을 유지하면서도, 본연의 사회주의적 가치를 강화하는 방향으로 나아갈 것으로 보인다. The collapse of the Soviet Union created a feeling of denial in regards to the totalitarian centralized system in Russian society. Yet the Communist party of the Russian Federation(CPRF), the successor of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union(CPSU) that had occupied the key position in the Soviet party-state system, still has proved themselves capable of competing with other larger parties. In this paper, following questions will be addressed. What makes the Russian Federation Communist Party`s organizational survival and popular support? Additionally, is their current political status sustainable? Through an analysis of the 1993 to 2007 electoral process, the Communist party`s spectacular resurgence in the mid-90s can be explained by the right turn of Russian leftists based on ``communo-patriotism``. However Putin`s advent, the ruling elite, who had been relatively passive to take advantage of some nationalist discourses, positively included nationalism to their governance discourse. The rapid decrease of the Communist party in the early 2000s was derived from their defeat in the nationalist discourse competition with the ruling elite. The Communist party of the Russian Federation has existed as an real opposition party in post-Soviet political system of Russia. In order to survive and build their political influence, the Communist party of the Russian Federation will not only keep a nationalist program, but also reinforce various traditional socialist values.

2018년 러시아 대통령 선거 평가: 푸틴의 압승 원인을 중심으로

장세호 ( Seho Jang ) 한국외국어대학교 러시아연구소 2018 슬라브연구 Vol.34 No.3

This study aims at a comprehensive analysis of the Russian presidential election on March 18, 2018. In particular, main focus of argument is on analyzing the factors for Putin's overwhelming victory. In this election, the Kremlin has set three goals: high rate of vote, convincing turnout, and clean election process, all of which are considered to have been achieved smoothly. Putin was elected president with 76.69% of the vote, the highest record in the history of contemporary Russian presidential elections. Putin's overwhelming victory is analyzed to have played a major role in the Russian people's demands for gradual reform in social stability and, most importantly, demands for the powerful leader in the deepening geopolitical crisis. The presidential election provided a powerful boost to lead the fourth term of Putin. But Russian voters are passive supporters of Putin from a strategic point of view, and they can recall their support at any time. When the Russian authorities clearly understand this, positive achievement of Putin's fourth term can be maximized.

푸틴 3기 내각·대통령행정실 인적 구성의 특징과 함의

장세호(JANG SE HO) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 2013 슬라브학보 Vol.28 No.4

This paper analyses the features, social backgrounds, and implications in the formation of the executive elite of Putin’s 3 term. This study takes two analytical strategies, based on the positional method. First, Author comprehensively tries to analyze the process of formation and replacement of high-level officials in the Cabinet and the Presidential Executive Office, focusing on the comparison with previous organs of the Executive power. Second, Author tries to analyze their social backgrounds, setting the sex, age, scholastic achievement, career, birthplace as variables. Analytical results show that the rate of men, people from moscow and Central Federal district, Ph.D holders, social science majors, and the rate of entrepreneurs, professors, politicians were relatively high. And It was characteristic that the Cabinet filled by young officials, comparing to the Presidential Executive Office. In this article, Author evaluates the establishment of system with Putin’s close confidants, the formation of balanced, professional, practical Cabinet, the combination of strong Presidential Executive Office and working-level Cabinet as key features and implications in the high-level officials appointments. At last, It is argued that a crack in the control-mechanism of russian political elite, an absence of long term strategy in personnel appointments, a weak basis of human resources, weakened position of Medvedev as important features and implications in the process of some government officials replacement.

푸틴 3기 권력엘리트의 충원: 추이와 특성

장세호 ( Seho Jang ) 아시아문화학술원 2018 인문사회 21 Vol.9 No.4

본 연구는 러시아 권력엘리트의 충원·양성 과정의 실태를 파악하고, 이러한 권력엘리트 재생산 체계의 등장 원인과 특성, 그리고 그 성과와 한계 분석을 목적으로 한다. 러시아에서는 효율적 엘리트 재생산 체계가 파괴됨으로써 개인적 인맥관계에 의존한 엘리트 충원이 이뤄져왔다. 이러한 문제점을 극복하기 위해 현재 크렘린은 소련 노멘클라투라 체제의 복원과 개선을 시도하고 있다. 그들은 현 체제와 국가노선에 충실한 차세대 엘리트를 육성함으로써 현 엘리트 체제의 내구성을 제고하는 데 관심을 집중하고 있다. 하지만, 이 같은 시도에도 불구하고 다원성과 사회적 합의의 부재 등의 문제에 대한 우려가 제기된다. This study aims to identify the reality of the recruitment and training process of the power elite and to analyze the causes and characteristics of the emergence of this power elite reproduction system and its achievements and limitations in Russia. In Russia, the efficient elite reproduction system has been destroyed, and the elite recruitment has been carried out depending on personal connections. To overcome these problems, the Kremlin is currently attempting to restore and improve the Soviet “Nomenklatura” system. They are focusing on enhancing the durability of the current elite system by nurturing the next generation of elite that is faithful to the current system and the national policy line. Nevertheless, there are some concerns about problems such as the lack of plurality and social consensus.

2021년 러시아 국가두마 의원 선거 평가 : 민심의 왜곡과 여당의 과대대표

장세호(JANG, Seho) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 2021 슬라브학보 Vol.36 No.4

The eighth State Duma election (hereinafter referred to as the general election) was held in Russia for three days from September 17 to 19. The general election was the last federal level election to be held in Putin"s fourth term, and it was the biggest political event in Russia this year. In the early stages of the election process, prospects for the general election of the ruling party were not very bright due to various negative factors, such as weakening of the “Crime Consensus”, public dissatisfaction with the pension reform, a decline in the quality of life due to a prolonged economic recession, and increased fatigue over the current system. However, United Russia won 126 seats with 49.82% of the proportional votes, which is nearly half of the total, and 198 seats in the single-member constituency votes, winning a total of 324 seats that allow for constitutional amendment independently. The key factors behind these results were the electoral system that was thoroughly favorable to the ruling party, the pressure on the Kremlin"s intense opposition, the mobilization of pro-government voters using administrative power, and active support from Putin. However, the ruling party"s landslide victory was the result of unfair use of administrative and financial power and the “sophisticated” distortion of public opinion. Therefore, this year"s general election will be a heavy burden for the current system, and as long as this process continues and repeats, it will be difficult to expect a desirable future for Russia.

직접분사식 소형 디젤엔진의 배기배출물에 대한 인자분석적 고찰

장세호(Se-Ho JANG),김영식(Yeong-Sik KIM) 한국수산해양교육학회 2017 水産海洋敎育硏究 Vol.29 No.2

This study analyzed the effect of four control factors, RPM, load, EGR rate and cooling water temperature on the exhaust emissions of the small DI diesel engine. The amount of NOx and smoke emissions were measured through experiments for three levels of four control factors according to orthogonal array table, and the effect of four factors on NOx and smoke emissions was analyzed quantitatively. The main results obtained in this study are summarized as follows: 1. RPM, load and EGR rate have a great influence on NOx and smoke emissions, and the effect of cooling water temperature is negligible. 2. As RPM and load increases NOx emission increases and decreases sharply as the EGR rate increases. 3. Smoke emission decreases or increases randomly according to RPM and load, but increases sharply in proportion to the EGR rate. 4. EGR rate has the greatest effect on NOx and smoke emissions by more than 60% of contribution to variance, especially in the case of NOx emission, EGR rate represents a significant result even under the confidence level of 99% on ANOVA.