「사정변경의 원칙」 적용론 - 대상판결: 대법원 2021. 6. 30. 선고 2019다276338 판결 -

장보은(Chang, Bo-Eun) 한국민사법학회 2021 民事法學 Vol.97 No.-

사정변경의 원칙은 신의칙에 근거한 계약법상 법리로, 계약준수의 원칙에 대한 예외로 이해된다. 그동안 우리 법원은 법리로서 사정변경의 원칙이 인정된다는 것을 분명히 하면서도, 실제 사안에서 사정변경을 이유로 계약의 해제 또는 해지를 인정하는 데에는 매우 인색하였다. 그런데 지난 해 대법원에서는 사정변경의 원칙을 이유로 임대차계약의 해지를 인정한 바 있고, 대상판결도 같은 취지로 계약의 해지를 인정하였다. 이러한 경향은 하급심으로도 이어지고 있는바, 이러한 일련의 판결을 통해 사정변경의 원칙이 더 이상 이론적인 법리에 불과한 것이 아니라 실천적인 규범이라는 점을 확인할 수 있다. 사정변경의 원칙은 기술의 발전이나 전염병의 발생 등으로 예상하기 어려운 현대 사회에서 더 많은 역할을 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 사정변경의 원칙을 적용하면, 계약을 그대로 이행하여야 한다거나 불능이 되었으므로 이에 대한 책임을 전부 면한다고 하는 것에 비하여, 다양한 방식의 문제 해결이 가능할 것이다. 다만, 급변하는 환경에 시의적으로 대응하기 위해서는, 한편으로는 신의칙에서 근거하는 만큼 유연성을 유지하면서, 다른 한 편으로는 실제로 이 원칙이 문제를 해결하는 실효성을 가질 수 있도록 그 요건과 효과를 더욱 구체화할 필요가 있다. 이 글에서는 대상판결을 계기로, 사정변경의 원칙과 인접한 법적 개념들을 구별함으로써 사정변경의 원칙이 고려될 수 있는 경우를 분명히 하고, 사정변경의 원칙을 적용하는 경우 그 요건과 효과와 관련하여 관련된 쟁점들을 두루 살펴보고자 하였다. 향후 사정변경의 원칙과 관련하여, 구체적인 사건에의 적용을 염두에 둔 보다 실질적인 논의가 계속되기를 기대한다. The doctrine of change of circumstances is a legal doctrine under the contract law based on the principle of good faith. It is recognized as an exception to the principle of contract compliance (Pacta Sunt Servanda). In the meantime, while the Supreme Court has made it clear that the “doctrine of change of circumstances” is recognized as a legal principle, but in actual cases, it has been very stingy in accepting the termination of a contract on the grounds of change of circumstances. However, in a case decided in 2020, it reached conclusion of the termination of a contract in a specific case in accordance with this doctrine. The Supreme Court Decision, 2019da276338 rendered on June 30, 2021, also admitted the termination of a contract based upon the change of circumstances. Now it could be faily mentioned that the principle of change of circumstances is no longer just a theoretical legal declaration, but a practical norm. In principle the contract must be fulfilled even if there has been some change, because that was the parties’ intention. However, it could be a different story if the situation occurred was not covered and completely unexpected in the contract. We cannot predicate that the parties’ intention was to force the contract to be complied with in its original form even if it seemed excessively onerous. In these exceptional circumstances, the change of circumstances doctrine will be considered. The change of circumstances may also suggest more flexible and reasonable solutions, other than the both ends of termination of the contract as a whole or maintenance of the original contract as it is. In our society where things are changing rapidly and unpredictably, the doctrine may play a role in solving problems. I order to respond in a timely manner to the rapidly changing environment in the future society, while it should be flexible to cover various changes as a general doctrine, it needs to further refine the doctrine so that it can be effective in solving problems in practice.

조직변화 유형과 Appreciative Inquiry(AI) 기반 조직변화모델에 관한 연구

장석인 ( Sug-in Chang ) KNU기업경영연구소 2021 기업경영리뷰 Vol.12 No.3

Today’s business environment faces many challenges due to rapid changes in knowledge and technology than in the past. Many companies are choosing the team system as an organizational structure that enables maximiza-tion of organizational efficiency. For organizations in the 21st century that are affected by changes and situations that are difficult to solve with existing tools or methods, the model based on deficit is not suitable as an organiza-tion development method mainly used in the industrialization era. As an alternative to this, today’s companies are paying attention to the organizational change model of Ap-preciative Inquiry (AI) called positive search or positive revolution. Organizational Change Model based on Ap-preciative Inquiry is a means to improve the present organization and envision a future vision. This model is an approach that asks members of the organization questions that remind them of their best experiences within the organization, success stories, and positive outcomes. The purpose of this study is to explore organizational change and the Organizational Change Model based on Appreciative Inquiry. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, first, the types of organizational change and organizational change models are to be investigated. Second, the principle and process of the Appreciative In-quiry Model will be reviewed, and finally, research results and implications will be drawn.

중국의 사회구조변화와 여성: 소강사회건설과 여성의 정치 사회참여

장공자 ( Gong Ja Chang ) 국제지역학회 2005 국제지역연구 Vol.9 No.2

중국은 16전대에서 전면적으로 소강사회를 건설하고 중국특색의 사회주의의 새로운 국면을 열자 라는 정치보고를 통해 향후 20년간 국내총생산의 4배 증가를 실현시키고 1인당 국민소득을 3000달러에 달하게 하여 전면적인 소강사회를 건설할 것이라는 국가목표를 제시했다. 그리고 이어 10전인대를 통해 60대 전후의 제4세대 지도부로 세대교체를 마무리했다. 중국의 개혁 개방은 정치, 경제, 사회뿐 아니라, 생활방식과 가치관에 이르기까지 여러 측면에서 기존의 틀을 크게 변화시켜 사회구성원들에게 자유로운 활동의 공간을 열어주었다. 특히 계획경제체제에서 시장경제체제로 전환됨에 따라 이러한 변동과 변화는 중국사회의 계층구조의 급격한 변화를 초래했다. 이러한 변화를 결정하는 것은 단일 정치적인 요소가 아니라, 경제적인 요소 즉 소득수준과 사회적 요소라 하겠다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 이러한 구조 속에서 여성들은 어떤 사회적 신분변화를 보이게 되었는지, 그리고 직업유동과 지역유동, 소득격차 등이 여성들에게 어떤 변화를 주었으며 여성들의 정치사회참여는 어떻게 이뤄지고 있고 향후 부각되는 문제점은 무엇인지 규명해 보고자 한다. The reform and opening of China has altered the traditional paradigm in many aspects, not only politics, economy, and society but also life style and value system. This change allowed its people a living capacity with more freedom. The change from a controlled economy to a free market system has caused drastic change in the status and class of the Chinese people. This is not solely caused by political factors but economic factors, such as difference in income, and social factors as well. Therefore, in this paper, the change in female status due to this change in society will be observed. Also, the influence that vocational and regional mobility and income difference had on females will be inquired. Lastly, I will shed light on how females are participating in society and politics and focus on the problems that these change are causing.

한국사상(韓國思想)사학(史學) : 정쟁을 통해 본 유소와 성균관 장의의 기능

장재천 ( Jae Cheon Chang ) 한국사상문화학회 2013 韓國思想과 文化 Vol.70 No.-

조선시대에 성균관에서는 재학 중인 유생들에게 자치기구인 재회(齋會)라는 학생회가 있었으며, 이들을 대표하는 장의(掌議)라는 직책이 있었다. 장의의 선출은 총학생회의 회의를 통해서 하였는데, 주로 생원들이 거재하는 동재의 유생들을 대표하는 동재장의와 주로 진사들이 거재하는 서재의 유생들을 대표하는 서재장의 등 독단적인 운영을 막기 위해서 복수제로 2명을 선출하였다. 성균관 장의의 교체는 춘추석전을 기준으로 임기 기한을 삼았으며, 특별한 상황에 따라 국왕의 특별한 교지가 있게 되면 즉시 교체하였다. 그런데 성균관 장의는 성균관 유생들뿐만이 아니라 서울의 4학 유생들, 그리고 전국 각지의 유생들을 대표하는 것으로서 매우 막중하고 영광스러운 위치였다. 그러나 항상 주목을 받는 영광스러운 위치였기 때문에 오히려 여러 가지 수난도 많이 당하였다. 아직 벼슬이 없는 전국 모든 유생들의 상소는 반드시 성균관 장의의 승인을 거쳐서 승정원에 올라가야 했기 때문에 그 기능을 잘못 사용하거나 남용하였을 때는 벌을 받거나 정거를 당하였으며, 조정대신이나 국왕과 대립할 경우에도 많은 경우 정거를 당하거나 유배를 당하거나 서인으로 전락 당하였고, 원점을 삭점 당해 과거응시에 불리한 처분도 받았다. 또한 특권을 부여 받아 단독으로 사용하는 방인 장의방에서 내쫓기기도 하였고, 절도(絶島) 즉 육지에서 멀리 떨어진 외딴 섬으로 유배를 가는 경우도 있었으며, 심한 경우는 영거(永擧)를 당하거나 유적(儒籍)에서 이름이 삭적 당하는 치욕스러운 경우까지도 있었다. 그러므로 성균관 장의의 수난은 그만큼 학생으로서의 유생들의 지위가 약화되거나 성균관 교육이 대체로 부실해지거나 정쟁으로 인하여 파당싸움이 심해질수록 더 많은 수난을 당하게 되었던 것이라고 할 수 있다. In the Joseon Dynasty, Sungkyunkwan enrolled students were autonomous organizations, student council, student body president, a position that represent them were through a meeting of the student body, was elected student body president of two people in order to prevent the operation of dogmatic. Replace the chairman of the Student Center, based on the Spring and Autumn Sukjun(釋奠), If you have special circumstances, according to the king``s command and were replaced immediately. Sungkyunkwan representatives Sungkyunkwan students as well as chairman of the glorious position was very heavy and is representative of students in Hanyang, and students across the country. Always receives attention because it was a glorious position, however, but rather several Passion Party. Receives recognition Sungkyunkwan student body president, the government official does not have the national appeal of all larvae Seungjeongwon(承政院) to go up because incorrect use or abuse of its powers, when punished or stops per exam, and government officials and the king and confrontation in many cases, even if you want to regress to the average person stops per exam or go to exile origin, were mowed per exam was unfavorable disposition. In severe cases, also was put out of machines and how to use the privilege granted solely an isolated island, far away from the land, if you are going into exile, lifelong exam larvae of his name deleted from the list, or being able if there were. SungKyunKwan student body president, passion, much weakened or status as a student, Sungkyunkwan education or stale due to partisan politics partisanship has been put to the sufferings, the more severe.

세 가지 표징(출 4:1-9)에 대한 시청각적 연구

장석정(Sok-Chung Chang) 연세대학교 신과대학(연합신학대학원) 2013 신학논단 Vol.71 No.-

?;?;Exodus 4:1-9 is a first example of Moses' protest concerning Israel's disbelief and YHWH's signs to assure him Israel's belief. Moses is worrying that Israel will not believe him and say YHWH does not appear to him. These worries are about Moses' delivering the words of YHWH to Israel. They include the aural elements and the visual elements together. In his protest, Moses actually asked YHWH to give him a visual evidence that could make Israel believe in his words.<br/> ?;?;In YHWH's response to Moses' protest, three sings were given. First, the staff changed into a snake. This sign shows 100% of the visual elements. The second sign was to make his hand infected with a skin disease. However, Moses had to put his hand into his bosom, so he could not see the process of change. That is why this sign has only 50% of the visual elements. The last sign was told to Moses and he could not experience it because he had to take some water from the Nile and pour it upon the land. It is supposed to change into blood. He will be able to try it when he actually goes to Egypt. So this third sign shows 0% of the visual elements. What these three signs mean is that the aural elements are more important than the visual elements. Moses has to deliver the words of YHWH through his mouth, that is, the aural elements.<br/> ?;?;Also the identity of ‘they’ in the protest of Moses in 4:1 has to reveal because the text does not say anything about them. Traditionally, the scholars have thought that ‘they’ are ‘the people of Israel.’ However, this study shows that not only the people of Israel but also the king of Egypt could be included in the category of ‘they.’ In order to realize Exodus, Israel had to get a permission from the Egyptian king. Moses needed to have signs to persuade him to make Exodus happen. The awkward connection between v. 8 and v. 9 proves that the third sign was prepared for the king of Egypt. As the three signs deliberately shows the importance of the words, here again the text indicates that only aural elements could make the people of Israel and the king of Egypt believe what Moses said in the name of YHWH. ?;?;Exodus 4:1-9 is a first example of Moses' protest concerning Israel's disbelief and YHWH's signs to assure him Israel's belief. Moses is worrying that Israel will not believe him and say YHWH does not appear to him. These worries are about Moses' delivering the words of YHWH to Israel. They include the aural elements and the visual elements together. In his protest, Moses actually asked YHWH to give him a visual evidence that could make Israel believe in his words.<br/> ?;?;In YHWH's response to Moses' protest, three sings were given. First, the staff changed into a snake. This sign shows 100% of the visual elements. The second sign was to make his hand infected with a skin disease. However, Moses had to put his hand into his bosom, so he could not see the process of change. That is why this sign has only 50% of the visual elements. The last sign was told to Moses and he could not experience it because he had to take some water from the Nile and pour it upon the land. It is supposed to change into blood. He will be able to try it when he actually goes to Egypt. So this third sign shows 0% of the visual elements. What these three signs mean is that the aural elements are more important than the visual elements. Moses has to deliver the words of YHWH through his mouth, that is, the aural elements.<br/> ?;?;Also the identity of ‘they’ in the protest of Moses in 4:1 has to reveal because the text does not say anything about them. Traditionally, the scholars have thought that ‘they’ are ‘the people of Israel.’ However, this study shows that not only the people of Israel but also the king of Egypt could be included in the category of ‘they.’ In order to realize Exodus, Israel had to get a permission from the Egyptian king. Moses needed to have signs to persuade him to make Exodus happen. The awkward connection between v. 8 and v. 9 proves that the third sign was prepared for the king of Egypt. As the three signs deliberately shows the importance of the words, here again the text indicates that only aural elements could make the people of Israel and the king of Egypt believe what Moses said in the name of YHWH.

이야기의 서사적 변이 연구

장영창(Jang, Young-Chang) 우리문학회 2018 우리文學硏究 Vol.0 No.59

이 논문은 이야기가 ‘소박한 모티프’에서 시작하여, ‘단순한 이야기’로 진행되다가, 점차 ‘변이된 이야기’로 변화한다는 가정을 바탕으로 하여, 서사의 변이를 살펴보았다. 구체적으로, 쌀이 무한정 나왔으면 좋겠다는 ‘소박한 모티프’에서 시작하여, 〈쌀바위〉전설의 ‘단순한 이야기’로 변모한 사례 1과 예쁜 각시와 행복하게 살아 보고 싶다는 ‘소박한 소망’에서 ‘다양한 서사의 이야기’로 변모한 〈우렁각시〉 설화의 사례 2를 중심으로 서사변이의 원리를 살펴보았다. 2장에서는 60여 편의 〈쌀바위〉 전설 각 편의 이야기를 중심으로, 이야기의 변이를 유발하는 주요소를 ‘① 주요 인물 ② 이야기의 배경 공간 ③ 쌀이 나오는 양 ④ 욕심을 내는 이유 ⑤ 많이 나오게 하는 수단과 방법 ⑥ 행위의 결과 ⑦ 전승명’을 중심으로 연구하였다. 그리하여 어느 부분에서 변이가 많이 생기고, 왜 그러한지 원인을 살펴보았다. 그리고 41편의 〈우렁각시〉 설화를 대상으로 ‘① 만나는 장소 ② 보관 장소 ③ 변신 ④ 방해자의 변이 요소’를 살펴보았다. 또한 〈우렁각시〉 설화는 단순한 소재의 변이 보다는 ‘시련-극복-죽음’이라는 분기점에 의해, 각 편이 ‘①원형’에서 ‘⑪동반 죽음형’으로 서사가 유형화 되는 것을 분석하였다. 3장에서는 서사 변이의 담화 유형과 변이의 의미를 살펴보았다. 〈여자농부 아랑이〉는 〈쌀바위〉 전설보다 내용의 변화가 많다. ‘등장인물 수의 확대, 액자구성으로의 변이, 도구의 효율성과 경제적 생산성 추구’ 등의 변화를 통해, 서사의 변화를 견인하고 있다. 그리고 〈우렁각시〉 설화 41편은 각 편의 이야기 분기점, 즉 ‘시련의 있고 없음, 극복으로 인한 재결함과 좌절로 인한 분리, 죽지 않음과 죽음, 총각만 죽음과 각시도 죽음’이라는 기준에 따라 ‘①원형’에서 ‘⑪동반 죽음형’으로 서사 유형이 다양하게 유형화 되는 것을 살펴보았다. 그리고 각각의 분기점 내에서 유형화된 이야기가 ‘강화와 일탈의 원리’로 분화 발전함을 살펴 볼 수 있었다. 그 결과 〈쌀바위〉 전설은 각 편의 변이가 크게 나타나지 않는 일반형 서사 구조의 특징이 나타나고, 〈우렁각시〉 설화는 각 편이 분기점에 의해 이야기가 달라지는 다양한 서사 구조가 나타남을 알 수 있었다. The story begins with “the simple Motif,” continues with “the simple story,” and changes into “a different story.” Based on these changes, we looked into the idea of “epic variation”. Starting with “the simple motif”, which means that it wants to have an endless supply of rice, it transforms into “the simple story” of the legend of “Rice Rock”. The tale of “the Mud Snail Bride” changes from a simple wish to live happily with the pretty bride to “the diverse narrative story.” It revolves around the legend of “Rice Rock” and the tale of “the Mud Snail Bride.” We examined the principle of these epic variations. In Chapter 2, it is based on more than 60 legends of “Rice Rock”. The main factors causing variation in the story were ① the background of the story, ② major characters, ③ how the amount of rice was produced, ⑤ the method, and ⑥ the result of the act of the study. Thus we investigated where variations occurred and why. Moreover they analyzed 41 tales of the “Mud Snail Bride” ① meeting place ② the storage place where people meet, ③ the transformation of the place where they are stored. Also, the tale of the “Mud Snail Bride” is changed by the junction of ‘The trial-Overcoming-Death’. The type of story is divided into the ‘① prototype ⑪ death’. In Chapter 3, we looked at the types of variations and their meanings. “Female Farmer A-rang” is more transformative than the legend of “Rice Rock”. There is a change in “the number of characters, frame composition, efficiency of tools, and the pursuit of economic productivity.” These factors lead to the epic changes. Moreover the 41 stories in the tale of the “Mud Snail Bride” have a narrative point. ① whether or not there is an ordeal, ② a decision made by overcoming obstacles, ④ separation from death to death, ⑤ death to death. Accordingly, various types of epic stories in ① ~ ⑪ are divided. The patterned story divides into ‘Principles of Reinforcement and Deviance’. As a result, the legend of “Rice Rock” features a ‘general epic structure’, with no significant variation on each side. The Tale of the “Mud Snail Bride” has many different epic structures in which the story varies.

인공 슬관절 전치환술 시 적절한 대퇴 치환물의 회전 정렬을 위한 원위 대퇴골과 경골의 해부학적 고찰

장종범 ( Chong Bum Chang ),성상철 ( Sang Cheol Seong ),이상훈 ( Sahng Hoon Lee ),이명철 ( Myung Chul Lee ) 대한슬관절학회 2010 대한슬관절학회지 Vol.22 No.1

Purpose: This study aimed 1) to identify the rotational axis of the femur that provides a balanced 90˚ flexion space in TKA, 2) to assess the changes in the flexion space in deep flexion, and 3) to assess the changes in rotational alignment, with using the posterior condylar axis (PCA) as a guide, and as the changes are related to asymmetric cartilage erosion of the posterior condyle. Materials and Methods: The axial MR images of the distal femur in knee extension and the coronal images of the distal femur and the entire tibia at 90 and 130˚ were examined in 40 healthy adults. Results: The clinical transepicondylar axis (TEA) provides a balanced 90˚ flexion space on average. The balanced flexion space in 90˚ became an asymmetrical space with relative narrowing of the medial side in 130˚. Every 1 mm of asymmetrical cartilage erosion between the posterior condyles changed the femoral rotation by approximately 1˚ when using the PCA as a guide. Conclusion: This study suggests that the clinical TEA is the rotational reference that provides a balanced flexion space. When using the PCA as a rotational reference, a surgeon should consider the potential change in the rotational angle that is caused by asymmetrical cartilage erosion.

ICT 산업분야 신생기업의 IPO 이후 인수합병과 산업 집중도에 관한 연구

장영봉(YoungBong Chang),권영옥(YoungOk Kwon) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2020 지능정보연구 Vol.26 No.3

Now, it is a stylized fact that a small number of technology firms such as Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and a few others have become larger and dominant players in an industry. Coupled with the rise of these leading firms, we have also observed that a large number of young firms have become an acquisition target in their early IPO stages. This indeed results in a sharp decline in the number of new entries in public exchanges although a series of policy reforms have been promulgated to foster competition through an increase in new entries. Given the observed industry trend in recent decades, a number of studies have reported increased concentration in most developed countries. However, it is less understood as to what caused an increase in industry concentration. In this paper, we uncover the mechanisms by which industries have become concentrated over the last decades by tracing the changes in industry concentration associated with a firm’s status change in its early IPO stages. To this end, we put emphasis on the case in which firms are acquired shortly after they went public. Especially, with the transition to digital-based economies, it is imperative for incumbent firms to adapt and keep pace with new ICT and related intelligent systems. For instance, after the acquisition of a young firm equipped with AI-based solutions, an incumbent firm may better respond to a change in customer taste and preference by integrating acquired AI solutions and analytics skills into multiple business processes. Accordingly, it is not unusual for young ICT firms become an attractive acquisition target. To examine the role of M&As involved with young firms in reshaping the level of industry concentration, we identify a firm’s status in early post-IPO stages over the sample periods spanning from 1990 to 2016 as follows: i) being delisted, ii) being standalone firms and iii) being acquired. According to our analysis, firms that have conducted IPO since 2000s have been acquired by incumbent firms at a relatively quicker time than those that did IPO in previous generations. We also show a greater acquisition rate for IPO firms in the ICT sector compared with their counterparts in other sectors. Our results based on multinomial logit models suggest that a large number of IPO firms have been acquired in their early post-IPO lives despite their financial soundness. Specifically, we show that IPO firms are likely to be acquired rather than be delisted due to financial distress in early IPO stages when they are more profitable, more mature or less leveraged. For those IPO firms with venture capital backup have also become an acquisition target more frequently. As a larger number of firms are acquired shortly after their IPO, our results show increased concentration. While providing limited evidence on the impact of large incumbent firms in explaining the change in industry concentration, our results show that the large firms’ effect on industry concentration are pronounced in the ICT sector. This result possibly captures the current trend that a few tech giants such as Alphabet, Apple and Facebook continue to increase their market share. In addition, compared with the acquisitions of non-ICT firms, the concentration impact of IPO firms in early stages becomes larger when ICT firms are acquired as a target. Our study makes new contributions. To our best knowledge, this is one of a few studies that link a firm’s post-IPO status to associated changes in industry concentration. Although some studies have addressed concentration issues, their primary focus was on market power or proprietary software. Contrast to earlier studies, we are able to uncover the mechanism by which industries have become concentrated by placing emphasis on M&As involving young IPO firms. Interestingly, the concentration impact of IPO firm acquisitions are magnified when a large incumbent firms are involved as an acquirer. This leads us to infer

우리 나라에 적합한 가구추계방법에 관한 연구

장영식(Young-Sik Chang),변용찬(Yong-Chan Byun),김유경(Yu-Kyung Kim) 한국인구학회 1998 한국인구학 Vol.21 No.1

장래의 가구변동은 인구의 규모와 구조에 영향을 미치는 출생ㆍ사망의 변동뿐만 아니라 가족에 대한 사회적인 가치관의 변화에서 오는 동거구조 등 가구 자체의 변동과 밀접한 관련이 있다. 이 논문의 목적은 기존의 국내외에서 적용되고 있는 여러 가지 가구추계방법을 검토한 후, 우리 나라에 가장 적합한 가구추계방법을 찾고 이를 적용해보는 데 있다. 추계방법의 선정에 있어서 주의해야 할 점은 우리 나라와 같이 급격한 사회변동을 겪을 경우 장래가구 추계시 사용되는 원자료가 심한 기복을 보이기 때문에 이를 감안하여야 한다는 점이다. 기존 추계방법의 검토 결과 우리 나라에 적합한 가구추계방법으로서 연령별로 이원화된 방법, 즉 가구주의 연령이 34세 이하에 대해서는 지수함수법을, 그리고 35세 이상에 대해서는 순천이율법이 가장 타당한 것으로 나타났으며, 이를 장래 가구추계에 적용해보았다. 그 결과 우리 나라의 가구규모는 1995년 12.956천 가구에서 2030년에는 54%가 증가한 20,006천 가구가 될 것으로 전망되며, 평균가구원수는 1995년 3.3명에서 2030년에는 2.5명 수준으로 낮아질 것으로 전망된다. 우리 나라 장래 가구형태는 1인가구의 급격한 증가와 3세대 이상의 다세대가구는 감소하는 특징을 보이고 있다. Change in the future household members is closely related to the change in the size and structure of the population which, in turn, is affected by factors of fertility and mortality and the household itself due to changing social values on family. This study aims to estimate the number of households and to thereby analyze the characteristics of household, using a household projection method chosen by reviewing various methods for Korea. In selecting the method of estimating households, the irregularity of the source data should be carefully taken into consideration with a society like the Korean society which' is changing rapidly. The review on the projection methods suggests the breakdown of the ages into two groups, namely 34 years old or less and 35 years old or more, for projecting the households for Korea. Thus, the Exponential Method for the former age group and the Net Transitional Method for the latter arc adopted in this study. As a result, the number of households is expected to increase from 12,956 thousand in 1995 to 20,006 thousand in 2030 or by 54% during this period. The average number of members per household will decrease from 3.3 persons in 1995 to 2.5 persons in 2030. One of the main features of change in the household structure will be a rapid increase in the number of one person households and a decrease in the number of households with three generations or more.

중ㆍ노년기 배우자 사별 전후의 사회적 관계망 변화에 대한 종단연구

장수지(Suj ie Chang) 한국노년학회 2011 한국노년학 Vol.31 No.4

본 연구의 목적은 배우자 사별 전후에 사별자가 제공받는 사회적 지지원의 변화, 즉 사회적 관계망의 구조적 및 기능적 측면의 변화에 대해 기술하고, 그 사회적 관계망 변화양상을 예측하기 위한 개인적 요인을 검토하는 것이다. 이를 위해 고령화연구패널조사 1차(2006년) 및 2차(2008년) 기본조사 자료를 활용하여, 1차 조사 이후에 배우자와 사별한 중ㆍ노년층 118명을 대상으로 1, 2차 조사 기간 동안에 개인이 보유, 경험한 사회적 관계망의 변화를 종단적으로 추적, 검토하였다. 구조적, 기능적 사회적 관계망은 동거자녀 유무, 자녀와의 지리적 근접성, 비동거 자녀와의 접촉 정도, 친밀한 인간관계 접촉 정도, 자녀로부터의 사회적 지지, 그 밖의 관계로부터의 사회적 지지로 측정하였다. 주요한 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전반적으로 사별 후에 근거리 거주 자녀, 자녀와의 접촉빈도, 자녀로부터의 지원이 증가한 것으로 나타나, 사별 직후의 사회적 관계망의 변화는 주로 자녀를 중심으로 강화됨을 알 수 있다. 둘째, 사별 전후 사회적 관계망 변화양상은 "전반적 증가형", "자녀중심 증가형", "자녀/친밀한 관계중심 증가형", "정체형"으로 유형화되었다. 셋째, 사별자의 건강상태가 사별 전후 사회적 관계망 변화를 예측하는데 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. The purpose of this study is to describe how the structural and functional features of social network change among widowed middle and older adults and to examine the effect of personal predictors of the social network change. Data was obtained from men and women between 45 to 98 years of age(N=118) who were bereaved by the death of their spouse since the first wave survey and participated in the second wave survey of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing(KLoSA). The main findings are as follows: First, their social network after the bereavement was strengthened centered around children; for example, the number of adult children living in proximity to the parent, frequency of contact with children, and the financial and non-financial support from children generally increased. Second, the social network change pattern was categorized into four types such as "overall increased type," "children-centered increased type," "children/close relationship-centered increased type," and "stagnation type." Finally, the health condition of the widowed middle and older adults was a strong predictor of the social network change.