경제위기와 한국의 무역경쟁력:1997년 외환위기와 2008년 금융위기의 비교

장민수 ( Min-soo Chang ),이순배 ( Sun Bae Lee ) 한국질서경제학회 2009 질서경제저널 Vol.12 No.2

7)ㅃ This paper looked into how Korean trade has been changing in the process of suffering two economic crises. The number of items to be analyzed was 159, ranging from SITC 5 to 8. They were measured in terms of the sum of imports and exports and balance of trade and then were compared to see how they differed in the process of two economic crises. Also, the 159 items to be analyzed were sorted again into 16 industries according to the properties of goods. Trade Specification Index(TSI) was measured for each industry, showing how they have changed in two economic crises. According to the result of the analysis, the way TSI of industrial products has changed since the mid-1990s was very similar to how won-dollar exchange rate has changed. In general, price competitiveness rises when the won-dollar exchange rate goes up. It then brings about trade surplus, which leads to the rise in TSI. The result of the comparison and analysis in this paper showed that the TSI rose more sharply in 1997 foreign exchange crisis than in 2008 global financial crisis. It is attributed to the effect of the rise in the foreign exchange rate. Another reason is that, amid the global financial crisis in 2008 when the world-wide depression was going on, Korean export suffered comparatively more than in 1997. The overall Korean trade competitiveness rose, though temporarily, while undergoing two economic crises. However, the monthly TSI which each industry shows in the two economic crises is inconsistent and shows such a wide range of fluctuation, which makes it hard to make a simple comparison. As such, only some unusual industries were mentioned in this paper. The classification of relevant industrial products according to the level of technology also showed that the 1997 crisis had a positive impact on the export competitiveness by and large, whereas there was not much influence in the case of the year 2008 except low-and-middle technology industry.

중학교에서 이미지 리터러시를 통한 디자인 교육

장민수(Chang Min-soo),김관배(Kim Kwan-Bae) 한국디자인학회 2004 한국디자인학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.- No.-

독일 공업화기 기업의 성격과 특징 - 18세기 말에서 1차세계대전 전까지 -

장민수 ( Min Soo Chang ) 경제사학회 1996 경제사학 Vol.21 No.-

공업화 심화기 (深化期) 독일 경제의 부상과 (浮上) 그 원인 - 독일과 영국의 비교 -

장민수 ( Min Soo Chang ) 경제사학회 1998 경제사학 Vol.24 No.-

본 논문은 1870-1914년, 독일이 영국을 추월하는 과정과 그 원인을 규명하고자 하였다. 독일 경제의 부상원인은 여러 가지가 있겠으나, 여기서는 기술혁신을 뒷받침하는 기업가활동, 교육시스템, 과학기술교육 그리고 독일의 보호관세정책과 카르텔형성의 영향 등을 중심으로 살펴보았다. 독일의 경제적 성과는 당시의 신산업분야에서 두드러지게 나타나고 있는데, 이는 독일의 학교교육 및 연구개발이 원활히 이루어졌을 뿐만 아니라, 특히 기업가 자신이 적극적으로 기술인력의 확충 및 기술혁신을 위해 전력을 기울인 결과였다. 19세기말 大不況期는 독일의 보호무역정책 및 카르텔형성이 역기능보다 순기능효과를 크게 함으로써 독일 기업의 경쟁력을 제고시키는 결과를 가져온 것으로 추정된다.

고령자 고용안정대책 - 적극적 노동시장 정책을 중심으로 -

장민수 ( Min-soo Chang ) 한국질서경제학회 2007 질서경제저널 Vol.10 No.2

The graying of Korea is progressing at a much faster pace than that of Western advanced countries, giving rise to problems in many fields. In the long term, the aging of employees is expected to slow down productivity and bring about the loss of labor force. Therefore, the government should come up with active measures for job security for the aged. The key content of active measures for job security for the aged is to improve mandatory retirement system or age-limit system. Improving age-limit system means extending retirement age. Considering that it is in actuality difficult to extend retirement age legally, the improvement would be to link part-time work system with salary peak system as a transitional way for extending the age limit and thus extend the period of employment for the aged. To extend age-limit does impose a financial burden on businesses, but is of help of the part of a country. Therefore, in case a business extends the age limit, the government can supply the business with part of early old-age pension or active old-age pension in the form of a subsidy, which will relieve the financial burden of the business and make it possible to extend the age limit. Businesses can choose full reemployment type, part-time work system or salary peak system when they make a contract with employees regarding extending the age limit. This is a way of modifying and applying appropriately to Korean environment the early retirement-related pension system which has already been adopted by advanced countries in Europe. When businesses enforce this system, they have the advantage of rehiring the skilled aged at wages that fit the productivity. The government can also have the effect of improving finances for pension.

한중일 국가간 완성차 및 자동차부품 무역의 경쟁력 분석

장민수 ( Min-soo Chang ) 한국질서경제학회 2008 질서경제저널 Vol.11 No.2

The analysis of Trade Specification Index (TSI) on buses and trucks was asymmetric, which made it difficult to draw a persuasive result. Similar problems occurred likewise in the analyses of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Intra-industry Trade(IIT). In the case of passenger cars, the trade specification index of Korea toward Japan decreased continuously from 0.5 in 1998 to almost -1 in 2006. Also, the deficit of trade balance toward Japan reached almost $400 million in 2006, which was attributed to the steady increase in the import of Japanese cars. Trade of car components shows a sharp increase in the trade specification index toward the world starting from 2002, which is seen to have occurred with a rapid increase of exports to other countries including the United States. The level of RCA of Japan was higher than that of Korea in the field of passenger cars in the Chinese market, signifying that Japanese cars are more competitive than Korean cars in the import market of China. In the case of car components, RCA of Korea toward China rose has sharply since 2002, showing a competitive advantage. The intra-industry trade of cars of Korea toward the world featured low quality vertical IIT, whereas the IIT of cars toward Japan showed an increase of horizontal IIT. Contrary to expectations, however, the IIT of cars of Japan toward China featured low quality vertical IIT, which is presumed to have been misrepresented due to statistical errors. The IIT of car components showed an increase over the IIT of cars in terms of the weight of high quality horizontal IIT in all areas including the trade toward the world, Japan, China. As was shown above, all cases except the IIT of cars toward Japan showed the results which have been expected in general.

한국 자동차 산업의 무역 경쟁력 분석

장민수 ( Min-soo Chang ) 한독경상학회 2017 경상논총 Vol.35 No.4

This paper did a statistical analysis of Inter-industry Trade and Intra-industry Trade on car and car parts (HSK 4~6 unit) in order to analyze trade competitiveness of Korea’s car industry. Trade Specialization Index and Grubel-Lloyd index were used for Inter-industry trade and Intra-industry, respectively. Trade Specification Index (TSI) of car and the whole car parts, which had been on the rise until the financial crisis was at a standstill since then and began to decrease since 2013. It is because the import of cars that is accounting for a big portion in the trade of car and car parts had jumped since 2013, making deficit widened. Among car, passenger car is showing a high competitiveness that is close to TSI 1, but it also has fallen a great deal since 2012. In addition, bus is showing trade competitiveness which is close to TSI 1. Truck and Truck parts increased sharply since 1990s and is still showing an upward trend since that time. The quantitative intra-industry trade of car and the general car parts decreased until the final crisis. It showed ups and downs before increasing since 2013. Although its IIT index is still low, it is showing a steady upward tendency. The reason for such a trend is found in the steady increase of car IIT which is taking up a big portion. Bus, freight car, and car parts are showing a standstill. The qualitative intra-industry trade of car and the general car parts shows LQVIIT (Low Quality Vertical Intra-industry Trade) that is at a standstill. There is almost no HQVIIT (High Quality Vertical Intra-industry Trade). It means that the trade of car and car parts have yet to be equipped with qualitative trade competitiveness that leads to the export of high-quality products and that there has just been the increase of amount of export in terms of quantity only. Notably, the price competitiveness that has increased since the financial crisis when the value of the won depreciated had a very significant influence on car parts rather than on mid-size cars.

한국과 독일의 산업별 비교우위 분석: 무역특화지수와 산업내 무역지수를 중심으로

장민수 ( Min Soo Chang ) 한독경상학회 2008 경상논총 Vol.26 No.3

This paper tried to analyze the change of comparative advantages in korean industry in trade with the World and Germany, using the Trade Specification Index measured to the 155 industries of 3 digit by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) in korean manufacturing field during 1991 and 2006. Trade Specification Index is strongly related to the Industrial Trade Index and has been a comparative advantages Index traditionally. Korean industry is categorized into five groups according to OECD-classification in view of the level of technology. Trade Specification Index in middle-upper technology industry in trade with the World and Germany has increased rapidly, but that in low technology industry has decreased rapidly. Especially Trade Specification Index in ship industry in trade with Germany has increased, but that in auto-mobil industry is decreased. On the other hand, this paper also tried to examine korean intra-industry trade by disentangling vertical from horizontal intra-industry trade in trade with the World and Germany, using the Grubel-Lloyd Index measured to the 155 industries of 3 digit by SITC in korean manufacturing field during 1991 and 2006. Korean intra-industry trade with the World and Germany has increased rapidly, but the index of korean intra-industry trade with Germany is much lower than with the World. Horizontal Trade Specification Index compared with Vertical Trade Specification Index is relatively lower in trade with Germany than with the World. This result implies that Germany is high- tech industry land in comparison with the World.

한국과 독일의 무역 경쟁력 분석

장민수 ( Min-soo Chang ) 한독경상학회 2016 경상논총 Vol.34 No.4

This paper tried to analyze the change of trade competitiveness in trade with the Germany, using the Trade Specification Index (TSI) and Intra-industry Trade (IIT) Index measured to the 159 industries of 3 digit by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) in korean industry during 1991 and 2015. TSI is strongly related to the Industrial Trade Index and has been a trade competitiveness traditionally. IIT are divided into the Vertical Trade and Horizontal Trade. Vertical IIT is divided into the High Quality Vertical Trade and Low Quality Vertical Trade. The High Quality Vertical Trade Index and Low Quality Vertical Trade Index measured to the 159 Items of 3 digit by SITC in trade between Korea and Germany The TSI in the above mentioned industry in trade with the Germany has not only fluctuated but also stagnated until 2010 and then has decreased rapidly after 2011. The cause of falling competitiveness is the decline of competitive of the information and communication and electronic equipment (ICT) Industry. The index of korean intra-industry trade with Germany is Increasing In the long run. 0.18 of IIT index in 1991 is increased to 0.38 in 2015. The automotive industry show the highest index of IIT and next the ICT industry. The index of horizontal IIT has increased a little but the vertical IIT not only fluctuated but also stagnated during 1991 to 2015. This result implies that the IIT between Korea and Germany is intensified in quantitative aspects but there is no change in the competitiveness to Germany in qualitative aspects. The trade competitiveness to Germany is strengthened since 2008 of financial crisis but has weakened since the beginning of 2011 in quantitative and qualitative aspects.

한중일 국가간 자동차산업의 경쟁력 분석

장민수 ( Min-soo Chang ) 한국질서경제학회 2013 질서경제저널 Vol.16 No.4

In the case of passenger cars, the trade specification index (TSI) of Korea toward the world is showing a weak but declining trend from 1998 up until 2012. The TSI toward Japan started from 0.5 in 1998 and is falling sharply to-0.958, indicating a comparatively big increase in the import of Japanese cars. In the case of buses and trucks, there is little change of index due to its small volume of trade. The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of passenger cars toward Japan was close to 0, which is showing the same trend as that of the TSI level. This is because we are importing Japanese cars unilaterally. The level of RCA of Japan was higher than that of Korea in the Chinese market, indicating that Japanese cars are still more competitive than Korean cars in the Chinese import market. The gap seems to have become bigger since 2006. The area of car components is maintaining its competitive edge after Korea’s sharp increase of RCA toward China since 2002. The intra-industry trade of cars of Korea toward the world showed an increase of horizontal Intra-industry Trade (IIT) from 2007 to 2009, and then has featured a low quality vertical IIT again since 2010. The IIT of cars toward Japan showed an increase of horizontal IIT. In the IIT of car components, the increasing trend was with the weight of comparatively high quality IIT and horizontal IIT in general. The trade competitiveness of automobile industry among Korea, China and Japan has not shown significant changes since the global financial crisis in 2008. This seems to be so because the main export market of cars and car components of these three countries is mainly America and Europe. Also, trade competitiveness of Korea has been declining in general since 2011, which is presumed to be the case because domestic businesses are expanding their overseas production and there have been production delays due to labor strikes, etc.