소상공인/지역기업 : 온누리상품권의 전통시장 활성화 효과 분석

임병인 ( Byung In Lim ),윤재형 ( Jai Hyung Yoon ) 한국중소기업학회 2015 중소기업연구 Vol.37 No.4

This paper investigates revitalization effects of Onnuri gift vouchers based on a survey. The survey produces that an introduction of Onnuri gift vouchers increases sales per day and the number of customers, from a perspective of sellers. Moreover, it shows that 28.04% of the increase in sales is attributable to the introduction of Onnuri gift voucher. The linear regression analysis shows that Onnuri gift voucher membership has a positive effect on sales per person and the average daily number of customers. Also both Logit and Probit model show that the existence of a merchant organization itself increases the possibility that the sellers become the Onnuri gift voucher member. As for users’ view, holders of Onnuri gift vouchers visit the traditional markets more often than the non-holders from the linear regression results. In conclusion, the Onnuri gift voucher is an important tool to help the traditional markets to increase their sales in the short run. These imply that the policy maker should strengthen both the lock-in effect of the Onnuri gift voucher and the image improvement policy for the traditional market simultaneously so as to enhance and keep its revitalization effect in the long run.

여성의 가족가치관과 결혼 및 출산의향

임병인 ( Lim Byung-in ),서혜림 ( Seo Hye-rim ) 한국보건사회연구원 2021 保健社會硏究 Vol.41 No.2

We examined if the values women have of marriage, childbirth, and gender role affect their intention to marry and to have children. For our analysis, we used logistic regression estimation and multiple regression on data from the 『National Survey on Fertility and Family Health and Welfare』 of 2015 and 2018. Empirical findings are as follows: first, both unmarried women’s intention to marry and married women’s intention to have an additional childbirth has declined to a statistically significant extent since 2015. Second, in both unmarried women and married women without children, being in employment positively affected the intention both to marry and to have a child. Among married women with children, being in employment did not affect the intention to have another child. Having a home of one’s own was associated with increased intention to have a child. Third, the more positive unmarried women were about family values in the traditional sense, the higher their intention to get married. Married women, however, appeared to have inconsistent and mixed values affecting their intention to give birth. Fourth, an increasing proportion of unmarried or married women were found to think that promoting marriage and childbirth should require the increased support from the government. In conclusion, effective policies for job security are needed for both unmarried women and married women without children. For married women with children, there is a need for strengthening on-going housing policies.

소득세 및 사회복지정책의 소득재분배효과: 한국과 미국의 비교

임병인(Byung In Lim) 한국재정학회(구 한국재정·공공경제학회) 2003 공공경제 Vol.8 No.2

본 연구는 『한국가구패널조사』에 Kakwani(1980, 1984)가 개발한 세후지니계수의 분해기법(Decomposition)을 적용하여 1993년부터 1998년까지 6년 동안 한국의 소득세 및 사회복지 지출의 재분배효과를 살펴본 뒤, 미국의 추정결과와 비교한 것이다. 실증분석결과, 미국의 평균소득세율과 이전소득비중, 그리고 소득세누진성지수는 한국에 비하여 높고, 이전소득의 역진성지수는 한국보다 낮은 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 미국 소득세의 누진성지수와 각 유형의 이전소득 역진성지수는 한국의 그것들에 비해 더 크게 세후지니계수의 %변화율을 개선시키는 것으로 나타났다. 실증분석결과는 한국의 소득세법을 개정하여 절대적으로 소득세부담을 높이고, 아울러 사회보장제도 확충을 통하여 지출규모를 증대시키는 노력이 필요함을 시사해 준다. This study has calculated the tax progressivity index, the average tax rate, the regressivity index of the transfer, and the proportion of the transfer to the pretax income for 1993-1998 to analyze the redistributive effect of them, and then compared the results of U.S.A. so as to find out the policy implications of the Korean income tax law and the transfer policy including the social safety net. Kakwani (1980, 1984) decomposition method is used in order to see which variables of them and how much have an influence on the percentage change of the after-tax Gini coefficient. According to these empirical measures, the redistributive effect of income tax and social security system of the Korea has been strikingly lower than that of U.S.A. in terms of the average tax rate, the proportion of the transfer to the pretax income, and the tax progressivity index. It means that these policy variables hasn't been well functioned as means for improving the income inequality in Korea. Also, the tax progressivity and the regressivity index of all kinds of the transfer in U.S.A. make the percentage change of the post-tax Gini coefficient improve more than in Korea. The empirical measures suggest that the Korean income tax law should be needed to revise, that is, the income taxes should be increased in the absolute terms to strengthen the redistributive effect of the law and also increase the amount of the payment of many transfers to meet the various social benefit systems.

5·31 교육개혁이 남녀 대학생 수에 미친 차별적 효과분석

임병인 ( Byung In Lim ),서혜림 ( Hye Rim Seo ) 한국경제통상학회 2021 경제연구 Vol.39 No.3

This study applies the 39 years time-series data(1980-2018) to the ARDL-UECM model, and estimates the long-term relationship if two educational policies, i.e., the university establishment rules and the early admission introduced by the 5.31 education reform, have an impact on the number of male and female university students. Empirical findings are as follows: first, the 5.31 education reform policy benefits female university students bigger than male students. Second, the less the number of households, the more the household income, the higher the number of both male and female university students, also meaning that these have greater impact on the number of female university students than male. It results from weakening the perception of preference for boys, a decrease in the number of children, and an increase in income. In these contexts, it can be said that both two policies and socio-economic changes are also beneficial to female university students, and further, the reason why women's university enrollment rate has increased rapidly since the late 1990s, overtaking male students’ rate in 2005 and then maintained those trends. In addition, we derive another following policy implication: more female students have entered the labor market since the 5.31 education reform than before, and thus led to the participation rate of women in economic activity higher, and then contributed to narrowing the gap between male and female’s participation rate.

중소기업/중견기업/소상공인/지역기업/사례 : 프랜차이즈, 자영업자의 활로인가?: 음식점 업종을 중심으로

김성태 ( Sung Tai Kim ),김명규 ( Myoung Kyu Kim ),임병인 ( Byung In Lim ) 한국중소기업학회 2014 중소기업연구 Vol.36 No.3

Recently, the number of self-employment has increased as the baby boomers who were born in 1955~1963 started to retire increasingly in Korea. The problem is such that the competitiveness of self-employment business does not go along with an increase in the number of businesses. Especially, the entry of a self-employed businessman into a franchise-typed entrepreneurship has increased rapidly. This paper analyzes the problem of self-employed businessmen who participate in franchise business in a restaurant industry in Korea, using the Economic Census data released by the Statistics Korea in 2011. We focus on the success possibility of self-employed businessman who entered the restaurant industry through franchising schemes. We estimated the sales functions and the profit functions for the nine substructural restaurant industries including Korean restaurant, Chinese restaurant, Japanese restaurant, Chicken specialized restaurant, etc. Main findings of our empirical analyses are as follows. First, other things being equal, joining in the franchising makes the sales of business entity increase. On the other hand, the franchise participation, other things being equal, makes the profit of it decrease. Therefore, franchise business may not be a good way out for self-employment business in restaurant industry in Korea.

주택관련대출의 가계소비 구축효과 분석

임병인 ( Byung In Lim ),강성호 ( Sung Ho Kang ) 보험연구원 2010 보험금융연구 Vol.21 No.1

본 연구는 한국은행에서 발표하는『가계신용 동향』자료를 6개 소비함수 추정식에 적용하여 주택관련대출(주택구입자금대출 및 주택담보대출)의 소비 파급효과를 분석한 것이다. 주요 추정결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, GDP변수는 종속변수와 모형에 무관하게 유의한 양(+)의 회귀계수를 보여주어 이론과 부합하였다. 둘째, 종속변수가 가계소비증가율인 경우, 대부분의 소비함수 추정모형에서 주택대출관련 변수가 (-)부호를 가지며 통계적으로 유의하게 추정되었다. 이는 어떤 유형의 가계대출이든지 전반적으로 가계소비를 줄이는 역할을 하고 있음을 보여준다. 셋째, 종속변수를 ln(가계소비)로 하여 추정한 결과에서 8.31 부동산투기억제 조치를 dummy로 처리한 변수가 모형과 무관하게 통계적으로 유의하게 양(+)의 계수 값으로 추정되었다. 이는 부동산 투기억제정책 발표 이후 주택담보 및 주택마련자금대출 감소로 이어졌고, 대출이자 부담을 전반적으로 감소시켜 가계소비를 증가시켰음을 보여준다. 본 연구에서 살펴본 주택관련 대출의 가계소비구축효과 분석결과는 부동산 투기 억제정책의 완화속도의 점검 필요성과 가계대출의 증가가 부동산에 집중되지 않도록 하는 방안 수립, 장기적으로 부동산거품 발생으로 인한 금융기관 부실 가능성과 차입가계의 파산으로 연결될 가능성, 그리고 대출이자 부담으로 인한 소비감소가 총 저축률을 하락시켜 잠재성장률을 떨어뜨릴 가능성에 대비하는 정책적인 접근이 필요함을 제시해주고 있다. Our study estimates whether mortgage loans crowd out household consumption by applying six types of consumption functions to 『Household Credit Trends』data released by the Bank of Korea. Major empirical findings are as follows. First, GDP has a positive and significant impact on the household consumption using two different dependent variables. Second, the mortgage loans have a negative and significant influence on the consumption in almost all consumption functions. It means that any type of the household borrowings might decrease the household consumption. Third, a dummy variable of the real-estate policy in August 31, 2005 has a positive and significant coefficient, implying that households have increased the consumption since the implementation of the policy. It is because the interest burden has reduced after that. These findings tell us the following policy implications: reconsidering the deregulation of real estate speculation policies, making a scheme to prevent excessive increase in mortgage loans, policies to decrease the possibilities of the bankruptcy of financial institutions and the households which have borrowings from them, and even a lower potential growth by reducing consumption from increasing interest payments.

소득유형별 지니계수 분해가법을 이용한 소득불평등 개선효과 분석

임병인(Byung In Lim) 한국재정학회(구 한국재정·공공경제학회) 2006 공공경제 Vol.11 No.2

  본 연구는 Podder and Tran-Nam(1991)과 Podder(1993)의 소득유형별 지니계수 분해 방법을 『도시가계조사』 및 『가계조사』 자료에 적용하여 조세와 사회보장부담금, 그리고 정부의 각종 사회보장정책 등 소득불평등을 결정하는 각종 유형의 소득이 전체 소득불평등도에 얼마나 영향을 미쳤는지를 정책 실시 전과 후로 구분하여 살펴보았다. 추정결과를 가처분소득 기준을 중심으로 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 근로소득이 전반적으로 가처분소득 기준 소득불평등도를 악화시키는 소득유형임이 밝혀졌다. 둘째, 아직까지 연금보다 사회보장수혜가 소득불평등도 개선에 더 효과적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 사적이전소득인 생활비보조의 소득불평등개선효과도 작지 않았다. 셋째, 소득세의 재분배효과 측정 결과는 소득세의 소득불평등 개선효과의 유무 또는 증감여부를 예측하는데 한계가 있음을 시사해준다. 넷째, 자동차세는 연도별 세율변경의 효과가 비교적 잘 나타났으며, 2002년 이후의 국민연금과 건강보험료는 가처분소득 기준 불평등도를 악화시켰다. 마지막으로 탄력성 추정결과에 따르면, 소득세, 생활비보조, 사회보장수혜, 일반기여금 순으로 가처분소득기준 소득불평등도를 개선시켜 사후적으로 양극화문제 해결에 어떤 정책수단이 효과적인가를 판단하게 해주었다.   This study has investigated how much various incomes-the labor income, the self-employed income, the wealth income, the transfer income including taxes, social security contributions-and the related policy have an impact on the income inequality with applying the disaggregation of the Gini coefficient in Podder and Tran-Nam(1991) and Podder(1993) to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of Korea. Several empirical findings based on the disposable income are as follows: first, the labor income generally deteriorated the overall inequality index. Second, so far the transfer income by the government is more effective than the pension. Also, the redistributive effect of the private transfer income by relatives is not too low. Third, it is said that income taxes have a limitation to predicting their effect on the income inequality. Fourth, automobile taxes show that the tax rate change has a highly favorable influence on the income inequality, while both the national pension contributions and the health insurance have shown the unfavorable redistributive effect since 2002. Finally, with the respect to the magnitude of the redistributive effect by elasticities measures, income taxes are the highest and are followed by the private transfer, the social security benefit by the government, and the general contributions. It makes us decide which policy variables are more effective in solving the income polarization problem in Korea.

경제환경의 변화가 소비에 미치는 영향

임병인(Byung-In Lim),윤재형(Jai-Hyung Yoon) 충남대학교 경영경제연구소 2017 경영경제연구 Vol.39 No.1

본 연구는 소비에 영향을 주는 환경적 요인으로 개방화, 산업포화도, 기술발전, 고령화 등을 제시하고, 이들의 영향력을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 공적분검정에 기반한 장기모형분석에서 다른 변수들에 비해 GDP가 소비에 미치는 영향이 가장 컸으며, 동시에 양(+)의 부호를 보였다. 개방화, 산업포화도, 고령화는 소비에 음(-)의 영향을 미쳤으나, 기술발전은 소비를 증가시키는 것으로 추정되었다. 오차수정모형에서 GDP성장률을 제외하고는 고령화가 소비에 상대적으로 가장 크게 영향을 주었다. 또한 개방화, 산업포화도, 고령화가 단기적으로도 소비에 부정적인 영향을 미쳤으나, 기술발전은 아직 소비를 증가시키는 요인으로 작용하고 있다. 이와 더불어 1997년 3분기가 구조변화의 시점으로 검정되었으며, 구조변화 이전에는 산업포화가 통계적으로 유의하였으나, 구조변화 이후에는 산업포화는 통계적으로 유의하지 못한 결과를 보였다. 반면 기술발전, 인구고령화는 통계적으로 유의하였다. 한편, 개방화, 고령화, 산업포화, 기술발전은 긍정적·부정적인 측면을 모두 가지고 있으며, 환경적 요인이어서 쉽게 해결할 수 있는 문제도 아니다. 따라서 소비부진문제를 해결하기 위해서는 분배정책 등과 같은 다양한 내수 안정화정책들이 필요하다고 사료된다. This paper represents an analysis on environmental determinants of consumption. We categorize environmental determinants of consumption as trade liberalization, market saturation, ageing population and technical progress. From a co-integration test among the consumption and its determinants, GDP has the strongest positive effect on consumption. Moreover the variables, trade liberalization, industry saturation, and ageing population can have a negative influence on the consumption, while the technical progress positively affects consumption. In addition, we reviewed a structural break; the third quarter of 1997 is estimated as a time of structural break. Before the structure break, industry saturation had a negative effect on consumption, while ageing population and technical progress were not statistically insignificant. After the structure break, industry saturation was not statistically insignificant while ageing population had a negative effect and technical progress has a positive impact on consumption. Theoretically and empirically, trade liberalization, market saturation, the ageing of a population and technical progress all have both positive and negative influences on consumption. Furthermore, it is difficult for us to control these variables because they are environmental factors. Accordingly, the problem of a consumption slump should be treated through sustainable and structural policy means, not short-term policy.

육아휴직·육아휴직 급여제도의 출생아 수 제고 효과 분석

임병인(Byung In Lim),이지민(Ji Min Lee) 한국경제연구학회 2020 한국경제연구 Vol.38 No.3

본 연구는 1970년부터 2019년까지 연간 시계열 자료를 자기회귀시차분포모형(ARDL)에 적용하여 대표적인 저출산 정책 중 육아휴직제도와 육아휴직 급여제도의 출생아 수 제고 효과를 실증하였다. 분석 결과, 첫째 1988년부터 시행된 육아휴직제도는 조출생률을 증가시키는 효과가 있음이 실증되었지만, 2001년부터 시행된 육아휴직급여 지급제도는 조출생률을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났지만 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 둘째, 여자대학생 수 비율이 증가할수록 조출생률은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 실질가계소득 변화율은 조출생률을 증가시키지만 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 이상의 분석 결과에서 현행 육아휴직제도를 더 길게, 더 많이 이용할 수 있도록 하거나, 출산과 육아 기간 사이의 기회비용을 충분히 보전할 수 있는 수준의 육아휴직급여 지급과 같은 정책방안이 필요하다는 시사점을 도출할 수 있다. This study estimates whether both a parental leave scheme and paternity leave allowances, two of on-going many policies for solving a low fertility rate, has a positive effect on increasing crude fertility rate with the annual time-series data for 1970~2019, using the ARDL(autoregressive distributed lag) model. Empirical results are as follows: first, the parental leave plan, which has implemented since 1988, had a positive effect on increasing it, but the payment of parental leave benefits, which has been paid since 2001, made it increase with no statistical significance. Second, the more the female graduate students rate the less crude fertility rate. On the contrary, the higher real income rate the higher the crude fertility rate with no statistical significance. Linking empirical results and status quo of two policies derive the following policy implications, i.e., various measures to make the current parental leave system longer, or use it more, and further both direct and indirect benefits to fully compensate for a pecuniary loss, i.e., opportunity costs, during a child-birth and child-care periods, should be required.

근로장려세제(EITC)의 소득재분배효과

임병인 ( Byung In Lim ) 한국경제통상학회 2012 경제연구 Vol.30 No.2

This study is to compare redistributive effects of two Korean EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit) systems, which are called an old-Korean EITC and a new Korean EITC to come into force on January 1, 2012, using 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey released by the National Statistical Office. Empirical results are as follows: first, beneficiaries of EITC will have been increased since 2012. Second, female household heads without children are expected to have an advantage under the new EITC schemes. Third, the new EITC has bigger redistributive effect of 5.73%, which is even higher than that of the income tax law, than 5.38% of the old one. These results says that the new Korean EITC benefits the working-poor, more female household heads and households with more children than the other types of households.