직직장암의 수술전 병기판정을 위한 경직장 초음파단층촬영술의 효용성

이헌경,김창남,김진천,정훈용,양석균,유창식,조문경 대한소화기내시경학회 1999 Clinical Endoscopy Vol.19 No.2

Background/Aims: The precise preoperative staging of rectal cancer is of great im-portance for the selection of an appropriate treatment. Endorectal ultrasonography (EUS) has been proven as an efficient tool for staging in rectal cancer. Moreover, its technical advancement has been enhancing resolution and applications. We evaluated the accuracy of preoperative staging using EUS in rectal cancer and examined whether staging by EUS was an efficient procedure. Methods: EUS was performed in 79 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed by colonoscopic biopsy from January to December, 1996. Endoscopic examina-tion was used with Olympus, GF-UM20 and Br?l and Kjaer type 2001 Scanner. The staging by EUS was based on UICC classification. Results: Preoperative staging by EUS was equal to pathologic staging in 70.9% (56/79) of cases. Overstaging was found in 17.7% (14/79) and downstaging in 11.4% (9/79). The prediction of lymph node metastases was accurate in 50 of 79 cases (63.3%). Conclusion: EUS seems to be an efficient diagnostic method to assess rectal cancer staging. More accurate imaging and further experience in the interpretation is needed to improve the efficacy of EUS.

집중분석 : 대북제재가 남북한에 미치는 파장

이헌경 평화문제연구소 1994 통일한국 Vol.125 No.-

시사초점 1 : 일본 핵무장 언제든 가능

이헌경 평화문제연구소 1994 통일한국 Vol.126 No.-

北韓崩壞論 : 중기적 정권유지와 장기적 체계붕괴

李憲京 명지대학교 사회과학연구소 1997 사회과학논총 Vol.13 No.1

세계화와 지역경제블록화에 대한 동북아시아 국가들의 대응 방안

이헌경 동아대학교 동아시아연구원 2011 동아시아 : 비교와 전망 Vol.10 No.2

본 논문은 세계화와 지역주의의 관점에서 그 현상과 추세를 전반적으로 분석하고, 세계화와 지역경제블록화를 극복하기 위한 발전적 대안을 제시하는데 중점을 두고 있다. 국제경제의 새로운 질서는 일방주의가 아닌 다자주의로 흐르고 있으며, 역내 경제협력을 우선적으로 생각하고 있다. 그리고 세계는 보다 상호의존적으로 되고 있다. 이러한 상황에서 세계의 많은 국가들은 지역경제블록화를 우선적으로 모색해 지역내의 경제협력을 극대화하려고 하는 반면 세계화를 추구해 범세계적 차원의 자유무역을 지향하기도 한다. 이는 경제이기주의와 지역경제블록화 현상 그리고 세계화에 따른 국가간 분업화와 세계지역화 추세를 보이면서 진행되고 있다. 이러한 세계지역화에 대비하기 위해 한·중·일은 경쟁력 있는 상품을 생산해야 하며, 내수 산업은 글로벌 경쟁력을 갖출 수 있도록 해야 한다. 또한 동북아시아 지역에서 통용될 수 있는 공동화폐를 만드는 것이 필요하다. 그리고 역내 경제협력을 효율적으로 추진해야 하며 타 경제블록과의 협력과 국제 공조 시스템 구축에 나서야 한다. This paper focuses on analyzing phenomenon and tendency in view of globalization and regional economic bloc, and suggesting constructive alternatives for overcoming the globalization and regional economic bloc. The new international economic order would go to multilateralism rather than unilateralism, and think preferentially intra economic cooperation. And the world tends to become more interdependent. Under this situation, many countries in the world would maximize the intra economic cooperation as groping preferentially for the regional economic bloc, whereas it intends to the free trade in pursuit of globalization at the world level. This goes on revealing economic egoism and phenomenon of regional economic bloc, and continuing the trend of globalization and regionalism as well as specialization between nations. Korea, China, and Japan have to produce competitive merchandises, and have the global competitiveness on enterprises producing commodities so as to prepare for the globalization and regional economic bloc. Besides, it is necessary to issue common currency that can use in Northeast Asia. And intra economic cooperation is to be gone on effectively, and international mutual assistance system and cooperation with other economic blocs.

북한의 대미 핵전략과 대안적 접근

이헌경 동아대학교 동아시아연구원 2005 동아시아 : 비교와 전망 Vol.4 No.-

본 논문은 북한의 대미 핵전략을 전반적으로 살펴보고 대안적 접근을 모색하는 데 있다. 이를 위해 북한의 핵개발 의도와 체제보장, 경제지원·협력 확보 등을 위한 전략에 대해 살펴보고, 북한의 핵전력을 핵개발 실태와 핵능력 분석을 통해 알아보고 있다. 그리고 핵포기와 체제보장 및 보상의 맞교환 전략, 협박과 군사적 위협, 핵실험 모호성 등의 북한의 핵게임 전략을 파악하고, 핵포기후 체제보장과 보상 등 북핵문제 해결을 위한 대안적 접근을 제시하고 있다. 북한은 한반도의 비핵화는 김일성의 유훈이며, 목표라 주장하고 한다. 그러나 북한은 핵개발을 체제수호,군사적 수단,협상 카드 등으로 활용하고자 한다. 그리고 북한은 미국과의 협상을 통해 심각한 식량난 및 경제난을 해소하고 이를 통해 국가생존 및 사회주의 체제를 존속시키겠다는 전략을 가지고 있다. 즉, ‘협상·실리전략’을 극대화해 목표를 달성하겠다는 것이다. 북한은 미국의 선 핵포기 입장이 확고한 만큼 북한은 이를 충분히 감안해야 한다. 그런데도 북한이 핵무기 추가제조, 핵실험, 핵물질 밀매와 같은 행위의 가능성을 위협의 수단으로 삼는다면 어떠한 결과도 얻지 못한 채 불신의 골만 더 깊어 질 것이다. 대안으로 북한은 핵을 포기하고 더 많은 것을 얻을 수 있는 방향으로 나아가야 한다. 북한이 핵을 포기하면 미국으로부터 불가침을 보장받고 이는 다시 6자회담 참가국으로부터 재보장될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 미국과 국제사회로부터 대규모 지원 및 경제적 혜택을 얻을 수 있고, 이를 통해 경제를 회생시킬 수 있을 것이다. 경제회생은 궁극적으로 체제를 안정시키는 데 기여할 것이다. 그런데도 북한이 핵개발을 가속화시킨다면 대북 압박이 가속화될 것이다. 따라서 북한의 전략은 모든 핵프로그램을 포기하고 실리를 최대한 챙기는 방향으로 나아가야 할 것이다. This paper is intended as an investigation of North Korea's nuclear strategy toward the US on the whole and groping for alternative approaches. For this, it is to consider strategies for North Korea's intention of nuclear development, regime guarantee, and acquiring economic assistance and cooperation, and to demonstrate its nuclear strength in terms of analyzing nuclear development realities and nuclear capability. It is also to focus on comprehending such a North Korea's nuclear game strategy as an exchange strategy of ‘nuclear abandonment and regime guarantee - compensation', menace and military threat, and an equivocal attitude in nuclear test, and to present alternative approaches for North Korea's nuclear solution. North Korea insists that denuclearization of Korean Peninsula is the instructions of Kim Il Sung and its goal. North Korea is, however, intended to make use of nuclear development in regime protection, military means, and negotiation card. In addition, it has strategies for maintaining national survival and socialist regime. That is, it is intended to reach the goal by means of maximizing its negotiation and profit strategy. North Korea should consider American firm position of first nuclear abandonment. In spite of that, if North Korea takes possible actions of additional nuclear production, nuclear test, nuclear materials smuggling as threat means, it can not get anything, and mistrust between US and DPRK will be deepened. As an alternative, it is suggested North Korea advances to give up its all nuclear program and get lots of profits. Provided the North gives up nuclear program, nonaggression from the US will be guaranteed and this will be done again by the six-party nations. Furthermore, North Korea can acquire massive assistance and economic benefit from an international society, and recover its domestic economy throughout them. The recovery of its economy will ultimately contribute on regime stability. Not with standing, if North Korea accelerates nuclear development, it will be under the pressure of the US. Thus, its strategy should go forward to obtain the maximum of profit with all nuclear abandonment.

Corresponding Steps and Further Approaches for North Korean Nuclear Solution through Application of Game Theory, Bargaining Theory, and Prospect Theory

이헌경 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2008 평화학연구 Vol.9 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to suggest corresponding steps and further approaches for dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons program through application of game theory, bargaining theory, and prospect theory. In pursuit of the Joint Statement, February agreement, and US-DPRK accord, some suggestions for North Korean nuclear denuclearization are as follows. First, North Korea has to allow verification measures to avoid a zero-sum game, as the US took the step of removing North Korea from the terrorism list. Second, North Korea has to fulfill its nuclear disablement, and the five nations of six-party talks should carry out economic aid to North Korea based on cooperation in economic, energy and humanitarian assistance in a non-zero sum game with the view of obtaining mutual gains. Third, North Korea should abandon all nuclear programs, and the participating nations in the six party-talks except the DPRK have to discuss, at an appropriate time, the subject of the provision of light water reactors to the DPRK for peaceful uses of nuclear energy rather than bombs, to reduce the possibility using of threats and brinkmanship towards each other. Fourth, there is a need to establish a security regime in the North for the purpose of guaranteeing North Korean security, inducing to forgo use of threats and violence, antagonism and confrontation, and instead engage in confidence-building measures. Fifth, the DPRK and the US have to take steps to normalize their relations to remove mistrust and hostility and promote reconciliation and cooperation. The purpose of this paper is to suggest corresponding steps and further approaches for dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons program through application of game theory, bargaining theory, and prospect theory. In pursuit of the Joint Statement, February agreement, and US-DPRK accord, some suggestions for North Korean nuclear denuclearization are as follows. First, North Korea has to allow verification measures to avoid a zero-sum game, as the US took the step of removing North Korea from the terrorism list. Second, North Korea has to fulfill its nuclear disablement, and the five nations of six-party talks should carry out economic aid to North Korea based on cooperation in economic, energy and humanitarian assistance in a non-zero sum game with the view of obtaining mutual gains. Third, North Korea should abandon all nuclear programs, and the participating nations in the six party-talks except the DPRK have to discuss, at an appropriate time, the subject of the provision of light water reactors to the DPRK for peaceful uses of nuclear energy rather than bombs, to reduce the possibility using of threats and brinkmanship towards each other. Fourth, there is a need to establish a security regime in the North for the purpose of guaranteeing North Korean security, inducing to forgo use of threats and violence, antagonism and confrontation, and instead engage in confidence-building measures. Fifth, the DPRK and the US have to take steps to normalize their relations to remove mistrust and hostility and promote reconciliation and cooperation.

North Korean Nuclear Armament and Perspective on Nuclear Domino in Northeast Asia

이헌경 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2013 평화학연구 Vol.14 No.2

North Korea had shown its nuclear capability through three nuclear tests. This threatens peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. When North Korea increases nuclear warheads with its miniaturization and has transportation measure, it is to intimidate neighboring countries directly, being under situation to be received nuclear horror and menace. If a nuclear-armed DPRK is not tolerable to Japan, a nuclear-armed Japan would be not likewise tolerable to its neighboring countries. The neighboring countries, which possess nuclear science and technology, under the logic of deterrence and mutual action may make progress nuclear armament in opposition to North Korean nuclear threat. It is neither desired nor happened. In order not to realize that possibility, international society should make efforts. Even though the US and PRC have been playing for the positive role with patience for North Korean nuclear nonproliferation, they have to contribute for North Korean nuclear abandonment. This is to keep the Non-Proliferation Treaty system and contribute to stop the nuclear domino in Northeast Asia.

UN Security Council’s Action against North Korean Nuclear and Missile Test

이헌경 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2011 평화학연구 Vol.12 No.2

The United Nations Security Council adopted not only Resolution 1695 against the North Korean missile test on July 5, 2006 as well as Resolution 1718 on October 9, 2006 and 1874 on June 12, 2009 against its nuclear tests. The Security Council also adopted a presidential statement against North Korea's long-range rocket launch on April 5, 2009. The Council’s endeavor has focused on restraining North Korea's provocative actions, and yet has not produced good results. However, its efforts should be continued not only to expedite and facilitate the process of solving North Korean missile and nuclear issues, as well as conflict resolution and arms talks between the two Koreas, but also to bring lasting peace and stability to the Korean Peninsula.

집중분석 : 김일성 사후 김정일체제의 변화전망

이헌경 평화문제연구소 1994 통일한국 Vol.122 No.-