초고순도 SiC 소재 기술 동향

이재득 한국세라믹학회 2011 세라미스트 Vol.14 No.5

파워 변동성과 불연속적인 일중 점프 및 일간 점프의 주기성에 대한 비모수적 추정

이재득 한국계량경제학회 2014 계량경제학보 Vol.25 No.1

This paper uses a new nonparametric realized volatility model by summing intraday squared returns to explain the discrete jumps and then estimates whether the jumps are significant or not according to derived jump statistics. In particular, this paper includes the periodicity filters of volatility and then analyzes and compares the recent realized discrete jump volatility of US SPC500 returns using the ultra-high frequency five minute returns spanning the period from January 2000 through September 2010 during which volatility was extremely large after year 2009. In the application to the US SPC500 stock price, the empirical estimates show that when we do not include the periodicity filters of volatility such as MAD, Short Half Scale and WSD using ROWV and ROWQ, the five minute returns have the jump probability that there is at least one significant jump per two or three days. When we consider the periodicity filters of volatility, the five minute returns of US SPC500 stock have a little bit smaller jump probabilities. When we include Max outlyingness in the jumps but do not include the filters such as MAD, Short Half Scale and WSD, the five minute returns of US SPC500 stock have the discrete jumps in five or six days. But when we include the volatility filters such as MAD, Short Half Scale and WSD they have the discrete jumps in nine or ten days during this the period from January 2000 through September 2010. 본 연구는 비모수적 실현 변동성 추정방법을 사용하여 2000년대 미국의 SPC500 주가지수의 불연속적인 점프의 존재와 그 점프의 유의성을 추정하였다. 특히 본 연구는 하루 5분 간격의 고빈도자료를 이용하여 효율적인 추정량을 얻기 위하여 ROWV와 ROWQ를 도입하고 여러 가지 변동성의 주기성 필터를 사용에 따른 점프 확률을 추정하고 비교하였다. 실증분석결과 변동성의 주기성 필터들인 MAD, Short Half Scale, WSD 들을 점프 통계량에 고려하지 아니 하였을 때는 5분간의 SPC500의 주가수익률은 적어도 2일 혹은 3일 만에 한 번씩 유의한 점프가 발생하였다. 그러나 변동성의 주기성 필터 들인 MAD, Short Half Scale, WSD 들을 점프 통계량에 고려하였을 때는 5분간의 SPC500의 주가수익률은 변동성의 주기성을 도입하지 않았을 때보다 좀 더 작은 점프 확률이 나타났다. 점프추정에 있어 Max outlyingness를 도입하였지만 MAD, Short Half Scale, WSD 등의 변동성 필터들을 고려하지 않았을 때는 5일 내지 6일 만에 한 번씩 불연속적인 점프가 발생하였다. 그러나 Max outlyingness를 도입하고 변동성 필터들을 고려하였을 때는 9일 내지 10일 만에 한 번씩 유의적인 불연속적인 점프가 발생하였다.

Linkages among Asian Stock Markets using a Vector Error Correction Model

이재득 한국계량경제학회 2015 계량경제학보 Vol.26 No.4

This paper analyses the degree of financial interdependence among Asia financial markets including Korea, Japan and China as well as ASEAN countries by dealing with the data through 2001~2013. The empirical results such as the cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model show that most countries respond significantly to shocks from other markets. In Asian Markets, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan had appreciable impacts on other markets and those shocks were transmitted to other markets for 1 or 2 months. Variances Decomposition shows that Most Asian stock markets are appreciably influenced by each other at every six month ahead, especially by China. Korea has appreciable impacts of its own Korean innovations at every six month ahead. By contrast, the impulse responses of China and Japan to the other Asian markets were relatively small.

Financial Market Integration of the EU pre- and post- global financial crisis

이재득,임우리 한국유럽학회 2013 유럽연구 Vol.31 No.1

Since the establishment of the EU and European single market, there have been successful initiatives and attempts to make the deepened economic integration and the monetary or financial union.The financial crisis of 2008 has, however, severely negative affected financial markets and economic activity in all advanced and global financial markets The global financial markets have been threatened by EU member’sdebt problems and EU member countries have started to rebalance positive macroeconomic signs from the global financial crisis in year 2008. This paper investigates the degree of financial interdependence and transmission process of stock markets among the EU regions using 11 EU stock markets from 2001 to 2011.. Thus, this paper analyses the degree of financial or stock markets interdependences or linkages comparing pre- and post- period of financial crisis in 2008 in the EU regions by dealing with the stock data through 2001~2011 mainly using the VAR and cointegration approach. The empirical results give several implications on the stock market interdependences among 11 EU countries. The degrees of the stock market integration or the financial integration are compared pre- and post- global financial crisis. General trend of the degree of financial or stock markets interdependences or linkages in the EU is similar in both post period of the financial crisis and that of pre-period. Yet the financial impact ofstock markets becomes little lower than before that of the crisis.

The Estimation of Spatial Heterogeneity Effects of the Determinants of Korea’s Official Development Assistance to Recipient Countries

이재득 국립부경대학교 글로벌지역학연구소 2024 Journal of Global and Area Studies(JGA) Vol.8 No.2

This study uses spatial heterogeneity regime models to analyze the allocation of Korea’s official development assistance (ODA) as the international financial aid to 55 recipient countries, and examines whether recipient countries’ level of democracy, distance from Korea, exports and imports, gross domestic product, global ODA, or global foreign direct investment have the spatial heterogeneity effects on the determinants of Korea’s ODAs to recipient countries. The empirical results show spatial dependence effects, and spatial heterogeneity across four regimes. Thus, the estimation of the determinants of Korea’s ODAs differs across Asia, Africa, Europe, America, and Oceania. Among the independent variables, the democracy level of recipient countries, distance from recipient countries, Korea’s export and import trade with ODA recipient countries, recipient countries’ GDP, and global ODA exhibited significant heterogeneity across regimes. Therefore, the spatial and spatial heterogeneity effects of the determinants of Korea’s ODA models are needed for more effective ODA policies.

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Korea’s Official Development Assistance Allocation Using Error Corrected Spatial Lag and Spatial Error Models

이재득 국립부경대학교 글로벌지역학연구소 2023 Journal of Global and Area Studies(JGA) Vol.7 No.4

This study used spatial models to analyze Korea’s official development assistance (ODA) allocation to 55 recipient countries in Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe, the Pacific, and Central America in the 2010s. The spatial lag model with spatial two-stage least squares estimators shows that the first-order spatially lagged dependent variable coefficient of Korea’s ODA to the ODA recipient was highly positive. The democracy level of ODA recipient countries and the world ODA of recipient countries positively influenced Korea’s ODA to recipient countries. However, the spatial error correction estimation of spatial lag and spatial error model shows that while the democracy level of the recipient countries is significant, the distance between Korea and the recipients, trade with recipients, recipients’ gross domestic product (GDP), world ODA, and foreign direct investment (FDI) to recipients does not significantly influence changes to Korea’s ODA in the short run.

An Empirical Analysis of US-Japan Trade Agreement on Welfare in ‘New’ and ‘New New’ Trade models of Monopolistic Competition and Firm Heterogeneity

이재득 부경대학교 글로벌지역학연구소 2022 Journal of Global and Area Studies(JGA) Vol.6 No.3

The perfectly competitive Armington’s model underestimates the welfare effects of the US–Japan Trade Agreement, whereas the monopolistically competitive Krugman "New" trade model will have positive scale effects. As trade begins in firm heterogeneity Melitz "New New" trade model, only the most competitive firms can survive. Although the Melitz model has negative variety and fixed cost effects, the larger positive technology and scale effects offset the negative effects. Thus, the total welfare gains in the Melitz (2003) model owing to production technology and scale effects are much larger than those in the Armington (1969) and Krugman (1979) models. The total welfare gains in the Melitz (2003) model are also larger than those in the Armington (1969) model because of the scale effect of the US–Japan Trade Agreement. Thus, the welfare effects depend on the economic structure of the free-trade agreement members. However, we need to adopt the more realistic Melitz "New New" trade model and Krugman "New"trade model than the standard conventional Armington model to analyze the more plausible economic effects of the US– Japan Trade Agreement.

부산의 중.일 무역구조와 수출경쟁력 비교분석

이재득 한국지역사회학회 2009 지역사회연구 Vol.17 No.-

Using the recent 2000-2007 trade statistical data. This paper shows that the Busan's Trade Intensity index with Japan is higher than Busan's Trade Intensity index with China and Busan's Trade Intensity index is more stable in Japan comparing with China in recent years. The intra-industry trade structure and comparative advantage of Busan's exports in Japan and China are different according to specific product even within the same industry. Busan does not have low quality vertical intra-industry trade structure except in other manufacture goods but has mainly high quality vertical intra-industry trade and horizontal intra-industry trade in most products in trading with China. Yet Busan has low quality vertical intra-industry trade as well as high quality vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade in trading with Japan. There are some changes in intra-industry trade structures, and the market comparative advantages in Japan and China have been declining over years 2000-2007. Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 부산무역의 단계별 특징 Ⅲ. 교역구조 분석모형 Ⅳ. 부산과 중국․일본의 산업내교역 분석 Ⅴ. 부산의 중국․일본시장에서의 비교우위 분석 VI. 결론

한국과 중국 간의 무역구조 분석

이재득 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2007 국제지역연구 Vol.16 No.2

In recent years China has become the largest trading partner of Korea contributing significantly to the Korean economy. This paper investigates the international trade structure between China and Korea using the trade statistical data of years 2001-2005. As a result of the international trade structure analysis between China and Korea, both countries influence and deepen each other's trade and economy. Several trade structure tests such as trade specialization test and intra-industry trade index show that Korea has specialized in the product of chemicals and related products. The Relative Market Intensity test and Contribution to Trade Balance index show that Korea's share of exports to Chinese imports is more than any other country and Korea has the favorable trade balance effect and large comparative advantage in the product of machinery and transport chemicals and related products. Thus, China and Korea need to enhance the economic and trade relationship through economic cooperation. 중국과 한국은 최근 2001년부터 5년 동안 각각의 수출의존계수를 약 2배 증가시키고 있으며 한국의 중국에 의한 수출의존계수는 중국의 한국에 대한 수출의존계수보다 약 3배 정도 높다. 중국에 대한 수출품 중 화학물 및 관련제품이 한국의 중국무역에 있어 수출특화하고 있는 주요한 품목이고, 중국과 한국의 산업내 무역지수를 분석한 결과 대체로 비식용원재료, 동식물 유지 및 왁스, 음료 및 담배, 광물성 연료, 윤활유 및 관련물질, 기계 및 운수장비의 산업내지수가 등은 높게 나왔다. 우리나라의 중국에 대한 상대적 시장집중도지수가 2000년대 들어 크게 증가하여 3보다 크게 나타났으며, 화학물 및 관련제품의 MRCA지수가 제일 높은 것으로 나타났지만 최근 우리나라는 중국시장에서 대부분의 제품에서 시장비교우위가 매년 조금씩 감소하고 있다. 대중국 CTB지수를 살펴보면 기계 및 운수장비 제품과 화학물 및 관련제품이 우리나라의 무역수지에 크게 기여하고 있다.

미국에 대한 한국의 교역패턴의 안정성과 변동 추정

이재득 한국산업경제학회 2009 산업경제연구 Vol.22 No.1

본 연구는 최근 2000년대의 한국의 대미국시장에 있어서 비교우위와 산업내무역을 중심으로 교역구조를 살펴보고 비교우위와 산업내무역지수의 안정성과 변동을 추정하고 분석하였다. 비교우위와 산업내무역의 정도는 대미국교역에 있어 산업내에서도 품목별로 많이 달랐다. 대칭적 교역지수들을 사용하여 추정한 결과 우리나라의 대 미국시장에 있어서 비교우위와 산업내무역의 패턴의 변동은 변동 효과보다 회귀효과가 더 강한 것으로 나타나 안정성을 가지고 있다. 또한 품목별로 비교우위와 산업내무역의 정도가 수렴화 현상을 보여 비교우위와 산업내무역이 높은 제품들은 각각 낮아지고 있으며 분포의 이산성도 각각 조금씩 줄어들고 있으며 우리나라 제품들의 미국시장에서 비교우위의 증가는 한국과 미국 간의 산업내무역의 정도를 증가시키고 있다. This paper investigates the structure and variation of international trade between U.S. and Korea using the recent 2001-2005 statistical data. The trade structure tests such as intra-industry trade indices and comparative advantage indices show that Korea has the high intra-industry trade indices in most products of machinery and transport and has comparative advantage indices in most products chemistry and related products. The intra-industry trade index and comparative advantage index appear to have overall stability and convergence properties using their symmetric indices. As a result of estimation tests, the regression effect is somewhat larger than mobility effect in intra-industry trade index and comparative advantage index. An increase in U.S. market comparative advantage seems to influence the trade structure and induce an increase in intra-industry trade index between Korea and U.S.