북한 김정은 정권의 국가목표와 군사정책 방향: 새로운 위협 요소의 등장과 한국의 대응전

이영종(Lee, Young-jong) 한국전략문제연구소 2020 전략연구 Vol.27 No.1

지난 2018년 초 대남 유화국면으로 급전환하며 대미협상을 주축으로 한 새로운 생존 전술을 구사하는 모습을 연출한 김정은 북한 국무위원장은 약 2년 만인 2019년 말 노동당 중앙위원회 제7기 5차 전원회의 개최를 계기로 다시 강경 노선 쪽으로 선회하며 “조·미 간의 교착 상태는 불가피하게 장기성을 띠게 되어있다”고 선언했다. 세계적 대유행 양상을 빚고 있는 신종 코로나바이러스(코로나19)는 대북 문제에 대한 관련국들의 집중력을 떨어트리고 있으며, 북한 또한 ‘셀프제재’로까지 불리는 사실상의 교류·교역 전면차단 조치를 취하면서 방역에 전력투구하고 있다. 이런 상황 속에서 북한이 향후 어떤 전술이나 전략을 앞세워 대남, 대미 정책을 펼쳐나갈지는 한반도와 주변 정세에 결정적 영향을 미칠 수 있는 변수가 될 수 있다. 하지만 2012년 김정은 체제 등장 이후에 북한의 핵 실험과 장거리 미사일 도발이 이어졌음에도 불구하고 이에 대한 면밀한 연구나 대응책 마련이 북한의 국가목표나 군사정책 차원에서 깊이 있게 다뤄지지 못한 측면이 있다. 김정은 집권 이후 통치노선이나 스타일에서 드러난 두드러진 특징 가운데 하나는 ‘국가’로서의 북한체제를 공식화하고 부각시키고 있다는 점이다. 김정은 스스로 ‘국무위원회 위원장’이란 직함을 사용하고, ‘조선인민군 최고사령관’이란 호칭 대신 ‘조선민주주의인민공화국 무력 최고사령관’으로 칭해지고 있는 점에서도 이를 확인할 수 있다. 김정은 체제는 대남 및 대미 외교와 경제·사회 등의 분야에서 이전과 다른 전향적 조치들을 취함으로써 변화와 개혁·개방에 대한 기대를 불러일으키기도 했으나 △당 국가 체제의 유지 △핵보유국 지위 굳히기 △경제·핵 병진 노선과 그 변용 △대미접근과 미국에 대한 이중적 인식 등에서 북한 체제의 국가목표 근간이 그대로 유지·고수되고 있음을 드러내고 있다고 볼 수 있다. 김정은 정권의 중요한 국가 목표 중 하나는 핵과 미사일의 완성을 기반으로 하는 한반도 적화통일이며, 군사정책도 이런 대목에 초점이 맞춰진 것이다. 북한의 이런 국가목표나 군사정책에 대한 우리의 정책적 대응은 △북핵 불용에 대한 공감대 형성과 대북압박 △사실상의 ‘핵보유국’ 북한에 대한 현실적 대응 △개혁ㆍ개방 및 국제무대 유인 등이 고려될 수 있다. North Korea"s policy in the midst of rapid changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula can have a major impact on inter-Korean relations and surrounding circumstances. The need for closer analysis on North Korea"s military policy directions, the nature of its national strategy as well as its nuclear weapon and missile has grown. The purpose of this article is to analyze the ultimate national goal and military policy direction pursued by the Kim Jong-un regime and to diagnose Korea"s counterstrategy. One of the prominent features of Kim Jong-un"s policy line after his inauguration was his emphasis on the North Korean regime as a “state”. The Kim Jong-un regime"s national goals and visions were presented concretely at the Labor Party"s 7th Labor Party Congress held in May 2016, setting a five-year strategic period for national economic development (2016-2020) and building a socialist economic power as a banner. Yet, more national goals and visions still remain undisclosed, considering most of them are often secretly established and promoted. North Korea"s appeasement toward South Korea and the United States since 2018 has changed the impression of the Kim Jong-un regime from an aggressive, provocative regime to open, reconciling and cooperation-oriented regime. However, North Korea showed no more than superficial and tactical gestures, failing to take fundamental actions like denuclearization. As military policy line of Kim Jong-un regime backed by nuclear missile weapon gets more sophisticated and belligerent, importance of South Korea"s countermeasures have grown. Strategic counteractions based on military power should be taken against North Korea’s two-sided strategy such as nuclear and missile provocations and unification frontline tactics. Furthermore, counter strategies that can closely analyze and cope with the United States and China’s policies refer to Korean Peninsula are nessesary.

수질관리 : 부남호 퇴적물 용출특성 연구

영종운 ( Jong Woon Yang ),오대민 ( Dae Min Oh ),구본우 ( Bon Woo Gu ),이영신 ( Young Shin Lee ) 한국물환경학회 ( 구 한국수질보전학회 ) 2009 공동 추계학술발표회 Vol.2009 No.-

항공 우주 해상 : 수도권 공용 헬기장 발전 방안에 관한 연구

이영종 ( Young Jong Lee ) 한국항행학회 2015 韓國航行學會論文誌 Vol.19 No.2

본 논문은 수도권 공용 잠실헬기장에 대한 효율적 활용 운영관리방안에 관한 연구이다. 우선 잠실 헬기장에 대한 일반 운영 및 시설을 파악하고 이에 대한 문제점을 제기 하였다. 그리고 , 잠실 헬기장과 같은 도심형 해외 헬기장 사례로 뉴욕과 텍사스(미국), 런던(영국) 에 대하여 예를 제시하여 잠실 헬기장과 비교 분석 하였다. 운영, 시설 설치 및 관리에 대하여 본 연구는 비행장 운영주체에 기준을 두어 그 대안을 제시하여, 그 주체로 하여금 운영시설 , 기반 시설 물론이며, 안전시설까지도 보강하는 기준 방안을 제시한다. 위치특성상 다른 국가와 달리 잠실헬기장은 인근에 군 공항 시설이 공존하고 있어 이에 대한 운영 관계와 비행로 안전 측면에 연구에서 제외했다. In this paper are This paper is about the efficient use operational management plan for the metropolitan public Jamsil heliport. First, understand the general operations and facilities to Jamsil heliport and raised the issue for them. And, in cases such as urban offshore heliport Jamsil heliport in New York and Texas (USA), for example, which was presented for comparative analysis and Jamsil heliport in London (UK). Operations, research is seen against a facility to install and manage a couple of airfield operations based on the subject by presenting the alternatives, thereby causing the principal operating facilities, infrastructure and security facilities even suggest ways to enhance the standards. Unlike other countries, Jamsil heliport location characteristics were excluded from the study on the safety aspects related to flight operations and for this I``m a military airport facilities coexist in the neighborhood.

발효 어성초(魚腥草) 물추출물의 마우스 대식세포 항염활성 연구

이영종 ( Young Jong Lee ),김선제 ( Seon Jae Kim ),한효상 ( Hyo Sang Han ) 대한본초학회 2010 大韓本草學會誌 Vol.25 No.3

Objectives: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of Fermented Houttuyniae Herba Water Extract (HL) on production of proinflammatory mediators in mouse macrophage RAW 264.7 cells. Methods: Cell viabilities were measured by MTT assay. Effect of HL on nitric oxide (NO) production from RAW 264.7 cells was accessed by Griess reagent assay. Effect of HL on productions of inflammatory cytokines such as interleukine (IL)-17, Interferon y-inducible protein (IP)-10, Eotaxin, IL-5, Monocyte Chemotactic Protein-3 (MCP-3), and IL-13 in LPS-induced RAW 264.7 cells was accessed by a multiplex bead array assay based on xMAP technology. Results: The results of the experiment are as follows. 1. Incubation with HL for 24 hours showed significant increase in cell viability of RAW 264.7 mouse macrophages (P<0.05). 2. HL showed to inhibit NO production from RAW 264.7 cells at the concentrations of 25 and 50ug/mL significantly (P<0.05). 3. HL inhibited significantly NO production in LPS-induced RAW 264.7 cells at the concentrations of 25, 50, 100 and 200ug/mL (P<0.05). 4. HL inhibited significantly IL-17, IP-10 and Eotaxin in LPS-induced RAW 264.7 cells at the concentrations of 25, 50, 100 and 200ug/mL (P<0.05). Conclusions: These results suggest that HL has anti-inflammatory moiety related with its inhibition of NO, IL-17, IP-10, and Eotaxin in macrophages.

목과(木瓜)가 장운동(腸運動)에 미치는 영향 연구

이영종 ( Young Jong Lee ),최영성 ( Young Seong Choi ),한효상 ( Hyo Sang Han ) 대한본초학회 2010 大韓本草學會誌 Vol.25 No.4

Objectives: This study was conducted to compare Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus with Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus, and to examine Fructus chaenomelis having an influence on Intestinal Motility. Methods: We compared Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus with Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus, by observing their effects on Intestinal Motility. Oral administration of water extracts of Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus and Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus into albino rats was followed by dealing with carbachol or loperamide, injecting charcoal meal and measuring the moving length in the intestine. Results: By Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus and Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus, the Intestinal Motility of normal albino rats did not change significantly. Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus and Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus controled the accelerated Intestinal Motility of albino rats. Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus was not different from the extracting method, Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus had effects of control on extracting by methanol significantly. When Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus was compared with Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus, the former was proved to have control effects on Intestinal Motility in decoction extracts and extracts by ethyl ether higher than the latter. By both Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus and Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus, the declined Intestinal Motility was not changed significantly. Conclusion: Chaenomelis Fructus suppressed the exasperated Intestinal Motility by carbachol, but did not influence the dropped Intestinal Motility by loperamide. In addition, Chaenomelis Sinensis Fructus was more excellent than Chaenomelis Lagenariae Fructus in its control effects of Intestinal Motility. inhibitory effects by DKT represent a potential therapeutic approach to the treatment of inflammatory diseases.

회향의 형태감별에 관한 연구

이영종 ( Young Jong Lee ),김정열 ( Chung Yuel Kim ) 대한본초학회 2004 大韓本草學會誌 Vol.19 No.3

감초의 형태 감별에 관한 연구

이영종 ( Young Jong Lee ),조진희 ( Jin Hee Jo ) 대한본초학회 2004 大韓本草學會誌 Vol.19 No.3

歸經論 硏究

李暎鍾(Lee, Young-jong),尹暢烈(Yoon, Chang-yeul) 대한한의학회 1989 대한한의학회지 Vol.10 No.1

천파석(穿破石)이 콜라겐유도 생쥐관절염에 미치는 억제효과

이영종 ( Young Jong Lee ),조영두 ( Young Du Cho ),한효상 ( Hyo Sang Han ) 대한본초학회 2010 大韓本草學會誌 Vol.25 No.4

Objectives: The present study was conducted to examine the effect of Cudraniae Tricuspidatae Radix(CTR), which is the radix part of Cudrania tricuspidata Bureau, on cytokine secretion from the joint cells and spleen cells of mice with arthritis induced by collagen and verify its efficacy against rheumatoid arthritis. Methods: Three kinds of extract were prepared from CTR through extraction with hot-water and ethanol. The levels of cytokine secreted from the cells were measured, after the mice knee joint cells were cultured with each extract. Results: The three kinds of extracts from CTR decreased the growth rate and levels of inflammatory cytokines such as IL-1b, IL-6, and TNF-a from knee joint cells of mice. All of the organic-soluble fraction, such as hexane, ethyl ether, ethyl acetate, butanol, and residual water-soluble fraction decreased the levels of IL-1b, TNF-a, IL-6, and IL-10. Conclusion: These results suggest that CTR had some effects on rheumatitis, with fat and water-solubles in organic solvent considered as the effective element.

소벽(小檗)의 간암 억제효과에 대한 연구

이영종 ( Young Jong Lee ),이충헌 ( Chung Heon Lee ),한효상 ( Hyo Sang Han ) 대한본초학회 2010 大韓本草學會誌 Vol.25 No.4

Objectives: This study purposed to research the inhibitory effect of Berberidis Ramulus on the liver cancer. Methods: A total extract of Berberidis Ramulus decoction were prepared. Through the measurement of the cell proliferation, apoptosis, morphology and cytokine level from the extracts, the influence on HepG2 cell were compared. Results: Berberidis Ramulus extract significantly inhibited the proliferation, increased the apoptosis, decreased the TGF-b gene expression and the K-RAS gene expression, significantly increased the level of TNF-a secretion and increased the rates of IFN-y secretory cells. Conclusion: It is suggested that Berberidis Ramulus extract turned out to have anti-cancer effects on HepG2 cell.