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박정윤(Jeong Yun Park),이미용(Mi Yong Lee) 한국경영학회 2003 經營學硏究 Vol.32 No.2
The objective of this study is to find a model to predict corporate bankruptcy using ethical variables such as reception expenses and welfare expenses and to examine the statistical significance of these ethical variables. The results using logistic regression revealed the following: (1) The ratio of reception expenses to sales and the rate of change in reception expenses between bankrupt firm sand nun-bankrupt firms were significantly different. (2) For bankrupt firms, in the year prior to bankruptcy, the rate of increase in reception expenses was higher than that in sales. (3) The ratio-of-welfare-expenses-to-sales variable was selected as an useful indicator in the bankruptcy prediction model. The predictive ability of the model for the estimation sample(1997-1998) and the validation sample(1999-3000) was about 97% and 86% respectively. These results imply that the higher the rate of expenditure of reception expenses and welfare expenses, the higher the probability of a corporation to go bankrupt, thus, ethical variables should be included in bankruptcy Prediction model.
박정윤(Jeong Yun Park),김영우(Young Woo Kim),이미용(Mi Yong Lee) 한국경영학회 2007 한국경영학회 통합학술발표논문집 Vol.2007 No.8
본 연구는 중소 제조기업의 부실화를 사전에 예측함으로써 기업의 지속가능경영을 실현하고 기업부실에 따른 사회적, 경제적 손실과 그 파급효과를 최소화하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 표본기업에 대한 t-검정과 로짓분석을 통해 부실예측모형을 추정하였다. 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, Logit 분석에 의해 추정된 부실예측모형의 추정용 표본에 대한 자체예측력은 67.7%, 검증용 표본에 대한 예측력은 67.6%로 나타났다. 이는 국내 상장기업을 대상으로 한 부실모형에 비해 예측력이 다소 미진하지만 1988년 신용보증기금이 중소 제조업종에 대해 평가한 예측력 66.6%와는 비슷한 수준이다. 둘째, 검정용 표본을 대상으로 실시한 모형의 예측력 검정결과는 66.6%로 추정용 표본에서의 예측력 67.7%과 거의 동일하게 나타나 본 부실예측모형의 객관적 예측력은 비교적 안정적인 것으로 보인다. 셋째, 본 연구를 통해 대부분 상장 대기업을 위주로 한 선행연구와는 달리 중소기업 고유의 부실예측변수가 채택될 수 있음을 보여 주었다. 청산가치율, 부가가치율 및 총자산증가율은 기존의 상장기업 부실예측 연구에서는 선정된 적이 없으나 본 연구에서는 부실예측변수로 선정되었다는 데 의의가 있다. 특히 총자산증가율은 기대부호가 예상과 반대로 나타났고 부실표본이 오히려 증가하는 특이한 현상이 발견되었다. The objective of this study is to find a model to predict small business bankruptcy using logit analysis. Logit analysis avoids the problems associated with multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), which has been the most popular technique for bankrupt studies. The initial sample is composed of 554 firms with 277 firms in each of the two groups. The bankrupt group are (1) the small firms classified as industrial that went bankrupt in the single year, or in 2003 (2) The firms which has received credit guarantee service by S-Fund, (3) the size of these firms was 1,000 million won and over but less than 7,000 million won in terms of asset and sales. Non-bankrupt firms was selected through a paired sampling method stratified by industry and size. They were still in existence in 2004. All the financial data have been obtained from the electronic center which belongs to the S-Fund. In order to test the efficiency of the model, secondary sample of 410 firms with 205 firms in each for bankrupt and non-bankrupt were chosen not used in the initial sample. Because of the large number of financial variables found to be significant indicators of corporate problems in past studies, a list of 32 variables is complied for evaluation. The variables are classified into six standard categories including liquidity, profitability, activity, productivity, growth, and cash flows. From the original 32 financial variables, four variables were selected as doing the best overall job together in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. They are as follows: Liquidation Value/Total Sales, Interest Expenses/Total Sales, Value Added/Total Sales, a growth rate in total assets. The signs of the three variables except X23 are the same as those as we expected. All the four variables have been significant at one or 5 % level of significance The predictive ability of the model for the estimation sample (2003) and the validation sample (2004) was about the same or 68%. This model can be used in evaluating whether or not to grant credit guarantee to small business firms that apply for.